Your Electoral College Predictions

[cow451]

What are your final Electoral College predictions? For simplicity, I will use Biden projections. In case you are math impaired, the formula is:
538 Electoral votes minus Biden Electoral votes= Trump Electoral votes.

*****Poll closes Election Day******

 

[cow451]

I’ll lead off with predicting Biden wins with 284 EC votes. That means an assumption that Trump closes hard and squeaks out wins in FL, OH, NC, TX, IA, GA and AZ.

 

[Vylo]

Honestly, anyone betting below Clinton's number isn't paying much attention. Odds are extremely slim that Biden loses any state clinton held (the 2 likeliest being Nevada and Minnesota). The most optimistic you can be for Trump is that he loses Wisconsin and Michigan, and keeps the rest, edging past the post by his nose electorally, while being smashed in the popular vote (again).

 

[Vylo]

I'll say 362, being optimistic about PA, though 342 is more likely

 

[Bobber]

I'm guessing Biden will get only between 150-199. Trump ultimately will win big although all the numbers might not be official for a few days.

 

[cow451]

Honestly, anyone betting below Clinton's number isn't paying much attention. Odds are extremely slim that Biden loses any state clinton held (the 2 likeliest being Nevada and Minnesota). The most optimistic you can be for Trump is that he loses Wisconsin and Michigan, and keeps the rest, edging past the post by his nose electorally, while being smashed in the popular vote (again).

I hope you are correct. Part of my projection is to show what an incredible long shot Trump’s chances represent.

 

[Quartermaine]

going to predict a big win for Biden just casue I want to....413 electoral votes

 

[hedrick]

340 assumes half the toss ups go each way. I don’t place a very high degree of confidence in this, though. There are lots of reason polls could be wrong.

 

[tturt]

going to predict a big win for Trump - the media hasn't shut up being against Trump since they recovered from the last election but they're going to be speechless again The numbers will be there

 

[dqhall]

going to predict a big win for Trump - the media hasn't shut up since they recovered from the last election but they're going to be speechless again The numbers will be there

Democrats flipped the House of Representatives by a landslide 2 years ago. Trump was bragging about taking two seats in the Senate. Now he has to worry about multiple jurisdictions investigating him for tax evasion.

 

[Gifts From Above]

I’m predicting a Trump win however I think that the election will be close.

A Biden win would be disastrous for our nation.

 

[Fantine]

I believe that if states compute their votes honestly and don't engage in any further voter suppression Biden will exceed 270 votes easily.

I take heart from the fact that young Hispanic voters have voted in huge numbers (in my experience most have undocumented parents and/or dreamer older siblings, deported parents, extended family and friends in those positions).

I take heart in that in Georgia and Florida (and perhaps other places) early voting totals have already equaled about 90% of 2016's numbers. That means that no matter how many heavily armed scary "poll watchers" come to intimidate honest voters, they won't have an audience.

I am concerned that although the black vote is apparently up, it isn't up by very much in the swing states. I would certainly rather have been at the Biden/Obama/Stevie Wonder rally in PA than listening to hurled insults by DJT amidst piped in music of stars who are suing to keep him from playing the music at his rallies.

 

[Vylo]

I'm guessing Biden will get only between 150-199. Trump ultimately will win big although all the numbers might not be official for a few days.

That's almost an impossibility. Clinton got 232. Biden is polling better than her in every single state. There is record turnout. There are many fewer undecideds. You would basically be hoping a meteor hits california to bet below 200.

 

[Andrewn]

I’ll lead off with predicting Biden wins with 284 EC votes.

I'll say 362, being optimistic about PA, though 342 is more likely

I'm guessing Biden will get only between 150-199.

going to predict a big win for Biden just casue I want to....413 electoral votes

340 assumes half the toss ups go each way.

going to predict a big win for Trump

CBC Presidential Poll Tracker expects Biden to win 368. So, this is my prediction.

 

[hedrick]

CBC Presidential Poll Tracker expects Biden to win 368. So, this is my prediction.

This site shows predictions from a number of different sources: 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. 368 would require almost all undecided states to go for Biden. That's possible, but seems like an odd prediction.

Elections almost always have surprises. We could have anything from a narrow Trump win to a blowout by Biden. One unknown is what the Supreme Court will do. Their rulings so far haven't been encouraging. They've nullified State constitutions, saying that review by State supreme courts mandated by their constitutions aren't allowed. Who knows what else they'll do?

This is a pretty odd theory of government. It's true that the US Constitution gives certain powers to state legislatures. But those legislatures are set up by State constitutions. It's very unlikely that the framers intended to bypass those constitutions. Unfortunately the current textualist ideology doesn't pay attention to what a reasonable person would understand as the meaning. It's the literal meaning, taken out of context.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Trump wins with 750 electoral votes.

 

[cow451]

Trump wins with 750 electoral votes.

Remedial Math class ——>

 

[Bobber]

CBC Presidential Poll Tracker expects Biden to win 368. So, this is my prediction.

OK...let's see how the CBC did after this is over. Make you a deal. As a Canadian myself if they're right I'll promise to take CBC a little bit more serious going ahead. And if they're not and they're way off you'll consider not taking them as serious as you do?

 

[durangodawood]

.....In case you are math impaired, the formula is: 538 Electoral votes minus Biden Electoral votes= Trump Electoral votes.

Uh no. Against all odds the Libertarian or other party could take a few.

 

[durangodawood]

Trump wins with 750 electoral votes.

And 107% of the popular vote.