Dow predictions; 3/3/2009

[AMOG]

Dang, I thought I made a prediction on here... All I did was talk about a two day trend. Oh well.

I see, in early May that we were in a "suckers rally". Hummm, them suckers seem to still be rallying. I've been largely in it.

But as for predictions, we will cross 10,000 before the end of December 2009. (but that seems pretty obvious, right?)

The end of 2010 is trickier but I'll hang my hat on 12,000 by then.

The thing about a bull run is that it is a leading indicator, not a trailing on. If you wait to see what is really happening in a company or in the economy as a whole, you will miss the big up moves because they happen on anticipation, not on revelation.

So all you pessimists need to start warning us about the next big thing that will wreck the economy and make us wish we had bought guns and fallout shelters and what-not.

This ones over.

 

[AMOG]

"this one's over"

From a market perspective, I mean. (obviously)

 

[AMOG]

Or maybe even by mid October. <grin>

 

[TopGear]

Personally I think the market is way ahead of any real recovery, so it will fall back. Consumers are the driving force of our economy and they are out of the game but to fall to that level would be a real economy disaster. One in which guns will be the new form of currency.

 

[AMOG]

Yeah, you are right on TG. It is a leading indicator of recovery. It will fall back, and go up again, and fall back... because that's what it always does. But the general trend will be up for a while. The thing is, if you wait for the consumer to be back, and all the cash on the sidelines to be back in the market, then you will be buying at a high and not at a low point. The market alwasy leads.

But I also think recovery is on the way. Maybe not "real" recovery, but real enough to be a boon for a few years. Then there will be another bust and it will be "worst in history since 29", etc.

 

[DaisyDay]

The Dow has been over 10,000 for several weeks now, inching towards 11.000 which we might see by the end of the year.

 

[sdmsanjose]

Update on “Dow Predictions”

Below is a few of those that missed the 2009 prediction by a whole lot. However, I want to give everybody a chance at the year 2011. So at the end of this post I will be giving my 2011 prediction and I invite you all to give yours
Wheristhetruth
Some people have insane-optimism syndrome. Where is the recovery going to come from? What is going to halt the collapse?

wpiman
Dow predictions; 3/3/2009
5400 in October

Joachim
Below 6,000 by the end of the month
Below 5,000 by the end of June.
Below 4,000 by January 1st.
Between 2,000 and 3,200 by the middle of next year.





Breakaway Republic
NO short term [1-3 months] prediction.
Long term prediction : Total collapse before December 25th.



The Nihilist
We're basically doomed.



December 31, 2009 DOW CLOSE 10,423
Ref: www.Market Watch.com


Sdmsanjose’s 2009 prediction”
Between July and December 2009, Dow = 9,000




Sdmsanjose’s 2011 prediction
December 2011 Dow = 11,500

Note:
I think there will be a correction between January and July that will be between 10-15%. However I do believe that the final year will have an increase


What are your prediction for 2011?

​

 

[DaisyDay]

Dow ended about 10,550.

Did the Stimulus plan save the economy from the predicted collapse?

 

[sbbqb7n16]

Dow ended about 10,550.

Did the Stimulus plan save the economy from the predicted collapse?

That remains to be seen. Can't say it did or didn't yet.

The stock market is not the economy (and vice versa). Just because the stock market has rallied does not mean the ecomony has - although historically, the market is a good forward indicator for the economy (ie. the market is predicting that the economy will get better soon).

The stock market has rebounded quite nicely though to a low but reasonable level. The 6000 level was overcompensation for fear - some of the earlier posts in this thread show that. Ironically, this thread started about a week before the market bottomed out. I thought that was ironic

 

[DaisyDay]

I know the stock market is not the economy (and vice versa). Fears that the world economy is on the verge of collapse have been quelled (yes, for the time being).

 

[sbbqb7n16]

I know the stock market is not the economy (and vice versa). Fears that the world economy is on the verge of collapse have been quelled (yes, for the time being).

Gotcha alot of people get those confused. thought that was you. oops!

 

[AMOG]

Dec 2011 is a tough one. The market could be testing record highs and moving toward 14000 by that time. If it is, I will be very happy.

However, I am not so sure of that. the prediction of 11,500 seems too low and too high for me. Let me explain. I think that either we will be north of 13,500 and pushing the record, or we will be way down again. Maybe not to 6000 but well below 10,000. It just depends on what the big "O" does. (the less he does the better).

Mid term elections will spur the market if Republicans win, (not a political statement, just a prediction of how the market will react.) It will fall if Dems hold on. The more Obama tries to "fix" the economy, the worse the market will perform. (notice how when he turned his focus from health care to "fixing the economy" after browns election, the run up ended and we saw a 10% correction?

Also Dec 2011 will see us well into the presidential "silly season" again and that will more likely be damaging to the economy. (the politicians like to tell us how bad things are and how they can fix them. This creates gloom and doom).

So as much as I want to see 13,500 again and I think the fundementas are there for it, I am going to have to say sub 10,000 by Dec 2011 and hope beyond hope that I am wrong.

 

[DaisyDay]

Today, Sept 24, 2010 at 2:22pm the Dow currently stands at 10,841.33

 

[AMOG]

Wow, we crossed 11,000 again. Now we have the weekend to think about it and a jobs report coming.... I'm ultra short financials and sitting in cash where I can.

What are your positions?

 

[DaisyDay]

Wow, we crossed 11,000 again. Now we have the weekend to think about it and a jobs report coming.... I'm ultra short financials and sitting in cash where I can.

What are your positions?

I'm not an active investor - mutual funds, for the most part.

 

[Steve Petersen]

Heard about a study recently, don't remember where.

In a decade following a down decade for the SP500, it has gained. The lowest was 98%, the highest was 289%.

 

[DaisyDay]

11/09/2010 Dow Jones close: 11,346.75

 

[DaisyDay]

12/31/2010 - Dow Jones closes for the year at 11,577.51

 

[jayem]

Total returns (including dividends) of the major indices for this year:

DJIA 14.06%
S & P 500 15.06%
NASDAQ 16.91%

Not too shabby. But the small and mid-cap stocks did better:

Russell 2000 26.85%
S & P 400 Mid-cap 26.64%

Of course, the big winner this year was the DJ Precious Metals Index, up > 35%.

There will be ups and downs, but I'm a long-term stock market bull. I'm sticking with a prediction I made last year. By 2019, we'll see the DJIA hit 20,000, and the S & P at 3,000.

Stay invested, my friends.

 

[sdmsanjose]

I think we have a winner for 12-31-2010. that winner is AMOG with a market prediction of 12,000 on August 29, 2009 (Post #21)
12/31/2010 - Dow Jones closes for the year at 11,577.51
That is a pretty good call for AMOG

AMOG August 29, 2009 Post 21
The end of 2010 is trickier but I'll hang my hat on 12,000 by then.

In the Spring of 2009 the doomsday sayers were very vocal. Here are some of their predictions:

Wheristhetruth
Some people have insane-optimism syndrome. Where is the recovery going to come from? What is going to halt the collapse?

wpiman
Dow predictions; 3/3/2009
5400 in October (2009)

Joachim
Below 6,000 by the end of the month
Below 5,000 by the end of June.
Below 4,000 by January 1st.
Between 2,000 and 3,200 by the middle of next year. (2010)



Breakaway Republic
NO short term [1-3 months] prediction.
Long term prediction : Total collapse before December 25th. (2009)



The Nihilist
We're basically doomed.



For the end of 2009 and 2010 the doomsday predictors lost big time. Maybe they will do better in 2011 but we may not get to find out. The doomsday sayers have disappeared from this thread for the last year and a half. Where are they?

AMOG’s prediction for Dec 2011

So as much as I want to see 13,500 again and I think the fundementas are there for it, I am going to have to say sub 10,000 by Dec 2011 and hope beyond hope that I am wrong.

I shouldn’t go against a winner like AMOG but I think he is wrong and he should have looked at his 13,500 predcition with more optimism.

I am going to take that 13,500 prediction for December 2011.
AMOG maybe right but I hope not as I have moved some of my 401K from cash into stocks for 2011

How about the rest of you what are we going to see at 12-31-2011?