Covid19 will kill 20% of world population?

[Halbhh]

some of the worrying is generated by the governments media etc. i think.

surely no one is talking about the 140,000 deaths today or 22 million in the last 4 1/2 months. yet still 331,000 births a day that is around a net global population growth of 191,000 a day. I don't see a virus sinking anything.

For the virus to have a impact the daily death count would have to be around 200,000 a day, currently is about 13,000 a day.

You mean it isn't killing more people than are being born? Right, it does not, perhaps partly because we understand it enough to wear masks, and thus slow it down powerfully. So it only kills millions, and probably will stay under 10 million dead, instead of 100 million +. Because of our awareness, mask wearing, and increasingly because of the vaccines also. Hopefully this one will continue to fade out in the next year, but...it's too soon to toss caution to the wind. Only the vaccinated should consider themselves relatively safe, and everyone else will need masks for now.

 

[BeyondET]

You mean it isn't killing more people than are being born? Right, it does not, perhaps partly because we understand it enough to wear masks, and thus slow it down powerfully. So it only kills millions, and probably will stay under 10 million dead, instead of 100 million +. Because of our awareness, mask wearing, and increasingly because of the vaccines also. Hopefully this one will continue to fade out in the next year, but...it's too soon to toss caution to the wind. Only the vaccinated should consider themselves relatively safe, and everyone else will need masks for now.

I agree vaccination is helping it to fade out faster, i don't think it would reach that level to be more than global net growth that would be 200k deaths a day from covid considering about 40% of cases have no symptoms and about 55% mild symptoms. sadly about 25,000 die each day from starvation a totally preventable death. during the major covid lock downs, starvation skyrocketed people where dying three times more from starvation because of global shutdown of supplies, kind of stuck in a rock and a hard spot. wear mask save lives shutdown supply chain take lives.

 

[Halbhh]

I agree vaccination is helping it to fade out faster, i don't think it would reach that level to be more than global net growth that would be 200k deaths a day from covid considering about 40% of cases have no symptoms and about 55% mild symptoms. sadly about 25,000 die each day from starvation a totally preventable death. during the major covid lock downs, starvation skyrocketed people where dying three times more from starvation because of global shutdown of supplies, kind of stuck in a rock and a hard spot. wear mask save lives shutdown supply chain take lives.

Once we figured out finally, after 6 or 8 months, that masks are fairly effective if worn correctly, shut downs were then no longer the best tool. People could learn to wear masks well, in a surge, like the last, recent surge in Michigan earlier this year (2021), and a shut down avoided.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Your friend doesn't have a clue about covid. Certain age ranges are a lot more likely to die from it children are a rarity to die from Covid and they make up a large portion of the population so the 20% has to come out of older people likely in the 40+ range ratcheting up as the age does. It would possibly end up being 35-40% of adults and so far prior to all the masking and stuff we are at a level that is about 1/3 of what the spanish flue deaths were if you take it as a percentage of the population. 600K deaths then is about the same percentage as 2.1 million now in the US.

 

[BeyondET]

Once we figured out finally, after 6 or 8 months, that masks are fairly effective if worn correctly, shut downs were then no longer the best tool. People could learn to wear masks well, in a surge, like the last, recent surge in Michigan earlier this year (2021), and a shut down avoided.

some states didn't really have a lock/shut down and made it ok. i know it was panic city when it came around but we are learning more about it now.

 

[Halbhh]

some states didn't really have a lock/shut down and made it ok. i know it was panic city when it came around but we are learning more about it now.

Right. The first big surge in April 2020 was mostly in a few large cities -- and the strongest surge among those was in New York City, which makes sense, of course, as it's the most heavily trafficked city with incoming foreign flights in the U.S.

A second big disadvantage of dense cities is pretty obvious: people crowded closer together, where they can spread the virus more rapidly (each infectious person would tend to encounter more people).

So, many places in the U.S. had very little cases at all in April 2020, though we didn't know that yet, as testing was hard to come by back then, with the CDC originated test just a total failure for a while.

It's easy to see in retrospect that the nationwide lockdown wasn't needed. A few big cities needed to lock down, and people needed to avoid traveling to/from them.

If we'd had a crystal ball, that would have been a good strategy until testing became more widely available.

 

[BeyondET]

Right. The first big surge in April 2020 was mostly in a few large cities -- and the strongest surge among those was in New York City, which makes sense, of course, as it's the most heavily trafficked city with incoming foreign flights in the U.S.

A second big disadvantage of dense cities is pretty obvious: people crowded closer together, where they can spread the virus more rapidly (each infectious person would tend to encounter more people).

So, many places in the U.S. had very little cases at all in April 2020, though we didn't know that yet, as testing was hard to come by back then, with the CDC originated test just a total failure for a while.

It's easy to see in retrospect that the nationwide lockdown wasn't needed. A few big cities needed to lock down, and people needed to avoid traveling to/from them.

If we'd had a crystal ball, that would have been a good strategy until testing became more widely available.

I have heard lately there is heavy traffic leaving NY city hehe.

 

[Halbhh]

Your friend doesn't have a clue about covid. Certain age ranges are a lot more likely to die from it children are a rarity to die from Covid and they make up a large portion of the population so the 20% has to come out of older people likely in the 40+ range ratcheting up as the age does. It would possibly end up being 35-40% of adults and so far prior to all the masking and stuff we are at a level that is about 1/3 of what the spanish flue deaths were if you take it as a percentage of the population. 600K deaths then is about the same percentage as 2.1 million now in the US.

Ok. Did you notice the reports out of India that young people are notably dying of their new variant? And the same in Brazil: doctors are noticing their new variant is making critically ill and/or killing the young far more than before. It's a change.
e.g. Why Is Covid Killing So Many Young Children in Brazil? Doctors Are Baffled

Fortunately though, it seem the vaccines work against these 2 variants(!)....I hope that's correct, but that's what I've heard.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Ok. Did you notice the reports out of India that young people are notably dying of their new variant? And the same in Brazil: doctors are noticing their new variant is making critically ill and/or killing the young far more than before. It's a change.
e.g. Why Is Covid Killing So Many Young Children in Brazil? Doctors Are Baffled

Fortunately though, it seem the vaccines work against these 2 variants(!)....I hope that's correct, but that's what I've heard.

Interesting. I did hear a vaccine makes it easier to catch a new strain of covid somewhere but nothing about children and young. I was afraid that "hiding" from C19 would lead to worse strains and that it may be better to bite the bullet and take the hit on population loss and get herd immunity over it so new variants don't have time to mutate and mature but people hid and gave it a year and he we are.

 

[Halbhh]

Interesting. I did hear a vaccine makes it easier to catch a new strain of covid somewhere but nothing about children and young. I was afraid that "hiding" from C19 would lead to worse strains and that it may be better to bite the bullet and take the hit on population loss and get herd immunity over it so new variants don't have time to mutate and mature but people hid and gave it a year and he we are.

The way the variants -- the worse strains -- arise is when a lot of people -- larger numbers -- get the virus, and give it a lot more places/opportunities to mutate.

In order to get more mutations, you need more virus replications -- since the mutations occur just at a low rate per replication.

It's not just how much time, but instead it's how much virus comes into existence, because each new viral particle is another slight chance to mutate.

 

[Sophrosyne]

The way the variants -- the worse strains -- arise is when a lot of people -- larger numbers -- get the virus, and give it a lot more places/opportunities to mutate.

In order to get more mutations, you need more virus replications -- since the mutations occur just at a low rate per replication.

It's not just how much time, but instead it's how much virus comes into existence, because each new viral particle is another slight chance to mutate.

Then why did it not mutate a year ago?

 

[BeyondET]

Then why did it not mutate a year ago?

It did when it left wuhan, a RNA type that mutates and why the common cold can’t be eradicated. but I’ve read they are getting closer but how close lol.

Since it’s arrival in the United States , as of February 2021, 12,754 SARS-CoV-2 strains just in the U.S, kind of freaky how viruses mutate so fast.

 

[Sophrosyne]

It did when it left wuhan, a RNA type that mutates and why the common cold can’t be eradicated. but I’ve read they are getting closer but how close lol.

Since it’s arrival in the United States , as of February 2021, 12,754 SARS-CoV-2 strains just in the U.S, kind of freaky how viruses mutate so fast.

well hopefully the vaccines don't get neutered by new variants otherwise we are likely to see politicians freak out and put us all in prisons with masks on for another year.

 

[BeyondET]

well hopefully the vaccines don't get neutered by new variants otherwise we are likely to see politicians freak out and put us all in prisons with masks on for another year.

Probably in 2022 lol, hopefully this doesn’t become a yo yo style of living one year on one year off fear running rampant and or fear of loosing control

 

[BeyondET]

I’ve been reading there was a Ebola break out last January/February didn’t mount to much but media was slow reporting it. Now that is a killer 90% don’t make it. If that ever got out of hand huh

 

[Sophrosyne]

I’ve been reading there was a Ebola break out last January/February didn’t mount to much but media was slow reporting it. Now that is a killer 90% don’t make it. If that ever got out of hand huh

Ebola has been around for awhile and I guess rather predictable while C19 hasn't and so far the "predictors" of this virus have shown a rather inept ability to handle it from the start they have bumbled, fumbled, and stumbled their way through it rather blindly if I say so and are still shaking their head what to do/say next as they seem to be clueless and are taking advice from almost everyone even politicians instead of acting like experts. One could say a child could predict things better than what they can. I figure C19 could turn into C22/24 whatever. I'm not into conspiracy theories but as evasive as this bug seems to be it is almost like it was purposely engineered to cause trouble and trouble seemingly only for man, seems to be no other species is affected that I've heard.

 

[BeyondET]

.

 

[BeyondET]

Ebola has been around for awhile and I guess rather predictable while C19 hasn't and so far the "predictors" of this virus have shown a rather inept ability to handle it from the start they have bumbled, fumbled, and stumbled their way through it rather blindly if I say so and are still shaking their head what to do/say next as they seem to be clueless and are taking advice from almost everyone even politicians instead of acting like experts. One could say a child could predict things better than what they can. I figure C19 could turn into C22/24 whatever. I'm not into conspiracy theories but as evasive as this bug seems to be it is almost like it was purposely engineered to cause trouble and trouble seemingly only for man, seems to be no other species is affected that I've heard.

I agree it hasn’t been a professional approach. I’ve been reading there is debate starting back up about the origin of it again rightly so I am not buying that the wuhan institute of virology which was studying dangerous bat viruses had nothing to do with it. Back in late 2017 I read that U.S. diplomats and officials at the Beijing Embassy reported that the lab’s own scientists had reported a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely run the high containment laboratory.

 

[Sophrosyne]

I agree it hasn’t been a professional approach. I’ve been reading there is debate starting back up about the origin of it again rightly so I am not buying that the wuhan institute of virology which was studying dangerous bat viruses had nothing to do with it. Back in late 2017 I read that U.S. diplomats and officials at the Beijing Embassy reported that the lab’s own scientists had reported a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely run the high containment laboratory.

The problem is with this thinking is if you aren't going to investigate it yourself or have resources to do so and legal power to protect yourself if you get in a sticky situation plus political power to overcome those who would somehow profit from this type of thing occurring then in the end all you are going to do is make people who have already decided that there is no possibility of this being real and get yourself labeled as a conspiracy theorist and a loon. I have seen a few threads somewhere (can't remember where) about Dr. Fauci being connected with Wuhan virus studies over there either funding or helping the research or whatever. I seriously doubt with the left in power who are enamored over Fauci that any in depth investigation would start by the government and would consider that likely any private investigation (real journalism) into the matter would be met with opposition from those who have greatly enriched themselves over Covid 19. Many people have made a fortune and I think some could be connected with all the shutdowns and limitations put on businesses such that instead of being able to shop and eat everywhere there has been you are essentially "funneled" into large store chains and online portals and delivery apps have also made a killing. I've seen dozens of fast food places fold since this started probably over 2/3 of them were because of Covid and not being allowed indoor dining. People who are out shopping often want to stop and eat they don't want to eat in their vehicle especially when it is mid summer or winter when it is very hot or very cold and you have to run the engine all during that time and waste gas and the noise of the fans etc.
And then there is all the mask sales and hand sanitizer and so on. Masks at the start were something like $1 each and you can buy them in bulk for 75 cents each. I am almost sure there is less than a dime in materials and manufacturing of a mask..... likely a few pennies each. Hand sanitizer was overpriced too now there is bottles of it everywhere for dirt cheap but it was 3-5 times as much in the beginning.

I don't think that a lot of huge profit was known in advance though but I think that decisions to close down businesses very likely in some places were made with profit to those left open in mind.

If you want to keep things closed which will continue to funnel money to certain people who in turn funnel some of it back to certain people....... well you can see why some of the shutdowns may have happened and if you want to keep things shut down you have to have a reason and convincing people either they will die or be guilty of murder can convince those without good thinking skills who blindly trust people in power that they "like" they will buy into all of it....... just like this one guy talked about thinks 20% will die from C19..... well it could happen if they keep getting more strains that defeat vaccines and natural immunities but at this time the logic/odds in no way agree with that assumption.

 

[BeyondET]

The problem is with this thinking is if you aren't going to investigate it yourself or have resources to do so and legal power to protect yourself if you get in a sticky situation plus political power to overcome those who would somehow profit from this type of thing occurring then in the end all you are going to do is make people who have already decided that there is no possibility of this being real and get yourself labeled as a conspiracy theorist and a loon. I have seen a few threads somewhere (can't remember where) about Dr. Fauci being connected with Wuhan virus studies over there either funding or helping the research or whatever. I seriously doubt with the left in power who are enamored over Fauci that any in depth investigation would start by the government and would consider that likely any private investigation (real journalism) into the matter would be met with opposition from those who have greatly enriched themselves over Covid 19. Many people have made a fortune and I think some could be connected with all the shutdowns and limitations put on businesses such that instead of being able to shop and eat everywhere there has been you are essentially "funneled" into large store chains and online portals and delivery apps have also made a killing. I've seen dozens of fast food places fold since this started probably over 2/3 of them were because of Covid and not being allowed indoor dining. People who are out shopping often want to stop and eat they don't want to eat in their vehicle especially when it is mid summer or winter when it is very hot or very cold and you have to run the engine all during that time and waste gas and the noise of the fans etc.
And then there is all the mask sales and hand sanitizer and so on. Masks at the start were something like $1 each and you can buy them in bulk for 75 cents each. I am almost sure there is less than a dime in materials and manufacturing of a mask..... likely a few pennies each. Hand sanitizer was overpriced too now there is bottles of it everywhere for dirt cheap but it was 3-5 times as much in the beginning.

I don't think that a lot of huge profit was known in advance though but I think that decisions to close down businesses very likely in some places were made with profit to those left open in mind.

If you want to keep things closed which will continue to funnel money to certain people who in turn funnel some of it back to certain people....... well you can see why some of the shutdowns may have happened and if you want to keep things shut down you have to have a reason and convincing people either they will die or be guilty of murder can convince those without good thinking skills who blindly trust people in power that they "like" they will buy into all of it....... just like this one guy talked about thinks 20% will die from C19..... well it could happen if they keep getting more strains that defeat vaccines and natural immunities but at this time the logic/odds in no way agree with that assumption.

i would agree, in my opinion the china regime who controls china now is well on its way to being the global top dictatorship they certainly have dodged the spot light by i think having people of other governments in their pockets. the leadership "communist" have learned from past wars and other communist governments how to be a Awake sleeping giant.