Thoughts on an interesting scenario

[hislegacy]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

 

[hislegacy]

Trump Approval Rating Now Tied With Obama At Same Point In Presidency

President Trump can't get a break from negative press coverage, but somehow his approval rating continues to edge upward. In fact, it's now tied with where the "extremely popular" President Obama was at this point in his first term.

 

[Hammster]

Trump Approval Rating Now Tied With Obama At Same Point In Presidency

President Trump can't get a break from negative press coverage, but somehow his approval rating continues to edge upward. In fact, it's now tied with where the "extremely popular" President Obama was at this point in his first term.

That’s from June of last year.

 

[com7fy8]

President Trump can't get a break from negative press coverage, but somehow his approval rating continues to edge upward.

I get the impression that there are people who will accept and promote anything which comes up against Donald Trump. Their wanting it to be true is enough for them. But possibly, ones are starting to see how certain ones are not making a real effort to evaluate what is really true and which is not accurate.

Of course, I suspect we also have some pro-Donald Trump ones who are quite ok with make-believing things against anyone else. And I think ones are starting to learn how to notice when ones are doing this.

On either side > it seems to me > there are the ones who put stuff in our faces and put it above question, with no reliable way of knowing if what they are saying is true.

But I am not equipped to prove this which is only my impression.

But, even if there might be some amount of stuff a lot of us do not know how to evaluate > in the overall, who is getting the attention? I see there is a strategy to get attention, so others get as little mention as possible so ones don't know them enough to vote for them.

Ones might feel the press against Donald is too consistently not verified. Ones are making claims and "leaks", but enough is not panning out. But Donald got attention. And every now and then he talks in an even tone of voice, after letting ones say he is just loco and a gibberisher. Then they hear him say something plain and simple, and this contradicts how ones are saying he can't say a straight sentence.

That could be an interesting strategy > say a few dumb things until your opposition is claiming you are incapable of saying one straight thing; then switch to talking clearly so any kindergartner can be your spokesperson, and this can make the opposition look dumb > the opposition who is gullible enough to make a set statement about you.

By the way > my growing experience is every human is past finding out. So, if you try to turn Donald into a predictable guy, kindergarten weather forecasters will have more credibility than you will, more and more

 

[bèlla]

It will be a red day in 2020 because no liberal is getting my vote. And I'm not alone in that.

 

[HTacianas]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

Right now that is the likely outcome of 2020.

 

[whatbogsends]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

Job growth has continued to be good, but not better than it had been under Obama.

Unemployment trends continued as they had under Obama.

You've cited unemployment twice, as if it counts twice.

National debt rate increasing.

Stock market had it's worst years in last decade in 2018.

The border wall hasn't been built.

You're making a giant leap of faith regarding the Mueller report.

There is no evidence that North Korea has changed their course regarding nuclear proliferation.

*staff edit*

 

[DaisyDay]

However! At this point, 763 days into their terms, Donald is beating out Ronald at 42.5% vs 35.3%

How Popular Is Donald Trump?

Donald to Obama is 42.5% vs 48.2%, so not a win.

 

[Kenny'sID]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

Lets nor forget the massive cost in public assistance for those wheeling themselves around with both feet hanging out their mouth.

 

[mark46]

The trade balance with China cannot be balanced out by 2020, nor should it. But, China is likely to be a winning issue for Trump.
======
President Trump may very well win re-election.

It is very, very unlikely that the Republicans will re-take the House. Republicans would need to win back suburban districts and educated women voters. Trump and the Republicans will again choose between emphasizing the House and emphasizing the Senate. Republicans really, really want more conservative judges.

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

 

[Sparagmos]

Trump Approval Rating Now Tied With Obama At Same Point In Presidency

President Trump can't get a break from negative press coverage, but somehow his approval rating continues to edge upward. In fact, it's now tied with where the "extremely popular" President Obama was at this point in his first term.

Now that you know your post is not factually correct, will you be removing it or replacing the poll with a current one?

 

[Richard T]

"Since 1900, the number of Democratic second-term presidents whose party also controlled Congress. They are Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson.
3 -- Since 1900, the number of Republican second-term presidents whose party also controlled Congress. They are Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge and George W. Bush."
I looked up each of these GOP second term elections.
T. Roosevelt in 1904, the House and Senate gained in their already existing majorities.
C. Coolidge in 1924, the House and Senate gained in their already existing majorities.
G.W. Bush in 2004, The House and Senate gained in their already existing majorities.
It is noteworthy that both Roosevelt and Coolidge were incumbents because they took over for another President. G.W. Bush then the only one with a 2nd term as GOP on his own. None of these 3 examples flipped to a majority, though each had gains in the House and Senate. I am not saying it could not happen. Keeping the Senate too, could be a problem. More Republican Senators are up for re-election in 2020.

 

[KCfromNC]

However! At this point, 763 days into their terms, Donald is beating out Ronald at 42.5% vs 35.3%

How Popular Is Donald Trump?

Donald to Obama is 42.5% vs 48.2%, so not a win.

For some reason, it seems that Trump at the height of a roaring economy can barely match presidents during the middle of recessions. Weird how that's supposed to be good news and guarantee his reelection or something. I certainly wouldn't be bringing up how Trump is historically unpopular if I wanted to sell the idea that he's going to be reelected, but then again, it isn't as if there's much better to sell the idea with.

 

[hislegacy]

Now that you know your post is not factually correct, will you be removing it or replacing the poll with a current one?

My apologies for not checking the dates.

It is interesting however that a Presidencwith 90+% negative news coverage, being investigated etc etc. is still polling as well as he is.

After the SOTU one poll had him at 50%.

 

[KCfromNC]

My apologies for not checking the dates.

It is interesting however that a Presidencwith 90+% negative news coverage, being investigated etc etc. is still polling as well as he is.

After the SOTU one poll had him at 50%.

But the vast majority still show him as the least popular president since, what, at least WW2? I can't understand why this would be good news for Trump.

 

[TLK Valentine]

My apologies for not checking the dates.

It is interesting however that a Presidencwith 90+% negative news coverage, being investigated etc etc. is still polling as well as he is.

After the SOTU one poll had him at 50%.

When the base is conditioned to disregard the news, and believe nothing but what the President himself says, it's hardly surprising.

 

[TLK Valentine]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

It's a marvelous utopia, and I wish you the best of luck with it.

 

[cow451]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

all within the realm of possibilities

Along with the national debt growing because taxes collected aren’t covering the wealthy individual and corporate tax giveaway.

 

[cow451]

Lets nor forget the massive cost in public assistance for those wheeling themselves around with both feet hanging out their mouth.

Yes, those corporate welfare leeches are ugly.

 

[dgiharris]

Picture if you will the perfect storm.

Job creation at historic highs
Unemployment at historic lows
GDP higher than estimated
Unemployment among minorities at historic lows

I know GOP types hate to admit that Trump is riding the momentum from Obama, but perhaps data will help shed light on the subject

look at the trend from the mess Obama inherited from Bush to the Economy he handed off to Trump. So sorry, Trump doesn't get 100% of the credit for the state of the Economy just yet.
I will admit that the economy doing well is a nice feather in his cap, but it's not like he is the savior of the US Economy. What Obama did is way more impressive than what Trump has done to date. Now, that may change over the course of the next year, but it is too soon to start thumping your chest about Trump and the Economy.

then add

Mueller report with no actions against the president
The border wall being built
North Korea advancing towards denuclearization
Trade with China balanced out.

THis is where you are quite frankly delusional.
The Border wall "being built" is a definite point of contention. Trump is back tracking and back peddling as fast as he can on this whole wall business. This is actually Trump's area where he can go down in history as the President who solved our illegal immigration problem. However, he is going about it in the wrong way...

North Korea advancing towards Denuclearization is absolute insanity. Truth be told, NK is going to make a giant fool out of Trump. They outplayed the US on the whole thing and continue to do so. They got the US President to share the stage with their dictator as an equal, something that if Obama did the GOP would have screamed bloody murder about... but hey, since Trump did it, it is A-okay...

Trade with China "balancing out" is another pipe dream. I've argued this point until my fingers bled... A trade deficit in and of itself is NOT a bad thing. Trump and his supporters continually looking at Trade as a Football game and trying to win on the score board is the absolute wrong way to view trade. You need to take an Econ 101 course to understand why. but the cliff notes version is this: It doesn't matter what the Trade imbalance is as long as both sides benefit. It doesn't matter if country X gets more out of the trade deal then country Y. All that really matters is that both countries benefit from the trade deal. Of course there is more nuance to that, but that is it in a nutshell and you can prove it mathematically.

The Republicans re-taking the House in 2020.
The President being re elected.

This i'm not sure of, but I will admit it is possible.

If someone from the Trump administration could confiscate his Twitter account and prevent him from saying stupid things on air starting now and you couple that with a great economy in 2020 then I'd give Trump 65% odds to win in 2020...

However, he is his own worst enemy in this regard so no way he allows himself to be silenced, so he will continue to tweet insane rants and ramblings which turn the majority of us Independents off. So, I give Trump 50 / 50 odds of winning in 2020 "if" the economy is doing well. If the economy is doing "meh" or bad, I don't see Trump winning in 2020