Should Ukraine invade Russia?

[mindlight]

Intelligence reports from the British indicate that Putin has lost close to a third of the men he deployed for this operation - that is approximately 50000 men killed or wounded. The Ukrainians have beaten the Russians off at Kyiv and Kharkiv. Unbelievably the Russians have still not taken Mariupol and are bogged down in the Donbas. On paper, the Russians still have enormous resources they can draw on and Putin still seems quite determined to carry on the fight, so it is far from over yet. On paper, Russia looked completely superior before this war and I would have suggested that Ukraine's best hope was a divided country at that point. But now with the performance of the Ukrainian military, continued clear support of the West, strong leadership, and without the extra commitment of a general mobilization from the Russians that assessment now seems too pessimistic. Although the cost of invading Russia is likely to run into hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the logistics would be a nightmare. If Ukraine has the hope of winning should it pay that price in lives or settle for a quicker peace at less cost?

Ukraine has plans to mobilize a million men and is receiving military supplies from all over the world. They seem to be getting stronger. There are reports that Ukrainian helicopters took out a supply dump inside Russian territory earlier in the war. But then nothing else happened. As the Ukrainian army becomes more self-confident and increasingly capable the obvious question arises:

Should Ukraine invade Russia? After all the Russians invaded them. How much Russian territory can the Ukraine claim for its dream of a greater Ukraine ;-) Or is it just enough to throw the Russians out. Does throwing the Russians out also mean taking back the Crimea and the rest of the Donbas?

Speech by Defence Secretary on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1525704460214878208

 

[Landon Caeli]

Intelligence reports from the British indicate that Putin has lost close to a third of the men he deployed for this operation - that is approximately 50000 men killed or wounded. The Ukrainians have beaten the Russians off at Kyiv and Kharkiv. Unbelievably the Russians have still not taken Mariupol and are bogged down in the Donbas. On paper, the Russians still have enormous resources they can draw on and Putin still seems quite determined to carry on the fight, so it is far from over yet. On paper, Russia looked completely superior before this war and I would have suggested that Ukraine's best hope was a divided country at that point. But now with the performance of the Ukrainian military, continued clear support of the West, strong leadership, and without the extra commitment of a general mobilization from the Russians that assessment now seems too pessimistic. Although the cost of invading Russia is likely to run into hundreds or thousands of lives on both sides and the logistics would be a nightmare. If Ukraine has the hope of winning should it pay that price in lives or settle for a quicker peace at less cost?

Ukraine has plans to mobilize a million men and is receiving military supplies from all over the world. They seem to be getting stronger. There are reports that Ukrainian helicopters took out a supply dump inside Russian territory earlier in the war. But then nothing else happened. As the Ukrainian army becomes more self-confident and increasingly capable the obvious question arises:

Should Ukraine invade Russia? After all the Russians invaded them. How much Russian territory can the Ukraine claim for its dream of a greater Ukraine ;-) Or is it just enough to throw the Russians out. Does throwing the Russians out also mean taking back the Crimea and the rest of the Donbas?

Speech by Defence Secretary on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1525704460214878208

IMO, Ukraine should seize areas that have banks with gold and silver, and they should take that gold and silver as compensation for all the costs that Russia has burdened them with in this war.

 

[Landon Caeli]

Really, Russia owes everybody money for what they've done, so I see no problem seizing Russian assets everywhere.

 

[Tom 1]

There are reports that Ukrainian helicopters took out a supply dump inside Russian territory earlier in the war. But then nothing else happened.

There have been quite a few incidents of unexplained explosions and fires on Russian territory, some which seem to be missile strikes and others apparent acts of sabotage.

There's no motivation within Ukraine's govt to invade Russia, but taking back Crimea, yes, although that would be a tough task and very different to the defensive and counteroffensive fighting against demotivated and poorly supplied troops to date.

 

[Nithavela]

It would be funny, and Russia would start throwing nukes, so I'm all for it.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

That would just prove that Putin was correct and that was the Ukrainians intention all along, to launch an attack on Russia.

 

[mindlight]

IMO, Ukraine should seize areas that have banks with gold and silver, and they should take that gold and silver as compensation for all the costs that Russia has burdened them with in this war.

Robbing a Russian Bank runs the risk of only walking away with rubles though.

 

[mindlight]

Really, Russia owes everybody money for what they've done, so I see no problem seizing Russian assets everywhere.

Maybe taking the grain they stole back could save a few million lives in Africa and Asia.

 

[mindlight]

There have been quite a few incidents of unexplained explosions and fires on Russian territory, some which seem to be missile strikes and others apparent acts of sabotage.

There's no motivation within Ukraine's govt to invade Russia, but taking back Crimea, yes, although that would be a tough task and very different to the defensive and counteroffensive fighting against demotivated and poorly supplied troops to date.

The government until recently has been in survival mode. But you are right there is no grand plan and the Crimea and East Donbas are populated by people determined to stay in Russias control. So maybe this will come down to a compromise and divided Ukraine afterall.

 

[mindlight]

That would just prove that Putin was correct and that was the Ukrainians intention all along, to launch an attack on Russia.

I thought the attack was the existential crisis they provoked by not wanting to be Russian. Not even Putin thought Ukraine capable of a military invasion. Even his rhetoric about NATO threats is just words or he would never have invaded Ukraine in the first place. But then he does seem to have Hungary and turkey as allies inside NATO. Maybe we should swap these for Finland and Sweden rather than listen to Erdogan whining about Kurds

 

[Halbhh]

Intelligence reports from the British indicate that Putin has lost close to a third of the men he deployed for this operation - that is approximately 50000 men killed or wounded. The Ukrainians have beaten the Russians off at Kyiv and Kharkiv. Unbelievably the Russians have still not taken Mariupol and are bogged down in the Donbas. On paper, the Russians still have enormous resources they can draw on and Putin still seems quite determined to carry on the fight, so it is far from over yet. On paper, Russia looked completely superior before this war and I would have suggested that Ukraine's best hope was a divided country at that point. But now with the performance of the Ukrainian military, continued clear support of the West, strong leadership, and without the extra commitment of a general mobilization from the Russians that assessment now seems too pessimistic. Although the cost of invading Russia is likely to run into hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the logistics would be a nightmare. If Ukraine has the hope of winning should it pay that price in lives or settle for a quicker peace at less cost?

Ukraine has plans to mobilize a million men and is receiving military supplies from all over the world. They seem to be getting stronger. There are reports that Ukrainian helicopters took out a supply dump inside Russian territory earlier in the war. But then nothing else happened. As the Ukrainian army becomes more self-confident and increasingly capable the obvious question arises:

Should Ukraine invade Russia? After all the Russians invaded them. How much Russian territory can the Ukraine claim for its dream of a greater Ukraine ;-) Or is it just enough to throw the Russians out. Does throwing the Russians out also mean taking back the Crimea and the rest of the Donbas?

Speech by Defence Secretary on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1525704460214878208

Should Ukraine, which I wrote back in mid March would win this war (when I wrote Russia would lose the war), also invade Russia?

No.

But they can legitimately hit military targets in Russia which are being used in the war against Ukraine. Not only with missiles or helicopters but even small commandos forces or such to destroy some military target (or fuel dump used for the war, etc.) and then withdraw.

No invasion, because that would give Putin an excuse for even worse atrocities.

 

[Nithavela]

The government until recently has been in survival mode. But you are right there is no grand plan and the Crimea and East Donbas are populated by people determined to stay in Russias control. So maybe this will come down to a compromise and divided Ukraine afterall.

Maybe the people in the East Donbas are fed up with being used as cannon fodder by the Russian army.

 

[com7fy8]

Offense can have more casualties, than defense. But it might help to reduce the amount of infrastructure loss in Ukraine.

I suppose you could drive back the Russians to an already destroyed area, then dig in there and let the Russians use up their resources attacking you where they can't destroy any more infrastructure. And attack their supply stores and routes. But hurting people who live in Russia isn't the way to go . . . returning evil for evil > that could be hurting a lot of people who care about the Ukrainians.

 

[chevyontheriver]

It would be funny

That's true.

and Russia would start throwing nukes

Ah, a downside. The other possible downside is Ukraine could win. And then what would Ukraine do with the conquered country of Russia? That might be really really awkward awkward.

 

[eider]

Should Ukraine invade Russia?

Nah! Defence is defence. And then let's hope that Russia sorts out Putin and his lackeys.
If Ukraine can defend successfully then membership of NATO for Ukraine, Finland, Norway, Sweden would be a very strong result.

 

[stevil]

Definitely consider taking back the Crimean peninsula.
And consider attacking places that Russia use to launch attacks on Ukraine from, or places that are crucial for Russia's supply lines.
But Ukraine should obviously be wary of the same supply line problems Russia are facing when venturing deep into another hostile nation.

 

[eider]

Definitely consider taking back the Crimean peninsula.
And consider attacking places that Russia use to launch attacks on Ukraine from, or places that are crucial for Russia's supply lines.
But Ukraine should obviously be wary of the same supply line problems Russia are facing when venturing deep into another hostile nation.

I think the very best weapon against Putin once he's been kicked out of Ukraine is to keep him and his out from World Commerce, Industry, Trade and Finances. With any luck the Russian people will sort him out

He should definitely be tried for war crimes.

 

[mindlight]

Definitely consider taking back the Crimean peninsula.
And consider attacking places that Russia use to launch attacks on Ukraine from, or places that are crucial for Russia's supply lines.
But Ukraine should obviously be wary of the same supply line problems Russia are facing when venturing deep into another hostile nation.

At this stage, the crucial question seems to be what peace looks like. It is hard to suggest that either side has won anything at present given the cost of blood and treasure and the continued loss of territory by Ukraine. But the tide of confidence has switched and Russia is on the back foot hence this thread.

The longer this war goes on the deeper the devastation. Many in Ukraine wants a complete victory that drives the Russians out of Crimea, the land bridge, and the Donbas. It might be hard for politicians to settle for anything less than that. But such a victory could be very costly in Ukrainian lives, will mean the war drags on for a longer time, and it is not being paid for by Ukrainian taxes.

America sees this as a "cheap" way to weaken Russia for the next few decades militarily and economically. The EU is annoyed at being fooled and lied to by Putin and that he called their bluff on energy security. The longer this goes on the less they will look to Russia for energy in the future and the weaker Russia will be economically also. China is studying this war closely looking for its own advantage and lessons it can apply to Taiwan. Ukraine just wants their land back even though much of it has been ruined. Everyone is trying to guess what Putin is thinking. Is he now looking for a graceful exit or is the big dream still intact to be returned to at a more opportune time? Does it suit his purpose to keep the open wound of this war bleeding for as long as it takes and until he can secure his best deal or does he now fear he could lose all the gains of his presidency and indeed his job? Hard to say really.

 

[stevil]

or does he now fear he could lose all the gains of his presidency and indeed his job? Hard to say really.

If he is riddled with cancer and is dying soon then I doubt he is worried bout his future job prospects.
Ukraine really should be trying to get their land back, can't reward countries for attacking them by gifting them land.

 

[TheNorwegian]

If Ukraine can defend successfully then membership of NATO for Ukraine, Finland, Norway, Sweden would be a very strong result.

Norway is already a member of NATO and was one of the founding members