June 2025 - the US had a budget surplus.

[Always in His Presence]

June 2025 marked a surprising fiscal milestone for the U.S. government — a budget surplus of over $27 billion, the first for the month of June since 2017.

Here’s what made it happen:

• Tariff Revenue Surge: Customs duties skyrocketed to $27 billion, a 301% increase from June 2024, largely due to new across-the-board 10% import tariffs and reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier in the year.
• Economic Factors: A 13% increase in overall receipts and a 7% drop in spending compared to the previous year also helped bridge the gap.

From Grok

 

[GoldenBoy89]

Hooray for taxes! Lol

 

[iluvatar5150]

June 2025 marked a surprising fiscal milestone for the U.S. government — a budget surplus of over $27 billion, the first for the month of June since 2017.

To clarify in case anybody misinterprets this: This is not the first month with a surplus since June 2017. This is the first June with a surplus since June 2017. MSNBC worded it a little more clearly:

The government last posted a June surplus in 2017, during President Donald Trump’s first term.

As you can see from the Fed chart, monthly surpluses happen all the time:

Federal Surplus or Deficit [-]

Graph and download economic data for Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] (MTSDS133FMS) from Oct 1980 to Jun 2025 about budget, federal, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

April 2025 had a surplus. Prior to that, Sep 2024 had one. Looking over the chart, most Aprils seem to enjoy surpluses, with the two most common months after that being September and January. If I had to guess, it's because that's when quarterly taxes are due for businesses.

There are enough fluctuations in the patterns of government outlays and receipts that monthly surpluses are essentially meaningless. What matters are trends over longer periods of time.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

June 2025 marked a surprising fiscal milestone for the U.S. government — a budget surplus of over $27 billion, the first for the month of June since 2017.

Here’s what made it happen:

• Tariff Revenue Surge: Customs duties skyrocketed to $27 billion, a 301% increase from June 2024, largely due to new across-the-board 10% import tariffs and reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier in the year.
• Economic Factors: A 13% increase in overall receipts and a 7% drop in spending compared to the previous year also helped bridge the gap.

From Grok

Thanks for meaningless smokescreen distraction.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

Thanks for meaningless smokescreen distraction.

'Distraction' = Any topic that doesn't make Trump look bad.

 

[iluvatar5150]

'Distraction' = Any topic that doesn't make Trump look bad.

In this case, the distraction is supposed to make Trump look good.

Unfortunately for those who would use it to that end, the rest of us know what we're reading and how silly this is to gloat about.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

In this case, the distraction is supposed to make Trump look good.

Unfortunately for those who would use it to that end, the rest of us know what we're reading and how silly this is to gloat about.

Well, many people on the left were panicking about the tariffs thinking that the economy was going to collapse and the sky was going to fall. This obviously doesn't seem to be the case.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Well, many people on the left were panicking about the tariffs thinking that the economy was going to collapse and the sky was going to fall. This obviously doesn't seem to be the case.

That's because they've largely been delayed and/or smaller than originally threatened.

Trump 2.0 tariff tracker

According to President Trump, “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump promised to use tariffs

www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/29/nx-s1-5477470/prices-trump-tariffs

 

[Oompa Loompa]

That's because they've largely been delayed and/or smaller than originally threatened.

Trump 2.0 tariff tracker

According to President Trump, “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump promised to use tariffs

www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/29/nx-s1-5477470/prices-trump-tariffs

Or because they are working. But people will believe just about anything rather that accepting that Trump was right about something.

 

[PatrickTate]

June 2025 marked a surprising fiscal milestone for the U.S. government — a budget surplus of over $27 billion, the first for the month of June since 2017.

Here’s what made it happen:

• Tariff Revenue Surge: Customs duties skyrocketed to $27 billion, a 301% increase from June 2024, largely due to new across-the-board 10% import tariffs and reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier in the year.
• Economic Factors: A 13% increase in overall receipts and a 7% drop in spending compared to the previous year also helped bridge the gap.

From Grok

Wow!!!!!

These are absolutely fascinating statistics!

Thank you! Just imagine what will happen if this "Conspiracy Theory" of mine turns out to be a valid idea?

Is the National Debt of the United States significantly a Practical Joke being played on Americans?

If this theory is true then the technical term for this may be "Neo-Malthusian Economic Philosophy." I now need to give you a quotation from Dr. Kevin Zadai Th. D. who reports having a brush with death back in 1992. Jesus explained some astonishing mysteries to Dr. Zadai with a clarity and a...

www.christianforums.com

 

[hedrick]

Yup. Take a look at the graph in this article: Trump's Hollow Surplus Claim - FactCheck.org. You probably want to use a period longer than a month.

 

[iluvatar5150]

Or because they are working. But people will believe just about anything rather that accepting that Trump was right about something.

Do you even bother to try to understand what you're talking about before you comment?

I gave you a link to the tariff tracker. Do you dispute its accuracy? If not, you can see quite clearly that, in nearly all cases, the currently-imposed tariffs are far smaller than the big huge proposed ones that had everybody losing their minds. A lot of the country-specific ones on that list have been delayed until Aug 1. Many others were only ever threatened and never imposed.

I also gave you a link to an article describing how a bunch of importers took steps to circumvent the tariffs.

All of this stuff matters, but if you'd prefer to live in a fantasy world where Trump is always right and always shoots under par, well... I suppose that's your business.

 

[PatrickTate]

Or because they are working. But people will believe just about anything rather that accepting that Trump was right about something.

Exactly!

Because the Israeli Rabbi's have respect for President Trump and say that he has a "Cyrus Mantle" he is hated by Christians. Well actually it is because of BigMedia and their fear that they cannot control him and he might just begin to deal with corruption at high levels.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

If not, you can see quite clearly that, in nearly all cases, the currently-imposed tariffs are far smaller than the big huge proposed ones that had everybody losing their minds.

After the huge proposed ones brought people to the negotiation table.

 

[hedrick]

I'm currently an IT guy (with a PhD in Artificial Intelligence), but in grad school I published a couple of papers in major econ journals.

One of the frustrating parts about economics is that there are long delays. We'll know most of the impacts of Trump's policy by 2028. Probably a bit by 2026.

From a political point of view this is a problem, because presidents basically experience the consequences of their predecessor, not their own policies, for quite a while.

Covid, of course, was an exception, because it caused consequences more quickly. Perhaps tariffs will as well, but it's not clear.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

I'm currently an IT guy (with a PhD in Artificial Intelligence), but in grad school I published a couple of papers in major econ journals.

One of the frustrating parts about economics is that there are long delays. We'll know most of the impacts of Trump's policy by 2028. Probably a bit by 2026.

From a political point of view this is a problem, because presidents basically experience the consequences of their predecessor, not their own policies, for quite a while.

Covid, of course, was an exception, because it caused consequences more quickly. Perhaps tariffs will as well, but it's not clear.

PHD in A.I.? Very impressive.

 

[iluvatar5150]

After the huge proposed ones brought people to the negotiation table.

Even if we accept that premise, the original question was about predictions of the sky falling. We haven’t gotten (yet, anyways) most of the tariffs that were causing those concerns.

 

[Say it aint so]

Down goes Frazier, down goes Frazier!

 

[Say it aint so]

Or because they are working. But people will believe just about anything rather that accepting that Trump was right about something.

Some were working:

Layoffs from Trump Tariffs Ripple Across Auto Parts Industry​

U.S. Tourism Is Taking A Hit From Trump’s Policies​

How Tariffs Are Driving Facility Closures and Layoffs Across U.S. Logistics in 2025​

I speaking of right, those predictions are being proven right and once those businesses who ran and stocked up on product to beat Trump tariffs run out of those products, this will exacerbate.

 

[Say it aint so]

U.S. Economy Slowed in First Half of 2025 as Tariffs Scrambled Data​

​

Economic growth softened in the first half of the year, as tariffs and uncertainty upended business plans and scrambled consumers’ spending decisions.​

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. That topped forecasters’ expectations and appeared to represent a strong rebound from the first three months of the year, when output contracted at a 0.5 percent rate.​

But both those figures were skewed — in opposite directions — by big swings in trade and inventories caused by President Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policies. Taken as a whole, the data from the first six months of the year tell a more consistent story of anemic, though positive, economic growth.​