Dow predictions; 3/3/2009

[DaisyDay]

12391.25 - Feb 18, 2011

 

[DaisyDay]

12,646.65 - Apr 27, 2011.

 

[AMOG]

Well, I am feeling slightly better about my 13,500 number. Why? One fundamental principle.

YOU CANNOT FIGHT THE FED.

As long as the federal government is propping up the market it will continue to go up. The real test will come when the propping up ends. If they do it exactly right they can remove the support and the market will stay up on it's own. Or they could do it badly and the market could come crashing down. Not the end of the economy as we know it, just another horrific roller coaster ride.

All the gloom and doomers will pop back out and say "I told you so" (without investing a dime of their money in short positions)

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens in the "sell" month of May. But things are looking better for 13,500.

 

[Steve Petersen]

Never been a 15 year period in which the markets lost money from beginning to end. Invest for the long haul.

 

[xfisherman]

Dow at 9000 12302011

 

[jayem]

Never been a 15 year period in which the markets lost money from beginning to end. Invest for the long haul.

Agree. Sometime before 2020: Dow at 20,000. S & P at 3,000.

BTW: If SS is ever privatized--even partially--huge amounts of money are gonna flow into the stock markets. Where else will it be invested? The sky could be the limit.

Stay invested, my friends.

 

[cerad]

Never been a 15 year period in which the markets lost money from beginning to end. Invest for the long haul.

The Japanese will be glad to hear this.

 

[Steve Petersen]

The Japanese will be glad to hear this.

Nobody got dividends either?

 

[terpenga]

We all going to be ok! America is Great!!!

 

[DaisyDay]

12,583.68 - July 20, 2011. Lower than in April, but still higher than it was 10 years ago.

 

[DaisyDay]

10,850.79 - Oct 12, 2011. At near its 2011 low. If it doesn't pick up soon, we will officially be in a bear market.

 

[sdmsanjose]

Dow close at 11-11-11
12,153.68
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/news

Posted 1-4-2011 by sdmsanjose
I am going to take that 13,500 prediction for December 2011.
AMOG maybe right but I hope not as I have moved some of my 401K from cash into stocks for 2011

How about the rest of you what are we going to see at 12-31-2011?

For the end of 2009 and 2010 the doomsday predictors lost big time. Maybe they will do better in 2011 but we may not get to find out. The doomsday sayers have disappeared from this thread for the last year and a half. Where are they?

If the DOW keeps gaining we may see 13,000 plus by 12-31-2011.
If the DOW goes down I am sure we will here from the doomsday crowd. If the DOW does not go down significantly, the doomsday crowd will have been wrong for 3 years in a row, 2009, 2010, and 2011.
Doomsday predictors, See below

Wheristhetruth
Some people have insane-optimism syndrome. Where is the recovery going to come from? What is going to halt the collapse?

wpiman
Dow predictions; 3/3/2009
5400 in October (2009)

Joachim
Below 6,000 by the end of the month
Below 5,000 by the end of June.
Below 4,000 by January 1st.
Between 2,000 and 3,200 by the middle of next year. (2010)


Breakaway Republic
NO short term [1-3 months] prediction.
Long term prediction : Total collapse before December 25th. (2009)



deleted 11-20-2011

 

[DaisyDay]

I heard on the radio this morning that we are likely to have another recession next year, near the beginning - mainly if Europe has an economic crisis.

The Dow took a big downturn this past July-Aug because of the debt ceiling crisis (thank you, Tea Party). If there is a recession next year, I can't see the GOP doing anything to get us out before the election.

 

[d'Albert]

I predict the Dow will be different tomorrow than it was today.

 

[The Nihilist]

Dow close at 11-11-11
12,153.68
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/news



If the DOW keeps gaining we may see 13,000 plus by 12-31-2011.
If the DOW goes down I am sure we will here from the doomsday crowd. If the DOW does not go down significantly, the doomsday crowd will have been wrong for 3 years in a row, 2009, 2010, and 2011.
Doomsday predictors, See below

Wheristhetruth
Some people have insane-optimism syndrome. Where is the recovery going to come from? What is going to halt the collapse?

wpiman
Dow predictions; 3/3/2009
5400 in October (2009)

Joachim
Below 6,000 by the end of the month
Below 5,000 by the end of June.
Below 4,000 by January 1st.
Between 2,000 and 3,200 by the middle of next year. (2010)


Breakaway Republic
NO short term [1-3 months] prediction.
Long term prediction : Total collapse before December 25th. (2009)



The Nihilist
We're basically doomed.

Did you miss it when I called the recovery a Cylon plot? That should have been the tip-off that I was ridiculing the doomsdayers.

 

[sdmsanjose]

The Nihilist
We're basically doomed.

Did you miss it when I called the recovery a Cylon plot? That should have been the tip-off that I was ridiculing the doomsdayers.

I did miss your post about the Cylon plot. However it would have done me any good to have seen it as I do not know what a Cylon is. Can you explain?

I thought when you said “We’re basically doomed” that you were referring to the DOW being doomed. Since you clarified that you do not share the doomsdayers pessimistic views I will remove your post that I quoted.

I am not an eternal optimist but I do try and read the history of the DOW and I find that such pessimistic predictions by some on this board are not taking into consideration the history and some other facts. It seemed like they made their predictions based on their pessimistic outlook and their fears.

I am sure the doomsday predictors will be back if the DOW drops below 6,000. I am glad that I did not listen to the doomsday people and I stayed in the market from 2008 to 2011 and have recovered all the losses in 2008 and then got some gains.
We may have a drop due to the politicians not getting a deal on the budget cuts in November and/or the Europe situation. However, I will take Warren Buffet’s advice over the doomday people. Buffet said that in 5 years the market will be higher than it is now. Since I will not retire before 5 years I will continue to listen to the real pros.

 

[The Nihilist]

Let me google that for you

That said, it's a good show. Definitely worth checking out.

 

[DaisyDay]

Dec 30, 2011 - 12,217.56
Jan 3, 2012 - 12,348.34

 

[sdmsanjose]

Prediction for 12-31-2012 = 14,000

Anyone else care to predict?


PS Large cap U.S. Stocks will do best ( My guess)

 

[Steve Petersen]

I don't know if many are aware of this:

We only need about 10% move to for the Dow to hit a record level.

The Dow's highest close was about 14,200 in 2007, IIRC.