An experiment with Bing chatbot.

[sfs]

Bing's solving of the logical problem is post #9 is a broader application of pattern recognition.

It may be that a sufficiently complex LLM will develop (or already has develop) a model of physical reality as an efficient way of modeling the language in its training data.

 

[Halbhh]

Lets examine an actual historical event which comes as close as possible to what happens when you over 60% of your workforce.
This occurred in 14th century Europe with the advent of the Black Death.
Like ancient Egypt the economy of medieval Europe was based on an agrarian economy.
Medieval agriculture was considerably more advanced than New Kingdom agriculture which was highly dependent on the annual Nile floods.

It's estimated that around 50% of the labour force was wiped out by the Black Death.
Since there were fewer workers on the land, food production declined leading to shortages and famine.
If the Black Death didn't kill you, a compromised immune system as a result of a starvation diet in the appalling sanitary conditions of the time did.
The increased demand for labour led to considerable social change such as the gradual destruction of the feudal system as land workers could now negotiate for better conditions.

So the idea that ancient Egypt could somehow compensate for a loss over 60% of its peasant workforce without suffering the consequences of economic, political and social collapse is not realistic.

Replying to the last sentence: if they had to support an aging population of mostly 50-70 yr olds, that would be quite hard, and they'd experience plenty of starvation I'd guess.

But (of course, as you'd guess) the population of Egyptian at that time was far far younger than that:

"People in ancient Egypt did not grow very old. Very high infant death rates due to high risks of infections resulted in an average age at death of 19 years. However those who survived childhood had a life expectancy of 30 years for women* and 34 years for men."

Old age in ancient Egypt | UCL Researchers in Museums

UCL Homepage

blogs.ucl.ac.uk

Ergo, they will go to work in the fields, rather than literally starve to death, and it's not high tech skilled labor to labor in the fields, and the Egyptian overseers -- who already knew how to farm -- would continue to know how to manage workers, just as they had already been doing....

So, add these into our scenario -- while of course their artisan population might have to go to work in the fields, they are not going to starve, we could guess....

Sure, the artisan economy might collapse. But....that's not like today in America. They would not have 'unemployment insurance' -- they would have to go to work, and they would go to work....

Ergo, the economy would merely transition. Faster than the modern U.S. could do, is easy to see.

 

[essentialsaltes]

With all the chatbot posts in this forum, I decided to test Bing with science and maths questions of various difficulty.

In a rather improbable coincidence, an astronomer friend also tried out chatGPT recently...

ME
Write a short description of the galaxy Messier 74 that is several paragraphs long and intended for the general public.

ChatGPT
Messier 74 is a stunning spiral galaxy located in the constellation Pisces, approximately 32 million light-years away from Earth. It is also known as NGC 628 and is one of the most beautiful galaxies in the night sky. The galaxy is part of a group of galaxies known as the M74 Group, which also includes several other galaxies.
The galaxy was first discovered by the French astronomer Pierre Méchain in 1780, and later cataloged by Charles Messier in 1781. Messier 74 has a diameter of about 95,000 light-years, making it slightly smaller than our own Milky Way galaxy. It contains billions of stars, and its beautiful spiral arms are dotted with star-forming regions, where new stars are born.
What makes Messier 74 particularly interesting is its unusual shape. Unlike most spiral galaxies, which have two or four spiral arms, Messier 74 has a whopping six spiral arms! This makes it a favorite target for amateur astronomers and astrophotographers, who can capture its intricate structure with long-exposure images.
Observations of Messier 74 have revealed a number of interesting features. For example, the galaxy has a bright nucleus, which is thought to contain a supermassive black hole. It also has a number of satellite galaxies, which orbit around it and are gravitationally bound to it.
Overall, Messier 74 is a fascinating object to study for astronomers, and a beautiful sight to behold for amateur stargazers. Its intricate structure and unusual shape make it a unique addition to the tapestry of galaxies in our universe.

ME
[Thinking: Huh? Six spiral arms? I’ve never heard that.]
Where did you get the information about the six spiral arms?

ChatGPT
The information about Messier 74 having six spiral arms comes from various observations and studies carried out by astronomers using different telescopes and instruments. One such study was conducted by a team of astronomers using the Subaru Telescope in Hawaii, which produced a high-resolution image of the galaxy's spiral structure. The study, published in The Astrophysical Journal, revealed that Messier 74 has six spiral arms, which is quite unusual compared to most other spiral galaxies that have two or four arms.
Other studies, including those carried out using the Hubble Space Telescope, have also confirmed the presence of six spiral arms in Messier 74. By analyzing the distribution of gas and stars within the galaxy, astronomers have been able to map out its spiral arms and study their structure and dynamics.
Overall, the information about Messier 74 having six spiral arms is based on multiple observations and studies conducted by astronomers using different telescopes and instruments, and is widely accepted in the astronomical community.

ME
[Googling “M74 six spiral arms subaru” and finding absolutely nothing beyond statements that it has TWO spiral arms.]
I can not find the source you cited on the six spiral arms.

ChatGPT
I apologize for the confusion. The information regarding the six spiral arms of Messier 74 is based on earlier studies, which were later found to be incorrect. Recent observations using the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Subaru Telescope have shown that Messier 74 actually has a normal two-armed spiral structure, similar to most other spiral galaxies.
It is important to note that scientific knowledge is constantly evolving as new observations and discoveries are made, and sometimes earlier findings may be revised or overturned by new data. As an AI language model, I rely on the information that is available in my knowledge database, which is updated on a regular basis. However, I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information to the best of my abilities based on the available sources.

 

[sjastro]

Replying to the last sentence: if they had to support an aging population of mostly 50-70 yr olds, that would be quite hard, and they'd experience plenty of starvation I'd guess.

But (of course, as you'd guess) the population of Egyptian at that time was far far younger than that:

"People in ancient Egypt did not grow very old. Very high infant death rates due to high risks of infections resulted in an average age at death of 19 years. However those who survived childhood had a life expectancy of 30 years for women* and 34 years for men."

Old age in ancient Egypt | UCL Researchers in Museums

UCL Homepage

blogs.ucl.ac.uk

Ergo, they will go to work in the fields, rather than literally starve to death, and it's not high tech skilled labor to labor in the fields, and the Egyptian overseers -- who already knew how to farm -- would continue to know how to manage workers, just as they had already been doing....

So, add these into our scenario -- while of course their artisan population might have to go to work in the fields, they are not going to starve, we could guess....

Sure, the artisan economy might collapse. But....that's not like today in America. They would not have 'unemployment insurance' -- they would have to go to work, and they would go to work....

Ergo, the economy would merely transition. Faster than the modern U.S. could do, is easy to see.

I fail to see how life expectancy plays any role here given the average life span in feudal Europe during the Middle Ages was around 30 years.
Supporting an aging population is a modern phenomenon.

It’s not just the production of food which requires labour, ancient Egypt faced the same issues as any modern economy.
Production → Transportation→ Storage→ Distribution.
The collapse of the Old Kingdom of which the absence of annual Nile floods played a significant role leading to famine was not simply due to a lack of food production.

In ancient Egypt, food crises were most often occasioned by bad harvests following low or destructive inundations. Food crises developed into famines when administrative officials—state or local— were unable to organize storage and redistribution systems. Food deprivation, aggravated by hunger-related diseases, led to increased mortality, migrations, and social collapse.

https://escholarship.org/content/qt2nv473z9/qt2nv473z9.pdf

The development of the mouldboard and heavy plow drawn by teams of horses in medieval times was superior to the light plows used in ancient Egypt and not only reduced the amount of manual labour required but opened up more land for cultivation.
Despite the technological advantage it failed to prevent famine and social upheaval when 50% of the workforce was wiped out by the Black Death.
Hence it doesn’t require much imagination for ancient Egypt with over 60% of the population disappearing, a greater reliance on manual labour in the field and a similar age population profile to experience similar if not worse consequences.

 

[Halbhh]

I fail to see how life expectancy plays any role here given the average life span in feudal Europe during the Middle Ages was around 30 years.
Supporting an aging population is a modern phenomenon.

It’s not just the production of food which requires labour, ancient Egypt faced the same issues as any modern economy.
Production → Transportation→ Storage→ Distribution.
The collapse of the Old Kingdom of which the absence of annual Nile floods played a significant role leading to famine was not simply due to a lack of food production.

https://escholarship.org/content/qt2nv473z9/qt2nv473z9.pdf

The development of the mouldboard and heavy plow drawn by teams of horses in medieval times was superior to the light plows used in ancient Egypt and not only reduced the amount of manual labour required but opened up more land for cultivation.
Despite the technological advantage it failed to prevent famine and social upheaval when 50% of the workforce was wiped out by the Black Death.
Hence it doesn’t require much imagination for ancient Egypt with over 60% of the population disappearing, a greater reliance on manual labour in the field and a similar age population profile to experience similar if not worse consequences.

Nice little summary type article, and I read it.

Also though, per the article I linked to you about the size of the exodus, it might have been closer to ~100k Israelites leaving vs an Egyptian population of perhaps 3-4M, so that would be perhaps more like ~3-6% of the workforce in that scenario. (see the GotQuestions article I linked to you)

But, there's a more key other factor i can offer information about other than exodus size.

Having actually worked on a small farm, I can relate that labor is very easy to substitute in, with no previous experience required.

I found this out, to my own distress at being assigned more and more work because other family members that had been doing those parts stopped as I became old enough to take over their tasks.

It's just not needed to be already skilled to do basic farm work so long as even one person is around even briefly to instruct you in what to do.

In just 2-5 minutes, they can instruct you and give you many hours of work....

I'm not kidding.
It's just fact.

This isn't really skilled labor, especially not in the most basic farming like would be done in the ancient past.

So...an Egyptian overseer (who had already in the past been overseeing slaves...) could command I bet even 15-20 separate groups of laborers in a day no doubt, if he had a chariot to go around in.

Just like he'd been doing already for years.

So, it would be as I explained, in our scenario. It's not a wild speculation, but a very reasonable expectation based on experience.

Artisans and previously not working individuals would be needed to work in the fields. And they would have to do so. And they'd be able to do so. (that's where the age of the populace comes in -- those 15-30 year olds would be perfectly able to do that work...)

What would be gone is the previous economy. Life for Egyptians would become much more laborious.....and much less luxurious.

So long as the Nile inundations continued normally, they'd be fine.

Just fine.

Failed inundations = famine we can guess, but...disasters happen now and then.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Nice little summary type article, and I read it.

Also though, per the article I linked to you about the size of the exodus, it might have been closer to ~100k Israelites leaving vs an Egyptian population of perhaps 3-4M, so that would be perhaps more like ~3-6% of the workforce in that scenario. (see the GotQuestions article I linked to you)

The link must be off page, but it matters not. There is only once source for the size (or even existence) of the Israelite exodus - Exodus - and that is quite clear about the size. It is not 100,000. There are no outside sources. (That's rather the point here.)

But, there's a more key other factor i can offer information about other than exodus size.

Having actually worked on a small farm, I can relate that labor is very easy to substitute in, with no previous experience required.

I found this out, to my own distress at being assigned more and more work because other family members that had been doing those parts stopped as I became old enough to take over their tasks.

It's just not needed to be already skilled to do basic farm work so long as even one person is around even briefly to instruct you in what to do.

In just 2-5 minutes, they can instruct you and give you many hours of work....

I'm not kidding.
It's just fact.

This isn't really skilled labor, especially not in the most basic farming like would be done in the ancient past.

Been there, done that. Who hasn't.

So...an Egyptian overseer (who had already in the past been overseeing slaves...) could command I bet even 15-20 separate groups of laborers in a day no doubt, if he had a chariot to go around in.

Just like he'd been doing already for years.

Overseers, slaves? What evidence the Israelites were enslaved (oh yeah, Exodus)?

Plus, chariots were the battle tanks of the day, why would they be used to oversee slaves?

So, it would be as I explained, in our scenario. It's not a wild speculation, but a very reasonable expectation based on experience.

Artisans and previously not working individuals would be needed to work in the fields. And they would have to do so. And they'd be able to do so. (that's where the age of the populace comes in -- those 15-30 year olds would be perfectly able to do that work...)

What would be gone is the previous economy. Life for Egyptians would become much more laborious.....and much less luxurious.

So long as the Nile inundations continued normally, they'd be fine.

Just fine.

Failed inundations = famine we can guess, but...disasters happen now and then.

Assuming no famine, there would still be a significant reduction in economic activity from the loss of such a large portion of the population.

 

[Halbhh]

The link must be off page, but it matters not. There is only once source for the size (or even existence) of the Israelite exodus - Exodus - and that is quite clear about the size. It is not 100,000. There are no outside sources. (That's rather the point here.)

Never a good idea to just ignore and assert. Read and learn is always a better step. While I said "might", it's not a far fetched 'might', but a very reasonable one.

Here's from that post:

How many Israelites left Egypt in the exodus? | GotQuestions.org

How many Israelites left Egypt in the exodus? If there were around 600,000 military-aged men in the exodus, how many total people were there?

www.gotquestions.org

The article has some good points like this: "When Israel conducted their census of the Levites and the firstborn from the rest of the tribes (Numbers 3:39, 46), the number of firstborn males is recorded as just over twenty thousand. Using the traditional interpretation of 600,000 adult males implies that firstborns made up only 1 out of every 30 men. If that were the case, the average Israelite family would have about 60 children, boys and girls combined. This reckoning seems unreasonable." ---

Indeed so! Families during such a putative nomadic life would not be having 60 kids, but I'd guess more like 2-6.

 

[Halbhh]

What evidence the Israelites were enslaved (oh yeah, Exodus)?

No. I'll paste that also....

This (secular) article was interesting on the archeological evidence about Semites in Egypt though.

Were Hebrews ever slaves in ancient Egypt? Yes​

***

www.haaretz.com

(of course, I don't think of such findings as exhaustive (more might be found in the future), but they are interesting anyway)

 

[Halbhh]

Plus, chariots were the battle tanks of the day, why would they be used to oversee slaves?

Oh good grief. You are just being lazy at this point....

"What were the different types of ancient chariots?


The Egyptians knew two types of chariots, the war- chariot which had six-spoked wheels while the carriage chariots had only four spokes. ..."

etc. It was just the top search result.

https://www.mas.bg.ac.rs/_media/istrazivanje/fme/vol44/3/2_tghondros_et_al.pdf

I didn't even have to work to find it.

I think at it's best for you to just read more before you post.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Never a good idea to just ignore and assert. Read and learn is always a better step. While I said "might", it's not a far fetched 'might', but a very reasonable one.

Here's from that post:

How many Israelites left Egypt in the exodus? | GotQuestions.org

How many Israelites left Egypt in the exodus? If there were around 600,000 military-aged men in the exodus, how many total people were there?

www.gotquestions.org

The article has some good points like this: "When Israel conducted their census of the Levites and the firstborn from the rest of the tribes (Numbers 3:39, 46), the number of firstborn males is recorded as just over twenty thousand. Using the traditional interpretation of 600,000 adult males implies that firstborns made up only 1 out of every 30 men. If that were the case, the average Israelite family would have about 60 children, boys and girls combined. This reckoning seems unreasonable." ---

Indeed so! Families during such a putative nomadic life would not be having 60 kids, but I'd guess more like 2-6.

I've already heard the "Israelites can't count" argument, etc. (Though the "alternate base" was, let's say "creative".) (And of course the actual solution is anachronistic exaggeration, or outright invention, but that's not the point.)

The point was that the numbers given are clearly not realistic. I don't need a page full of cheap excuses to refute that claim.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Oh good grief. You are just being lazy at this point....

"What were the different types of ancient chariots?


The Egyptians knew two types of chariots, the war- chariot which had six-spoked wheels while the carriage chariots had only four spokes. ..."

etc. It was just the top search result.

https://www.mas.bg.ac.rs/_media/istrazivanje/fme/vol44/3/2_tghondros_et_al.pdf

I didn't even have to work to find it.

I think at it's best for you to just read more before you post.

I didn't know this was "academic challenge" night. After all your "agricultural recovery" argument was based largely on your personal experience as a field hand. (Plus I didn't use "Google".)

That half or so of the population was foreign slaves doesn't sound real plausible without documentation. Sure the population of ancient South Carolina (accursed be her name) was majority enslaved, but the South Carolinians had muskets to keep the slaves from revolting.

As for some of the other claims tossed out: Semite /= Israelite.

The sources I did see seemed to indicate that most farming was done by regular farmers. Not sure how much enslavement was used.

And M74 with six arms, silly chat bot.

 

[Halbhh]

I didn't know this was "academic challenge" night.

Then you should not make scattershot unthinking posts without reading anything being referred to in the post you are responding to.

 

[Halbhh]

As for some of the other claims tossed out: Semite /= Israelite.

You could have said "I don't want to read that article" and even politely asked for excerpts....

Sure, you can waste your time making strawman posts like that....but...you only have finite, limited time. Why not value your own time more?

 

[public hermit]

In a rather improbable coincidence, an astronomer friend also tried out chatGPT recently...

ME
Write a short description of the galaxy Messier 74 that is several paragraphs long and intended for the general public.

ChatGPT
Messier 74 is a stunning spiral galaxy located in the constellation Pisces, approximately 32 million light-years away from Earth. It is also known as NGC 628 and is one of the most beautiful galaxies in the night sky. The galaxy is part of a group of galaxies known as the M74 Group, which also includes several other galaxies.
The galaxy was first discovered by the French astronomer Pierre Méchain in 1780, and later cataloged by Charles Messier in 1781. Messier 74 has a diameter of about 95,000 light-years, making it slightly smaller than our own Milky Way galaxy. It contains billions of stars, and its beautiful spiral arms are dotted with star-forming regions, where new stars are born.
What makes Messier 74 particularly interesting is its unusual shape. Unlike most spiral galaxies, which have two or four spiral arms, Messier 74 has a whopping six spiral arms! This makes it a favorite target for amateur astronomers and astrophotographers, who can capture its intricate structure with long-exposure images.
Observations of Messier 74 have revealed a number of interesting features. For example, the galaxy has a bright nucleus, which is thought to contain a supermassive black hole. It also has a number of satellite galaxies, which orbit around it and are gravitationally bound to it.
Overall, Messier 74 is a fascinating object to study for astronomers, and a beautiful sight to behold for amateur stargazers. Its intricate structure and unusual shape make it a unique addition to the tapestry of galaxies in our universe.

ME
[Thinking: Huh? Six spiral arms? I’ve never heard that.]
Where did you get the information about the six spiral arms?

ChatGPT
The information about Messier 74 having six spiral arms comes from various observations and studies carried out by astronomers using different telescopes and instruments. One such study was conducted by a team of astronomers using the Subaru Telescope in Hawaii, which produced a high-resolution image of the galaxy's spiral structure. The study, published in The Astrophysical Journal, revealed that Messier 74 has six spiral arms, which is quite unusual compared to most other spiral galaxies that have two or four arms.
Other studies, including those carried out using the Hubble Space Telescope, have also confirmed the presence of six spiral arms in Messier 74. By analyzing the distribution of gas and stars within the galaxy, astronomers have been able to map out its spiral arms and study their structure and dynamics.
Overall, the information about Messier 74 having six spiral arms is based on multiple observations and studies conducted by astronomers using different telescopes and instruments, and is widely accepted in the astronomical community.

ME
[Googling “M74 six spiral arms subaru” and finding absolutely nothing beyond statements that it has TWO spiral arms.]
I can not find the source you cited on the six spiral arms.

ChatGPT
I apologize for the confusion. The information regarding the six spiral arms of Messier 74 is based on earlier studies, which were later found to be incorrect. Recent observations using the Spitzer Space Telescope and the Subaru Telescope have shown that Messier 74 actually has a normal two-armed spiral structure, similar to most other spiral galaxies.
It is important to note that scientific knowledge is constantly evolving as new observations and discoveries are made, and sometimes earlier findings may be revised or overturned by new data. As an AI language model, I rely on the information that is available in my knowledge database, which is updated on a regular basis. However, I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information to the best of my abilities based on the available sources.

That's hilarious. Well, anybody can make a mistake, I guess we don't need humans anymore.

 

[Halbhh]

That's hilarious. Well, anybody can make a mistake, I guess we don't need humans anymore.

heh heh

I'm thinking only about 10% of people might be satisfied with chat GPT's slickness tho, lol
Just to be sure I'm not mistaken for chat GPT, I could stop trying to edit out my many typos!~

 

[public hermit]

heh heh

I'm thinking only about 10% of people might be satisfied with chat GPT's slickness tho, lol
Just to be sure I'm not mistaken for chat GPT, I could stop trying to edit out my many typos!~

I assume it will only get better. However, I also assume this kind of technology will never be free from mistakes. If we think of these kinds of mistakes in terms of quantity, then it will out pace us, most certainly. But in terms of the quality of mistake, it depends in how much we trust it. It might be worse in terms of quality, missing nuances humans don't even think about but exhibit, e.g., caring.

 

[Halbhh]

I assume it will only get better. However, I also assume this kind of technology will never be free from mistakes. If we think of these kinds of mistakes in terms of quantity, then it will out pace us, most certainly. But in terms of the quality of mistake, it depends in how much we trust it. It might be worse in terms of quality, missing nuances humans don't even think about but exhibit, e.g., caring.

hmmm....yes....

Tangential thought came to mind. I've been watching a few more of the 1420 youtube street interviews of Russians, and it's quite interesting how strange and very far from reality a lot of the Russian propaganda is that some of the interviewees repeat from what they've heard on state TV. It seems like a serious chunk of the population is pretty far down the rabbit hole, while in contrast many other Russians are not, and the contrast is really something. And it seems like a large portion of the Republican party today in the U.S. is also down its own rabbit hole. It seems to happen by repeating of memes that are just invented fictions, but they get repeated a lot and become a kind of world. Now, I wonder about when some sunlight occasionally shines down into a rabbit hole....what is that like? What will happen. Will there be a moment when some significant portion suddenly come to their senses? It's sorta the opposite of just hearing memes repeated, that.

 

[public hermit]

hmmm....yes....

Tangential thought came to mind. I've been watching a few more of the 1420 youtube street interviews of Russians, and it's quite interesting how strange and very far from reality a lot of the Russian propaganda is that some of the interviewees repeat from what they've heard on state TV. It seems like a serious chunk of the population is pretty far down the rabbit hole, while in contrast many other Russians are not, and the contrast is really something. And it seems like a large portion of the Republican party today in the U.S. is also down its own rabbit hole. It seems to happen by repeating of memes that are just invented fictions, but they get repeated a lot and become a kind of world. Now, I wonder about when some sunlight occasionally shines down into a rabbit hole....what is that like? What will happen. Will there be a moment when some significant portion suddenly come to their senses? It's sorta the opposite of just hearing memes repeated, that.

I'm not sure what you mean. I'm certainly not trying to produce more meme material for Russians or Republicans.

I'm just saying philosophers are going to need work, and they can ensure this technology is just as confused as we are. Otherwise, it won't be human and will mess things up.

Fine, I'll write a book with a computer but it won't be my book. Pay me, anyway. Lol

 

[Halbhh]

I'm not sure what you mean. I'm certainly not trying to produce more meme material for Russians or Republicans.

I'm just saying philosophers are going to need work, and they can ensure this technology is just as confused as we are. Otherwise, it won't be human and will mess things up.

Fine, I'll write a book with a computer but it won't be my book. Pay me, anyway. Lol

All that about the 1420 interviews and all, it just came to mind maybe because of how chat GPT can just conglomerate stuff together regardless of what is real and what is definitely false, all together, and that's a bit like the Russian propaganda, but...to be honest, the Russian propaganda is very far out there, just wild stuff, lol...

Switching topics, I think it would be interesting to make chat GPT more philosophical, but also that's a bit...scary to imagine what it might come up with, lol

 

[Hans Blaster]

You could have said "I don't want to read that article" and even politely asked for excerpts....

Sure, you can waste your time making strawman posts like that....but...you only have finite, limited time. Why not value your own time more?

What article? That bible answers thing?