JPMorgan Calls It: The U.S. Economy Has Made a Soft Landing

[wing2000]

JPMorgan Chase JPM 4.44%increase; green up pointing triangle on Friday said the U.S. economy remains strong for both consumers and big companies, a sign that the Federal Reserve may have achieved the much-discussed soft landing with lower inflation and healthy growth.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-q3-earnings-report-2024-84b76ab9

"By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels."

The United States has nearly 7 million more jobs than it did before the pandemic, and the largest share of 25-to-54-year-olds working since 2001. Many experts didn’t think it even possible for the labor market to become this robust again. Some theories considered Americans too addicted to video games or drugs, or simply too lazy to work. The jobs rebound has proved the experts wrong.

The story on inflation is similar. Two years ago, economists were predicting a recession. Many said it was impossible to lower inflation without a downturn and widespread job losses. Yet we are living through this miracle. Report after report shows inflation cooling off. On Thursday, we learned that inflation has cooled to 2.4 percent. It’s so close to the 2 percent target again even Federal Reserve officials aren’t that worried about it anymore. And there is no recession in sight."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/10/10/economy-great-year-election/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

[bèlla]

Bidenflation round two is 'coming,' economist Stephen Moore warns.

 

[wing2000]

Bidenflation round two is 'coming,' economist Stephen Moore warns.

He cites 11% increase in commodity prices (over 2 week period) after the recent cut in the prime interest rate?

 

[bèlla]

He cites 11% increase in commodity prices (over 2 week period) after the recent cut in the prime interest rate?

And the things he mentioned are necessities. Wool is in season.

We should expect further hikes on prices because of the strike. The increase will be passed on to retailers and then consumers. There's whispers they may do the same on the west coast.

~bella

 

[wing2000]

And the things he mentioned are necessities. Wool is in season.

Maybe, but if only the commodity price increase is sustained over a longer period of time.

We should expect further hikes on prices because of the strike. The increase will be passed on to retailers and then consumers. There's whispers they may do the same on the west coast.

~bella

IMO, a strike of a few days will not affect prices that much, if it all. Many companies were stocking up anticipating the longshoremen's strike.

 

[bèlla]

Maybe, but if only the commodity price increase is sustained over a longer period of time.

We'll see what happens. I don't think we're out of the woods.

IMO, a strike of a few days will not affect prices that much, if it all. Many companies were stocking up anticipating the longshoremen's strike.

They have a 62% wage increase. The company isn't going to eat that. They'll raises prices to accommodate it. When that happens the retailers will follow suit like they did in the pandemic.

~bella

 

[Whyayeman]

Bidenflation round two is 'coming,' economist Stephen Moore warns.

I think Moore has an axe to grind here. He is partisan and he is taking a view on something that has not happened and might never. The JP Morgan report is based on rather a lot of factual information and is difficult to dismiss out of hand, not that Morgan has disputed the JP Morgan assessment.

 

[iluvatar5150]

I think Moore has an axe to grind here.

lol, ya think? The guy hasn’t had an economics job that wasn’t partisan.

Stephen Moore (writer) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Whyayeman]

lol, ya think? The guy hasn’t had an economics job that wasn’t partisan.

Stephen Moore (writer) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I was being kind.

I think the report cited here is somehow unwelcome news among Trump supporters, though it shouldn't be. And a doom-laden partisan is not actually a rebuttal of the assessment.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

The United States has nearly 7 million more jobs than it did before the pandemic, and the largest share of 25-to-54-year-olds working since 2001. Many experts didn’t think it even possible for the labor market to become this robust again. Some theories considered Americans too addicted to video games or drugs, or simply too lazy to work. The jobs rebound has proved the experts wrong.

The only part I may pushback on a little bit is "more jobs" claim.

Not because I think the 7 million number is inaccurate, but because I'd like to see what those jobs actually are.

There are ways that politicians can play some creative games with those kinds of stats to give a "rose colored glasses" view of that situation.

Employment in government rose by 709,000 in 2023

Employment in government increased by 709,000 in 2023, exceeding the employment growth in 2022 (+299,000) and 2021 (+392,000). Government employment recovered to its prepandemic level in September 2023, surpassing its February 2020 level by 209,000 in December 2023.

www.bls.gov

Just as one point of reference, a percentage of those gains are in the form of government jobs, and in many instances, government jobs aren't permanent.

OPM, which acts as the human resources office for millions of government employees, allows agencies to bring on workers for temporary jobs generally lasting at least one year but not exceeding four.

Another aspect that needs to be considered is that part time work is at an all time high.

So, for instance, if 5 full-time jobs (that had better pay and benefits) were replaced by 8 part time jobs, that's an increase in the job numbers, but not the pure "win" that's often implied.

"We added 3 new jobs!"

sounds better than

"5 people are now making less than they did previously; but hey, we got 3 people employed who weren't before"

 

[Whyayeman]

Another aspect that needs to be considered is that part time work is at an all time high.

Yes, that sort of thing has happened here in the UK too. Employment figures can be fluffed up this way.

(However, most employers prefer full-time to part-time staff.)

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Yes, that sort of thing has happened here in the UK too. Employment figures can be fluffed up this way.

(However, most employers prefer full-time to part-time staff.)

With the way labor laws are in the US, and having a "patchwork" system for which states would require it for part time employees...

There are certain employers who would much rather have two 20-hour per week employees than one 40-hour per week employee, as the latter would require them to offer health coverage, and the former would not.

That's likely an aspect that's different between the two countries as in the UK, heath coverage is done through the NHS and isn't tied to employment.

There are other aspects as well pertaining to different labor laws.

For instance, in some states, there are laws to the effect of
"An employee working a shift lasting 6 hours or more must be given a 30-minute meal break and two 5-minute breaks, less than 6 hours, only one 5 minute break is required"

 

[ozso]

For many voters the economy will be considered good when food, rent/mortgage utilities, insurance, fuel etc prices aren't through the roof.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

For many voters the economy will be considered good when food, rent/mortgage utilities, insurance, fuel etc prices aren't through the roof.

While there is that old slogan of "it's the economy, stupid!" (coined by Democratic strategist Jim - the ragin' Cajun - Carville back in the 90's)...

I think this upcoming election could be teetering on the possibility of being the exception to that rule. I think there's enough contention on enough social issues at the moment, that "how much am I getting paid?" and "how much does stuff cost?" may be somewhat secondary in this one.


The fact that you have major labor unions (who were always reliable endorsements for Democrats back in the day) declining to endorse a candidate...
The fact that you have the GOP candidate (Trump) having to somewhat "water down" the pro-life stance many in his party would prefer...
The fact that democrats are now endorsing conservative border policies they fought against 5 years ago (just so the conservatives can't use them as a selling point)


...all those things, to me, point to the social issues outweighing the economic issues in the eyes of a lot of voters this time around.

 

[ozso]

While there is that old slogan of "it's the economy, stupid!" (coined by Democratic strategist Jim - the ragin' Cajun - Carville back in the 90's)...

I think this upcoming election could be teetering on the possibility of being the exception to that rule. I think there's enough contention on enough social issues at the moment, that "how much am I getting paid?" and "how much does stuff cost?" may be somewhat secondary in this one.


The fact that you have major labor unions (who were always reliable endorsements for Democrats back in the day) declining to endorse a candidate...
The fact that you have the GOP candidate (Trump) having to somewhat "water down" the pro-life stance many in his party would prefer...
The fact that democrats are now endorsing conservative border policies they fought against 5 years ago (just so the conservatives can't use them as a selling point)


...all those things, to me, point to the social issues outweighing the economic issues in the eyes of a lot of voters this time around.

I don't see how something that demonstrably effects people on a personal level on a near daily basis is a back burner issue for them.

 

[comana]

For many voters the economy will be considered good when food, rent/mortgage utilities, insurance, fuel etc prices aren't through the roof.

And when the next President and then the next can’t meet this standard? The world economy has changed. 1960 is not coming back.

 

[ozso]

And when the next President and then the next can’t meet this standard? The world economy has changed. 1960 is not coming back.

People aren't looking back to 1960, they're looking back to 2019.

 

[comana]

People aren't looking back to 1960, they're looking back to 2019.

A pandemic happened across the globe. Trump was along for the ride. Had he won a second term, nothing would be different.

 

[ozso]

A pandemic happened across the globe. Trump was along for the ride. Had he won a second term, nothing would be different.

The question is who's more likely to possibly make it better. Not 1960s better, just better than it's been the last 4 years.

 

[FireDragon76]

The question is who's more likely to possibly make it better. Not 1960s better, just better than it's been the last 4 years.

The economy in the past couple of years has been at least as good as the economy under Trump and Obama.