The Ukrainians used the Southern offensive around Kherson as a way to draw in Russia's best troops. Meanwhile, they just reclaimed 9000 km2 of Russian territory in the North. This seems to have forced Putin to redefine this as a war so that he can order a general mobilization. He is doing this by arranging referendums to annex the territories he has seized. When they are a part of Russia, attacks on them become attacks on Russian sovereign territory. Then the "special operation" becomes a war and a general mobilization and even the use of nukes becomes possible.
My feeling is that not even this will save him. There are doubts that even 300000 more troops will be enough against the Ukrainian army that is now emerging and demonstrating its worth in the North. Militarily on such a large, extended front, the use of tactical nukes may not be that effective and in fact may alienate India and China on whom his future trade strategy depends. Even if he continues to hold the West bank of the Dnieper then it will only be at immense cost and at the risk of losing many of his troops there and elsewhere. This investment allows the Ukrainians to launch attacks on the weakest parts of what is an increasingly extended front.
In the beginning, I believed the Russians would be more successful than they have been in practice and especially in the North. As time passes the competence and capabilities of the Ukrainians are increasing exponentially while those of Russia are eroding.
Putin would be wise to call it quits now as he will only lose men and territory as time passes and maybe also the favor of India and China who are not as supportive of his agenda as perhaps he hoped because of the potential costs to themselves of a prolonged war. But I still doubt Ukraine can win this by military means and expel the Russians completely from Crimea and Donbas for instance. This is still heading for a draw. But it remains open: how long it will take, how many lives it will cost and where they will draw the ceasefire lines.
