If Group W and Group B commit the same amount of crimes, why would members of Group B all the sudden be questioned and investigated at a rate 3x's Group W?There is more to the math than that.
Take two groups of people: B and W.
Members of Group B are suspected of being law breakers. Thus, police question and investigate members from Group B at 3 times the rate of Group W.
- For the sake of mathematical argument, lets say that the members of Group B and W commit the exact same amount of crimes.
Given the above, members from Group B will easily have 3 x the arrest rate as members from Group W.
You then have a feedback loop. Police feel that Group B commits more crimes, they investigate group B more, they arrest group B more, then they look at those arrests and think "yeah, Group B commits more crimes" and thus they feel compelled to investigate Group B more...
This does NOT even factor in other possible causes, the above is just straight math. You add in other factors like human bias, stereotyping, racism, etc and it only gets worse.
So the problem is more than just a quick glance at some stats, you have to think of the factors behind the stats.
There is more to the math than that.
Take two groups of people: B and W.
Members of Group B are suspected of being law breakers. Thus, police question and investigate members from Group B at 3 times the rate of Group W.
- For the sake of mathematical argument, lets say that the members of Group B and W commit the exact same amount of crimes.
Given the above, members from Group B will easily have 3 x the arrest rate as members from Group W.
You then have a feedback loop. Police feel that Group B commits more crimes, they investigate group B more, they arrest group B more, then they look at those arrests and think "yeah, Group B commits more crimes" and thus they feel compelled to investigate Group B more...
This does NOT even factor in other possible causes, the above is just straight math. You add in other factors like human bias, stereotyping, racism, etc and it only gets worse.
So the problem is more than just a quick glance at some stats, you have to think of the factors behind the stats.
This would be a valid point if the two groups actually committed the same number of crimes.....
In your scenario, both groups are just a set of numbers. Numbers have no background, ideology, drive, environment, nor any other distinguishing features.This is a valid point 100% independent on the amount of crimes committed by each group. Similarly, the situation I describe is a "cause" for why one group could / would be seen to commit more crimes than the other group.
Lets look at how my argument relates to 3 scenarios. To recap, My argument is that if police look at Group B three times more than they look at Group W then Group B will have a higher rate of arrests.
Scenario #1) Group B commits the exact same number of crimes as Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate 3 times higher than Group W
Scenario #2) Group B commits more crimes than Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate more than 3 times higher than Group W
Scenario #3) Group B commits less crimes than Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate less than 3 times higher than Group W (Note in order for Group B to have an arrest rate less than Group W, then Group B would have to commit 3x less crimes than Group W).
What is interesting to note is that the above scenarios are mathematically linear, but in reality, the relationships between arrests and police focus is nonlinear. For the sake of argument, lets say that Group X commits 10% more crime than Group Y. In response police decide to focus 55% of their resources on Group X and 45% of their resources on Group Y (note that is 10% shifted to the group that commits 10% more crime). However, this focus will result in a higher arrest rate for Group X, so the next round of numbers will show that Group X commits 11% more crimes than Group Y. So in response, Police focus an extra 1% of resources to Group X. The next round of numbers will again show a 1% increase in arrests and in response police shift an extra 1% of resources to Group X.... Rinse and repeat and over time the arrest rate for Group X grows disproportionately to the rate of the actual crimes they commit.
PLEASE NOTE. My above argument has absolutely nothing to do with race, it is just math
This is a valid point 100% independent on the amount of crimes committed by each group. Similarly, the situation I describe is a "cause" for why one group could / would be seen to commit more crimes than the other group.
Lets look at how my argument relates to 3 scenarios. To recap, My argument is that if police look at Group B three times more than they look at Group W then Group B will have a higher rate of arrests.
Scenario #1) Group B commits the exact same number of crimes as Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate 3 times higher than Group W
Scenario #2) Group B commits more crimes than Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate more than 3 times higher than Group W
Scenario #3) Group B commits less crimes than Group W
Mathematically, this means Group B would have an arrest rate less than 3 times higher than Group W (Note in order for Group B to have an arrest rate less than Group W, then Group B would have to commit 3x less crimes than Group W).
What is interesting to note is that the above scenarios are mathematically linear, but in reality, the relationships between arrests and police focus is nonlinear. For the sake of argument, lets say that Group X commits 10% more crime than Group Y. In response police decide to focus 55% of their resources on Group X and 45% of their resources on Group Y (note that is 10% shifted to the group that commits 10% more crime). However, this focus will result in a higher arrest rate for Group X, so the next round of numbers will show that Group X commits 11% more crimes than Group Y. So in response, Police focus an extra 1% of resources to Group X. The next round of numbers will again show a 1% increase in arrests and in response police shift an extra 1% of resources to Group X.... Rinse and repeat and over time the arrest rate for Group X grows disproportionately to the rate of the actual crimes they commit.
PLEASE NOTE. My above argument has absolutely nothing to do with race, it is just math