Creationists: Explain your understanding of microevolution and macroevolution

[Phred]

Real-world ecosystems are subject to many more selection conditions than the Kishony experiment. For example, dehydration, starvation, thermal stress, disease, competition, predation,... Consider the use of antibiotics in the real situation rather than what is described by the Kishony experiment. A 10-day course of antibiotics would select for drug resistance in every case if evolution operated in patients the same way as it does in the Kishony experiment. But most patients have a functioning immune system, so if most of the bacterial population is killed by the antibiotic, the small number of remaining drug-resistant variants are removed by the immune system and you have treatment success.

No, many patients start to feel better and don't finish their course of antibiotics. So you kill off 98% of the bugs in your system and leave just the strongest. It's why your doctor always cautions you to finish your prescription. And why we now have a rash of antibiotic resistant microbes out there. We did it to ourselves.

That and we prescribed antibiotics for colds which were unaffected by antibiotics. But rewind and play that scenario over again.

 

[Subduction Zone]

My math very nicely predicts the behavior of the Kishony and Lenski experiments. It also explains why combination therapy works for the treatment of HIV. This math works just fine for predicting the behavior of all empirical examples of DNA evolution.

Why don't you explain to us why it takes a billion replications for each adaptive step in the Kishony experiment?

Really? Where are your peer reviewed papers on this? Such claims without evidence are properly assumed to be false at best.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

Do you believe that such selective conditions in real-world ecosystems are static?

Of course not. But that doesn't help the adaptive evolutionary process, it's more likely to cause extinction. In fact, this strategy is used to help prevent the evolution of herbicide-resistant weeds by rotating herbicides.

If you think that changing selection pressures somehow accelerate adaptive evolution, you should suggest this to Kishony. I know he's tried to do the two drug experiment and it doesn't work. In order to get that experiment to work, he will need a much larger petri dish than his mega-plate. He will need colonies of about a trillion to get each adaptive variant (double mutant).

 

[Frank Robert]

I would say that you are not framing the question correctly. The way you should frame the question is what is the barrier that prevents a lineage from accumulating a set of adaptive mutations? That barrier is the multiplication rule of probabilities. This principle is demonstrated by the Kishony experiment. In the drug-free region, he gets a colony of a billion bacteria and one of those members gets an adaptive mutation. That new variant can grow in the next higher drug concentration region but until its colony must grow to a billion members to get a member with the next adaptive mutation. That variant with two adaptive mutations grows in the next higher drug concentration region but its colony must get a billion members for the third adaptive mutation and so on.

If you need to tell me how what question I should ask you are not answering my question but you are attempting to move the goal posts. Your continuous leaning on the Kishony experiment does not appear to have convinced anyone.

BTW, I have never seen the question on "what is the barrier to macroevoluiton" answered.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

No, many patients start to feel better and don't finish their course of antibiotics. So you kill off 98% of the bugs in your system and leave just the strongest. It's why your doctor always cautions you to finish your prescription. And why we now have a rash of antibiotic resistant microbes out there. We did it to ourselves.

That and we prescribed antibiotics for colds which were unaffected by antibiotics. But rewind and play that scenario over again.

Do you know that sepsis and pneumonia are two of the top medical reasons for hospital admission? Sepsis is the most expensive medical hospitalization. Tell us what the early clinical signs are for sepsis.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

If you need to tell me how what question I should ask you are not answering my question but you are attempting to move the goal posts. Your continuous leaning on the Kishony experiment does not appear to have convinced anyone.

BTW, I have never seen the question on "what is the barrier to macroevoluiton" answered.

Go back to post 771, the barrier is the multiplication rule of probabilities.

 

[Frank Robert]

Go back to post 771, the barrier is the multiplication rule of probabilities.

I don't believe you will find much scientific support for that claim.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

Really? Where are your peer reviewed papers on this? Such claims without evidence are properly assumed to be false at best.

Here's the mathematics for a single selection pressure:
The basic science and mathematics of random mutation and natural selection

Here's the mathematics for multiple simultaneous selection pressures:
The mathematics of random mutation and natural selection for multiple simultaneous selection pressures and the evolution of antimicrobial drug resistance

Both of these papers are in the National Library of Medicine

I have more peer-reviewed papers on the Lenski experiment, recombination, clinical application of these principles for targeted cancer treatment and more if you are interested and have the math skills.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Here's the mathematics for a single selection pressure:
The basic science and mathematics of random mutation and natural selection

Here's the mathematics for multiple simultaneous selection pressures:
The mathematics of random mutation and natural selection for multiple simultaneous selection pressures and the evolution of antimicrobial drug resistance

Both of these papers are in the National Library of Medicine

I have more peer-reviewed papers on the Lenski experiment, recombination, clinical application of these principles for targeted cancer treatment and more if you are interested and have the math skills.

I saw the link to the paper after I posted that. But it does not seem that your paper is well accepted at all. Why was it published in such an off topic journal? Was that the only one that would accept it?

 

[Phred]

Do you know that sepsis and pneumonia are two of the top medical reasons for hospital admission? Sepsis is the most expensive medical hospitalization. Tell us what the early clinical signs are for sepsis.

I do not care.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

I don't believe you will find much scientific support for that claim.

That's why these people can't explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments.

 

[Subduction Zone]

That's why these people can't explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments.

I doubt if you can explain it either. Now you may have done more work than the average creationist, but you seem to have made the mistake of over simplifying the conditions in a prejudicial manner to apply your math.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

I saw the link to the paper after I posted that. But it does not seem that your paper is well accepted at all. Why was it published in such an off topic journal? Was that the only one that would accept it?

There are very few experts in probability theory that also believe in macroevolution. If you want to deal with the problems of drug resistance and have successful targeted cancer treatment, these papers give the correct foundation. That was the correct journal to use. Where are the papers that give the correct mathematics for the Kishony and Lenski experiments in your "on-topic" journals?

 

[Alan Kleinman]

I doubt if you can explain it either. Now you may have done more work than the average creationist, but you seem to have made the mistake of over simplifying the conditions in a prejudicial manner to apply your math.

Here's how you do the mathematics for the Lenski experiment:

Fixation and Adaptation in the Lenski E. coli Long Term Evolution Experiment

 

[Frank Robert]

That's why these people can't explain the Kishony and Lenski experiments.

I have followed a debate where there where population geneticists that have worked with Lenski and whom suggested that you were not correct, the alternative would be that they are wrong.

If I were in a similar position as you I would find an expert in the field that agrees with me and write an article for publication in a legitimate journal.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

I do not care.

Then you should stop making your thoughtless and simple-minded claims about how antibiotics should be used.

 

[Alan Kleinman]

I have followed a debate where there where population geneticists that have worked with Lenski and whom suggested that you were not correct, the alternative would be that they are wrong.

If I were in a similar position as you I would find an expert in the field that agrees with me and write an article for publication in a legitimate journal.

None of your "legitimate journals" give the correct explanation for the Kishony and Lenski experiments. They can't and still believe that macroevolution occurs.

 

[Subduction Zone]

There are very few experts in probability theory that also believe in macroevolution. If you want to deal with the problems of drug resistance and have successful targeted cancer treatment, these papers give the correct foundation. That was the correct journal to use. Where are the papers that give the correct mathematics for the Kishony and Lenski experiments in your "on-topic" journals?

LOL, another unsubstantiated claim. Your paper fails because you did not publish it in an area where proper peers could review it. You should be able to support this claim easily since I can site studies that show far over 90% of all scientists accept the theory of evolution. I seriously doubt if most "experts in probability theory" are as ignorant as you claim.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Here's how you do the mathematics for the Lenski experiment:

Fixation and Adaptation in the Lenski E. coli Long Term Evolution Experiment

Nope, I am sorry but you are not a source and citing an article that you wrote from an off topic journal does not help you.

 

[pitabread]

None of your "legitimate journals" give the correct explanation for the Kishony and Lenski experiments. They can't and still believe that macroevolution occurs.

Everyone is wrong but you, huh?

I mean, there's not much you can do but publish and see if anyone gives credence to your work. Although based on the minimal citations of your work and the conversations on Peaceful Science, it doesn't look it's taken very seriously.