Your Electoral College Predictions

[Clizby WampusCat]

So here is my prediction. I think Trump will get AZ too but he may not need it.

 

[LostMarbels]

What are your final Electoral College predictions? For simplicity, I will use Biden projections. In case you are math impaired, the formula is:
538 Electoral votes minus Biden Electoral votes= Trump Electoral votes.

*****Poll closes Election Day******

Trump: 312

Biden: 226

= 538 (for the mathematically impaired)

 

[mark46]

Curiously, I am fine with this prediction, with only ONE exception. Trump will NOT take MI. Biden will win MI by at least 5 percentage points.

So here is my prediction. I think Trump will get AZ too but he may not need it.

 

[Arcangl86]

My prediction is 319 for Biden.

 

[mark46]

Interesting to me is how how close we will be to a winner by the time we wake up on Wednesday. As I recall, in 2016 it was over, with AZ still not decided.

 

[98cwitr]

Posting this for future reference

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Final Election Forecast

 

[Vylo]

well, good thing no one bet under 150, Biden will already pass that by the end of the night

 

[Vylo]

anyone who bet under 200 is now wrong as well.

 

[Vylo]

Almost certain any 350+ calls were wrong to (whoops)

 

[mark46]

No media source has projected WI, MI, PA or VA.

The presumption is that Biden will take VA and AZ tonight, leaving WI, MI and PA for Wed-Fri. Last time, AZ and MI were out after TUES night. Either candidate wins with 2 of the 3 states.

 

[Goonie]

No media source has projected WI, MI, PA or VA.

The presumption is that Biden will take VA and AZ tonight, leaving WI, MI and PA for Wed-Fri. Last time, AZ and MI were out after TUES night. Either candidate wins with 2 of the 3 states.

Donald is leading by double digits in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, that might tighten but given how he is underperforming compared to the polls I think it's all over but for the Fat Donald singing.

 

[mark46]

Biden with 271 if he wins in MI.
Biden with 255 if he doesn't.

So here is my prediction. I think Trump will get AZ too but he may not need it.

 

[mark46]

Donald is leading by double digits in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, that might tighten but given how he is underperforming compared to the polls I think it's all over but for the Fat Donald singing.

What you fail to realize is that very little of the early vote has been counted in MI and PA. Many counties are even starting to cvount these ballots until tomorrow.

 

[Goonie]

What you fail to realize is that very little of the early vote has been counted in MI and PA. Many counties are even starting to cvount these ballots until tomorrow.

True but with 14% lead in Pennsylvania a 11% lead in Michigan with half counted, it is very hard to picture this as anything but a Trump victory.

 

[cow451]

Biden with 271 if he wins in MI.
Biden with 255 if he doesn't.

I’m going to bed. The math looks to have Trump at 280 or so. Biden has no path that I can see now. Much like 2016, Trump wins most of the battleground states.

Congratulations, Trump supporters. Please pm me with any good recipes for crow and humble pie.

Good night and have a pleasant tomorrow.

 

[mark46]

See you guys in the morning. I still think that MI and WI will be Democratic by at least 5%. In PA, NONE of the early vote has been counted in lots of counties. Whoever wins two of the three will be president.

There will some votes coming after midnight from PHI and then again in the morning. The WI vote should be done before we wake up; they are targeting 5AM.

 

[mark46]

True but with 14% lead in Pennsylvania a 11% lead in Michigan with half counted, it is very hard to picture this as anything but a Trump victory.

I certainly don't know the final vote, but the 14% lead will be erased by the PHI vote coming in after midnight and after the 9AM count.

 

[Goonie]

I certainly don't know the final vote, but the 14% lead will be erased by the PHI vote coming in after midnight and after the 9AM count.

Well 55% has been counted and he is now leading by 15% so it is going up.

 

[Erik Nelson]

Fairfax, VA has stopped counting ballots,

packed them in cardboard boxes and are walking them openly through the streets to a "lock box"

Only local news NBC Fairfax has reported pictures on social media

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=368012011297102

"Too tired to keep counting" in Philadelphia could well leave small businesses boarded up out of business for tomorrow

 

[mark46]

Well 55% has been counted and he is now leading by 15% so it is going up.

You may be right in PA. Personally, I don't expect the provisional PA to be final until FRI, with a court case after that. However, this is all moot if the Democrats take AZ, WI and MI.

I don't think even the Trump folks expect to win in MI. They are upset that one of the networks is calling AZ for the Democrats. If true, that would mean the Republicans would have to win in PA and WI.