Heating up down under

Servus said:

There's a reason why most everyone in Australia lives on the coast.

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REALITY:

"Australia, on average, has warmed by 1.51 ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades. The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world’s land areas."​

eclipsenow said:

That is true. It's a desert surrounded by a skid-mark of green.
But the truth you just posted does not contradict the scientific evidence.
"People avoid living in deserts and like the beach" does NOT disprove "Australia's starting to cook in accordance with climate change."
Both statements can be true. Both ARE true!
Unless - of course - you are politically wedded to an anti-science proposition.
Then - being MAGA - you can just believe anything you want to. Apparently. Conservatives used to be about conserving nature, not practicing a radical experiment by altering the atmosphere of the entire planet!

Eunice Foote discovered CO2 trapped heat way back in 1956.
She put thermometers in equal glass jars out in the same sun, and filled them with different gases.
The CO2 jar warmed higher, methane even more.
This is backyard science - but MAGA denies it.
Why is that? Oh yeah - big funding from Koch brothers and Exxon.
Trump gives billionaires tax cuts and kicks the bottom 16 million Americans off healthcare and calls it a "Big Beautiful Bill." Go figure.

REALITY:​

​

"Australia, on average, has warmed by 1.51 ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades. The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world’s land areas."​

Australia's changing climate

Australia's weather and climate including temperature, fire weather, rainfall, heavy rainfall, streamflow, tropical cyclones, snowfall: State of the Climate 2024

www.csiro.au

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Servus said:

Going on about the hottest places on earth being hot during the hottest times of summer, as if that's something to be alarmed about, is kinda silly.

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Servus said:

Climate change has always existed.

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Servus said:

"Big funding from Koch brothers and Exxon" as a conspiracy for why people aren't panicking over it being a couple of degrees hotter than it was 115 years ago,

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Maybe you don't understand the difference between weather and climate?​

And Exxon knew about it all from their own scientists way back in 1977.​

Exxon scientists said...​

“Preventing global warming … would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion. Unless that happened, there are some potentially catastrophic events that must be considered … Once the effects are measurable, they might not be reversible.”​

eclipsenow said:

Not when those hottest places have measurements going back to 1910.



Yes - as if this is news to any actual scientist - let alone climate scientist. Or any humanities geek like myself who has read a bit. Do you know WHY the climate changes? What the top drivers are? What causes a glacial period and interglacial period over tens of thousands of years - or what about LONGER term climate trends over the 10's of millions of years?

Like I said - I'm not even a scientist. But even I know some of these things.


A couple of degrees hotter? Maybe you're thinking of weather.
A couple of degrees of CLIMATE change should scare you - should make you angry - should make you think of the inter-generational immorality of us living as if we allowed to squander our children and grandchildren's futures!

Didn't Calvin himself say the farmer should leave his fields in better condition than he found them? He had basic ideas of stewardship in mind.

Maybe you don't understand the difference between weather and climate?​

Think of water in a bathtub. Weather is the toddler splashing and making waves. The amount of water stays the same, but the waves rock back and forth with the water level. Climate change is that someone left the tap on, and soon that toddler could drown!

Climate change is the energy imbalance of the planet - the extra energy 'trapped' by the sunlight bouncing off the earth's surface as heat, and being trapped by the thicker blanket of gases surrounding the earth.

It's going up about to 2 Hiroshima bombs per second, every second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day, of every day of the year. All year around. It shows up in glaciers melting, heat records toppling, seasons out of whack, grubs hatching and dying before the baby birds hatch so they can eat the grubs. It's the very food web is out of whack.

It's global crop yields down a quarter as the population goes UP a quarter by 2050.

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And Exxon knew about it all from their own scientists way back in 1977.​

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Exxon scientists said...​

In 1982 they sent a document marked “not to be distributed externally.”

“Preventing global warming … would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion. Unless that happened, there are some potentially catastrophic events that must be considered … Once the effects are measurable, they might not be reversible.”​

Exxon CO2 Primer (1982) - Inside Climate News

This document describes the state of the science on the greenhouse effect was widely circulated among Exxon management.

insideclimatenews.org

It seems sir - that you have a lot more reading and thinking to do.

Unless of course, like most MAGA you just think "That's what you CHOOSE to believe - I choose to believe something else."

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Servus said:

I see you skipped talking about how much huge money the $8,000,000,000,000 Green Industry,

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Servus said:

and the DNC, has to gain from Climate Change Panic. That the Green Industry made an extra $2,000,000,000,000 in 2024 and has given millions in political donations.

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Servus said:

I wonder how much money the 8 Trillion Dollar and growing Green Industry is putting into Climate Change Science? According to AI it's over a Trillion Dollars, and expected to increase substantially.

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Global health costs​

4 Prestigious international universities studied fossil fuel pollution.​

The global stats are not good. It kills 8 million people a year - that’s 1 in 5 deaths in 2018.​

Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought​

Global fossil fuel reserves​

Coal will peak and run out​

​

Customers will leave oil before peak oil could happen! Big oil are terrified of EV’s​

But over to you.​

eclipsenow said:

I see YOU forgot to debunk how gases in backyard glass bottles in 1856 demonstrated how CO2 traps heat, and how Exxon scientists confirmed climate projections done by their scientists back in 1977 through to the mid 1980s are playing out on our watch - as we speak and you deny the science!?

When EXXON confirms climate change - you know it's real. (Despite their and the Koch's brother's hundreds of millions funding online denial campaigns, the Heartland Institute, and general spreaders of FUD about climate science.) Just skipped past these inconvenient truths hey?

Now, the global green funds are big - and now are starting to represent even bigger industries. But that's all to the good! I'll cover that below. But now - what is WITH your utterly fallacious and fantastical figures?



Uh, where was that sort of money going - from who to whom? That sounds like the Illuminati-stole-my-homework tinfoil hat.
Got some kind of credible evidence?


Woah - one minute it's $2 TRILLION - the next it's $8! Is this like that week Donald Trump solved 7 wars - then it jumped to 10 - then it was back down to 8? Seriously dude - what on earth are you talking about!? It's even more tinfoil hat now - even more unbelievable.

Even the global OIL industry 'only' makes just under $8 Trillion.

There are 2 REAL figures we need to discuss: global health costs and global reserves.

Global health costs​

4 Prestigious international universities studied fossil fuel pollution.​

The global stats are not good. It kills 8 million people a year - that’s 1 in 5 deaths in 2018.​

Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought​

The EXTRA health care costs and flow on damage to our economies is $5 TRILLION a year. With flow on costs, it is MORE than the world actually puts into healthcare. So what do we do? SUBSIDIZE it by giving fossil fuels $400 BILLION in subsidies etc each year.
Stop funding pollution

Here’s the irony! The IEA estimates we only need to spend $4 Trillion a year on the Energy Transition. In other words, the sooner we get this done, the sooner it starts to pay for itself - just on public health grounds alone! Globally we’ll save $5 TRILLION in extra health costs as we give our kids clear skies to enjoy. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

IT’S THE PATRIOTIC THING TO DO!
We’ll save 8 million lives a year, prepare for when oil, gas, and even coal mining all start to peak and decline ANYWAY, have sustainable cheap energy moving into the future, have more money to adapt to the climate change we have already caused, and bankrupt Petro-Dictators like Vladimir Putin as the world no longer needs the dirty, dangerous product he pushes! It’s just the patriotic thing to do!

Global fossil fuel reserves​

Coal will peak and run out​

Coal is finite and would RUN OUT in a century if we kept burning it at current rates. Stanford says 2081
http://mahb.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Gioietta_1_23.png
http://www.researchgate.net/publica...ical_potential_for_renewable_energy_resources
When Fossil Fuels Run Out, What Then? - MAHB
When will fossil fuels run out?
But before then - about half way through - the easy coal runs out. We hit peak coal which means declining output of ever more expensive coal. This could bankrupt any nation not ready for it!
When will fossil fuels run out?
Peak coal - Wikipedia
Fossil fuels fund people who do not like us very much. Think of Russian gas funding their Ukrainian war, and all those countries in the Middle East that do not approve of western freedom! If we encourage the world to "Electrify everything" and run off wind and solar - boom! They're bankrupt!

Google peak oil and gas. I can't be bothered when the literature is out there and obvious. Discovery rates have been so low we're now eating into oil our grandparents discovered. Discovery hasn't equalled consumption since the 1980's! We are close - give or take a decade - to the global maximum oil and gas output that humanity will ever produce - and from then on geological constraints will force a reduction in supply.

That thought? 20 years above it used to dominate my every waking moment. It was the stuff of nightmares - of Mad Max and the collapse of society. But now China have ramped up the production of super-efficient wind and solar and EV's so fast, and the costs have come down so much, they are now the cheapest energy the human race has ever enjoyed, period! Even WITH Overbuild and Backup and Super-grid infrastructure to build out the continental super-grids required for 'the law of large numbers' to smooth supply from intermittent wind and solar.

So - fortunately - despite Trump's wild and whacky ideas - the world is saved. America might not be - but hey? You voted for the guy. You get what you deserve if you're going to vote for someone with an incurable personality disorder!

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Customers will leave oil before peak oil could happen! Big oil are terrified of EV’s​

Big oil are scared as global demand for oil is about to peak and decline. The IEA tracks EV sales over the last few years:
2020: 5%
2021: 9%
2022: 14%
Why - that looks like a doubling curve!
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary

The IEA predict an oil GLUT by 2028!!! The IEA!
These are the guys the OECD set up to help prevent another 1970's oil crisis!
https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028
Which leads us to ask - as Trump ignorantly chants "Drill baby drill!" - by the time the industry scales up if he actually delivers on this silly election promise - who are they going to sell to?

But what is the oil industry themselves saying about all this?
New refineries are coming because they're aware the petroleum and diesel sectors are going to crash! They're worried they are going to struggle to rejig their refinery capacity to new products as diesel and petroleum shrink faster than the refineries can be rejigged. An awful lot of superannuation is tied up in oil reserves and companies and projects that are soon to not even be needed!
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries...s-how-refineries-can-adapt-to-shifting-demand

The IEA, EIA and oil producers are all talking about it.
US is at peak gasoline demand: Phillips 66 | Latest Market News

The RMI has a report on how refineries can adapt to lower fuel demands but still make petro-chemicals and maybe jet fuel. (probably the hardest and last thing to decarbonise.)
Five Ways US Oil Refineries Can Reduce Emissions Today - RMI

But over to you.​

Do you accept science? Climate science? Vaccines? Or has Trump stolen your heart and become a bit of an idol for you - distorting your view of reality?

Do you want Americans to die from dirty fossil fuels, or have cleaner air? Because the air can look fine - but be full of dangerous particulates that give you lung cancer and kill people and cause that ridiculous health bill.

Do you want a global market for oil to fund everyone who hates America?
Middle Eastern Muslim monarchies?
Venezuela?
Russia?

Or do you want America to do the patriotic thing, get ahead of the renewables and Electrify Everything revolution, and be a world leader?

Well TOO BAD!

Because Trump and Musk already had their inevitable spat.

Trump's stopped subsidies that might have helped Tesla accelerate their lead.
Musk has also shot himself in the foot by being a crazy-alt-right MAGA, and having the WONDERFUL PR stunt of being the world's richest man while cutting Federal services to the poor.

(Doing certain nasty salutes in public also didn't help).

China's BYD and other EV manufacturers have already won the EV race!

The European and American manufacturers took a shot to the heart a few years ago - they just haven't figured out they are dead and toppled over yet.

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Servus said:

The Green Industry made $2 Trillion in 2024 for a total of $8 Trillion so far. Which anyone can look up to see for themselves. But of course by 2026 it will be even more. It's hard to get an exact current figure, considering how much money it's sucking in. Meaning that the Green Industry has just as much financial power to manipulate politicians and research as Koch and Exxon et al. Which is something worth taking into consideration.

Eventually as a matter of progress, the Green Industry will replace a lot of stuff anyways. But of course those making the most money from the Green Industry want as much money as possible ASAP.

The Green Industry has a negative impact on the environment as well. Namely when it comes to EV batteries. Explore the negative impacts of the Green Industry for better insights.

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Ophiolite said:

Two points:

You seem to have sidestepped acknowledgement of the extent and impact of global warming, other than a limp "The Green Industry has a negative impact on the environment as well."

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Ophiolite said:

What evidence do you have that the potential for Green Industry to influence politicians equally with the oil lobbies is being put into practice. And what evidence do you have that they are doing so with distorted arguments, as has been demonstrated for those on the other side?

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