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Why Japan, China, and most of the world is in big demographic trouble (but the U.S. is not)

Ana the Ist

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On that we can agree. Having access to cheap maids and gardeners is great if you’re wealthy, not so great if you’re a maid or a gardener.

You're not considering the downward effect that has on other occupations. Say you're a nurse, and when the nation is flush with nurses, you aren't making much. It’s a skill set largely inapplicable to much else....but you can always find a job in the service industry. Obviously, you'll make less, but perhaps 10-20k a year is worth a less stressful job with better hours.

Once that service industry is filled with illegals....they won't even hire you. You aren't going to outwork someone facing deportation even if you would work for illegal wages....

Your job is filled with labor, as the lower paying jobs aren't accessible...and your skill set non transferable. If you want to demand better pay....you'll be disappointed.

On the other side of the equation we have those who never finished high school....or just got out of a two year stint in county. What jobs are really available to them if they don't want to turn to crime? Well...those jobs are filled with illegals. Sorry, no jobs for them.

It only helps large corporations rake in increasing profits, shrinks the middle class...and keeps the poor in perpetual poverty.
 
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Desk trauma

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The planet is already near overpopulation, so this does not matter. For me, I am planning on not having any kids. Now this means we should still be pro-life as Christians, but just use common sense when it boils down to making the decision to have 0 or 10 kids.


Carrying capacity: Has Earth reached its carrying capacity?
Malthusians are as bad as Christians when it comes to failed end of the world predictions.
 
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Stephen3141

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As far as the number of people in the country, this trend is correct.

BUT... those coming into the country illegally are almost all uneducated, and without
(good) marketable skills. So, they become homeless people on the streets, or
manual laborers. AND, they know very little about the foundation of American
democracy. And they often don't care about promoting American democracy.

The younger generations in America (the "electronic screen" generations)
also have disturbing trends. They don't seriously read, don't know history, cannot
intelligently discuss basic philosophical ideas (such as, "what is truth"...),
lack critical thinking skills, and demand a big salary for basically doing
uneducated work. These younger generations are becoming a financial
disaster.

Legal immigrants into America, who have real skills, do very well.
They will work hard, don't feel entitled, and appreciate the fair rule
of law here, and the opportunity.

But younger Americans who are children of families that have been in
America for generations, often are not willing to work hard. And, they
are being displaced economically by better educated immigrants.

America may survive, as a population. But the homeless illegal trespassers
will make America look like San Francisco -- a homeless camp. And the children
of longtime American families are often NOT investing in really useful job skills,
and are sliding toward poverty and violent ideological groups. (This is increasingly
the voting base of Donald Trump.)

Things do NOT look good, in America's future.
 
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AlexB23

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Malthusians are as bad as Christians when it comes to failed end of the world predictions.
Pretty much everyone regardless of religion were wrong about the end of the world. I was too young to remember this, but a lot of people said Y2K would be the end, then I remembered 2012, and that was not the end.
 
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Desk trauma

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Pretty much everyone regardless of religion were wrong about the end of the world. I was too young to remember this, but a lot of people said Y2K would be the end, then I remembered 2012, and that was not the end.
And malthusians have been predicting our population outstripping our ability to feed it year after year yet we continue to produce more than enough food and continue to innovate. Almost like they are wrong but keep insisting otherwise.
 
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AlexB23

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And malthusians have been predicting our population outstripping our ability to feed it year after year yet we continue to produce more than enough food and continue to innovate. Almost like they are wrong but keep insisting otherwise.
Eventually our world may surpass carrying capacity, if it has not already, but it would take years to see the effects. So, for now, we are good. Innovation may or may not be slowing down though. But with AI, tech might start picking up again, just hopefully people are careful with AI and use the tech ethically.

Tech stagnation: Technological stagnation: Why I came around
 
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ThatRobGuy

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And malthusians have been predicting our population outstripping our ability to feed it year after year yet we continue to produce more than enough food and continue to innovate. Almost like they are wrong but keep insisting otherwise.
The potential is certainly there to produce food for a lot more people... (although, it would require some Euro countries to reverse course on some of their anti-GMO sentiments)

But I see that challenge as secondary to the overarching problem of the "emissions per person" dynamic.

I think we need to find a way to reduce what that footprint is before we start specifically trying to add more people into the mix.

It's one of those situations where if we try to do it in the other order (pop out the people first, then worry about the climate innovation later), that innovation is less likely to occur.

As I'm sure anyone in a business environment knows, high-pressure "up against a hard & fast approaching deadline" seem to foster more of a "what's the quickest/easiest way to do this?" environment. In which case, the "Quicker/Easier way" to satisfy energy needs for a rapidly increasing population is fossil fuels at the moment.


And with regards to the food situation, while it's true we've reduced a lot of dire food insecurity situations and there are fewer people starving to death, that shouldn't be conflated for "everyone's getting a well-balanced diet conducive to good health"

Sure, people can technically "survive" on a sub-optimal diet for quite a while, but there will be health consequences down the road.

For instance, if you look at certain countries in Africa, while we've been able to bring that "death from starvation rate" way down (which is a good thing), they still have chronic malnutrition rates nearing 30%. That's likely due to the fact that while 2 small meals a day of golden rice and some sort of bean will technically keep a person from starving to death, it's certainly not the diet that will help someone flourish.

Actually this Bill Gates write-up explains the issues pretty well:

I run into a lot of people from rich countries who still think of Africa as a continent of starvation. The fact is, that’s an outdated picture. Thanks to economic growth and smart policies, the extreme hunger and starvation that once defined the continent are now rare. As I saw when I was back in Africa last month with best-selling author John Green, today the issue isn’t quantity of food as much as it is quality—whether kids are getting enough protein and other nutrients to fully develop.
 
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The Barbarian

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Sorry, no. Turns out that immigrants add billions annually to state economies.

Then how come cities like New York, currently flush with illegals, are desperate for aid?
Actually, New York provides more money to the federal government than it gets back in aid. Thought you knew.

Just tell the mayor that the people sleeping in the shelters he built, in the airports and police stations, will add billions of dollars to his economy any day now.
Most of those people aren't immigrants. Most immigrants are working, paying taxes and building the economy. Did you really not know this? That's why Texas reported that their economy gains about $17 billion a year from illegal aliens.

Your comptroller didn't provide any evidence either....
Actually, her report had all the data documented.

and your article made contradicting claims.
It included dissent from an racist group opposed to immigration.
And let's be honest. If you believed that people just needed was a strong work ethic to pull yourself up by the bootstraps in this country....
I'd be an American. Even some conservatives admit this. Ronald Reagan, for example, not only admitted it, he proclaimed it. So being a conservative is not an excuse for you to deny it. You don't like it, because it supports immigration. But it's still true.

U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, is asking the state comptroller to update a study on the fiscal impact of Texas' population of undocumented immigrants.

The request — by way of a letter sent to Comptroller Susan Combs late Tuesday — comes on the heels of an overwhelming U.S. Senate vote to invoke cloture and proceed with debate on the comprehensive immigration reform bill authored by the upper chamber’s “Gang of Eight."

The last time such a state study was performed was in 2006, by then-Comptroller Carol Keeton Strayhorn. The results showed that if the estimated 1.4 million undocumented immigrants who lived in the state in 2005 were sent home, Texas would have lost about $17.7 billion in gross domestic product that year.

The population also produced more in-state revenue that year — $1.58 billion — than the $1.16 billion it cost in state services. Local governments, however, lost about $1.44 billion in combined health care and law enforcement costs that were not reimbursed by the state, according to the study

Combs, whose duties end in January 2015, announced this month that she would not seek another term or run for another office. Her office has said over the years that it had no intention of updating the study, which was authored by a different administration. During the regular session of the 83rd Legislature, however, some bipartisan advocates for immigration reform suggested it was time to update the analysis in order to add more context to an issue deeply shrouded in emotion.

Gallego said renewing the study should be an easy enough task because the framework is in place and the data simply needs to be updated. The results could prove invaluable during the current debate, he added.


I get that you don't want to believe it. But it's a fact. Find a way to live with it.

I have no doubt that when companies lose illegal labor...production decreases. After all....any market that loses labor loses production. The result of this over any significant length of time....is an increase in pay and benefits for workers in order to draw them back into the labor pool.
I know you want to believe this. But as you have seen, that's not the way it works. Economic activity increases GDP, which raises demand for goods and services. Do some reading in a basic economics text to find out why.
 
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RestoreTheJoy

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In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the National Women’s Congress that “We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Such a statement is rich coming from a man, especially one who leads a party that for decades actively and sometimes brutally enforced family planning policies. It is also delusional: In all probability, China’s baby bust cannot be reversed, at least not anytime soon.
...
Yet even if China somehow does defy past trends and manages to boost its national fertility rates substantially, it will take nearly two decades to pay off as babies born today finally enter the workforce. Meanwhile, its top-heavy “constrictive” population pyramid thanks to a decades-long one-child policy—which was only abandoned in 2016—will mean increasing old age dependency and the social and economic costs that come with it.

Read More: China’s Aging Population Is a Major Concern. But Its Youth May Be an Even Bigger Problem

The U.S. has been spared a similar fate than China—all thanks to immigration. The more than 1 million immigrants who come to the U.S. every year are a key underwriter of U.S. national power, leaving aside the thorny domestic politics around immigration policy.

Like the U.S., mass immigration is the only plausible short-term fix for China’s population crisis. But China under Xi has no interest in a Western-style melting pot—like elsewhere in Asia including Japan—that brings in millions of immigrants. He has spent years promoting a Han Chinese national identity.

Nobody has objected to legal, vetted immigration, if that's the point here. There is a big problem with border jumping without vetting everyone first, which has been permitted for the last three years.
 
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The Barbarian

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Nobody has objected to legal, vetted immigration, if that's the point here.
Actually, the extreme right has repeatedly done so. A number of right-wing terrorists have acted in response to the "replacement" hysteria drummed up by people like Carlson.

A video that compiles numerous instances of Fox News host Tucker Carlson pushing a racist conspiracy theory is going viral on Twitter.

Adherents of "The Great Replacement Theory" believe a conspiracy is afoot to replace white Americans with immigrants and people of color. So-called replacement theory has inspired recent violence, including the 2019 mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, and a 2018 shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh.

Ideas from the conspiracy theory reportedly filled a manifesto apparently posted online by Payton Gendron, the white 18-year-old who authorities identified as the gunman who targeted Black people in Saturday's rampage at a supermarket in Buffalo.

Once a fringe conspiracy theory pushed by white supremacists, replacement theory has seeped into the mainstream and has been promoted by some conservative politicians and commentators.

Among the loudest voices is Carlson, who has been arguing that Democrats are encouraging immigration to increase the number of "obedient" voters since joining the network's prime-time lineup in 2016.

On Sunday night, MSBC host Mehdi Hasan shared a video on Twitter that compiled several clips of Carlson promoting replacement theory.

There is a big problem with border jumping without vetting everyone first, which has been permitted for the last three years.
Actually, that's been going on since 1789. This country was founded on open borders. We didn't even have regulations until the late 1800s. The real reason we've gone decade after decade of not being shut down entirely is that our economy depends on it. Large corporations and politicians of both major parties have looked the other way because shutting it off would lead to a severe recession. And yes, that's a huge problem.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Sorry, no. Turns out that immigrants add billions annually to state economies.

Not according to the mayor.



Actually, New York provides more money to the federal government than it gets back in aid. Thought you knew.

See above.

Most of those people aren't immigrants. Most immigrants are working, paying taxes and building the economy. Did you really not know this? That's why Texas reported that their economy gains about $17 billion a year from illegal aliens.

See above.


Actually, her report had all the data documented.

Here's the "data" the article linked.




It included dissent from an racist group opposed to immigration.

I'm sure it does.


I'd be an American. Even some conservatives admit this. Ronald Reagan, for example, not only admitted it, he proclaimed it. So being a conservative is not an excuse for you to deny it. You don't like it, because it supports immigration. But it's still true.

U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, is asking the state comptroller to update a study on the fiscal impact of Texas' population of undocumented immigrants.

The request — by way of a letter sent to Comptroller Susan Combs late Tuesday — comes on the heels of an overwhelming U.S. Senate vote to invoke cloture and proceed with debate on the comprehensive immigration reform bill authored by the upper chamber’s “Gang of Eight."

The last time such a state study was performed was in 2006, by then-Comptroller Carol Keeton Strayhorn. The results showed that if the estimated 1.4 million undocumented immigrants who lived in the state in 2005 were sent home, Texas would have lost about $17.7 billion in gross domestic product that year.

The population also produced more in-state revenue that year — $1.58 billion — than the $1.16 billion it cost in state services. Local governments, however, lost about $1.44 billion in combined health care and law enforcement costs that were not reimbursed by the state, according to the study

Combs, whose duties end in January 2015, announced this month that she would not seek another term or run for another office. Her office has said over the years that it had no intention of updating the study, which was authored by a different administration. During the regular session of the 83rd Legislature, however, some bipartisan advocates for immigration reform suggested it was time to update the analysis in order to add more context to an issue deeply shrouded in emotion.

Gallego said renewing the study should be an easy enough task because the framework is in place and the data simply needs to be updated. The results could prove invaluable during the current debate, he added.


I get that you don't want to believe it. But it's a fact. Find a way to live with it.

If you think your ancient studies in any way make sense today, you're in a fantasy land.

Why is the mayor of New York begging for billions in federal aid if the migrants are a net positive?

Just make any sense of that. He has to slash public services across the board and it's not even for a lot of people. It's 100,000 illegals. 10 million have crossed the border.



I know you want to believe this. But as you have seen, that's not the way it works.

You literally confirmed that's how it works.

If they're such a boon....why are they leaving impoverished nations?



Economic activity increases GDP, which raises demand for goods and services. Do some reading in a basic economics text to find out why.

Yawn.
 
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The Barbarian

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Sorry, no. Turns out that immigrants add billions annually to state economies.

Not according to the mayor.
According to the republican comptroller of Texas. And she has the data to back it up.

Actually, New York provides more money to the federal government than it gets back in aid. They put in about $1.00 for every 74 cents they get back. Thought you knew.

See above.

Yep.

Immigrants Comprise 31 Percent of Workers in New York State Essential Businesses and 70 Percent of the State’s Undocumented Labor Force Works in Essential Businesses​


New York, like Texas, depends on the work of immigrants to maintain the state economy. The City of New York has a crisis because of all the immigrants coming in to the city. That extra 26 cents per dollar that they give to red states for welfare would go a long way to fix the problem.

See above.
Yep. As in Texas, immigrants, including illegal immigrants, are an essential part of the state economy.

Most immigrants are working, paying taxes and building the economy. Did you really not know this? That's why Texas reported that their economy gains about $17 billion a year from illegal aliens.

Ana the Ist said:

And let's be honest. If you believed that people just needed was a strong work ethic to pull yourself up by the bootstraps in this country....

I'd be an American. Even some conservatives admit this. Ronald Reagan, for example, not only admitted it, he proclaimed it. So being a conservative is not an excuse for you to deny it. You don't like it, because it supports immigration. But it's still true.

If you think your ancient studies in any way make sense today, you're in a fantasy land.
It's estimated to be a much greater benefit today. There are more workers illegally in Texas now than back then. So the numbers are bigger. This is why the extremists running the state right now, refuse to have another study done. This is why Gallago wants it done. It would reinforce the point that illegal workers are essential to the state economy.

If they're such a boon....why are they leaving impoverished nations?
For the same reason they have always come. To get jobs and take part in the American Dream. Germans, Irish, Italians, Jews, Chinese... All of them built up America with their work. Just as new immigrants today are doing. The societies from which they come, can't provide enough decent jobs. We need workers. So they come here.

Most recently, as Russia sinks into poverty and moves to become a vassal state to China/India, we are seeing an influx of educated Russian citizens who want a better life. That's how it's always gone in America.
 
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RestoreTheJoy

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Actually, the extreme right has repeatedly done so. A number of right-wing terrorists have acted in response to the "replacement" hysteria drummed up by people like Carlson.

A video that compiles numerous instances of Fox News host Tucker Carlson pushing a racist conspiracy theory is going viral on Twitter.

Adherents of "The Great Replacement Theory" believe a conspiracy is afoot to replace white Americans with immigrants and people of color. So-called replacement theory has inspired recent violence, including the 2019 mosque shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, and a 2018 shooting at a synagogue in Pittsburgh.

Ideas from the conspiracy theory reportedly filled a manifesto apparently posted online by Payton Gendron, the white 18-year-old who authorities identified as the gunman who targeted Black people in Saturday's rampage at a supermarket in Buffalo.

Once a fringe conspiracy theory pushed by white supremacists, replacement theory has seeped into the mainstream and has been promoted by some conservative politicians and commentators.

Among the loudest voices is Carlson, who has been arguing that Democrats are encouraging immigration to increase the number of "obedient" voters since joining the network's prime-time lineup in 2016.

On Sunday night, MSBC host Mehdi Hasan shared a video on Twitter that compiled several clips of Carlson promoting replacement theory.


Actually, that's been going on since 1789. This country was founded on open borders. We didn't even have regulations until the late 1800s. The real reason we've gone decade after decade of not being shut down entirely is that our economy depends on it. Large corporations and politicians of both major parties have looked the other way because shutting it off would lead to a severe recession. And yes, that's a huge problem.
Again, there is zero problem with LEGAL immigration. Here's an article from 2019, where the Trump Administration advocates it. It's kind of a mess the way it is handled, but NO ONE is advocating that legal immigration, where immigrants are vetted and have paperwork and relatives and/or jobs lined up, is a problem. That's just a falsehood you are asserting. The problem is the unprotected border and people flooding in. You can watch it on video any day. The ones who don't just slip away are being released into cities with NTAs (Notice to Appear) some day years from now. Statistically, few reappear.

Trotting out Tucker Carlson and what he may have said back when he was an opinion host is a irrelevant distraction here. Tucker Carlson, as I recall, is perfectly good with LEGAL immigration. He's not good with the criminals who are pouring over the border unvetted. Over 2 million gotaways that they know about from video since Biden abdicated his border responsibility upon taking office, after inviting people to "surge the border" during his campaign speech.

All these fringe conspiracies you are trotting out here about who said what (all of whom are no longer with their outlets, are irrevelant to the issue of legal v. illegal immigration.
 
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The Barbarian

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So if our foreign aid is contingent on the economic conditions of another country, and we do something that makes their economic conditions worse, it stands to reason they're going to need more money.

For instance, if we had an agreement where "Since you're my neighbor, I'll cover the portion of your rent you can pay"...and as it currently stands, I'm paying $200/month of your rent for you, if I do something that reduces your income by another $200, it's only a matter of time before I have to start giving you $400 instead of $200.
Which is why targeted aid that reduces crime works better. Lower crime means better conditions, more people stay in-country, and the economy does better.

Which is why corporations can't be allowed to do things that harm others, just as individuals can't be allowed to do things that harm others.

Correct, but we don't leave those kinds of situations up to the "marketplace".
A lot of it is mediated by the marketplace. But often, there are reasons why the market is being prevented from working. That's what regulation is for; a solution when the market fails.

The root of what I was suggesting is that, given that we know "more people = more pollution",
Doesn't have to be. We have more people in America than ever, but pollution has been reduced.

If I have a taxpayer shortage problem on the horizon, and convince 1 million of your people to come and live & work in my country and pay taxes into my system, that puts your country in a tough spot in which you're going to have to depend on the charity of other nations to fulfill your obligations.

In a global economy, I haven't really solved the problem, I've just transferred the worst effects of it from my country to yours in that scenario.
Yeah, China is looking at a slow-moving train wreck. Experience shows that incentives to have more children doesn't work very well. They could fix it, but it would take an overhaul of society, and the powers that be would lose a lot of power and goodies.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Sorry, no. Turns out that immigrants add billions annually to state economies.

Illegals. That's the topic.


According to the republican comptroller of Texas. And she has the data to back it up.

It would have been nice of her to provide it, but she didn't, and I'm not taking your word for it.



Actually, New York provides more money to the federal government than it gets back in aid. They put in about $1.00 for every 74 cents they get back. Thought you knew.

Not since the illegals showed up.



12 billion in aid will definitely make NYC a drain on the economy.



New York, like Texas, depends on the work of immigrants to maintain the state economy.

The exploitation. The exploitation of immigrants is what's happening.


The City of New York has a crisis because of all the immigrants coming in to the city. That extra 26 cents per dollar that they give to red states for welfare would go a long way to fix the problem.

Or we could remove the illegals, wages would increase, and less people need welfare.



Most immigrants are working, paying taxes and building the economy. Did you really not know this? That's why Texas reported that their economy gains about $17 billion a year from illegal aliens.

Illegals aren't.



I'd be an American.

You don't believe it though.


For the same reason they have always come. To get jobs and take part in the American Dream.

Or commit acts of terrorism.


Most recently, as Russia sinks into poverty and moves to become a vassal state to China/India, we are seeing an influx of educated Russian citizens who want a better life. That's how it's always gone in America.

You don't think there might be a different reason they're fleeing Russia?
 
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The Barbarian

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Illegals. That's the topic.
So, for example, Texas found that illegals were adding $17 billion to the state economy over a decade ago.
According to the republican comptroller of Texas. And she has the data to back it up.

It would have been nice of her to provide it, but she didn't, and I'm not taking your word for it.
Doesn't matter. She has way more credibility than you do. Sorry.

Actually, New York provides more money to the federal government than it gets back in aid. They put in about $1.00 for every 74 cents they get back. Thought you knew.

Not since the illegals showed up.
As you just learned, illegal aliens make up a large portion of the state's essential workers. Turns out, New York would be sending less welfare payments to red states, if the illegals weren't working.

Ana the Ist said:

And let's be honest. If you believed that people just needed was a strong work ethic to pull yourself up by the bootstraps in this country....
I'd be an American. Even some conservatives admit this. Ronald Reagan, for example, not only admitted it, he proclaimed it. So being a conservative is not an excuse for you to deny it. You don't like it, because it supports immigration. But it's still true.
You don't believe it though.

I just showed you that it's true. C'mon.

For the same reason they have always come. To get jobs and take part in the American Dream.

Or commit acts of terrorism.
Even Trump's own FBI director admitted that the real terrorist problem is home-grown right wing terrorists. We know that illegal immigrants as a group tend to be more law-abiding than native-born Americans. Want me to show you, again?

Most recently, as Russia sinks into poverty and moves to become a vassal state to China/India, we are seeing an influx of educated Russian citizens who want a better life. That's how it's always gone in America.

You don't think there might be a different reason they're fleeing Russia?
In addition to a crumbling economy, I hear the troll farms are cutting back on personnel. But of course, that wouldn't have anything to do with this conversation.
 
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USincognito

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Nobody has objected to legal, vetted immigration, if that's the point here. There is a big problem with border jumping without vetting everyone first, which has been permitted for the last three years.
Why post falsehoods like this?
 
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The Barbarian

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Why post falsehoods like this?
This is why you have to also listen to media that annoys you. Otherwise, it's easy to fall for stories like that.
 
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Laodicean60

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Turns out that immigrants add billions annually to state economies.
I'm sure there are a lot of hard-working illegals who pay taxes but there are a few that don't. When my wife worked social work for the schools here in New Mexico she provided a lot of assistance to illegals. My brother-in-law in LA told me he saw street vendors using their EBT cards to buy meat and make tacos.

The problem is not them it's our politicians who use them to divide us. Obama wanted amnesty Republicans shot it down and when Trump wanted amnesty Democrats/Republicans shot it down. This show neither wants it. Seems they only mention it when the opposing party owns Congress.
 
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