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10 Tariff Questions Never Asked

Gene2memE

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This assumes a united front.

It does not, in the slightest. It also doesn't matter.

The US has decided to fight everyone at the same time. It's immaterial whether they're "united" or not. The US is going to be fighting them whether it wants to or not.

Plus, the US has to deal with shifting global consumer sentiment. My firm, for instance, is moving the North American iteration of our trade show from New York to Toronto for 2026. Because of the US tariffs and concerns about US border crossings.

This event typically attracts ~150 local and international exhibitors and 800 to 1000 attendees across 2 days. About half of those are international visitors, so roughly 450 to 500 international arrivals.

Based on 2023 and 2024 data, the typical attendee to our trade conferences spends about six nights in the US and spends about $3600 across flights, accommodation, food and incidentals. That's roughly $1.5 to $1.7 million that isn't going to be spent in the US next year.

Trump has been astutely separating the various national actors from each other.

He's not - if anything he's managed to unite countries against him. Even historic geopolitical foes.

China, Japan and South Korea are co-ordinating their policy responses.
Canada and Mexico are working on joint responses under the USMCA agreement.
The UK has indicated in recent days it will move closer to the EU on trade, even if it doesn't retaliate against US tariffs.
Australia is sending trade missions to China, India, Indonesia, ASEAN and the EU - but not to the US.

He will have to make special exceptions in the case of China and the EU, like it or not, as these have an equal economic weight to the USA. His best strategy would have been to take on China and Russia with the EU as an ally. It is not too late for him to see sense.

His best strategy would have been to not impose blanket tariffs in the first place.

The US now has the distinction of being one of the few countries in the world that willingly to put economic sanctions on itself.
 
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mindlight

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It does not, in the slightest. It also doesn't matter.

The US has decided to fight everyone at the same time. It's immaterial whether they're "united" or not. The US is going to be fighting them whether it wants to or not.

Plus, the US has to deal with shifting global consumer sentiment.

My firm, for instance, is shifting our annual North American trade show from New York to Toronto for 2026. It usually attracts ~150 exhibitors and 600 to 800 attendees. About half of those are international visitors. An international attendee to one of our trade shows typically spen
The negotiations include other factors than economics e.g. military support. On some occasions this outweighs the trade consideration. The US has the weight to bully national actors but not the EU or China or indeed countries that unite with them.

I agree that on a grass roots level Trump has severely overplayed his hand. He thought the chaos he created would create leverage but it has turned hearts and minds against him. Corporate decision makers are relocating venues, changing source suppliers and avoiding the US where they can often for no better reason than sheer anger. He believes the big strong men make all the decisions, but it is the little people that make the world go round. Frodo is already on the slopes of Mount Doom.
 
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loveofourlord

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The negotiations include other factors than economics e.g. military support. On some occasions this outweighs the trade consideration. The US has the weight to bully national actors but not the EU or China or indeed countries that unite with them.

I agree that on a grass roots level Trump has severely overplayed his hand. He thought the chaos he created would create leverage but it has turned hearts and minds against him. Corporate decision makers are relocating venues, changing source suppliers and avoiding the US where they can often for no better reason than sheer anger. He believes the big strong men make all the decisions, but it is the little people that make the world go round. Frodo is already on the slopes of Mount Doom.
not just sheer anger, who wants to invest in a country that changes it's trade policy half a dozen or more times in a week.

Plus, it makes the us an unreliable trading partner, yes some of it like canada and otehrs is anger at being threatened and mocked repeatedly, but this hopefully hs taught canada that we shouldn't put so much trade with the US, and I've been thinking that since the housing crisis it leaves us too vulnerable to random or self inflicted trouble with the US.
 
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Gene2memE

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The negotiations include other factors than economics e.g. military support. On some occasions this outweighs the trade consideration.

Which would be fine, if the US were acting on a rational basis. But, it's not.

The Trump administration is ignoring these "other factors" and just applying blanket tariffs on its geopolitical allies (but not its foes). If you want to weave strategic considerations into economic negotiations, or vica versa, this is not the way to go about it.

You're less likely to get favourable concessions out of countries that feel threatened.

The US has the weight to bully national actors but not the EU or China or indeed countries that unite with them.

Sure, on an individual basis. But, this is one horse-sized duck fighting two hundred duck-sized horses.

I agree that on a grass roots level Trump has severely overplayed his hand. He thought the chaos he created would create leverage but it has turned hearts and minds against him. Corporate decision makers are relocating venues, changing source suppliers and avoiding the US where they can often for no better reason than sheer anger. He believes the big strong men make all the decisions, but it is the little people that make the world go round. Frodo is already on the slopes of Mount Doom.

He'll get some of what he wants. It's already happening. But, he's not going to get anything near to a result that could be considered a win for the US - in strategic, economic or industrial terms. What he's actually doing is weakening the US economy and making the country poorer overall. In particular, he's making things worse for those who are least well positioned to afford it.
As usual, the cruelty is the point.
 
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loveofourlord

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nightmare scenarios for the US the world could do.

Sell off the treasury bonds and instead use another countries currency, especially the ones that are the debt the US owes other countries. The US is refusing to work with other countries, so why shouldn't the refuse to work with the states.
 
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Trogdor the Burninator

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The negotiations include other factors than economics e.g. military support. On some occasions this outweighs the trade consideration. The US has the weight to bully national actors but not the EU or China or indeed countries that unite with them.

Except that Trump himself has come out and essentially said "Don't expect us to support you militarily either". And - surprise, surprise - other nations are believing him. So not only has he stopped trade, he's killing US military exports and alliances too.
I agree that on a grass roots level Trump has severely overplayed his hand. He thought the chaos he created would create leverage but it has turned hearts and minds against him. Corporate decision makers are relocating venues, changing source suppliers and avoiding the US where they can often for no better reason than sheer anger.
No, they're relocating venues because, after numerous reports of people being randomly detained by US immigration, they don't trust the US not to do it to their employees either. Again - they're acting on what Trump says and does.

I already know of a few companies who have cancelled plans to attend industry conferences in the US for this very reason, and online chatter amongst academics is that a significant number of them will refuse to attend seminars in the US.
 
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mindlight

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Which would be fine, if the US were acting on a rational basis. But, it's not.

The Trump administration is ignoring these "other factors" and just applying blanket tariffs on its geopolitical allies (but not its foes). If you want to weave strategic considerations into economic negotiations, or vica versa, this is not the way to go about it.

You're less likely to get favourable concessions out of countries that feel threatened.

I think the strategy of the first stage of Trump's Art of the Deal was to create chaos. If people think you are crazy, even with your allies, they know you are serious with them also. At least, I hope that is what that was. There is no rational basis to attack Britain in this way as it has spent considerable blood and treasure as the USA's ally and runs a deficit (not a surplus with them). But crazy and unpredictable does not work with countries that are struggling enough as it is and do not need the extra hassle of the USA playing bully in the playground to take the other kids' pocket money and packed lunches. People are already planning futures without the USA in them. America has gone from Shining City on a Hill to the Dark Tower of Mordor in just a few months.

Sure, on an individual basis. But, this is one horse-sized duck fighting two hundred duck-sized horses.

No, the EU AND China are both the same size economically, and given Trump and Putin's provocation, they may very soon be the same size militarily also. This is a bully who's picking fights with mild-mannered guys of a similar size who generally don't like to throw their weight around but can learn to do so pretty quickly if pushed. And then there is the army of 200 duck sized horses also all breathing fire right now in America's direction.

He'll get some of what he wants. It's already happening. But, he's not going to get anything near to a result that could be considered a win for the US - in strategic, economic or industrial terms. What he's actually doing is weakening the US economy and making the country poorer overall. In particular, he's making things worse for those who are least well positioned to afford it.
As usual, the cruelty is the point.

I think this depends on what he wants. The EU will spend more on defence stuff supplied by its own companies and will develop the capability to defend Ukraine itself in time. In the meantime, its defence industry will boom, and infrastructure investments will strengthen the long-term efficiency of its economy. In return, America is offering military aid we can no longer trust with Trump in charge and overpriced oil from American frackers who are destroying its ecology. He wants us to buy overpriced drugs from Big Pharma, oversized SUVs that no one wants and smile while he rapes Ukraine of all its rare earths. Sometimes people buy inferior products just because they hate the shopkeeper and you know what, most of the time that is not really a problem.
 
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mindlight

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Except that Trump himself has come out and essentially said "Don't expect us to support you militarily either". And - surprise, surprise - other nations are believing him. So not only has he stopped trade, he's killing US military exports and alliances too.

No, they're relocating venues because, after numerous reports of people being randomly detained by US immigration, they don't trust the US not to do it to their employees either. Again - they're acting on what Trump says and does.

I already know of a few companies who have cancelled plans to attend industry conferences in the US for this very reason, and online chatter amongst academics is that a significant number of them will refuse to attend seminars in the US.

Yep, an F-35 without American command and control might not be that effective. European allies are checking American weaponry for kill switches and devising strategies to undo these in a war.

Tourists are avoiding the USA, and numbers are down across the board due to border controls.

Trump regards this as all about short-term pains on the way to realising his vision, but he is wrong. People are forming up against him on a global level - I just hope it stays personal against Trump, as I believe we do need a strong USA in the long term.

This is entirely regrettable as he could have brought in his reforms step by step and used his allies to obtain leverage over China, vaccinate the world against the Woke Virus and put Russia in its place. He may lose the trade war with China because he decided on the Lone Ranger approach instead.
 
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Aryeh Jay

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Tourists are avoiding the USA, and numbers are down across the board due to border controls.

It's not just that, apparently we can't even keep out tour helicopters in the air.
 
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Bradskii

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Tourists are avoiding the USA, and numbers are down across the board due to border controls.
My wife and I had plans to visit yet again later this year. Cancelled.
Trump regards this as all about short-term pains on the way to realising his vision, but he is wrong. People are forming up against him on a global level - I just hope it stays personal against Trump...
But it's not. A third of the US voted for this guy. And they're apparently happy with what he is doing. It's not just Trump any more.

I've always been able to avoid facing the reality of the country whenever I've been there. I've purposely, intentionally, avoided addressing your problems. My wife and I have our 3G rule when we're there: Don't discuss God, guns or the government.

I can't avoid it any more. This is what you wanted.
 
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durangodawood

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My wife and I had plans to visit yet again later this year. Cancelled.
Given the absurd unwillingness to correct for flat out errors in processing foreigners, its probably smart to stay away. Wires get crossed behind the customs desk.... and who knows where you could wind up.
 
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rambot

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1. President Donald Trump’s so-called trade war.

Many call the American effort to obtain either tariff parity or a reduction in the roughly $1 trillion trade deficit and 50 years of consecutive trade deficits a “trade war.” But then what do they call the policies of the past half-century by Europe, Asia, China, and others to ensure asymmetrical tariffs, pseudo-health and security trade restrictions, and large surpluses?
You can "blame" these things as much as you want but it's not as simple as you lay out.
And my issue that is the US is treating EVERYONE the same instead of looking at the "problem groups" and solving those problems. Yes, China has been terrible with the pseudo health and safety stuff. But newsflash cry man....they do that with every country. YOu are not special there.


A trade peace? Trade fairness?

2. Do nations prefer surpluses or deficits?


Why do most nations prefer trade surpluses and protective tariffs?

Are Europe, Asia, China, and others stupid? Are they suicidal in continuing their trade surpluses and protective or asymmetrical tariffs?

Is the United States uniquely brilliant in maintaining a half-century of cumulative trade deficits? Do Americans alone discover the advantages of a $1 trillion annual trade deficit and small or nonexistent tariffs?
No. You are guys are richer than everyone else and ther are more of you.

Seriously? IS this hard to piece together?


Why don’t America’s trading partners prefer deficits like ours—given we supposedly believe they are either advantageous or perhaps irrelevant?

3. Would our trade partners prefer to trade places with us?

Would our trade partners prefer to have America’s supposed benefits of a $1 trillion trade deficit? Would the United States then “suffer” like they do by running up $200 billion annual surpluses?
These questions are just silly. Come on Vambram. Do you honestly not think your guys' financial circumstance realyl dont' make a difference? Really?



4. What if wages went up at the rate of the stock market?

What would now be the reaction of the stock market if over the last decade wages had increased at the rate of stocks—and the stocks at the rate of wages?
Well, that did, and will NOT happen. You seem to think a right wing government has an interest in working wage's increase.


5. Is Wall Street’s panic based on what might happen—or what is happening?
What is happenning.

Are we already trying to forget that it has been Trump's policies led to the turmoil we saw?


Is Wall Street’s meltdown a fear of what might happen in the future? Or is it reacting to March’s latest jobs report that there were 93,000 more jobs created than predicted? Was the Wall Street panic predicated on reports of much lower oil prices? Did the furor arise over the March inflation report that the annualized inflation rate dipped to 2.6% per year?
Lipstick on a pigging it I guess.

6. Is the frenzy caused by the Trump economic agenda?
What agenda? He's made it clear he's making it up as he goes along and goes with his gut.


7. What about North American neighbors?

If the U.S. was running a $63 billion-plus trade surplus with Canada, refusing to meet its NATO requirements to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense, and instead spent only 1.37%, would Canada become concerned?

Let me be BRUTALLY clear when I say this:
I could literally give to pieces of feces about a "trade deficit" with another country.


If Mexico were running a $171 billion trade deficit with the U.S., if Americans in Mexico were sending over $60 billion per year out of Mexico to the U.S., and if American drug dealers were making $20 billion by selling fentanyl and opioids to Mexico, would Mexico be angry?

I wonder if you accept that Americans SPEND more on average than most people and most developed countries. Between that and your countryman's willingness to go into DEEP DEEP debt to spend spend spend, I'm curious:

How can you expect other countries to keep up?

NOBODY consumes like the US. How could you EVER have a trade surpluss with a country? You guys are MASSIVE consumers!

And maybe, just maybe, you guys make a lot of terribly low quality products that people aren't interested in. Europe for example, really doesn't buy many American cars. That's not becaue of tariffs. I think American companies fundamentally don't understand the market or are willing to adapt to make inroads there. Facts is that a lot of European roads simply CANNOT handle the size of many American vehicles.

Also, and this should be enough to smarten you guys up. Americans by peanuts for gas. Europeans will be at LEAST double if not trible what Americans pay. Why would they reach for gas guzzling American cars?
 
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Aryeh Jay

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Given the absurd unwillingness to correct for flat out errors in processing foreigners, its probably smart to stay away. Wires get crossed behind the customs desk.... and who knows where you could wind up.

I don't know, a free trip to El Salvador after seeing New York? They say El Salvador is pretty safe nowadays.
 
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mindlight

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I don't know, a free trip to El Salvador after seeing New York? They say El Salvador is pretty safe nowadays.

I heard there were a lot of American criminals living there ;-)
 
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DaisyDay

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NOBODY consumes like the US. How could you EVER have a trade surpluss with a country? You guys are MASSIVE consumers!
And we gots the belt sizes to prove it j- and belt extenders, too!
 
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Vambram

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You can "blame" these things as much as you want but it's not as simple as you lay out.
And my issue that is the US is treating EVERYONE the same instead of looking at the "problem groups" and solving those problems. Yes, China has been terrible with the pseudo health and safety stuff. But newsflash cry man....they do that with every country. YOu are not special there.



No. You are guys are richer than everyone else and ther are more of you.

Seriously? IS this hard to piece together?



These questions are just silly. Come on Vambram. Do you honestly not think your guys' financial circumstance realyl dont' make a difference? Really?




Well, that did, and will NOT happen. You seem to think a right wing government has an interest in working wage's increase.



What is happenning.

Are we already trying to forget that it has been Trump's policies led to the turmoil we saw?



Lipstick on a pigging it I guess.


What agenda? He's made it clear he's making it up as he goes along and goes with his gut.




Let me be BRUTALLY clear when I say this:
I could literally give to pieces of feces about a "trade deficit" with another country.



I wonder if you accept that Americans SPEND more on average than most people and most developed countries. Between that and your countryman's willingness to go into DEEP DEEP debt to spend spend spend, I'm curious:

How can you expect other countries to keep up?

NOBODY consumes like the US. How could you EVER have a trade surpluss with a country? You guys are MASSIVE consumers!

And maybe, just maybe, you guys make a lot of terribly low quality products that people aren't interested in. Europe for example, really doesn't buy many American cars. That's not becaue of tariffs. I think American companies fundamentally don't understand the market or are willing to adapt to make inroads there. Facts is that a lot of European roads simply CANNOT handle the size of many American vehicles.

Also, and this should be enough to smarten you guys up. Americans by peanuts for gas. Europeans will be at LEAST double if not trible what Americans pay. Why would they reach for gas guzzling American cars?
Perhaps I should explain something here. The article which I posted was an opinion piece from someone who I believe is a smart man. I posted his opinion piece because he asked a lot of good questions. However, I do wish that you wouldn't have made your response so personal towards me while at the same time appearing to bash and throw shade upon the people of the United States of America. It is preferable that we consider these questions, debate what we think about it, while at the same time doing so in a respectful manner towards one another on these forums.

Also, I do not completely agree with each and everyone of the implied answers from Victor David Hanson about his questions.
 
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Gene2memE

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Who should I take more seriously?

The detailed assessments of international economics specialists at Deloitte, Harvard, Yale, World Trade Organisation and half a dozen others, backed by decades of macro-economic data and recent studies on tariff impacts?

Or 'DrGoblin', a Trump fluffer on an online message board who believes it's all part of "the plan" and doesn't appear to fully comprehend the difference between elipses and commas?
 
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loveofourlord

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yeah none of that is going to happen. Life will continue for a short while with prices fluxuating and then they will stop growing... things wont get cheaper they will stop getting more expensive. If you view Americas Presidential action in any other way or any other reason you are wrong. The only doom we need toworry about is Iran attacking Israel. Everything else means nothing.
prices will settle,and thigns go to a new norm for sure, the question is with that new norm be good or bad for the states. the US has the olympics in 3 years, but tourism currently is tanking.And with all the deportations and such will people risk bringing athelets?
 
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loveofourlord

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Thats just fear mongering... we will succeed in being a happy prosperous nation if the left doesnt manage to stop trump.
your not one now and the left hasn't managed to stop him. and it's literally not, but sure, all the top economic people, world leaders , billionaires who say trump is hurting the US they are ALL liberal leftest grumps trying to fear monger.

you do know it's already started, 70% drop in tourism from canada, 20 or so % from EU canada/eu/uk/china are looking to buy and sell stuff elsewhere. Remind mere where is the US going to get the steel/aluminum and such it nees from canada, or rare earth metals from china?
 
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