The Democratic Safe House

[mark46]

My guess is that your ruby red county has considered some Democrats for Congress. The issue isn't that they are Republican; the issue is Warren as the Democratic candidate.
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To be clear, I believer that all but the most rural Republican counties and states would consider voting for Biden or Bloomberg.
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I well understand that majority of primary voters may end up voting nominating Sanders or Warren. As I listened to Michael Moore a couple of days ago, I better understand why Democrats want to nominee Bernie.

Here is an earlier speech

If I hadn't then the Warren bumper sticker on the back of my car would be rather awkward.

Which is to say yes, I have decided to support Warren.

Now to convince the rest of my ruby red county to do the same.

 

[Scholastica]

This place has elected the same Republican - Ken Calvert - since I was a toddler. Most of them haven't even heard of Warren. To them Biden is Swamp/Socialist/Whatever-attack they-saw-on-Facebook. Bloomberg is the guy with the ads, but he doesn't have the brand name recognition like he does on the east coast.

Our biggest issue is apathy. There actually are more registered Democrats here but the number who actually vote is minuscule, comparatively. Getting people to think their vote matters is the most important thing we Democrats can do in the Inland Empire right now.

Last year I was part of Julia Peacock's volunteer team for her Congressional run and she ran an unabashed progressive campaign and it was the closest we've ever come to winning this district. And we couldn't even afford TV ads.

There is reason to hope. I've found a good strategy for convincing people who are iffy on Democrats in general is to ask them about issues they're concerned with, the closer to home the better, stuff that affects them personally. I've presented Warren's ideas on the matter and more often than not, they were receptive. Then I reveal whose ideas I've been talking about. They might not be convinced to vote for her, but they do leave with a more favorable impression.

I'm not going to convince everyone, obviously. Nobody who takes Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson as gospel will open their ears to anything I have to say. But the folks who get their news from their Hannity loving uncle will now have someone who isn't poisoning them against Democrats to listen to.

Try it in your district with Biden. If we're a battle for the soul of America then every soul counts.

 

[mark46]

1) Your district has a minority of whites. I suspect that Democrats need to have strong leadership from Hispanics in order to succeed.

With regard to strategy, you might look to Orange County that elected Democrats in 2018. They are as ruby as than your district.

2) We have many, many who support Biden. He would likely take almost the Democratic delegates if the primary were held today. With regard to the general election, the major consists of evangelical Republicans. While post are strongly pro-Trump, many are more moderate. The more moderate have made their choice, the same as evangelicals throughout the country. They vote for Trump as long as he nominates conservative judges.

Biden would get some moderate Republican votes in 2020. Warren would get none, and would just get more conservatives to vote.
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In the end, we are a very Republican state. We were recently represented by a governor whose parents were born in India. We have a black senator. And, we have one of Biden's closest friend (well, until a year ago) as the other senator.

This place has elected the same Republican - Ken Calvert - since I was a toddler. Most of them haven't even heard of Warren. To them Biden is Swamp/Socialist/Whatever-attack they-saw-on-Facebook. Bloomberg is the guy with the ads, but he doesn't have the brand name recognition like he does on the east coast.

Our biggest issue is apathy. There actually are more registered Democrats here but the number who actually vote is minuscule, comparatively. Getting people to think their vote matters is the most important thing we Democrats can do in the Inland Empire right now.

Last year I was part of Julia Peacock's volunteer team for her Congressional run and she ran an unabashed progressive campaign and it was the closest we've ever come to winning this district. And we couldn't even afford TV ads.

There is reason to hope. I've found a good strategy for convincing people who are iffy on Democrats in general is to ask them about issues they're concerned with, the closer to home the better, stuff that affects them personally. I've presented Warren's ideas on the matter and more often than not, they were receptive. Then I reveal whose ideas I've been talking about. They might not be convinced to vote for her, but they do leave with a more favorable impression.

I'm not going to convince everyone, obviously. Nobody who takes Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson as gospel will open their ears to anything I have to say. But the folks who get their news from their Hannity loving uncle will now have someone who isn't poisoning them against Democrats to listen to.

Try it in your district with Biden. If we're a battle for the soul of America then every soul counts.

 

[GodLovesCats]

LOL Yes, it is always frustrating to see møst people support the big bad elephant.

Where do you live?

 

[Scholastica]

Context clues says South Carolina, which probably explains our cross coastal differences.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Context clues says South Carolina, which probably explains our cross coastal differences.

I can't see any context clues.

 

[Scholastica]

In the end, we are a very Republican state. We were recently represented by a governor whose parents were born in India. We have a black senator. And, we have one of Biden's closest friend (well, until a year ago) as the other senator.

These are the context clues. Only one state had an Indian governor, has a black senator, and has the other one as someone who was allegedly Biden's friend until it became politically inconvenient. That would be South Carolina.

Mark, I take it you're canvassing for Jaime Harrison. How is it looking over there?

 

[mark46]

I'm in my 70's (young for Democrats I suppose). I haven't actively canvassed in years, especially in primaries, other than president.

These are the context clues. Only one state had an Indian governor, has a black senator, and has the other one as someone who was allegedly Biden's friend until it became politically inconvenient. That would be South Carolina.

Mark, I take it you're canvassing for Jaime Harrison. How is it looking over there?

 

[mark46]

I checked on Harrison. He was within 7 in September. Graham was threatened by the president; he folded. He wanted to keep his seat and continue to work for the state (most here think that he is doing a good job of representing the state). Until the recent threat, he had opposed Trump on many occasions, more than almost any Republican.

After the weeks of impeachment activity in September, Harrison is now down by 23. There is no reason to believe that this will change.

These are the context clues. Only one state had an Indian governor, has a black senator, and has the other one as someone who was allegedly Biden's friend until it became politically inconvenient. That would be South Carolina.

Mark, I take it you're canvassing for Jaime Harrison. How is it looking over there?

 

[mark46]

As an aside, Biden and Graham have been friends for decades; their families are friends. Graham is unwilling to risk his Senate seat and openly oppose Trump. Perhaps, he will regret this, perhaps not. Graham will make no difference in the election of the president.

These are the context clues. Only one state had an Indian governor, has a black senator, and has the other one as someone who was allegedly Biden's friend until it became politically inconvenient. That would be South Carolina.

Mark, I take it you're canvassing for Jaime Harrison. How is it looking over there?

 

[Scholastica]

I'm in my 70's (young for Democrats I suppose). I

Heh.

Opposing Trump more than most Republicans is practically the prime example of damned by faint praise. He's voted with Trump 86% of the time and always on the most important issues. And I doubt that family friendship has survived now that Graham is actively targeting Biden's family to appease Trump.

Graham might not make a direct influence on the presidential election, but winning still only gives us a glass half full scenario if we don't take the Senate too. Wherever a seat is in play we need to fight for it. At the very least make the Republicans spend money in states they thought were safe.

Concerning your earlier post. I live in the Inland Empire now but take it from someone who was born and raised in the OC and lived there until 2017, that area was prime for flipping. Part of it had already been blue for some time. There's a lot of White Evangelicals and older conservative Hispanics, but also a lot on younger people, moderates, and growing Asian and Hispanic populations in addition to active Democrats. Our trick there was flipping some Republicans, mostly white women, and vastly increasing base turnout. I think Katie Porter tripled Democratic turnout to win her district. You should have seen the huge lines of people waiting to vote well into the night.

I agree that a greater focus on the Hispanic population is what we need to win in the 42nd. Unfortunately the success in OC is much harder to replicate in the IE. This is partly because Orange County is, well, Orange County. It was already proven winnable in 2016 when Clinton carried every almost every district there. The party spent a truckload of time, energy, and money to flip the Crooked 7. In contrast, the 42nd was essentially written off as too red to bother with. Which irked us on the ground, but I couldn't argue with the logic. OC is suburbs, young, diverse. Compared to that, the IE is older, whiter, rural - prime Republican territory. Even so we came closer than ever.

I get that living in a district or state almost assured to go Republican can be disheartening, but if we don't start now to try and change things, then they will never change. It's up to us, you and me, and everyone here to reach the people. That's the very essence of democracy.

 

[mark46]

a couple of thoughts

Yes, Democrats do indeed to go after every seat that is possible to win. However, priorities are also important. In the last election Steyer and Bloomberg did well in focusing on key house districts and turning lost of seats by that strategy.

The same is true in the Senate. This all has been made much more difficult because of the impeachment efforts.

I have an old school view of American politics. For me, the golden age of American politics was from 1980-2000. There were indeed many extremists. However, for the most part, the system worked because there those on both sides who worked together. I have no animosity for a conservative Republican who votes as conservative Republican. If we had a Democratic president, I think that some of the Republicans would work on compromises on many issues including health care, prescription prices, drugs, immigration and infrastructure. Of course, a lot depends on which Democratic president is elected.

Heh.

Opposing Trump more than most Republicans is practically the prime example of damned by faint praise. He's voted with Trump 86% of the time and always on the most important issues. And I doubt that family friendship has survived now that Graham is actively targeting Biden's family to appease Trump.

Graham might not make a direct influence on the presidential election, but winning still only gives us a glass half full scenario if we don't take the Senate too. Wherever a seat is in play we need to fight for it. At the very least make the Republicans spend money in states they thought were safe.

Concerning your earlier post. I live in the Inland Empire now but take it from someone who was born and raised in the OC and lived there until 2017, that area was prime for flipping. Part of it had already been blue for some time. There's a lot of White Evangelicals and older conservative Hispanics, but also a lot on younger people, moderates, and growing Asian and Hispanic populations in addition to active Democrats. Our trick there was flipping some Republicans, mostly white women, and vastly increasing base turnout. I think Katie Porter tripled Democratic turnout to win her district. You should have seen the huge lines of people waiting to vote well into the night.

I agree that a greater focus on the Hispanic population is what we need to win in the 42nd. Unfortunately the success in OC is much harder to replicate in the IE. This is partly because Orange County is, well, Orange County. It was already proven winnable in 2016 when Clinton carried every almost every district there. The party spent a truckload of time, energy, and money to flip the Crooked 7. In contrast, the 42nd was essentially written off as too red to bother with. Which irked us on the ground, but I couldn't argue with the logic. OC is suburbs, young, diverse. Compared to that, the IE is older, whiter, rural - prime Republican territory. Even so we came closer than ever.

I get that living in a district or state almost assured to go Republican can be disheartening, but if we don't start now to try and change things, then they will never change. It's up to us, you and me, and everyone here to reach the people. That's the very essence of democracy.

 

[Scholastica]

You make it sound as if all our efforts are dependent on a handful of billionaires. And that stopping Trump from rigging the election is bad.

I'd have more faith in Republicans being willing to work across the aisle if they weren't currently blocking over 400 bills from the House. Not voting them down, mind you, they're not even bringing them to the floor for debate. Biden has spent most of his campaign saying his ability to work with Republicans was one of his big pluses. And their response is to lie and smear him with what they know full well are bogus criminal investigations. That's what we got for extending our hands forward.

 

[mark46]

You seem to believe that since the current Republican Senate isn't passing Democratic legislation from the House, legislation that would be vetoed, that they will act the same if Biden is elected. I disagree.

Not only would any legislation passed be vetoed, Trump would also spend millions to primary those who stood against him.
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In a sense, I have sympathy for those who believe as you do. For you, you need a Democratic president, 60 Democratic senators and a House majority. Otherwise, nothing could get done, since Republican cooperation would be needed.

You make it sound as if all our efforts are dependent on a handful of billionaires. And that stopping Trump from rigging the election is bad.

I'd have more faith in Republicans being willing to work across the aisle if they weren't currently blocking over 400 bills from the House. Not voting them down, mind you, they're not even bringing them to the floor for debate. Biden has spent most of his campaign saying his ability to work with Republicans was one of his big pluses. And their response is to lie and smear him with what they know full well are bogus criminal investigations. That's what we got for extending our hands forward.

 

[mark46]

No, ALL of our efforts don't depend on billionaires. However, without the efforts of Bloomberg and Steyer in the 2018 election, the Republicans would have a clear majority. You also forget others like Soros who have backed the Democratic left for decades.

And who is it that is stopping Trump from rigging the election? Who is allowing him to rig the election? Certainly, you cannot mean the impeachment efforts that cannot win.

You make it sound as if all our efforts are dependent on a handful of billionaires. And that stopping Trump from rigging the election is bad.

 

[GodLovesCats]

These are the context clues. Only one state had an Indian governor, has a black senator, and has the other one as someone who was allegedly Biden's friend until it became politically inconvenient. That would be South Carolina.

Mark, I take it you're canvassing for Jaime Harrison. How is it looking over there?

I know absolutely nothing about those things. A context clue would be Lindsay Graham's state. Remember Ohioans don't learn South Carolina history.

 

[DaisyDay]

From the Borowitz Report:
Scientists: Earth Endangered by New Strain of Fact-Resistant Humans

The research, conducted by the University of Minnesota, identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientists at a loss as to how to combat them.

“These humans appear to have all the faculties necessary to receive and process information,” Davis Logsdon, one of the scientists who contributed to the study, said. “And yet, somehow, they have developed defenses that, for all intents and purposes, have rendered those faculties totally inactive.”

Huh. I've noticed it, too.

 

[FireDragon76]

I used to be pro-Buttigieg but ever since the assassination of Suleimani, I've been leaning towards Bernie Sanders. Sanders has the guts to speak the plain truth.

 

[Tigger45]

I used to be pro-Buttigieg but ever since the assassination of Suleimani, I've been leaning towards Bernie Sanders. Sanders has the guts to speak the plain truth.

Yep and I would be willing to predict Trump wouldn't show up to debate Bernie having spontaneously redeveloped bone spurs.

 

[Tigger45]

This is what consistent integrity looks like. Bernie's not just spouting empty promises, he's willing to go toe to toe.