Florida

[FireDragon76]

My wife's extended family in the Miami and Houston partied like Covid was over.....and now many are testing positive. In one case, a twenty-something son passed Covid to his mid sixties father who is now in the ICU at Miami hospital.

IMO, people in general let their guard down, wanted to socialize and got lured into thinking the virus was past. And of course, here in the US we are receiving mixed messages from our political leaders from the very start.

I don't think it was people in general, it was young people that were narcissistic, ignorant, and following our confused leadership's bad example.

If an error was made, it wasn't relying upon the force of law. The "honor system" in states that "reopened" was a failure. You can't ask people to wear masks and distance and then give them a wink and a nod when they don't.

 

[essentialsaltes]

With that 15,000+ day, Florida has leapt over Texas to take the #3 spot in total cases. Per capita, Florida has jumped into the top 10 at #9 (And Arizona is now at #3 behind NY/NJ).

 

[ThatRobGuy]

The demographic spreading COVID-19 is too young to have children that go to school, for the most part.

What I meant was that a 18-20 year old could've gone to the protest, then spread it to other people in their parents that are in their 40's. (or simply contracting at the protests, the heading out to the bars afterwards and spreading to other patrons)

The timing is still too coincidental to not be indicative of the protests being a major culprit.

If restaurants/bars had been open for almost a full month, easter had come and gone, and the usual time from exposure to onset it 2-6 days...the fact that it occurred withing a week or two of the protests (in both areas with strict and non-strict policies), that's all too much of a coincidence.

I get it...protesting for police accountability and demanding that systemic injustice be addressed is a worthwhile cause (and one that mostly liberals are championing right now because the GOP wants to dig their heels in and side with police for the sake of "owning" liberals)...but facts are facts. It was generally agreed upon that large gatherings (of any kind) were risky, that's precisely what happened, and the predictable outcome started coming to fruition a week later.

 

[essentialsaltes]

The timing is still too coincidental to not be indicative of the protests being a major culprit.

Why didn't New York City protests lead to the same results?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Why didn't New York City protests lead to the same results?

That's one particular location, that had relatively small amounts of participants compared to that of Houston, Miami-Dade, and that already had a high percentage of people who had contracted the virus and then recovered.

NYC had 5,000 participants, Houston had 60,000...Florida had numerous ranging from 500 to 3,000 all over the state.

California had strict lockdown policies, and just had to re-lockdown today as a result of high levels of new infections.

Colorado opened early, and didn't have to...Colorado's governor reopened around the same time as Georgia, Florida, and Texas...and didn't get nearly as much flak for it...I suspect it's due to the (D) after the name instead of the (R)...just a hunch.

All that aside, if the narrative is that the outdoor protests (involving tens of thousands of people) aren't the main culprit, that means that outdoor gatherings aren't a major point of concern...which means that governors had no right to shut down parks and beaches, yes?

They can't have it both ways on this one. If tens of thousand of people, gathering outdoors in close proximity, isn't an issue for protests, then it isn't an issue for some people who want to meet up with some friends on the beach for a picnic.


Let's be consistent here...

If 60,000 people lined up shoulder to shoulder for an anti-police protest supposedly isn't "a cause of spreading", then me meeting my brother at a restaurant, for outdoor dining (at a table 6 feet away from everyone else), being served by a wait staff wearing masks and gloves, isn't a risk factor either.

This partisan nonsense is getting to be a bit frustrating...

According to CNN, if someone has a "spit in each other's mouth" party in the name of "holding police accountable", that's not a major cause of concern, but if someone wants to eat in a restaurant, socially distanced from everyone else, "they're part of the problem" is logically absurd.

 

[essentialsaltes]

That's one particular location, that had relatively small amounts of participants compared to that of Houston, Miami-Dade...

NYC had 5,000 participants

On one day at one event. It may not match Houston, but...

Florida had numerous ranging from 500 to 3,000 all over the state.

That sounds like New York. Not all over the state, but all in NYC, one of the densest places in the US.

and that already had a high percentage of people who had contracted the virus and then recovered.

Like 2%. This sounds like special pleading.

California had strict lockdown policies, and just had to re-lockdown today as a result of high levels of new infections.

Sure, but not as bad (per capita) as AZ or FL. You're telling me there are more antifa Marxists protesting in AZ than in California? You're telling me there are more protests in the states Trump won than in the states he lost?

All that aside, if the narrative is that the outdoor protests (involving tens of thousands of people) aren't the main culprit

Strawman.

Outdoor events are less dangerous than indoor ones, all things being equal. What 'the main culprit' is will depend on particular situations. Maybe in Houston, it's protests. In NYC, it does not appear to even be a culprit, much less the main one.

 

[FireDragon76]

What I meant was that a 18-20 year old could've gone to the protest, then spread it to other people in their parents that are in their 40's. (or simply contracting at the protests, the heading out to the bars afterwards and spreading to other patrons)

The timing is still too coincidental to not be indicative of the protests being a major culprit.

If restaurants/bars had been open for almost a full month, easter had come and gone, and the usual time from exposure to onset it 2-6 days...the fact that it occurred withing a week or two of the protests (in both areas with strict and non-strict policies), that's all too much of a coincidence.

I get it...protesting for police accountability and demanding that systemic injustice be addressed is a worthwhile cause (and one that mostly liberals are championing right now because the GOP wants to dig their heels in and side with police for the sake of "owning" liberals)...but facts are facts. It was generally agreed upon that large gatherings (of any kind) were risky, that's precisely what happened, and the predictable outcome started coming to fruition a week later.

It's just not an obvious conclusion, regardless of the "facts". Most of the largest surges have happened in states that didn't even have significant protests.

 

[wing2000]

Outdoor events are less dangerous than indoor ones, all things being equal. What 'the main culprit' is will depend on particular situations. Maybe in Houston, it's protests. In NYC, it does not appear to even be a culprit, much less the main one.

...and the only way to know for sure is via contact tracing. Everything else is speculation based on which timeline events one chooses to highlight.

However, it's fairly well established that COVID spreads most easily with people indoors, in situations where there is sustained contact between people in close proximity.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Florida sets new record daily death total 132.

Florida’s death toll from coronavirus saw the biggest spike in reported deaths to date with the state Department of Health adding another 132 fatalities to bring the death toll to 4,409.

The state also reported another 9,194 positive cases of COVID-19 to bring Florida’s total to 291,629. The positivity rate for the new cases rose to just over 15% after four straight days below.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Florida health officials have identified a troubling trend; approximately 31 percent, or one-third, of children in Florida tested for COVID-19 yield positive results, according to the Sun Sentinel.

State data indicates that out of 54,022 Florida children tested, 31.1 percent have returned positive results on average. This is higher than the statewide positivity rate, which reads in at about 11 percent.

This comes as states determine whether in-person education will resume in the fall. Outside of potentially hazardous consequences of a coronavirus infection to children, asymptomatic carriers pose a threat to teachers and other staff, who are demographically more likely to have a severe infection.

 

[jgarden]

If the "George Floyd" protests made a significant impact on the spread of COVID-19, why are Florida, Texas, Arizona and California the "hot spots" and not states like Minnesota where it all began!

As for reopening the schools, perhaps this President and the Governors should have a long talk with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu who reopened that nation's schools too soon without investing in adequate safeguards - now he's feeling the wrath from a less than adoring public that wants answers!

 

[wing2000]

Florida health officials have identified a troubling trend; approximately 31 percent, or one-third, of children in Florida tested for COVID-19 yield positive results, according to the Sun Sentinel.

State data indicates that out of 54,022 Florida children tested, 31.1 percent have returned positive results on average. This is higher than the statewide positivity rate, which reads in at about 11 percent.

This comes as states determine whether in-person education will resume in the fall. Outside of potentially hazardous consequences of a coronavirus infection to children, asymptomatic carriers pose a threat to teachers and other staff, who are demographically more likely to have a severe infection.

...16,800 Florida children who are confirmed to have COVID. I wonder how many birthday parties, sleep overs and other events they may have attended while asymptomatic?

 

[hedrick]

...16,800 Florida children who are confirmed to have COVID. I wonder how many birthday parties, sleep overs and other events they may have attended while asymptomatic?

Florida has abut 4 million kids under 18. 16,800 is 0.4% of those under 18.

The real question is whether the prevalence is really greater among kids than adults. I'm skeptical that these results give us the answer. Florida has done about 2.5 million tests. 54.000 isn't a very impressive number. Mosts states are trying to get as many people to test as possible. Initially it was just sick people, but we're now trying to get a broader sample. The small number of kids tested suggests to me that probably only those who are sick are getting tested.

I'm not denying that kids can get Covid, just that we can use these numbers and claim that 3 times more kids get it than adults. It's actually a big problem that we don't have better testing results from kids.

 

[jgarden]

...16,800 Florida children who are confirmed to have COVID. I wonder how many birthday parties, sleep overs and other events they may have attended while asymptomatic?

Florida

As the situation worsens, it was just a matter of time before this President and some Republican Governors decided to further "politicize" this Pandemic by assuming control over the collection and selective release of medical data to support their agendas!

 

[hedrick]

I finally found slightly better data. This is based on samples from 6 locations, taken from medical visits that were not connected with Covid. It used antibody tests, which would show more or less whether the person had had Covid. The total numbers have been widely quoted. They imply that about 10 times more people have had it than the reported case numbers. There have been several different ways of estimating that ratio. The factor of 10 seems moderatly reliable. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140384v1.full.pdf

However if you go back to the actual study, they reported results by age. For most locations, people under 18 had about half the prevalence of the population as a whole. One of the exceptions was higher, the other lower. This figure is consistent with an earlier estimate from China. I'm inclined to accept it as the best we can do.

The Chinese study noted that while infection was at about half the rate as the population as a whole, kids under 18 tended to be in contact with more people than adults, by about a factor of 2. So the difference sort of cancels out, assuming that they transmit the virus equally well. Our culture is different than China's, but I'd assume our kids also see more other people than adults do.

Note that most locations closed schools fairly early in the epidemic, so these results may well not apply when schools are open. With schools closed and lockdowns in place, kids would probably have less contact with people outside the family than adults.

The outlier where children showed more infections than adults was S Florida.

Now the big question which I think we don't have a clue about is whether kids transmit virus at the same rate as adults.

 

[jgarden]

I finally found slightly better data. This is based on samples from 6 locations, taken from medical visits that were not connected with Covid. It used antibody tests, which would show more or less whether the person had had Covid. The total numbers have been widely quoted. They imply that about 10 times more people have had it than the reported case numbers. There have been several different ways of estimating that ratio. The factor of 10 seems moderatly reliable. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.25.20140384v1.full.pdf

However if you go back to the actual study, they reported results by age. For most locations, people under 18 had about half the prevalence of the population as a whole. One of the exceptions was higher, the other lower. This figure is consistent with an earlier estimate from China. I'm inclined to accept it as the best we can do.

The Chinese study noted that while infection was at about half the rate as the population as a whole, kids under 18 tended to be in contact with more people than adults, by about a factor of 2. So the difference sort of cancels out, assuming that they transmit the virus equally well. Our culture is different than China's, but I'd assume our kids also see more other people than adults do.

Note that most locations closed schools fairly early in the epidemic, so these results may well not apply when schools are open. With schools closed and lockdowns in place, kids would probably have less contact with people outside the family than adults.

Now the big question which I think we don't have a clue about is whether kids transmit virus at the same rate as adults.

Epidemiologists in Israel have noticed that it was the middle school students who recorded the highest rates of COVID-19 after that nation's were opened on May 17th!

They attributed it to the behavioral characteristics associated with that age group which makes them more likely to ignore instructions concerning masks and social distancing - which raises the question as to whether this President and his supporters have the mindsets of defiant adolescents?

 

[camille70]

‘Stupid people’ may force Broward to shut down, vice mayor says

Said Gelber: “We are just telling them to wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands with soap and water. And that seems too much for some people. And it’s killing others. So, yeah, I’m a little angry about that.”

 

[camille70]

Coronavirus: You can now be fined $100 for not wearing a mask in Miami-Dade County

 

[camille70]

“They are seeing there is damage to the lungs in these asymptomatic children. ... We don’t know how that is going to manifest a year from now or two years from now,” Alonso said. “Is that child going to have chronic pulmonary problems or not?”

Nearly one-third of children tested for COVID in Florida are positive. Palm Beach County’s health director warns of risk of long-term damage

 

[FireDragon76]

...16,800 Florida children who are confirmed to have COVID. I wonder how many birthday parties, sleep overs and other events they may have attended while asymptomatic?

I live in a largely working-class neighborhood that's mostly hispanic and black. Kids are playing outside all the time. Prior to about a week ago, people routinely held parties in our apartment duplex complex. Clearly, people are not getting the message to socially distance. And that's precisely why COVID-19 is spreading in states like Florida. Confusing messaging from our leadership that isn't based in science.