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Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

Discussion in 'Physical & Life Sciences' started by greatcloudlives, Feb 16, 2020.

  1. greatcloudlives

    greatcloudlives Member

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    The Sun is the culprit behind the modern warming trend. The Sun has been at a high output for a long time and has baked the earth hence the reason for the world wide increase in temperature. We have not increased in temperature sence the year 2000 . The world wide temperature has been a steady two and a half degrees above normal for twenty years.

    This modern warming is only the latest in a long series of warming events in history. Before it was the Medival warm period and before that was the Roman warm period and before that was the Holocene maximum. These warming events happen every 1,500 years and are caused by the Sun. The good news is that the warming should stay the same for hundreds of years and nothing mankind does will change that. The Sun warming up two and a half degrees is good news for plants and animals which have a greater range of habitat and growing season.
     
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  2. Shemjaza

    Shemjaza Regular Member Supporter

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    Not consistent with the evidence. There's considerable evidence for a greenhouse effect coming from CO2 and other gasses. Just this time it's being released by us and not volcanoes or other natural sources.
     
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  3. Gene2memE

    Gene2memE Newbie

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    This isn't true at all.

    Current solar output is near previous recorded lows.

    Solar output has been trending downwards for the last 4 of the (11 year) cycles.


    According to NASA:

    The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century.​

    So, its wrong to say solar output is increasing, and its also wrong to attribute any warming to any increase in output.

    [​IMG]

    That's not true either.

    2016 was the warmest year on record, at about 1.02 degrees above the 1950 to 1980 average. 2019 was the second warmest year on record. Prior to that, 1998 was the second warmest year on record.

    Of the 20 warmest years recorded, 18 of them have occurred in the last 20 years. The two others were 1998 and 1997.


    Yep, climate changes. The difference between these previous change and the current ones are:
    The cause;
    The rate;
    The potential for positive feedback loops;

    Yes, and no.

    Increased solar activity was involved in all of these. However, so were Milankovitch cycles and Milankovitch forcing, periods of low volcanic activity and changes in major ocean currents thanks to the end run of the last glacial period, among others.

    It's not as if this has all been studied, not like it keeps cropping up in the IPCC reports for the last three decades or so:
    [​IMG]

    This latest round of warming, to quote IPCC 5, is "extremely likely (95-100% probability) that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950".

    Warming will definitely last decades, and if we halt emissions growth now, certainly centuries.
     
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  4. Quartermaine

    Quartermaine Well-Known Member

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    land and sea surface temperature monitoring by NASA, NOAA and MET office all show a significant increase in surface temperatures. in the decade 2000-2010 land and ocean surface temperatures increased 2 degrees from the last decade and since 2010 there has been an additional 2.4 degree rise in temperature. Both of these have been the largest temperature increases since the three agencies started monitoring surface temperatures. Since the year 2000 the earth's surface temperature has increase over 4 degrees.
     
  5. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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    True. But unless we stop all developing countries from developing, they will catch up with us releasing carbon. And there is no evidence that we will pass one law that reduces our current lifestyle. Not one.
     
  6. essentialsaltes

    essentialsaltes Stranger in a Strange Land

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    What a lovely OP. Claims that contradict obvious and well-known facts, and not even a link to a shred of support. Sure thing, 3-post dude, I'll take it under consideration.
     
  7. pitabread

    pitabread Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it's meant as satire of AGW-denialists?
     
  8. Shemjaza

    Shemjaza Regular Member Supporter

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    Stopping developing nations both futile and unfair.

    Regardless the developed nations learners long ago that they could offload the dangerous or contaminated necessaries if our cultures onto the less developed anyway.

    To have any chance we need to both develop new techniques and to force our nations and corporations to deal with the consequences of their behaviour.

    It won't be cheap, but while corporations love to claim that prices are non negotiable and must sky rocket, they need their consumers more then any particular company is needed by us.
     
  9. nChrist

    nChrist AKA: Tom - Saved By Grace Through Faith Supporter

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    God has something to say on this matter.

    Genesis 8:21-22 KJV And the LORD smelled a sweet savour; and the LORD said in his heart, I will not again curse the ground any more for man's sake; for the imagination of man's heart is evil from his youth; neither will I again smite any more every thing living, as I have done. 22 While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease.
     
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  10. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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    The earth receives over 6000 times as much solar power as we need
    so we will never run out of energy. Plus nuclear power could replace
    all fossil fuel power. So there will never be a problem with "Using up"
    our resources.

    There will be some expense converting to Solar but it should end up
    all being paid for in the end.

    How about converting all sidewalks to solar power producing walkways?
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2020
  11. Tanj

    Tanj Redefined comfortable middle class

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    I'll go out on a limb and say it's the reincarnation of the apparently expunged user, greatcloud. Who posted exactly the same stuff years ago.
     
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  12. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    Not necessarily. Our infrastructure is largely based on fossil fuels. With aid and guidance developing countries need not fall into that trap. We have to change and that will be expensive. They can start green and stay green.
     
  13. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    There are better ways. But at least it is a huge improvement over solar roadways.
     
  14. pitabread

    pitabread Well-Known Member

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    Nah, that's a horribly inefficient way to produce solar energy.

    A much better option is solar arrays on building roof tops, since they can be properly angled to receive maximum solar energy and won't have to deal with as much debris, damage, etc.
     
  15. Subduction Zone

    Subduction Zone Regular Member

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    I wonder if he got that idea from the failed "Solar Roadways". Someone had the brilliant idea of building a roadway using fragile solar cells under glass that is easily scratched to the point of becoming translucent. The failure rate was truly horrific for solar cells at a far from optimal angle.
     
  16. Shemjaza

    Shemjaza Regular Member Supporter

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    Oh, solar is excellent. But the transition will be slow and expensive.

    It's going to take incredible effort, and some sacrifice.
     
  17. Michael

    Michael Contributor Supporter

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    10:30 AM | *Now entering a deep solar minimum and the latest forecast for solar cycle 25 suggests it may be the weakest cycle in 200 years* — Perspecta Weather

    [​IMG]

    The good news is that your solar theory should be testable pretty soon. Solar cycle 24 was a pretty serious departure from previous solar cycles in terms of the total energy output of the sun at higher energy wavelengths, and in terms of sunspot activity. If the next cycle continues along the same path/trend, it should/or could result in a noticeable planetary cooling trend.

    I personally do believe that the global warming debate is oversimplified by *both* sides. It's entirely possible (highly likely IMO) that human activity is responsible for some measurable amount of global warming, and the sun also has an effect on global warming and global cooling trends. We might see global temperatures simply "plateau" for awhile as the sun cools off, yet that solar cooling is offset by increased levels of C02 in the atmosphere and man made global warming.

    1 million dead and US$38 billion lost: the price of China’s air pollution

    Even if one believes that total solar output needs to be factored into the climate model equations, there's no getting around the fact that the burning of fossil fuels also pollutes the atmosphere with carcinogenic by-products that reduce human lifespans. That issue alone should be enough to warrant a transition from our current reliance upon fossil fuels to "green"/renewable energy production technologies.
     
  18. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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  19. Shemjaza

    Shemjaza Regular Member Supporter

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    No arguments here... sadly the sacrifice is going to be a constant battle with some of the powerful, the greedy and the misled who are against change.
     
  20. grasping the after wind

    grasping the after wind That's grasping after the wind

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    Who decided what normal was?
     
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