"Changing weather patterns have increased the frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events," says Church Mutual about dropping coverage in TX

[essentialsaltes]

Hundreds of United Methodist Churches lose insurance, struggle to find new policy​

Reed said there are around 300 United Methodist Churches within the Rio Texas Conference. Reed told KXAN that until recently, the conference had a single policy plan for all of its churches, with the same provider for generations.

Church Mutual Insurance Company statement:

Labor and material costs have increased significantly in recent years, which impacts insurers’ costs to repair and rebuild to settle claims. Changing weather patterns have increased the frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events, leading to huge losses for the insurance industry. According to NOAA, in 2023, the U.S. experienced a record breaking 28 major weather-related disasters, causing an estimated total of $92.9 billion in damages. This was the fourth consecutive year there have been 18 or more separate billion-dollar disasters, creating a consistent pattern of large catastrophic weather events becoming the new normal.

 

[Belk]

I guess it is a good thing APGW is fake... er... Not man made.. er.... Costs to much money to fix. I am sure there is some excuse for further inaction here.

 

[Richard T]

Hundreds of United Methodist Churches lose insurance, struggle to find new policy​

Reed said there are around 300 United Methodist Churches within the Rio Texas Conference. Reed told KXAN that until recently, the conference had a single policy plan for all of its churches, with the same provider for generations.

Church Mutual Insurance Company statement:

Labor and material costs have increased significantly in recent years, which impacts insurers’ costs to repair and rebuild to settle claims. Changing weather patterns have increased the frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events, leading to huge losses for the insurance industry. According to NOAA, in 2023, the U.S. experienced a record breaking 28 major weather-related disasters, causing an estimated total of $92.9 billion in damages. This was the fourth consecutive year there have been 18 or more separate billion-dollar disasters, creating a consistent pattern of large catastrophic weather events becoming the new normal.

Seems it would be easy with so many church to just pool the insurance funds and pay out for any damages each year. Could be they will save money anyway. Lots of churches all in different locations seems like it could work. Also, reinsurers might be willing to provide a policy where if x amount of dollars are exceeded for the entire groups then they would cover the rest. When coverage is not available for many homeowners like Florida, the state has their own insurer. Prices are quite high though.

 

[durangodawood]

Seems it would be easy with so many church to just pool the insurance funds and pay out for any damages each year. Could be they will save money anyway. Lots of churches all in different locations seems like it could work. Also, reinsurers might be willing to provide a policy where if x amount of dollars are exceeded for the entire groups then they would cover the rest. When coverage is not available for many homeowners like Florida, the state has their own insurer. Prices are quite high though.

I could see self insurance making sense for a large organization where risks are distributed over a wide area.

But... I do think the increase in weather disasters will (is) overwhelm any savings they could realize by withdrawing from the current capitalist insurance mode.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Seems it would be easy with so many church to just pool the insurance funds and pay out for any damages each year.

That's literally what insurance is. The trouble with insuring against natural disasters is that the claims are correlated with each other, so when something bad happens, the insurer is on the hook for a lot.

If you analogize it to a slot machines: If you know the odds that a machine will pay out, and you know how much it'll pay out, then you can make some reasonable predictions as to how much money the casino will make and how much cash they have to have on hand to cover jackpots. Yes, "randomness is lumpy," so the prediction won't be perfect, but the more time and the more machines you have, the more accurate it becomes.

This assumes that none of the slot machines talk to each other and that the likelihood of one player hitting a jackpot has zero influence on the likelihood of another player hitting a jackpot (i.e. they're not correlated). That's more-or-less how car accidents and heart attacks and (non-wildfire-related) house fires work - my neighbor having a heart attack doesn't cause me to have a heart attack. But that's not how natural disasters work. Natural disasters are big, so one person making a claim almost assuredly means that a whole lot of their neighbors are also going to make claims, and the bigger the disaster, the more claims will be made. In slot machine terms, the bigger the jackpot, the more neighboring jackpots hit. And because natural disasters are relatively rare and highly variable (at least when compared to car crashes and heart attacks), it's hard to calculate odds for them and price the insurance rates accordingly.

 

[Richard T]

That's literally what insurance is. The trouble with insuring against natural disasters is that the claims are correlated with each other, so when something bad happens, the insurer is on the hook for a lot.

If you analogize it to a slot machines: If you know the odds that a machine will pay out, and you know how much it'll pay out, then you can make some reasonable predictions as to how much money the casino will make and how much cash they have to have on hand to cover jackpots. Yes, "randomness is lumpy," so the prediction won't be perfect, but the more time and the more machines you have, the more accurate it becomes.

This assumes that none of the slot machines talk to each other and that the likelihood of one player hitting a jackpot has zero influence on the likelihood of another player hitting a jackpot (i.e. they're not correlated). That's more-or-less how car accidents and heart attacks and (non-wildfire-related) house fires work - my neighbor having a heart attack doesn't cause me to have a heart attack. But that's not how natural disasters work. Natural disasters are big, so one person making a claim almost assuredly means that a whole lot of their neighbors are also going to make claims, and the bigger the disaster, the more claims will be made. In slot machine terms, the bigger the jackpot, the more neighboring jackpots hit. And because natural disasters are relatively rare and highly variable (at least when compared to car crashes and heart attacks), it's hard to calculate odds for them and price the insurance rates accordingly.

Yes, you are right. If the churches were all near each other they could not self insure. If they were random in many states, it is unlikely that claims would be too catastrophic all at once. If mortgages are involved it is more complicated too. I imagine there will be a shift in how they build churches to mitigate risks too. sSained glass windows might have to go or at least get hurricane shutters.

 

[The Barbarian]

I could see self insurance making sense for a large organization where risks are distributed over a wide area.

It wouldn't change the reality. The premiums for self-insurance would be only slightly lower being covered by an insurer, and in many cases, would be higher. Assuming one didn't want the fund to go insolvent from losses.

And catastrophic losses like weather events are the most likely to cause it. Problem isn't crooked insurance companies, but rather losses so high that the companies can no longer write business in some of those areas.

 

[Estrid]

I guess it is a good thing APGW is fake... ageer... Not man made.. er.... Costs to much money to fix. I am sure there is some excuse for further inaction here.

What is fake, or rather corrrupt, incompetent,
stupid- but mostly corrupt- is zoning that permits
building in flood plains, fire prone areas, near
eroding sea cliffs, on active faults etc.

That ain't agw.

Show me a house destroyed by "agw".

 

[durangodawood]

....
Show me a house destroyed by "agw".

Thats asking for specific individual weather events to be attributable to climate change. Its not a reasonable demand even if agw is real and causing more property destruction on average.

This may change tho as sea level rise start causing havoc.

 

[Estrid]

Thats asking for specific individual weather events to be attributable to climate change. Its not a reasonable demand even if agw is real and causing more property destruction on average.

This may change tho as sea level rise start causing havoc.

Sea level rise is real enough. Has been,
for 15k yrs or so.

Meantime, areas prone to landslides,
floods etc are zoned for housing.

That is the source of the insurance problem,
not cow- farts.

 

[The Barbarian]

Show me a house destroyed by "agw".

The effect is more like "I can't afford to insure my house on the Gulf coast, because insurance company losses put premiums out of reach."

That's becoming the reality. And yeah, that's agw.

 

[Estrid]

The effect is more like "I can't afford to insure my house on the Gulf coast, because insurance company losses put premiums out of reach."

That's becoming the reality. And yeah, that's agw.

And where/why the losses?

Nothing that could be even loosely connected
to agw would account for giving* a zoning ok
for mcmansions on California's notoriouslfireproofne,,
slide prone hills nor at thev edge of eroding seacliffs.

Or below sea level in Louisiana.

Ftm, in the way when the Mssissippi breaks into
the Atchafalaya river.

Stupid corrupt building and zoning codes are the root of insurance problems not lawnmowers.


* see greed and bribery

 

[weekEd]

Can I make money insuring empty buildings?

 

[Estrid]

Can I make money insuring empty buildings?

Maybe not you

 

[Belk]

What is fake, or rather corrrupt, incompetent,
stupid- but mostly corrupt- is zoning that permits
building in flood plains, fire prone areas, near
eroding sea cliffs, on active faults etc.

That ain't agw.

Show me a house destroyed by "agw".

You want me to show you an individual house destroyed by a global phenomenon?

 

[Estrid]

You want me to show you an individual house destroyed by a global phenomenon?

Nah.
But the actual topic was insurance, cost, reason for.

 

[The Barbarian]

There's been no end of building houses where they shouldn't be. But what's socking the insurance companies is catastrophic losses by very strong storms over a large area. Even worse, the storms tend to be slower-moving, which exacerbates the damage. It's not hard to figure out; the greater the losses, the higher premiums must be to pay for them. Eventually, the cost is greater than people can afford.

 

[The Barbarian]

Ftm, in the way when the Mssissippi breaks into
the Atchafalaya river.

And that's inevitable. The Corps of Engineers can delay it, but it will happen. But that's not why insurance premiums are rising along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts. Warmer planet, warmer oceans. Warmer oceans, more powerful storms. More powerful storms, greater losses. And eventually, insurance companies give up and pull out of the market, or have to raise premiums to a point that they are unaffordable.

It's not rocket science.

 

[Estrid]

And that's inevitable. The Corps of Engineers can delay it, but it will happen. But that's not why insurance premiums are rising along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts. Warmer planet, warmer oceans. Warmer oceans, more powerful storms. More powerful storms, greater losses. And eventually, insurance companies give up and pull out of the market, or have to raise premiums to a point that they are unaffordable.

It's not rocket science.

With or without "more powerful" which may or
may not occur, more buildings, more expensive ones,
construction in places zoned for homes which
should not have so zoned were going to end up
being uninsurable.

 

[The Barbarian]

With or without "more powerful" which may or
may not occur

Already occurring.

Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger faster than they did 40 years ago​

Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger faster than they did 40 years ago

The probability of a weak hurricane strengthening to become a major hurricane within 24 hours has more than doubled in recent decades.

www.popsci.com

Journal of Geophysical Research
10 July 2008

Increasing hurricane wave power along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts​

more buildings, more expensive ones,
construction in places zoned for homes which
should not have so zoned were going to end up
being uninsurable.

If that were all that was happening, you wouldn't see insurance rates rising. The premium basis would remain the same for a given location and valuation. But it's increasing for homes that have been there for decades, far beyond any increase in value..