Dow predictions; 3/3/2009

[jayem]

I'm bullish long term. Sometime before 2020: DJIA = 20,000. S & P = 3,000.

This is based on 2 predictions. 1) I see a long term trend of growing consumer markets in Asia--especially India and Indonesia. And the same in Africa and Latin America. This will translate into a growing demand for American products. 2) Eventual fair currency valuation. Yes, these are both optimistic predictions. But the upshot will be vastly increased earnings for American business--even if the products won't be made in the US.

And if--a very big if--SS should ever be even partially privatized, the sky's the limit. Hundreds of billions of dollars will be looking for investment vehicles. Much of that will have to flow into stocks. Where else can it go? My mind reels thinking about what that huge influx of money will do to stock prices. Privatizing SS will be the greatest gift to Wall Street in history.

 

[DaisyDay]

I'm bullish long term. Sometime before 2020: DJIA = 20,000. S & P = 3,000.

This is based on 2 predictions. 1) I see a long term trend of growing consumer markets in Asia--especially India and Indonesia. And the same in Africa and Latin America. This will translate into a growing demand for American products. 2) Eventual fair currency valuation. Yes, these are both optimistic predictions. But the upshot will be vastly increased earnings for American business--even if the products won't be made in the US.

And if--a very big if--SS should ever be even partially privatized, the sky's the limit. Hundreds of billions of dollars will be looking for investment vehicles. Much of that will have to flow into stocks. Where else can it go? My mind reels thinking about what that huge influx of money will do to stock prices. Privatizing SS will be the greatest gift to Wall Street in history.

Before too long, it will be the greatest bailout.

 

[DaisyDay]

February 21, 2012 - we broke 13,000 today.

 

[DaisyDay]

June 5, 2012. We are back down to 12,101 again.

 

[DaisyDay]

August 6th, 2012 - back up to 13,187.28 and holding.

 

[DaisyDay]

For 2012: 52 week 12,035.09 - 13,661.87

Today, Jan 3rd 2013 - 13,413.01

 

[DaisyDay]

Well, we broke 15000.

15,001.94 5/3/2013 at 1:04PM EDT

 

[jayem]

Well, we broke 15000.

15,001.94 5/3/2013 at 1:04PM EDT

Yep. And I sold some mutual fund shares today. I'm going into a real estate trust holding properties in areas that are still bargain-priced. Just like stocks, real estate will turn around eventually, and I want to be there for the ride. But I'm still bullish on stocks for the long term, and I'm holding to my predictions of a 20,000 Dow and 3,000 S & P 500 by 2020.

 

[AMOG]

Fun thread. Thanks for keeping it alive! I don't follow the market as closely as I did a couple of years ago. 15,000 is/was cool! i think it can keep going but expect some natural 'corrections' along the way.

 

[sdmsanjose]

October 25, 2013


Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/627449
15,570



NASDAQ Composite Index /quotes/zigman/12633936
3,943




S&P 500 Index /quotes/zigman/3870025
1,760

 

[Autumnleaf]

You do realize that the reason the stock prices are going up is because they are printing lots of cheap money and much of it is going to banks that are investing in the stock market, right?

The consequence of this is inflation which undermines the whole currency. ie Its bad.

 

[jayem]

You do realize that the reason the stock prices are going up is because they are printing lots of cheap money and much of it is going to banks that are investing in the stock market, right?

The consequence of this is inflation which undermines the whole currency. ie Its bad.

The inflation rate has been low this year--only 1.2% so far. The only time in the last 10 years it was lower was in 2008 at the peak of the recession.

US Inflation Rate | US Inflation

Stocks are doing well because interest rates are so low. (And the Fed is responsible for this.) There's nowhere else to invest your money for a decent return.

 

[DaisyDay]

The inflation rate has been low this year--only 1.2% so far. The only time in the last 10 years it was lower was in 2008 at the peak of the recession.

US Inflation Rate | US Inflation

Stocks are doing well because interest rates are so low. (And the Fed is responsible for this.) There's nowhere else to invest your money for a decent return.

2009 - it went negative at the nadir. Even then, we had folks spouting off about "runaway inflation".

Yesterday, Thursday, November 21, 2013 the Dow hit 16,000.

High so far today - 16,025.74

 

[DaisyDay]

July 3, 2014 - Dow Jones broke 17,000.

 

[WeakSaint]

I the long run stocks are always a good deal. Inflation is only a problem for stocks if it cannot be passed on to consumers in forms of higher prices.

 

[DaisyDay]

17,824.22 - Dec 31, 2014 - down from 18,103.45 earlier in December.