Object Lesson on the Impossibility of Abiogenesis

[AV1611VET]

Here's a nice little object lesson to demonstrate the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring.

Write 10[sup]50[/sup] on a board.

This is the number mathematicians say is the limit of probability of something happening.

Anything after that is considered mathematically improbable.

Now take a deck of cards and shuffle them, and write down on a piece of paper what order you think the cards are going to turn up.

What are the odds that you wrote the correct order?

1/52!

That's one in the factorial of 52, or 1 in 52 x 51 x 50 x etc, all the way down to x1.

Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust.

That is almost five decks of cards.

The odds have now gone from 1/52! to 1/256!.

Or 1 in 256 x 255 x 254 x etc.

Since the limit of probability of something occurring is 1/10[sup]50[/sup], we can easily see that probability laws dictate that abiogenesis is improbable.

And consider this:

Scientists believe the universe is 14.7 billion years old.

That would be 463,579,200,000,000,000 or 463.5792 quadrillion seconds.

But 256! goes off the scale.

This means that, had the proteins started trying to come together in the correct order since time started -- and they didn't, since life has only been around for some 3.8 billion years, according to scientists -- there are not nearly enough seconds in existence to cover the probability of abiogenesis occurring.

So we're not dealing with just "mathematically improbable," we're dealing with "physically impossible."

 

[crjmurray]

That obviously can't be the "limit" of probability if you can shuffle the cards and come up with a worse probability. By the way it's 1 out of 8×10^67.

 

[whois]

i think it goes even further than that.
this isn't a kid playing around with a chemistry set.
this stuff requires certain chemicals at a certain time.
and it isn't a simple matter of just adding them.

in my opinion, science has already found abiogenesis impossible.

your math problem above doesn't fly.
for example, although the figures give a very low figure, it isn't zero.
to put this in simpler terms:
suppose you had 100 rocks and hid 100 dollars under one of them.
you have 1 chance in a 100 of finding the money the first time.
this doesn't mean you couldn't find it the first time 5 times in a row.

it isn't probabilities, it's the chemistry and the timeline that will prevent abiogenesis.

 

[Strathos]

Nice copypaste from a creationist site that assumes linear determinism which isn't a requirement at all.

 

[crjmurray]

Nice copypaste from a creationist site that assumes linear determinism which isn't a requirement at all.

I mentioned the card shuffling in another thread. Apparently he didn't understand it so now we have a whole thread focused on it.

 

[KWCrazy]

Now take a deck of cards and shuffle them, and write down on a piece of paper what order you think the cards are going to turn up.
What are the odds that you wrote the correct order?
1/52!
That's one in the factorial of 52, or 1 in 52 x 51 x 50 x etc, all the way down to x1.

Sorry, not right.

The odds of having any card in the right order is 1/52.
However, you have to do that 52 times.
Now the odds are 1/52^52.
That makes the chances of succeeding 1 in 1.70676555⋅10^89

The probability of the 256 proteins sequencing is 1 in 256^256. Even in five billion years recombining constantly the earth isn't old enough to allow for that probability. Here's another problem. Only left handed proteins can support life. So in truth the equation must be squared. Most evolutionists just admit that abiogenesis is a problem and claim that knowing how the first life came about has nothing to do with knowing everything else came from that first life.

 

[ChetSinger]

...Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust...

Yes, and it gets even worse than that. While a minimal-function cell codes for about 256 proteins, there's a circle-of-life where the DNA contains the manufacturing specifications for those proteins, some of which are then used to assist in the replication of the DNA itself. That is, one doesn't work without the other.

 

[AirPo]

Here's a nice little object lesson to demonstrate the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring.

Write 10[sup]50[/sup] on a board.

This is the number mathematicians say is the limit of probability of something happening.

Anything after that is considered mathematically improbable.

Now take a deck of cards and shuffle them, and write down on a piece of paper what order you think the cards are going to turn up.

What are the odds that you wrote the correct order?

1/52!

That's one in the factorial of 52, or 1 in 52 x 51 x 50 x etc, all the way down to x1.

Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust.

That is almost five decks of cards.

The odds have now gone from 1/52! to 1/256!.

Or 1 in 256 x 255 x 254 x etc.

Since the limit of probability of something occurring is 1/10[sup]50[/sup], we can easily see that probability laws dictate that abiogenesis is improbable.

And consider this:

Scientists believe the universe is 14.7 billion years old.

That would be 463,579,200,000,000,000 or 463.5792 quadrillion seconds.

But 256! goes off the scale.

This means that, had the proteins started trying to come together in the correct order since time started -- and they didn't, since life has only been around for some 3.8 billion years, according to scientists -- there are not nearly enough seconds in existence to cover the probability of abiogenesis occurring.

So we're not dealing with just "mathematically improbable," we're dealing with "physically impossible."

Did you come up with that yourself?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Now take a deck of cards and shuffle them, and write down on a piece of paper what order you think the cards are going to turn up.

What are the odds that you wrote the correct order?

1/52!

Coincidentally, those are the exact same odds that the cards sitting on the table in front of you are in the order they are (rather than any other order). You just did something 'mathematically improbable'. You can do it any time you like.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Sorry, not right.

The odds of having any card in the right order is 1/52.
However, you have to do that 52 times.
Now the odds are 1/52^52.

Once you've written down that the first card will be, say, the 3 of clubs, there are only 51 cards left to choose from. Keeping it at 52 for each step would 'allow' guesses like Ace of spades, ace of spades, ace of spades.... which is not a potential outcome.

 

[selfinflikted]

in my opinion, science has already found abiogenesis impossible.

It's a good thing science doesn't operate on opinion.

 

[AV1611VET]

Nice copypaste from a creationist site that assumes linear determinism which isn't a requirement at all.

I didn't copypaste anything.

 

[KWCrazy]

Once you've written down that the first card will be, say, the 3 of clubs, there are only 51 cards left to choose from. Keeping it at 52 for each step would 'allow' guesses like Ace of spades, ace of spades, ace of spades.... which is not a potential outcome.

There are 52 units, each of which can be in any of 52 positions. The diminishing number would only work if you confirmed each correct position as it happened. For example, if you match 5 out of the 52 on the next round there would only be 47 units and 47 potential correct placements.

 

[sfs]

Once you've written down that the first card will be, say, the 3 of clubs, there are only 51 cards left to choose from. Keeping it at 52 for each step would 'allow' guesses like Ace of spades, ace of spades, ace of spades.... which is not a potential outcome.

Well, maybe it's not a potential outcome with the deck you use.

 

[AV1611VET]

Sorry, not right.

The odds of having any card in the right order is 1/52.
However, you have to do that 52 times.
Now the odds are 1/52^52.
That makes the chances of succeeding 1 in 1.70676555⋅10^89

I disagree.

I have on my left, a sheet of paper with the order of cards written down.

Example:

1. Ace of Spades
2. 4 of Clubs
3. 7 of Diamonds
4. Etc.

On my right is a deck of cards, face down and shuffled.

What are the odds of the first card being the Ace of Spades? 1 in 52

So I turn the first card up and, behold, it is the Ace of Spades.

Now ... what are the odds that the next card is the 4 of Clubs? 1 in 51

So I turn the second card up and, behold, it is the 4 of Clubs.

Now ... what are the odds that the next card is the 7 of Diamonds? 1 in 50

So I turn the third card up and, behold, it is the 7 of Diamonds.

Etc.

 

[AV1611VET]

Did you come up with that yourself?

Sorta.

I had to look the number 256 up.

And I had to confirm the 10[sup]50[/sup] improbability threshold.

 

[PsychoSarah]

I disagree.

I have on my left, a sheet of paper with the order of cards written down.

Example:

1. Ace of Spades
2. 4 of Clubs
3. 7 of Diamonds
4. Etc.

On my right is a deck of cards, face down and shuffled.

What are the odds of the first card being the Ace of Spades? 1 in 52

So I turn the first card up and, behold, it is the Ace of Spades.

Now ... what are the odds that the next card is the 4 of Clubs? 1 in 51

So I turn the second card up and, behold, it is the 4 of Clubs.

Now ... what are the odds that the next card is the 7 of Diamonds? 1 in 50

So I turn the third card up and, behold, it is the 7 of Diamonds.

Etc.

No, AV, you need to understand that calculating the probability after you have gotten a certain number of cards right is not the same as the probability you would calculate before you flipped any, because it means you are disregarding some of it.

 

[AV1611VET]

Coincidentally, those are the exact same odds that the cards sitting on the table in front of you are in the order they are (rather than any other order). You just did something 'mathematically improbable'. You can do it any time you like.

I don't understand what you're saying.

I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.

It's like rolling a die.

I write on a piece of paper what I'm going to roll, before I roll it.

Say I write the number "5".

Now I roll the die.

What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?

1 in 6

 

[ChetSinger]

Coincidentally, those are the exact same odds that the cards sitting on the table in front of you are in the order they are (rather than any other order). You just did something 'mathematically improbable'. You can do it any time you like.

That reminds me of Feynman's license plate analogy. Regarding abiogenesis I don't think these arguments apply because not every combination produces the required result, which in this case is a cell that actually functions. What do you think? Do you agree?

 

[AV1611VET]

Once you've written down that the first card will be, say, the 3 of clubs, there are only 51 cards left to choose from. Keeping it at 52 for each step would 'allow' guesses like Ace of spades, ace of spades, ace of spades.... which is not a potential outcome.

If I had 52 decks of cards, then the odds would be 1/52[sup]2[/sup] that I would get every card on my list right.

But I only have one deck of cards, and one list.

So the odds are 1/52! that I will get it right.