Did COVID Vaccines Kill Huge Numbers of UK Care Home Residents?

[JustSomeBloke]

Daily COVID deaths data is readily available from UK government sources. The UK vaccine roll out commenced on 8th December 2020, starting with the most vulnerable, who were typically elderly people living in care homes. At that point in time, the daily deaths appeared to have peaked. Shortly after the vaccine roll out began in care homes, the number of daily COVID deaths rapidly increased. Furthermore, it is known that:
1. Elderly people received the first vaccine available, which was the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
2. The Astra Zeneca vaccine can cause blood clotting (although this was not acknowledged until much later).
3. Symptoms of blood clotting can appear very similar to COVID symptoms (severe shortness of breath, for example).
4. It would be possible for an overly sensitive PCR test to detect spike protein from a vaccination, and cause a positive COVID test result.

Below is a chart of UK daily COVID deaths, created using UK government data. The red line marks the point in time when the first vaccinations were given to care home residents.

Clearly correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but it does seem interesting that just when it appeared that deaths had peaked, vaccinations commenced, and the daily deaths started to rapidly increase. Also, it would seem strange if the COVID virus suddenly mutated to became more lethal, as that would overturn long-established knowledge on how these pathogens typically evolve.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Daily COVID deaths data is readily available from UK government sources. The UK vaccine roll out commenced on 8th December 2020, starting with the most vulnerable, who were typically elderly people living in care homes. At that point in time, the daily deaths appeared to have peaked. Shortly after the vaccine roll out began in care homes, the number of daily COVID deaths rapidly increased. Furthermore, it is known that:
1. Elderly people received the first vaccine available, which was the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
2. The Astra Zeneca vaccine can cause blood clotting (although this was not acknowledged until much later).
3. Symptoms of blood clotting can appear very similar to COVID symptoms (severe shortness of breath, for example).
4. It would be possible for an overly sensitive PCR test to detect spike protein from a vaccination, and cause a positive COVID test result.

Below is a chart of UK daily COVID deaths, created using UK government data. The red line marks the point in time when the first vaccinations were given to care home residents.

View attachment 302303

Clearly correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but it does seem interesting that just when it appeared that deaths had peaked, vaccinations commenced, and the daily deaths started to rapidly increase. Also, it would seem strange if the COVID virus suddenly mutated to became more lethal, as that would overturn long-established knowledge on how these pathogens typically evolve.

You should have a separate graph of number of people vaccinated over time. When a vaccine is first introduced the effective number of people vaccinated at first is "zero". Vaccines will protect the few that have had a vaccination, but to protect a population herd immunity needs to have been introduced.

All that your graph shows is that the vaccine was first introduced in the middle of a surge. There is no meaningful data there.

 

[JustSomeBloke]

You should have a separate graph of number of people vaccinated over time.

Unfortunately the COVID vaccinations data appears to be unreliable. News reports clearly show that people were receiving COVID vaccinations on 8th December 2020, but the UK vaccination data appears to begin on 11 January 2021. I don't know why it is that way, perhaps it's a government coverup. It certainly seems odd that people were being vaccinated in December, but there are no records for those vaccinations in the official vaccination data.

Vaccines will protect the few that have had a vaccination

You can't ignore the fact that the Astra Zeneca vaccine causes blood clots in some recipients. Ultimately, some people may benefit from the vaccination, others may die from the blood clots it can cause. Elderly care home residents in their eighties are typically fairly immobile and physically inactive, and would be particularly vulnerable to blood clotting.

All that your graph shows is that the vaccine was first introduced in the middle of a surge.

At the time vaccinations commenced in care homes, daily COVID deaths were stable or in slight decline. Can't you see that? To put it another way, if you filtered the noise with a moving average, then calculated the gradient of the COVID daily deaths line on 8th December 2020, it would be zero or slightly negative.

 

[Occams Barber]

Clearly correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but it does seem interesting that just when it appeared that deaths had peaked, vaccinations commenced, and the daily deaths started to rapidly increase.

It's true that correlation does not necessarily imply causation but in this case you have nothing even remotely implying a correlation. You are comparing a point in time when vaccinations began with an overall trend line for all Covid deaths. You have no comparative numbers on vaccinations or vaccinations for older people and no data isolating the death trend for elderly people in care. For all you know the deaths occurring after vaccination started may be in a much younger cohort.

Incidentally, Astra Zeneca is recommended here (in Australia) for people over 60. The blood clot problem relates to younger people and is a relatively small risk. Younger people can still take Astra Zeneca but medical advice is recommended.

Also, it would seem strange if the COVID virus suddenly mutated to became more lethal, as that would overturn long-established knowledge on how these pathogens typically evolve.

There's nothing strange about a virus mutating. All virus' mutate. Its the reason we have a new flu vax every year. Sometimes virus' can become more infectious or more lethal through mutation. The Delta variant (a mutation of Covid 19) is more infectious.

What is this "long established knowledge on how pathogens typically evolve"?

OB

 

[partinobodycular]

So how do you account for the precipitous drop in deaths beginning on Jan.18?

The above chart shows that full immunity begins on Jan.10th, and the drop in deaths begins one week later, so the most reasonable conclusion is that the precipitous drop in deaths is due to the vaccinations. If vaccinations were the cause of the surge in deaths then why the sudden precipitous drop as vaccinations accelerated?

 

[JustSomeBloke]

For all you know the deaths occurring after vaccination started may be in a much younger cohort.

As far as I am aware, the average age of a UK COVID fatality has barely changed over time. Last time I checked it was still around 82.4 years. It's mathematically impossible for COVID to kill large numbers of young unvaccinated people, while still maintaining an average COVID fatality age of 82.4 years.

By the way, the average age of a UK COVID fatality is slightly greater than average UK life expectancy. From that point of view, I'd expect the average age in a UK care home to be around the same age, as that is where people who are at the end of their life reside. They need 24/7 care, such as help with basic tasks, and typically only have a few years left.

Incidentally, Astra Zeneca is recommended here (in Australia) for people over 60. The blood clot problem relates to younger people and is a relatively small risk. Younger people can still take Astra Zeneca but medical advice is recommended.

Killing young people with a vaccine that causes blood clots tends to be rather more obvious, as young people are generally in fairly good health, and people may start asking awkward questions. Knowing the risks, most governments probably don't dare give younger people the Astra Zeneca vaccine, as it's much harder to ignore all the extra deaths.

There's nothing strange about a virus mutating. All virus' mutate. Its the reason we have a new flu vax every year. Sometimes virus' can become more infectious or more lethal through mutation.

Viruses that kill people very quickly don't tend to circulate in populations for very long, because dead people can't walk around coughing and sneezing on other people. Typically that means that the less lethal but more infectious mutations circulate in the population for longer, and infect more people. It's one reason why all pandemics eventually end of their own accord.

There's nothing strange about a virus mutating. All virus' mutate. Its the reason we have a new flu vax every year. Sometimes virus' can become more infectious or more lethal through mutation. The Delta variant (a mutation of Covid 19) is more infectious.

Less lethal and more infectious is what would typically be expected from mutations that are effective in spreading. It's also means that all the scare stories about more lethal COVID variants are most likely government propaganda and lies.

What is this "long established knowledge on how pathogens typically evolve"?

I've described it briefly above. I'm sure you can find more information if you're interested.

So how do you account for the precipitous drop in deaths beginning on Jan.18?

It's quite possible that the daily deaths peaked after 10th January 2021 because most of the elderly people who were most susceptible to blood clotting had already died from their vaccination(s) by then. There are sometimes multiple ways to explain the same data and observations. Don't you think it's important to consider other explanations?

And I already said that some people could benefit from vaccination, while others may die from blood clots caused by vaccination.

Ultimately, some people may benefit from the vaccination, others may die from the blood clots it can cause.

The chart shows that full immunity begins on Jan.10th, and the drop in deaths begins one week later, so the most reasonable conclusion is that the precipitous drop in deaths is due to the vaccinations. If vaccinations were the cause of the surge in deaths then why the sudden precipitous drop as vaccinations accelerated?

As I said, it's quite possible that vaccinations killed some, and protected others. Everyone reacts differently to these vaccines.

Can you explain why the daily deaths appeared to have peaked or plateaued before vaccinations started, and then rapidly increased after vaccinations commenced on 8th December 2020?

 

[pitabread]

It's also means that all the scare stories about more lethal COVID variants are most likely government propaganda and lies.

The stories are based on published scientific findings. So unless you're accusing the world's scientists of being in on a conspiracy, this is an utterly baseless claim of yours.

 

[Bungle_Bear]

UK eased lockdown restrictions and allowed far too much social interaction over the Xmas period. There was a spike in infections which inevitably led to an increase in deaths.

Simple explanation which matches the data.

 

[Ophiolite]

The stories are based on published scientific findings. So unless you're accusing the world's scientists of being in on a conspiracy, this is an utterly baseless claim of yours.

!!Why, didn't you know, even the word scientist is an anagram of conspiracy!!

 

[Strathos]

Even though this is a forum thread and not a news article, I think Betteridge's Law of Headlines applies here.

 

[Ophiolite]

Incidentally, Astra Zeneca is recommended here (in Australia) for people over 60. The blood clot problem relates to younger people and is a relatively small risk. Younger people can still take Astra Zeneca but medical advice is recommended.

I think you are mistaken. The blood clot problem exists to an equivalent, or greater extent for older people, but the risks are still substantially less than that of contracting Covid. The younger you are the less likely you are to suffer adverse effects from Covid and so the odds begin to approach each other.
I see no problem with that scenario and took Astra Zeneca for my two shots on that basis.

 

[Occams Barber]

I think you are mistaken. The blood clot problem exists to an equivalent, or greater extent for older people, but the risks are still substantially less than that of contracting Covid. The younger you are the less likely you are to suffer adverse effects from Covid and so the odds begin to approach each other.
I see no problem with that scenario and took Astra Zeneca for my two shots on that basis.

This from the Australian Health Dept website
(Is it true? Does the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine cause blood clots? | Australian Government Department of Health )

According to Aus Health the clot risk decreases with age although there is an uptick after the age of 70. In Australia Astra Zeneca is the recommended vax for over 60s (like me).

OB

 

[Subduction Zone]

Unfortunately the COVID vaccinations data appears to be unreliable. News reports clearly show that people were receiving COVID vaccinations on 8th December 2020, but the UK vaccination data appears to begin on 11 January 2021. I don't know why it is that way, perhaps it's a government coverup. It certainly seems odd that people were being vaccinated in December, but there are no records for those vaccinations in the official vaccination data.

All that is needed to refute this is a "So what"? Vaccination rates began rather slowly. The U.S. may have gotten their vaccines out a few days earlier than Britain did. Why do you think there is any need of a conspiracy. In the US the first vaccines went to health care workers at hospitals. And this makes sense for various reasons. Since they are working directly with Covid patients they were at extremely high risk. Second since they are working with people at risk they themselves could spread the disease themselves, and to those that would not be able to fight it off easily.

Covid-19: First vaccine given in US as roll-out begins

You can't ignore the fact that the Astra Zeneca vaccine causes blood clots in some recipients. Ultimately, some people may benefit from the vaccination, others may die from the blood clots it can cause. Elderly care home residents in their eighties are typically fairly immobile and physically inactive, and would be particularly vulnerable to blood clotting.

In very very few people. If one is elderly the risk from Covid is far far greater. One needs to take relative risk into consideration. I am not ignoring anything. But it does appear that you are ignoring how the virus has killed over 4,000,000 people around the globe. How many people have the vaccines killed?

At the time vaccinations commenced in care homes, daily COVID deaths were stable or in slight decline. Can't you see that? To put it another way, if you filtered the noise with a moving average, then calculated the gradient of the COVID daily deaths line on 8th December 2020, it would be zero or slightly negative.

That was due to extreme measures taken to protect those people and they were not happy with it. No visitors. Limited communication even between other residents. For example, most nursing homes have the option of eating in a communal dining room. The nursing hone that I was working in at that time did what others did, they shut down their dining rooms. People had to eat in their rooms. The elderly are often lonely and this disease only made it worse.

And now, you can't have "negative deaths" the vaccine is good, but it is not that good. There is no point in giving a corpse a vaccination. Nor does the vaccine give 100% protection. It gives an enormous amount of protection, so much so that the recent surge is overwhelmingly a surge of the unvaccinated. A few vaccinated people still get the disease. Though their serious cases is extremely low.

In other words if you get the vaccine it is very unlikely that you will get it again. And if by some odds you do get the disease again the chances of death are greatly reduced. Even if all that we had was Astra Zeneca it would still make sense to give people that vaccine.

The question is why would anyone in their right mind be against taking the vaccine?

 

[Ophiolite]

This from the Australian Health Dept website
(Is it true? Does the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine cause blood clots? | Australian Government Department of Health )

View attachment 302456

According to Aus Health the clot risk decreases with age although there is an uptick after the age of 70. In Australia Astra Zeneca is the recommended vax for over 60s (like me).

OB

Interesting. I've either based my understanding on old data, or misinterpreted current data, (or the UK experts hold a different view, or the UK authoriities presented a different view).
Of course the bottom line remains Vaccine good / Covid bad

 

[MyOwnSockPuppet]

1. Elderly people received the first vaccine available, which was the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
2. The Astra Zeneca vaccine can cause blood clotting (although this was not acknowledged until much later).
3. Symptoms of blood clotting can appear very similar to COVID symptoms (severe shortness of breath, for example).
4. It would be possible for an overly sensitive PCR test to detect spike protein from a vaccination, and cause a positive COVID test result.

The AZ vaccine was only licenced for use outside trials on 30 December 2020, and wasn't first given until 4 January 2021 (see here: Covid: Brian Pinker, 82, first to get Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine ), Everything given before this was the Pfeizer.

On your graph the maximum was on 19 January. The death rate was already rising as rapidly as it ever had by the time the AZ vaccine was first used.

 

[HeartNSoul19]

There is a lag in time between the start of vaccinations and the lowering of the death-rate as a result of that vaccination, the increase in deaths as vaccination began is attributed to the Covid disease itself and not the vaccination.

In every country by now we have enough data to definitively say that the vaccines have alleviated mortality from Covid to a very significant degree.

 

[stevil]

It is a fact that when more ice creams are sold at beaches that more people die at the beach.
We must not buy ice creams! Refuse to have them!

 

[Bungle_Bear]

It is a fact that when more ice creams are sold at beaches that more people die at the beach.

Citation?

 

[lesliedellow]

No they didn’t, but an incompetent “government” discharging COVID patients from hospital straight into care homes, because of a shortage of hospital beds, did.

 

[stevil]

Citation?

Deadly ice cream