Object Lesson on the Impossibility of Abiogenesis

[AV1611VET]

No, AV, you need to understand that calculating the probability after you have gotten a certain number of cards right is not the same as the probability you would calculate before you flipped any, because it means you are disregarding some of it.

-- What?

 

[PsychoSarah]

I don't understand what you're saying.

I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.

It's like rolling a die.

I write on a piece of paper what I'm going to roll, before I roll it.

Say I write the number "5".

Now I roll the die.

What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?

1 in 6

That would be right. And the odds of doing that 3 times in a row are 1/216. However, if you already rolled a 5 once, the chance of the next two rolls of being 5 as well are 1/36, because now you are only measuring 2 rolls. But this is after already rolling a 5, and since rolling a 5 once is still a 1/6 event, you always have to include it in the probability of an overall 3 roll event.

 

[sfs]

That reminds me of Feynman's license plate analogy. Regarding abiogenesis I don't think these arguments apply because not every combination produces the required result, which in this case is a cell that actually functions. What do you think? Do you agree?

Not every combination produces a living cell, but many, many combinations do -- how many nobody knows. Also, chemical reactions are not really like shuffled cards: one reaction can make others more or less likely, and replicating molecules can completely skew the odds.

Basically, it's safe to ignore anyone who claims to be able to calculate how probable it would be for life to form.

 

[PsychoSarah]

-- What?

I got mentally confused, what with both dice being flung around and cards being flipped in the same thread where you were the one bringing them up. You are ok in your card math, because 1 card being right removes it from the whole deck. But what you are showing is the possibility of PREDICTING the card order, obviously if we shuffle a standard card deck, it is going to be some order, and probably a unique deck if the shuffler was competent. In fact, AV, it would take an obscene amount of time to get every possible deck combination by shuffling fairly.

 

[AirPo]

I don't understand what you're saying.

I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.

It's like rolling a die.

I write on a piece of paper what I'm going to roll, before I roll it.

Say I write the number "5".

Now I roll the die.

What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?

1 in 6

Technically, the odd are 1 to 5, the probability is 1/6, and the chances are 1 in 6.

And the fact the number 5 is written down on a piece of paper is irrelevant.

 

[AV1611VET]

In fact, AV, it would take an obscene amount of time to get every possible deck combination by shuffling fairly.

That is correct.

In fact, it would take more seconds to do it than there are seconds in the universe since time began.

 

[PsychoSarah]

That is correct.

In fact, it would take more seconds to do it than there are seconds in the universe since time began.

Indeed. Don't know why you think this has anything to do with abiogenesis though. I mean, if I shuffle a deck, I am going to have one of those many deck orders, despite any one order being improbable, the fact that I have a deck means I will make the improbable event of some deck combination happen.

 

[Split Rock]

Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust.

Right here, you are wrong. There is no "correct order" for any protein sequence on the planet, even the most highly conserved. Protein sequences vary by individual, population and species... yet they are most often interchangeable. There is no one "correct order." Even worse, as far as I can see there is no one protein required for any process. The proteins that evolved are not necessarily the only ones that work that could have evolved to carry out their particular function(s).

The final problem is the assumption that the proteins themselves did not evolve to become more specific and refined over time. Most are catalysts and all catalysts do is speed up a reaction that would occur normally anyway. This lends itself quite nicely to a gradual evolutionary process. Even a simple polypeptide with a cleft and a positive or negative charge can serve as a catalyst, and there are many sequences that would form that.

The entire exercise in determining the probability of a particular sequence coming together at random is thus a useless effort.. except for propaganda purposes, of course.

 

[AV1611VET]

Indeed. Don't know why you think this has anything to do with abiogenesis though. I mean, if I shuffle a deck, I am going to have one of those many deck orders, despite any one order being improbable, the fact that I have a deck means I will make the improbable event of some deck combination happen.

Try working with a deck with 256 different cards now, and hopefully you'll see the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring in a universe that's been around for "only" 13.8 billion years.

 

[Split Rock]

Not every combination produces a living cell, but many, many combinations do -- how many nobody knows. Also, chemical reactions are not really like shuffled cards: one reaction can make others more or less likely, and replicating molecules can completely skew the odds.

Basically, it's safe to ignore anyone who claims to be able to calculate how probable it would be for life to form.

It makes for a good propaganda tool.

 

[PsychoSarah]

Try working with a deck with 256 different cards now, and hopefully you'll see the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring in a universe that's been around for "only" 13.8 billion years.

You do realize that natural selection applies to proteins too, and that many of them do the same thing, right? But even if you were correct on how improbable this was, the universe is so vast and so much time was given that even events that improbable can happen. It doesn't matter how many possibilities there are if I have billions of decks being shuffled.

 

[Split Rock]

Try working with a deck with 256 different cards now, and hopefully you'll see the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring in a universe that's been around for "only" 13.8 billion years.

Improbable does not mean impossible... no matter how many decimal places you add. It gets even worse for you argument, of course, if one takes a theistic course with God moving the process along.

 

[Aman777]

Indeed. Don't know why you think this has anything to do with abiogenesis though. I mean, if I shuffle a deck, I am going to have one of those many deck orders, despite any one order being improbable, the fact that I have a deck means I will make the improbable event of some deck combination happen.

Dear Sarah, Hello. I noticed that you are speaking of Magical Chemical Generation or abiogenesis. Just wanted to say Hi. It's good to see you again. God Bless you

 

[AV1611VET]

Protein sequences vary by individual, population and species...

What "individual, population and species"?

There aren't any yet -- did you read my OP?

Abiogenesis is waiting to happen ... just as soon as the (or "a", I suppose) correct order is achieved.

Meanwhile the seconds are ticking away.

 

[PsychoSarah]

Dear Sarah, Hello. I noticed that you are speaking of Magical Chemical Generation or abiogenesis. Just wanted to say Hi. It's good to see you again. God Bless you

-_- proteins naturally occur on their own in nature Aman. And nice to see you too.

 

[Split Rock]

What "individual, population and species"?

There aren't any yet -- did you read my OP?

Abiogenesis is waiting to happen ... just as soon as the (or "a", I suppose) correct order is achieved.

Meanwhile the seconds are ticking away.

And your calculations are based on what sequences, buddy? Modern ones that you are using in your model. You are missing my point, in any case, which is that there is no one sequence that must be created (by whatever mechanism) that functions.

 

[AV1611VET]

It makes for a good propaganda tool.

Ya ... now you guys are gonna start talking about life up and running strong, when my OP stipulates "abiogenesis".

It's even in the title to the thread.

If it wasn't for the Arab phone, you guys would actually understand something; wouldn't you?

 

[AV1611VET]

You do realize that natural selection applies to proteins too, and that many of them do the same thing, right?

Do you know the difference between "natural selection" and "abiogenesis"?

But even if you were correct on how improbable this was,

Did I say "improbable"?

Do you know the difference between "improbable" and "impossible"?

 

[Split Rock]

Ya ... now you guys are gonna start talking about life up and running strong, when my OP stipulates "abiogenesis".

It's even in the title to the thread.

If it wasn't for the Arab phone, you guys would actually understand something; wouldn't you?

How much variation in protein sequence are you accounting for in your calculations? I bet you cannot answer that question. The answer is NONE. What I am trying to explain, is that there IS plenty of variation even today and that is among highly refined sequences that have undergone millions or billions of years of selection.

 

[AV1611VET]

Improbable does not mean impossible...

Hey! Ya! No kidding!?

Give that man a cig... er ... give that man a clipboard or something!