Should Ukraine invade Russia?

[eider]

Norway is already a member of NATO and was one of the founding members

Thank you for that point. Let's hope that all it's neighbours will soon be members as well.

 

[mindlight]

The Ukrainians seem to have settled on a tactic of asymmetric warfare designed to maximize the cost to the Russians in the occupied territories, to take out collaborators behind the lines and this even includes attacks on ammo dumps in Russia. Thus they weaken the capacity of Russia to maintain control and continue offensive operations. New equipment from NATO now also gives opportunities for surgical strikes though these are likely to stay inside the borders of Ukraine.

 

[chevyontheriver]

IMO, Ukraine should seize areas that have banks with gold and silver, and they should take that gold and silver as compensation for all the costs that Russia has burdened them with in this war.

What if Ukraine invaded Russia ... and WON? I mean, the Russian military has been pretty incompetent so far. What would a victorious Ukraine do with a conquered Russia?

 

[Landon Caeli]

What if Ukraine invaded Russia ... and WON? I mean, the Russian military has been pretty incompetent so far. What would a victorious Ukraine do with a conquered Russia?

Just imagine... What if Russia, under Ukrainian rule, became a Western ally. Imagine a United Europe, how wonderful that would be for trade, migration, resettlement, and the future.

It would be a Godsend.

 

[Landon Caeli]

3/4 of the entire Northern Hemisphere... Friends. Wow.

 

[Nithavela]

Just imagine... What if Russia, under Ukrainian rule, became a Western ally. Imagine a United Europe, how wonderful that would be for trade, migration, resettlement, and the future.

It would be a Godsend.

People on this forum would probably call it a sign of the apocalypse and ruled by the antichrist or something.

 

[Halbhh]

The Ukrainians seem to have settled on a tactic of asymmetric warfare designed to maximize the cost to the Russians in the occupied territories, to take out collaborators behind the lines and this even includes attacks on ammo dumps in Russia. Thus they weaken the capacity of Russia to maintain control and continue offensive operations. New equipment from NATO now also gives opportunities for surgical strikes though these are likely to stay inside the borders of Ukraine.

Yes, and of course those are classic tactics, so that we would think the inferior force of Ukraine would have to use, so it makes sense that military advisers and the clearly smart leadership of their military would use those.

But, in my view, the most key thing though was instead that the Ukrainian people though are very overwhelmingly unified in being opposed to Russian control (unlike the divided competing forces that often are in many nations, like we saw some in in Iraq for instance. Ukraine is much more united), and they have a certain feeling of ability -- they believe they can do things.

I wonder if now you see how it looks certain to me, as I wrote to you before that Russia cannot hold the territory? Does it look different to you now than when you wrote the OP?

 

[Landon Caeli]

Imagine this too; A united Northern Hemisphere with a massive solar project at the north pole, where during summer months, where light is at it's fullest, electricity could be produced in an enormous way.

...The possibilities for *working together* are so much better than working against each other. And it promotes creativity.

 

[Desk trauma]

Just imagine..

How likely nuclear war would be if a nuclear power is invaded and is loosing.

 

[Landon Caeli]

How likely nuclear war would be if a nuclear power is invaded and is loosing.

I'd rather not imagine that. That's one of my biggest flaws in life, I tend to neglect the negative.

 

[mindlight]

What if Ukraine invaded Russia ... and WON? I mean, the Russian military has been pretty incompetent so far. What would a victorious Ukraine do with a conquered Russia?

Russia is still fighting this war with one arm behind its back. There is no question of its being conquered as it would simply nuke Ukraine if things got even near to that.

Also, they still have not ordered a general mobilization which would bring massive quantitative improvement to their force level including fleshing out armed units currently unsupported by appropriate infantry cover.

The only way that Ukraine wins this is by wearing down the Russian resolve. If they make it too costly for Russia to continue the fight they may give up and then a diplomatic solution is possible. But even this strategy depends on Putin giving up or dying. When has he ever backed down and how likely is it that he will be killed or die of natural causes in the next five years? He has control of the Russian media and state and the army have no appetite for losing this war. So I think he is in this for the long haul.

Zelensky is also bound by the expectations of his people however unrealistic of a total recapture of their lands and cannot concede land for peace. So this is a war of attrition that will just carry on. The Americans and British see an opportunity in such a protracted engagement to bleed Russia dry and to finish it as a world power for a generation. This is the most likely strategy to succeed however long the war goes on, so long as Russia does not win it of course.

 

[mindlight]

Yes, and of course those are classic tactics, so that we would think the inferior force of Ukraine would have to use, so it makes sense that military advisers and the clearly smart leadership of their military would use those.

But, in my view, the most key thing though was instead that the Ukrainian people though are very overwhelmingly unified in being opposed to Russian control (unlike the divided competing forces that often are in many nations, like we saw some in in Iraq for instance. Ukraine is much more united), and they have a certain feeling of ability -- they believe they can do things.

I wonder if now you see how it looks certain to me, as I wrote to you before that Russia cannot hold the territory? Does it look different to you now than when you wrote the OP?

A divided Ukraine is the most likely outcome of this war after a long protracted war of attrition. This will be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia that will remove them once and for all from world power status. They will no longer have the best markets for their fossil fuels and their military will be substantially degraded by the war and their demographics shot to pieces by the casualties in the current generation.

There are variables like the possibility of 100000 North Korean shock troops joining the fray, a general mobilization call in Russia, or the Russians simply digging in in their current positions and calling an inconclusive ceasefire for example.

 

[mindlight]

Imagine this too; A united Northern Hemisphere with a massive solar project at the north pole, where during summer months, where light is at it's fullest, electricity could be produced in an enormous way.

...The possibilities for *working together* are so much better than working against each other. And it promotes creativity.

Cool but unlikely

 

[mindlight]

How likely nuclear war would be if a nuclear power is invaded and is loosing.

Ukraine does not have the capacity to invade now or in the future but it can conduct asymmetric warfare. So the chance of this nuclear provocation is hopefully minimal. Also, I think Ukraine just wants its own land back.

 

[Halbhh]

Also, they still have not ordered a general mobilization

Of course, there's a reason (or 2) for that... The reasons are really interesting in themselves. It's related with how many think Putin's days are numbered (e.g. like maybe he won't be president in 2 or 3 years from now). Politically, Putin can't impose a draft on the Russian people. He's not got that kind of standing (I know it sounds odd to hear with the initial war-induced patriotic support he has had; Putin has a kind of deal with the Russian people, and it's not a blank check he has, but a give and take).

If Russia used nuclear weapons, it would unlock that barrier among other states in the world, and including among non state actors even becoming more likely. And eventually Russia itself would be hit with the weapons, I think at least some of the Russian hierarchy probably realizes on some level.

Ukraine can defeat Russia inside it's old borders, and expel Russia entirely, because of western aid.

But it's hard to say it will get that far, and we can only speculate how far it will go. For example, perhaps before getting all the way to 100% recovery of every bit of all territory from before 2014, there would be some negotiated settlement with the new Russian regime in power in that time, where Russia would keep some small parts, possibly one could even imagine similar to Kaliningrad, such as around Sevastopol.

 

[mindlight]

Of course, there's a reason (or 2) for that... The reasons are really interesting in themselves. It's related with how many think Putin's days are numbered (e.g. like maybe he won't be president in 2 or 3 years from now). Politically, Putin can't impose a draft on the Russian people. He's not got that kind of standing (I know it sounds odd to hear with the initial war-induced patriotic support he has had; Putin has a kind of deal with the Russian people, and it's not a blank check he has, but a give and take).

He has no viable opponents and full control of the state apparatus with the people in the key positions standing to lose if he goes. He is only one man and flesh and blood but the greatest probability is that he will remain in charge.

If Russia used nuclear weapons, it would unlock that barrier among other states in the world, and including among non state actors even becoming more likely. And eventually Russia itself would be hit with the weapons, I think at least some of the Russian hierarchy probably realizes on some level.

The Russians have never used their nukes. They are less responsible with power stations if you count Chernobyl within that history which they share with Ukraine. Also, the current scenario is unlikely to end with any invasion of Russia or existential threat to the state or represent a serious threat to Russia as an entity. NATO will not escalate this to nuclear and so there is no foreseeable reason here for nuclear war

Ukraine can defeat Russia inside it's old borders, and expel Russia entirely, because of western aid.

I doubt this once the Russians entrench and go defensive. But they may be able to push them back across the Dnieper in the South and prevent further expansion to the North

But it's hard to say it will get that far, and we can only speculate how far it will go. For example, perhaps before getting all the way to 100% recovery of every bit of all territory from before 2014, there would be some negotiated settlement with the new Russian regime in power in that time, where Russia would keep some small parts, possibly one could even imagine similar to Kaliningrad, such as around Sevastopol.

I still feel it unlikely that either regime change in Russia or reconquest by Ukraine is possible.

 

[Nithavela]

Ukraine does not have the capacity to invade now or in the future but it can conduct asymmetric warfare. So the chance of this nuclear provocation is hopefully minimal. Also, I think Ukraine just wants its own land back.

That land includes crimea, which Russia views as its own. Also Russia is going to conduct a number of referendums in some areas of ukraine, which it will then also annex thanks to the population heartily agreeing to join the motherland.

 

[stevil]

What if Ukraine invaded Russia ... and WON? I mean, the Russian military has been pretty incompetent so far. What would a victorious Ukraine do with a conquered Russia?

If Ukraine invades Russia then Ukraine might get nuked

 

[mindlight]

That land includes crimea, which Russia views as its own. Also Russia is going to conduct a number of referendums in some areas of ukraine, which it will then also annex thanks to the population heartily agreeing to join the motherland.

The Crimean referendum might have had more credibility than any around Kherson or indeed in the Donbas. But 99% margins for the Russia candidates are expected.

 

[Nithavela]

The Crimean referendum might have had more credibility than any around Kherson or indeed in the Donbas. But 99% margins for the Russia candidates are expected.

Doesn't matter how much credibility those referendums have to us. What matters is what credibility they will have to the russians, and those will believe whatever their state tv tells them was the credibility.