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U.S. economy grows at blockbuster 4.9% pace in third quarter

essentialsaltes

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GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from July to September, the highest reading since 2021

New government data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that gross domestic product expanded between July and September, capping five straight quarters of growth and eluding a long-feared recession.

That spending was broad-based in the third quarter, with U.S. households doubling down on both necessities, such as housing, utilities and prescription drugs, as well as luxuries including dining out, hotel stays and recreation. Businesses and the federal government also continued to spend, though GDP was dragged down by lower non-residential investments.

Overall, the latest spike in GDP is more than double the previous quarter’s annual growth rate of 2.1 percent.
 

Pommer

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GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from July to September, the highest reading since 2021

New government data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that gross domestic product expanded between July and September, capping five straight quarters of growth and eluding a long-feared recession.

That spending was broad-based in the third quarter, with U.S. households doubling down on both necessities, such as housing, utilities and prescription drugs, as well as luxuries including dining out, hotel stays and recreation. Businesses and the federal government also continued to spend, though GDP was dragged down by lower non-residential investments.

Overall, the latest spike in GDP is more than double the previous quarter’s annual growth rate of 2.1 percent.
This is clearly wrong as we’ve been told that Biden’s economy is in free fall.
 
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wing2000

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The consumer spending seems to be driven by "the haves":

“There’s been an enormous increase in wealth since Covid,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior economist for the bank BNP Paribas, referring to recent Fed data that showed median net worth climbed 37 percent from 2019 to 2022. “People still take not just one vacation, not just two, but three and four.”

That level of spending by higher-income earners in turn fueled robust job growth in service industries like hotels and restaurants even as sectors that benefited from pandemic shopping trends, like transportation and warehousing, returned to more normal levels.

There are indications that consumers are running out of dry powder. Disposable personal income, adjusted for inflation, decreased in the quarter, as did the personal savings rate.

 
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The Barbarian

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This is clearly wrong as we’ve been told that Biden’s economy is in free fall.
It's simple; if the economy is doing well, jobs are plentiful and large corporations have to pay higher wages and better benefits. A strong economy is a disaster from Donald Trump's POV.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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It's simple; if the economy is doing well, jobs are plentiful and large corporations have to pay higher wages and better benefits. A strong economy is a disaster from Donald Trump's POV.
To play devil's advocate on this...

What say ye to the claims that much of the recovery of the 18 months or so would've happened just by the nature us coming out of the "emergency pandemic" phase of covid"?

I do feel it's a fair critique by conservatives when they highlight the fact that if you forcibly shut down large segments of the economy (which results in job losses), the mere reopening (and the job gains that immediately follow) are going to happen organically regardless of extraneous economic policies.

...and that theory does seem to be reflected in state-level job growth numbers. And the fact that the pattern is very similar in both red and blue states points toward "conservative vs. liberal" economic policies being of minimal impact in comparison to "you all have to close and stay home" followed by "okay, let 'er rip"

For instance, let's compare the states that respective proponents claim to be the "gold standards" of conservative and liberal policies. Florida and California.

Pre-pandemic Florida had an unemployment rate of 3.0. From March to May of 2020, Florida's unemployment rate went to 14.1, within 6 months of reopening, they were back down to 4.6 (and then it slowly went back to baseline 3.0 in the subsequent 8 months)

Pre-pandemic Cali was at at a 4.2. From March to May of 2020, they jumped up to 15.8. They waited longer to fully reopen and remove capacity restrictions, but when they did, in 6 months, they went down to a 6.5, and in the subsequent 8 months, they were back to near baseline and dropped to a 4.1.

Newsom and DeSantis obviously have very different approaches to economics and regulation...yet their trajectories were almost identical (and it's the same story for just about any state you look up)

In many ways, Biden was able to "ride that wave" so to speak by being the guy who happened to be in the "big chair" when things went from "still mostly closed" to "mostly reopened again".
 
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The Barbarian

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What say ye to the claims that much of the recovery of the 18 months or so would've happened just by the nature us coming out of the "emergency pandemic" phase of covid"?
You might check how it went with previous pandemics. Yes, botching the response to the pandemic in the U.S. led to greater economic damage, which means Biden looks better just because he handled the pandemic more rationally than Trump did. And that's a lot more than not telling people to inject themselves with disinfectant. But the infrastructure bill was probably a bigger boost:

Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill will boost competitiveness for decades


...and that theory does seem to be reflected in state-level job growth numbers. And the fact that the pattern is very similar in both red and blue states points toward "conservative vs. liberal" economic policies being of minimal impact in comparison to "you all have to close and stay home" followed by "okay, let 'er rip"
I do notice that pretty much every republican politician who fought the recovery plan with everything they had, are now lining up to show up at the ribbon-cuttings, pretending it was all their ideas. McConnell was at least gracious enough at one of these, to appear with Biden and credit him with the bill that has helped the economy in red and in blue states.

Newsom and DeSantis obviously have very different approaches to economics and regulation...yet their trajectories were almost identical (and it's the same story for just about any state you look up)
Pretty much the intent of the infrastructure bill. But yes, DeSantis denounced it, and is now trying to take credit for it.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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You might check how it went with previous pandemics. Yes, botching the response to the pandemic in the U.S. led to greater economic damage, which means Biden looks better just because he handled the pandemic more rationally than Trump did. And that's a lot more than not telling people to inject themselves with disinfectant. But the infrastructure bill was probably a bigger boost:

Joe Biden’s infrastructure bill will boost competitiveness for decades



I do notice that pretty much every republican politician who fought the recovery plan with everything they had, are now lining up to show up at the ribbon-cuttings, pretending it was all their ideas. McConnell was at least gracious enough at one of these, to appear with Biden and credit him with the bill that has helped the economy in red and in blue states.


Pretty much the intent of the infrastructure bill. But yes, DeSantis denounced it, and is now trying to take credit for it.

You're drifting off into the political punditry here...that's not my aim. I voted for Biden (though I'll stay home if my choices are him vs. Trump again) and have gone on record as saying I have not, and would not, ever vote for Trump.

That aside,
I don't care about who said to inject bleach or who said people should wear 3 masks and get 4 booster shots.

I'm talking about the raw economic impacts.

If the government forcibly closes businesses (thus spurring job losses and bad economic impacts), is whomever the president is (regardless of party) reaping the benefits of when the government says "okay, everyone go back to normal"?

The answer is "yes", correct?

A complete doofus like Alex Jones could've been president, and still put up some of the must impressive unemployment reductions in history had he been the guy who was in the seat when things went from closed to open.
 
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The Barbarian

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You're drifting off into the political punditry here...that's not my aim. I voted for Biden (though I'll stay home if my choices are him vs. Trump again) and have gone on record as saying I have not, and would not, ever vote for Trump.

That aside,
I don't care about who said to inject bleach or who said people should wear 3 masks and get 4 booster shots.

I'm talking about the raw economic impacts.
It matters. If we had done more, and more effective things early on, it would have saved hundreds of thousands of American lives. With the corresponding economic benefits. Very early in the pandemic:

May, 2020

Study finds earlier coronavirus restrictions in US could have saved 36,000 lives.

After researchers at Columbia University this week estimated about 36,000 lives in the United States could have been saved from the novel coronavirus had social distancing and other restrictions been put in place a week earlier in March, the White House on Thursday pointed a finger at China

I'm talking about the raw economic impacts.
Me, too. All those deaths and hospitalizations were a huge hit on the economy. We did a lot worse than the rest of the developed world, because the administration had no effective response at the critical early phases of the pandemic. Ironically, there was a Pandemic Response Team for such things; Trump removed it.

And as even guys like Mitch McConnell admitted, the infrastructure bill was a very effective way to rebuild America while boosting the economy. It wasn't just doing a better job of handling COVID-19.
 
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ThatRobGuy

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It matters. If we had done more, and more effective things early on, it would have saved hundreds of thousands of American lives. With the corresponding economic benefits. Very early in the pandemic:
Saving lives doesn't equate to a de facto economic improvement as the measures you speak of would've further disrupted the economy in ways that we have no way of knowing the extent of.

In order to save those lives, it would've had to have been a lockdown protocol that matched that of the countries that did save the most lives, and those countries experience a greater economic impact.

Per the department of the Treasury.

the United States performed better than other G7 economies (and the Euro area) in terms of real GDP recovery. The fast recovery in the United States reflects a more complete recovery in domestic consumption.

It's going to sound harsh, but it's because large portions of the US opted to weigh countervailing interests and make the decision that "it doesn't make sense to entirely cripple our economy in the interest of making sure that an 81 year old makes it to 85"

As I said, it sounds harsh, but any policymaker worth their salt has to be willing to make those kinds of pros/cons tradeoffs.


May, 2020

Study finds earlier coronavirus restrictions in US could have saved 36,000 lives.

After researchers at Columbia University this week estimated about 36,000 lives in the United States could have been saved from the novel coronavirus had social distancing and other restrictions been put in place a week earlier in March, the White House on Thursday pointed a finger at China

That's not a compelling number.

There's more than 40,000 auto related deaths involving speeds over 25mph each year in the US. One could just as easily say "if we heavily restricted cars and driving over 25mph, we could save 40,000 lives each year"...it would be a true statement. Feasible or in the best interest of the other aspects of the economy? Not so much...
Me, too. All those deaths and hospitalizations were a huge hit on the economy. We did a lot worse than the rest of the developed world, because the administration had no effective response at the critical early phases of the pandemic. Ironically, there was a Pandemic Response Team for such things; Trump removed it.

And as even guys like Mitch McConnell admitted, the infrastructure bill was a very effective way to rebuild America while boosting the economy. It wasn't just doing a better job of handling COVID-19.
You'll have to show your work on that one.

Explain to me, in practical terms, how fewer people collecting benefits and less people competing for jobs creates a worse economic outcome.

Again, I know it sounds harsh, and my goal isn't to minimize the death and suffering covid caused. But in practical terms...explain to me how if there were 20,000 software developers before covid, and 5,000 of them died off from it (which is an inflated example), how my life as a software developer (or my market negotiating advantage against the corporate fat-cats) would've been made worse by that outcome?


To clarify, I'm not suggesting any of it was a good thing...I'm simply saying in terms of raw numbers in an actuarial sense, fewer elderly people collecting benefits, and fewer people competing in the job market certainly doesn't hurt the situation in terms of employee leverage over corporations and certainly doesn't hurt the unemployment numbers.
 
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Pommer

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Saving lives doesn't equate to a de facto economic improvement as the measures you speak of would've further disrupted the economy in ways that we have no way of knowing the extent of.

In order to save those lives, it would've had to have been a lockdown protocol that matched that of the countries that did save the most lives, and those countries experience a greater economic impact.

Per the department of the Treasury.

the United States performed better than other G7 economies (and the Euro area) in terms of real GDP recovery. The fast recovery in the United States reflects a more complete recovery in domestic consumption.

It's going to sound harsh, but it's because large portions of the US opted to weigh countervailing interests and make the decision that "it doesn't make sense to entirely cripple our economy in the interest of making sure that an 81 year old makes it to 85"

As I said, it sounds harsh, but any policymaker worth their salt has to be willing to make those kinds of pros/cons tradeoffs.



That's not a compelling number.

There's more than 40,000 auto related deaths involving speeds over 25mph each year in the US. One could just as easily say "if we heavily restricted cars and driving over 25mph, we could save 40,000 lives each year"...it would be a true statement. Feasible or in the best interest of the other aspects of the economy? Not so much...

You'll have to show your work on that one.

Explain to me, in practical terms, how fewer people collecting benefits and less people competing for jobs creates a worse economic outcome.

Again, I know it sounds harsh, and my goal isn't to minimize the death and suffering covid caused. But in practical terms...explain to me how if there were 20,000 software developers before covid, and 5,000 of them died off from it (which is an inflated example), how my life as a software developer (or my market negotiating advantage against the corporate fat-cats) would've been made worse by that outcome?


To clarify, I'm not suggesting any of it was a good thing...I'm simply saying in terms of raw numbers in an actuarial sense, fewer elderly people collecting benefits, and fewer people competing in the job market certainly doesn't hurt the situation in terms of employee leverage over corporations and certainly doesn't hurt the unemployment numbers.
I think a point that might go missing is that the 4.9% growth might be because (in some small part) the billions “given” to Ukraine (older weapons) means that we are buying new equipment for ourselves this boosting the defense sector and high-tide-raises-all-boats and like that?
 
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AlexB23

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GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from July to September, the highest reading since 2021

New government data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that gross domestic product expanded between July and September, capping five straight quarters of growth and eluding a long-feared recession.

That spending was broad-based in the third quarter, with U.S. households doubling down on both necessities, such as housing, utilities and prescription drugs, as well as luxuries including dining out, hotel stays and recreation. Businesses and the federal government also continued to spend, though GDP was dragged down by lower non-residential investments.

Overall, the latest spike in GDP is more than double the previous quarter’s annual growth rate of 2.1 percent.
Numbers mean nothing. Millions of folks in the USA struggle in these times. But yes, overall, the economy is doing better on average compared to 2022. But the economy is going especially well for Musk and the billionaires at the car, drug and tech companies. ;)

A few economists have tossed around the idea of taxing any extra wealth above a billion dollars to 100%, but there are debates. Source 1 talks about how banning billionaires is a good idea, while source 2 talks about potential risks of banning billionaires.

Source 1: Top 5 ways billionaires are bad for the economy

Source 2: Economic Impact of Banning Billionaires: An Analysis of Wealth Accumulation and Market Dynamics | YIP Institute (Opinion Article)
 
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FireDragon76

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You're drifting off into the political punditry here...that's not my aim. I voted for Biden (though I'll stay home if my choices are him vs. Trump again) and have gone on record as saying I have not, and would not, ever vote for Trump.

That aside,
I don't care about who said to inject bleach or who said people should wear 3 masks and get 4 booster shots.

I'm talking about the raw economic impacts.

If the government forcibly closes businesses (thus spurring job losses and bad economic impacts), is whomever the president is (regardless of party) reaping the benefits of when the government says "okay, everyone go back to normal"?

The answer is "yes", correct?

A complete doofus like Alex Jones could've been president, and still put up some of the must impressive unemployment reductions in history had he been the guy who was in the seat when things went from closed to open.

Alot of the lingering economic problems were actually due to how COVID impacted China and consequent supply chain problems.
 
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wing2000

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Numbers mean nothing. Millions of folks in the USA struggle in these times. But yes, overall, the economy is doing better on average compared to 2022. But the economy is going especially well for Musk and the billionaires at the car, drug and tech companies. ;)

....have you see the latest earnings from Tesla?

And in a win for workers:
“Ford has agreed to a 25% increase over the life of the contract, which extends slightly beyond four years,” Bloomberg reported. “That isn’t the 40% sought originally but initial negotiating positions hardly ever make it through talks intact and it is still a huge win for the UAW. In addition, starting wages rise by 68%, according to the UAW, and top wages by a third.”
 
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AlexB23

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....have you see the latest earnings from Tesla?

And in a win for workers:
“Ford has agreed to a 25% increase over the life of the contract, which extends slightly beyond four years,” Bloomberg reported. “That isn’t the 40% sought originally but initial negotiating positions hardly ever make it through talks intact and it is still a huge win for the UAW. In addition, starting wages rise by 68%, according to the UAW, and top wages by a third.”
I am glad that the UAW is fighting for higher wages. :) And yeah, Tesla earnings for Q3 of 2023 are $2.3B, which is a lot, but has slumped 37% from a year prior. But still, Musk has $250B. So, change is happening for the better, but it will take time for all industries outside automobile manufacturing to get good union support.
 
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I am glad that the UAW is fighting for higher wages. :) And yeah, Tesla earnings for Q3 of 2023 are $2.3B, which is a lot, but has slumped 37% from a year prior. But still, Musk has $250B. So, change is happening for the better, but it will take time for all industries outside automobile manufacturing to get good union support.
Tax the rich.
 
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Vambram

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Tax the rich.
Do you all realize that a significant majority of all federal taxes are being paid by the top 20% of the income earners in the USA?
 
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essentialsaltes

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Do you all realize that a significant majority of all federal taxes are being paid by the top 20% of the income earners in the USA?
The top 20% also earn a significant majority of all AGI, so that certainly checks out.
 
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