Questions about Ukrainian culpability first surfaced last year when investigators found
no evidence to directly tie the attacks to the Russian government [where most fingers were originally pointing].
There is still no forensic evidence from the blast site that concretely ties the sabotage to any country, officials have said.
But recently, more information shared with officials in Washington and Europe suggests that a pro-Ukraine group, perhaps operating without Kyiv’s direct knowledge, may have carried out the attack, according to officials familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information with significant diplomatic implications.
U.S. officials have regarded the recent intelligence pointing to Ukrainian saboteurs cautiously.
“My understanding is that we don’t find this conclusive,” a senior Biden administration official said.
A senior Western security official said governments investigating the bombings uncovered evidence that pro-Ukraine individuals or entities discussed the possibility of carrying out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines before the explosions. The official referred to “signals” that such an operation was discussed or considered. The official emphasized that these communications were only discovered after the attack as Western spy agencies began scouring intelligence data for possible clues.
The information was offset by other intelligence suggesting the possibility that Russia was responsible. Separate intelligence, for example, showed that Russian naval vessels were detected at or near the locations of the attack in the weeks leading up to the explosions.
Some officials continue to say only a nation-state would have the requisite expertise and tools to carry out a complex underwater sabotage operation. But others counter that given the relatively shallow depth of the damaged pipelines — approximately 80 yards at the site of one explosion — a number of different actors could theoretically have been behind the attack, possibly with the use of submersible drones, divers or surface ships. The list of suspects isn’t limited only to countries that possess crewed submarines or deep-sea demolitions expertise, these officials have said.
German news reports on Tuesday
raised more questions about potential Ukrainian links to the Nord Stream attack. German authorities reportedly had made a “breakthrough” in their investigation, according to a joint investigation by multiple German media outlets, and had identified a small team of saboteurs using a yacht rented from a company in Poland that was “apparently owned by two Ukrainians.”
The Kremlin has blamed, at various points, Ukraine, Britain and the United States for the explosions.
