The Corona Virus

[Jeff11]

Not everything that spreads the virus is that small.
Several real world checks suggest something larger, like 30%. That may not seem very dramatic, but with R around 1 it can make the difference between infections going up and down. The most recent study was an actual randomized controlled test. Largest study of masks yet details their importance in fighting Covid-19 It saw a decrease of 10%, but they only got people to increase mask use by 30%. They aren’t in a position to do a legal mandate.

Masks alone won’t stop Covid, but a combination of vaccination, masks and some degree of distancing can do a good job.

 

[Jeff11]

Incidentally, I agree that rates have peaked through most of the US. The difference is what the peak was. California is not the best, but is in the better half. Too many states have rates three time higher and full emergency rooms.

California has the 18th highest per capita infection rate. And the most cases of any state. That’s not the top half that’s the bottom half and it’s almost the bottom quarter. Like I have repeatedly said California has had the longest running mask mandate. If wearing them worked we wouldn’t have the 18th most per capital infection rate. States like Florida Texas etc. have dropped the mask mandate. The only reason that restaurants and gyms have opened at partial capacity is because the governor is fighting a recall. If the recall had not happened they would still be closed. He started opening things up because he knows people are upset and want him recalled.

 

[Jeff11]

You are covered by state rules and LA rules. The governor is responsible for State rules. Those call for unvaccinated people to mask indoors. That was put into effect July 28, per CDC recommendations, as Delta became more serious. Rules like that are effectively unenforceable, so places like LA have blanket mask requirements, but apparently not the State. So I think they are attributing your county rules to the State. I'm fairly sure that the State hasn't had capacity limits since June 15.

Previously, most restrictions ended June 15.That was around the time that vaccination had become effective. Perhaps it was a bit late, but episodes had gone up and down, and several states didn’t feel confident the decrease would stick until they had a lot of people vaccinated. NJ did it June 4, NY June 15.

It’s hard to see how the choice of June 15 or the reimposition of soft restrictions July 28 could have been the result of the recall campaign. I note that that campaign started in Feb 2020, before Covid had hit.

I think the main criticism one could make is that restrictions could have been ended earlier than June 15. Possibly as early as March 1. But that’s hindsight, and it’s really hard to know how much the decline by March 1 was affected by the rules.Holding off for vaccination was rational, even if you disagree.

The reason he started opening things up in June is because of the reality that thr recall campaign was going to get enough signatures and put it on the ballot. Until then he wasn’t taking it seriously. The states heavily Democratic he thought the recall wasn’t gonna happen.

 

[hedrick]

California has the 18th highest per capita infection rate. And the most cases of any state. That’s not the top half that’s the bottom half and it’s almost the bottom quarter. Like I have repeatedly said California has had the longest running mask mandate. If wearing them worked we wouldn’t have the 18th most per capital infection rate. States like Florida Texas etc. have dropped the mask mandate. The only reason that restaurants and gyms have opened at partial capacity is because the governor is fighting a recall. If the recall had not happened they would still be closed. He started opening things up because he knows people are upset and want him recalled.

The numbers are easy to check. I invite readers to do so.

I use NY Times, but since it's behind a paywall, here's alternatives:

For the whole epidemic: U.S. COVID-19 case rate by state | Statista
or United States COVID: 40,865,794 Cases and 666,559 Deaths - Worldometer

New cases: U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker
CDC: COVID Data Tracker
For the CDC page, to see the numbers you have to click on the thing below the map that gives you the chart, and then click on the cases to get it ranked by that rather than alphabetical.

 

[Jeff11]

23 new cases / 100,000 is actually pretty moderate currently. It's lower than the average for California (35) and US (48). South Carolina is highest, at 106.

 

[Jeff11]

You are covered by state rules and LA rules. The governor is responsible for State rules. Those call for unvaccinated people to mask indoors. That was put into effect July 28, per CDC recommendations, as Delta became more serious. Rules like that are effectively unenforceable, so places like LA have blanket mask requirements, but apparently not the State. So I think they are attributing your county rules to the State. I'm fairly sure that the State hasn't had capacity limits since June 15.

Previously, most restrictions ended June 15.That was around the time that vaccination had become effective. Perhaps it was a bit late, but episodes had gone up and down, and several states didn’t feel confident the decrease would stick until they had a lot of people vaccinated. NJ did it June 4, NY June 15.

It’s hard to see how the choice of June 15 or the reimposition of soft restrictions July 28 could have been the result of the recall campaign. I note that that campaign started in Feb 2020, before Covid had hit.

I think the main criticism one could make is that restrictions could have been ended earlier than June 15. Possibly as early as March 1. But that’s hindsight, and it’s really hard to know how much the decline by March 1 was affected by the rules.Holding off for vaccination was rational, even if you disagree.

June 15 was actually during a spike of Covid cases now why would you open things back up during a spike if you’re not responding to the recall?

 

[Jeff11]

 

[Jeff11]

 

[hedrick]

View attachment 305523

Those are raw numbers, not per capita. New case numbers are in the range of 12 to 107 per 100,000 per day.

 

[hedrick]

View attachment 305522

On the supposed spike June 15. First that’s data for LA, not CA. The governor is going to make decisions based on total CA numbers. Second, the blip is the result of a single day incredibly high number. You can see the number very high (around 4000) the first day of the blip. Look at the light blue vertical bar at the start of the period. The smoothed number is the average over several,days, so it stays high for the number of days that day is included in the average. Numbers that high are normally the result of an adjustment, when they find a set of cases from the past, and put them all in the day they find them, although in NJ, we've also seen periods when test results were delayed and a bunch came in at once. It’s not credible that there would be around 172 per day with one day of 4000. And even if it happened, one odd day would be unlikely to affect policy. You can see the same one-day spike in August, with the smoothed number up while it's in the average.

That day of 4000 cases doesn’t show in the current NY Times page for LA, but it starts June 9, which may be after the spike. I can't tell the exact days from your screenshot.

 

[Jeff11]

On the supposed spike June 15. First that’s data for LA, not CA. The governor is going to make decisions based on total CA numbers. Second, the blip is the result of a single day incredibly high number. You can see the number very high (around 4000) the first day of the blip. Look at the light blue vertical bar at the start of the period. The smoothed number is the average over several,days, so it stays high for the number of days that day is included in the average. Numbers that high are normally the result of an adjustment, when they find a set of cases from the past, and put them all in the day they find them, although in NJ, we've also seen periods when test results were delayed and a bunch came in at once. It’s not credible that there would be around 172 per day with one day of 4000. And even if it happened, one odd day would be unlikely to affect policy. You can see the same one-day spike in August, with the smoothed number up while it's in the average.

That day of 4000 cases doesn’t show in the current NY Times page for LA, but it starts June 9, which may be after the spike. I can't tell the exact days from your screenshot.

You are so obviously biased it’s difficult to have a discussion with you. It’s obvious from the graph that on June 15 or afterwards there was a huge spike in cases yet the governor did not shut everything down like you did during the two previous bikes showing on the graph. Why the difference this time? It’s obvious why the difference because he was fighting for his political life because he knew there was a recall election and he knew how unpopular his policies were.

From the graph there are three noticeable spikes. For the first two spikes he shut everything down. For the last one he didn’t. And there’s only one reason why he didn’t because he was going to be recalled.

 

[Jeff11]

Those are raw numbers, not per capita. New case numbers are in the range of 12 to 107 per 100,000 per day.

You were telling me that the state with the third highest seven day total Is doing better than half the country? The other states Texas and Florida for example are not forcing a mask policy yet California does and their totals are not any better than those states even worse for some. We could’ve dropped the mask policy and we would not of had any worse condition than those other states.

How many small businesses have permanently closed in Texas and Florida? There have been more small business closures in California than any other state. And for what? We still have one of the worst case totals

 

[Isilwen]

You are so obviously biased it’s difficult to have a discussion with you.

One could say the same for you.

Have you watched the video that I asked you to watch that I posted a couple of days ago?

 

[hedrick]

You were telling me that the state with the third highest seven day total Is doing better than half the country? The other states Texas and Florida for example are not forcing a mask policy yet California does and their totals are not any better than those states even worse for some. We could’ve dropped the mask policy and we would not of had any worse condition than those other states.

How many small businesses have permanently closed in Texas and Florida? There have been more small business closures in California than any other state. And for what? We still have one of the worst case totals

California is a big place. Of course its numbers are large. You want to look at per capita numbers.

 

[hedrick]

California is a big place. Of course its numbers are large. You want to look at per capita numbers.

It's hard to find business failure numbers. This is from June 2020:

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/SMALLBUSINESS-DEFAULTS/dgkvldjodvb/chart.png

Florida and Texas were the worst. I think you'll find that it is as much about the industry in that State than their Covid policy. Florida, for example, is highly dependent upon tourism.

I'd love to see more recent data if you have it. But it needs to be per capita or a fraction of total businesses. Otherwise CA is likely to be on top due to size.

Most states didn't close anything other than restaurants, gyms and similar, but during most of the epidemic many people would be reluctant to go there even if they are open. I suspect you'll find a wide variance is how much of the economy is based on that kind of business, and that failure and unemployment is due more to those differences than Covid policy.

 

[Jeff11]

It's hard to find business failure numbers. This is from June 2020:

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/SMALLBUSINESS-DEFAULTS/dgkvldjodvb/chart.png

Florida and Texas were the worst. I think you'll find that it is as much about the industry in that State than their Covid policy. Florida, for example, is highly dependent upon tourism.

I'd love to see more recent data if you have it. But it needs to be per capita or a fraction of total businesses. Otherwise CA is likely to be on top due to size.

Most states didn't close anything other than restaurants, gyms and similar, but during most of the epidemic many people would be reluctant to go there even if they are open. I suspect you'll find a wide variance is how much of the economy is based on that kind of business, and that failure and unemployment is due more to those differences than Covid policy.

 

[Jeff11]

One could say the same for you.

Have you watched the video that I asked you to watch that I posted a couple of days ago?

I thought you would be interested in this story I found on MSN: Ohio judge reverses colleague’s decision on covid patient’s ivermectin treatment: ‘Judges are not doctors’ Ohio judge reverses colleague’s decision on covid patient’s ivermectin treatment: ‘Judges are not doctors’

 

[Jeff11]

It's hard to find business failure numbers. This is from June 2020:

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/SMALLBUSINESS-DEFAULTS/dgkvldjodvb/chart.png

Florida and Texas were the worst. I think you'll find that it is as much about the industry in that State than their Covid policy. Florida, for example, is highly dependent upon tourism.

I'd love to see more recent data if you have it. But it needs to be per capita or a fraction of total businesses. Otherwise CA is likely to be on top due to size.

Most states didn't close anything other than restaurants, gyms and similar, but during most of the epidemic many people would be reluctant to go there even if they are open. I suspect you'll find a wide variance is how much of the economy is based on that kind of business, and that failure and unemployment is due more to those differences than Covid policy.

Los Angeles Loses Most Small Businesses in the US During Pandemic

 

[Jeff11]

It's hard to find business failure numbers. This is from June 2020:

https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/SMALLBUSINESS-DEFAULTS/dgkvldjodvb/chart.png

Florida and Texas were the worst. I think you'll find that it is as much about the industry in that State than their Covid policy. Florida, for example, is highly dependent upon tourism.

I'd love to see more recent data if you have it. But it needs to be per capita or a fraction of total businesses. Otherwise CA is likely to be on top due to size.

Most states didn't close anything other than restaurants, gyms and similar, but during most of the epidemic many people would be reluctant to go there even if they are open. I suspect you'll find a wide variance is how much of the economy is based on that kind of business, and that failure and unemployment is due more to those differences than Covid policy.

A recent Yelp economic report listed Los Angeles as the U.S. city with the most business closures since the pandemic started. The report revealed there have been 15,000 business closures across Los Angeles County, with half of those expected to be permanent.

The CEO of the L.A. Economic Development Corporation, Bill Allen, tells Inside the Issueswhy Southern California is a hotspot for small business losses.