Which you've not provided any actual data on, beyond hypotheticals.
I've admitted it's hard to find data on these specifics.
I'm not sure why you think it's an indication I'm wrong.
Again....I'm not trying to perfectly measure a number of people that cannot be perfectly measured.
I said the estimate (and that's exactly what it is) of 11 million people never really changes in the past 10 years...and you give examples of the estimate fluctuating by a million people one way or the other.
Let's start with the obvious.....it's an estimate. Illegal immigrants don't want to be identified and removed so there's really only one way to know how many are here.
You would have to count them in the census.
Remember when we tried to do that? People freaked out even though it wasn't information that could legally be used to deport them?
Well that's the only way to have any real evidence of how many people are here illegally. Every other method requires guesswork based upon estimated values.
Do you understand that? If you gave me examples that showed it at 14 million one year and 8 million another...this would be a valid criticism. There's a Princeton study (I think it's Princeton, maybe Yale) that uses a slightly different methodology and concludes that the number is closer to 22-24 million.
When I say that the estimate is about 11 million people consistently year after year.....and you show that the number is around 11 million year after year give or take a few hundred thousand....
We're literally saying the same thing....unless you think that is the actual number and not a guess based on estimated values.
If you think it's the actual number.....say so....and I'll explain why you're wrong.
DHS paper from 2017:
DHS estimates that 12.0 million illegal aliens were living in the United States in January 2015, compared to 11.5 million in January 2014 and 11.6 million in January 2010. On average, the population grew by 70,000 per year from 2010 to 2015, compared to 470,000 per year during the high-growth years leading up to the Great Recession (2000-2007). Of the total illegal alien population in 2015, nearly 80 percent had resided within the United States for more than 10 years and six percent entered during the previous five years (2010 to 2014). About 55 percent of illegal aliens in 2015 were from Mexico.
Pew Research estimates that in 2017, the number of unathorised immigrants in the US was at its lowest level in a decade (a population of about 10.5 million). That number is down from about 12.2 million in 2009.
The Centre for Migration Studies comes to a similar conclusion. Their estimate is that from 2008 to 2015, the net population of unathorised immigrants fell by about 540,000 (to just over 11 million). The same centre also estimates that net immigration (legal AND illegal) averaged 203,000 per year between 2017 and 2019. To quote them:
"The slowdown in growth is entirely due to a decline in non-citizens in the country; the number of naturalized citizens continues to grow. This is probably an indication that some illegal immigrants left or fewer arrived, primarily from Mexico. It may also indicate that more long-term visitors are headed home instead of overstaying their visas."
Heyyyy....great. Information about illegal immigration patterns that apply almost entirely to the past and not the present. In 2014 the head of DHS described a pattern shift in illegal immigration which he concluded would be a problem.
The Obama Administration’s Government-Wide Response to Influx of Central American Migrants at the Southwest Border
It's literally the Obama administration describing a broad shift change in illegal immigration from what was mostly Mexican illegal immigrants who were not likely to seek a permanent status....to a rapid increase in families coming from nations south of Mexico to stay permanently.
This pattern continues in 2015....and increases even more in 2016. We can look at the agency heads saying the same.
Does this description of the problem change under Trump? Not really. It actually increases in both the number of people it describes and how they adapt to policy changes implemented to keep them out....but it still describes a shift away from Mexican illegals seeking temporary work to Central Americans seeking permanent status.
Now, I'm talking about the agency heads....not the political rhetoric from either sides' politicians.
The US Census Bureau reports the foreign born non-citizen population in the US (legal and illegal) has declined from a peak of about 22.8 in 2017 million to less than 20 million as of early 2020.
That's an odd number.
Why don't they just have information on the illegal immigrants? Why would we lump them together with the legal ones?
So, the population of illegal immigrants into the US has gone through a period of growth, peaked and now is declining.
If we're talking about illegal immigrants seeking to stay....this statement is 100% false.