Why Japan, China, and most of the world is in big demographic trouble (but the U.S. is not)

[The Barbarian]

Most of China’s difficulties as a nation derive from overpopulation.

You're a few decades behind the curve... read the OP again.

I'm not entirely certain what they think the problem is but I'll just explain....China won't have any problems with the elderly population.

They'll die. China won't care for them. They'll just let them die hungry, cold, without power or heat, without food, or whatever.

Right now, China is actively trying to care for them. China even punishes adult children who ignore their elderly parents:

2013:
Grown children in China must visit their parents or potentially face fines or jail, a new law that came into effect on Monday says.
China's new "Elderly Rights Law" deals with the growing problem of lonely elderly people by ordering adult children to visit their ageing parents.
The law says adults should care about their parents "spiritual needs" and "never neglect or snub elderly people".

New China law says children 'must visit parents'

Grown children in China must visit their parents or potentially face fines or jail, a new law that came into effect on Monday says.

www.bbc.com

China's "one child" law means that Chinese couple wanting to produce an heir often aborted females and had males, which means that males greatly outnumber females. Which means a lot of men are not going to have wives. It's a huge demographic problem.

China Has Nearly 35 Million More Single Men Than Women​

China Has Nearly 35 Million More Single Men Than Women

The gender gap is thought to be a reflection of China's traditional preference for boys, especially during the nearly four decades of the country's "one-child policy."

www.newsweek.com

And China's youth is starting to give up on the whole society:

The rise of ‘bai lan’: why China’s frustrated youth are ready to ‘let it rot’​

Phrase bai lan gains popularity as severe competition and social expectations leave many young people despondent

The rise of ‘bai lan’: why China’s frustrated youth are ready to ‘let it rot’

Phrase bai lan gains popularity as severe competition and social expectations leave many young people despondent

www.theguardian.com

It's not as if people have rights in China.

Some things, even dictators can't make happen. Meantime, India is in relatively good shape compared to Russia and China.
Anything else?

 

[Ana the Ist]

You're a few decades behind the curve... read the OP again.


Right now, China is actively trying to care for them. China even punishes adult children who ignore their elderly parents:

2013:
Grown children in China must visit their parents or potentially face fines or jail, a new law that came into effect on Monday says.
China's new "Elderly Rights Law" deals with the growing problem of lonely elderly people by ordering adult children to visit their ageing parents.
The law says adults should care about their parents "spiritual needs" and "never neglect or snub elderly people".

New China law says children 'must visit parents'

Grown children in China must visit their parents or potentially face fines or jail, a new law that came into effect on Monday says.

www.bbc.com

China's "one child" law means that Chinese couple wanting to produce an heir often aborted females and had males, which means that males greatly outnumber females. Which means a lot of men are not going to have wives. It's a huge demographic problem.

China Has Nearly 35 Million More Single Men Than Women​

China Has Nearly 35 Million More Single Men Than Women

The gender gap is thought to be a reflection of China's traditional preference for boys, especially during the nearly four decades of the country's "one-child policy."

www.newsweek.com

Some things, even dictators can't make happen. Anything else?

Who's word are you taking on this? China’s?

Modern slavery in China | Walk Free

The 2023 Global Slavery Index country study for China.

www.walkfree.org

They use slave labor...I mean wake up man. Do you think it costs them anything to tell people to visit their parents? A lot of these people have no children or did you not read your own article?!?!

I just told you China doesn't care what happens to the elderly dying without any children to replace them....and you reply with an article saying they made a law requiring people to visit their parents lol.

Heyyyyy!!!!!

Heyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!!!!

They don't have children!!!!!

 

[Ana the Ist]

I've seen self owns on this forum before but rarely that fast.

Poster 1. China will have a problem caring for the elderly who have no children to care for them!

Poster 2. China doesn't care about the elderly. It's China.

Poster 1. Wrong! See? They passed a law requiring children to visit their parents!

Just....wow....

 

[The Barbarian]

Who's word are you taking on this? China’s?

It's a law. They passed it and published it. Kind of hard to hide that kind of thing. I've seen self owns on this forum before but rarely that fast.

They use slave labor...I mean wake up man.

So did some people in the United States about 170 years ago. You think that means no one took care of aged parents? Seriously?

Do you think it costs them anything to tell people to visit their parents?

Costs people, I suppose.

A lot of these people have no children or did you not read your own article?!?!

Old people had children. Their children aren't having children. Think. Many old people predate the People's Republic. Might be different in Russia, but the demographic problem is the same, isn't it?

 

[Ana the Ist]

It's a law. They passed it and published it. Kind of hard to hide that kind of thing. I've seen self owns on this forum before but rarely that fast.

Why? Why would it be hard for them to hide that? Do you have someone inside China confirming it for you? Do they have freedom of the press suddenly?

I understand that you're completely oblivious to Chinese propaganda but it doesn't really matter. If people don't have children to take care of them (and that's the "problem" you're claiming they have) then who is this law supposed to affect when all these old Chinese people are neglected by state?

They don't have children.

Might be different in Russia, but the demographic problem is the same, isn't it?

You've failed to describe a problem...and proved my point by citing a law that requires children to visit parents.

China doesn't care about the elderly dying without any children to look after them.

 

[Ana the Ist]

I don't know any other way to explain this simpler....

1. You cited an article claiming China will face a crisis of elderly people without children to care for them...creating a massive burden on the state.


2. Then you cited a law, saying Chinese children will be thrown into labor camps or jail or whatever lol if they don't visit and care for their parents...to prove China does care about the elderly lol.

So what is the problem China is facing @The Barbarian ? It seems like #2 either solves #1....or it punts all responsibility for the welfare of these aging Chinese onto their lack of children and not the state of China.

 

[The Barbarian]

Why? Why would it be hard for them to hide that?

Laws get published and promulgated as this one was. Why would they even want to hide it? I understand that you're completely oblivious to facts, but it doesn't really matter. Reality doen't care if you approve or not.

If people don't have children to take care of them

But old people in China do have children. They were in their reproductive years long before there were any laws restricting number of children at all. How would you not realize this?

then who is this law supposed to affect when all these old Chinese people are neglected by state?

Actually, no elderly person is pauperized by medical bills in China. They have a much higher standard of living than they had as children. Think.

They don't have children.

Of course they do. When they were of reproductive age, China had a problem with the population growing too fast. Did you really not know that?

You've failed to describe a problem.

From the OP:

The U.S. has been spared a similar fate than China—all thanks to immigration. The more than 1 million immigrants who come to the U.S. every year are a key underwriter of U.S. national power, leaving aside the thorny domestic politics around immigration policy.

Like the U.S., mass immigration is the only plausible short-term fix for China’s population crisis. But China under Xi has no interest in a Western-style melting pot—like elsewhere in Asia including Japan—that brings in millions of immigrants. He has spent years promoting a Han Chinese national identity.

Huge problem for China. Russia's problem as you probably know is comparable, aggravated by the flight of productive young men to avoid the meat grinder in Ukraine.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Laws get published and promulgated as this one was.

Promulgated by who?

China?

But old people in China do have children.

Then I guess your OP is wrong and the elderly will be taken care of by their children, as your law says lol.

Feel free to explain what the problem is....I already told you it doesn't exist.

 

[The Barbarian]

Laws get published and promulgated as this one was.

Promulgated by who?

In this case, the government of China. If they pass a law, they want people to know about it, so they can comply.

But old people in China do have children.

Then I guess your OP is wrong

Nope. Take a moment to think about it before going on. I bet you could figure it out, if you thought about it a bit.

the elderly will be taken care of by their children, as your law says lol.

Why do you think there are laws? Bet you can figure that one out, too. Hint: apparently Chinese working adults don't seem to be very willing to help their parents. Might be state socialism does that, if there's no democratic rule involved.

And here's the reason. The aged in China today were reproductive before "one child" decrees. Succeeding generations were not. Are you starting to realize what's going to happen? If you still don't get it, maybe you should do some reading on demographics in affluent societies first.

Thanks for the questions. If you don't get it, some others might not get it either. I think the article is reasonably non-technical if you take your time. Give it a shot.

 

[mindlight]

That's what demographic winter looks like. Made all the worse by sex selection abortion favoring killing off females. So the female population capable of having babies is reduced well beyond what the general numbers would tell you. And then lots of these women don't even want children.

Will Chinese president XI have to FORCE women to have six children? He might do that, as he has forced abortion to prevent a second child. Dictators dictate. Policy comes and goes.

The consequences of China's one-baby policy are coming home to roost but this is a global problem.

Regarding Western dominance, the key issues are dysgenic fertility and migration. Europe and North America both have low fertility, especially among well-educated and successful women. The culture is now, that dumb women breed and smart ones die childless. From a geopolitical perspective, this is a disaster for the demographic stability and relative power/prosperity future of Western countries. Also, economic migration into Europe is disproportionately from those who do not make it in their societies. It can take several generations until these migrants rise to Western standards regarding education and work productivity. So basically the West is becoming dumber at a time when China's prosperity and rising educational standards are raising the quality of their population. Due to better diet for instance Chinese IQ scores have jumped considerably in the last two decades.

Free cultures are a better basis for innovation and the semi-conductor industry is a perfect example of that. Despite all its efforts China has not been able to establish preeminence in this area and the main companies in the industry are still in Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and to a lesser extent Europe (Dutch lithographical machines) and the USA.

Totalitarian cultures are theoretically better at selective breeding. Germany's average IQ in 1980 was 9 points above the global average in part to do with the extermination of idiots by the Nazis. After extensive immigration, this has now shrunk to normal levels. A free society cannot condone such activity as sterilization and genocide but China is not such a society. How it could force successful young professional women to have babies while preventing rural peasants from having them remains to be seen, but this is the sort of thing that totalitarian societies can attempt.

On current trends, China will get smarter, and may well resolve its demographic problems with serious human rights abuses while the West grows dumber and more decadent. It is hard to see a way forward here that deals with the essential problems.

 

[mindlight]

I think the problem is multi-faceted, and that people are looking at it from some very counter-productive angles.

From the climate perspective, the consensus is that "more people = more emissions"

The Connections Between Population and Climate Change

Climate change is one of humanity’s most critical challenges. Let's explore the links between population growth and climate change.

populationconnection.org

Population growth has been a factor in the degradation of the environment but in a properly managed society does not have to be. A demographically stable population is the ideal.

Germany is making a concerted effort to switch to renewable energies and away from a dependence on Russian gas and Arab oil. Its population is rising due to migration while CO2 emissions decline. But to a considerable extent its key industries, as in much of the Western world, have yet to make the transition. We need cheap alternatives to fossil fuels in heavy industry, automobile and long-haul transport as well as in electricity production.

 

[mindlight]

Or he could just have an open society based on the idea that immigration, hard work, and freedom will provide prosperity...

Naaahhh....

He has spent years promoting a Han Chinese national identity.

Tucker Carlson would call them "heritage Chinese." This is why American grows and gets stronger. Waves of immigration made us a better nation. "A shining city on a hill" as Reagan put it. Not that it's always been that. But millions of immigrants believed in America and came here to take part in it. Turns out, it works pretty well, in spite of what racists are screaming.

In the long run, migration leads to a more prosperous society but in Europe, many of these migrants come from completely dysfunctional societies and bring with them false religions and traditions that handicap them moving forward.

 

[mindlight]

Turns out, malignant nationalism and collectivism (with the attendant cultural chauvinism) is weaker than open societies.

Yep. Even with a more affluent economy and prosperity, people find China an unsatisfactory place to move. And yes, China isn't exactly welcoming.

No one wants to move to China, except to make money on some business project and then come home. Also, the Chinese model is less innovative and productive than the Western one of a free society. Even within China Hong Kong prospers due to better freedoms now being eroded. But maybe the Chinese can take the kind of extreme measures to solve demographic problems that Western societies cannot. It remains to be seen.

 

[mindlight]

Most of China’s difficulties as a nation derive from overpopulation.

I'm not entirely certain what they think the problem is but I'll just explain....China won't have any problems with the elderly population.

They'll die. China won't care for them. They'll just let them die hungry, cold, without power or heat, without food, or whatever.

It's not as if people have rights in China.

Anything else?

China is in effect two countries. The Middle-income East Coast is closer to Western standards of living and the rural peasants represent a more backward nation. China has a shortage of skilled workers in key sectors while enjoying an overpopulation of inefficient agrarian workers. Its essential problem is one of modernization and it is a project that will take generations. The world does not have enough resources to fuel a fully modernized China on the current model.

The Silk Roads project and a blue water navy capable of projecting Chinese power around the world is one answer to this to collect the world's resources in the service of China. But reform, renewable energies, and major societal engineering are the more 'productive' avenues. China has a totalitarian government and I would expect human rights abuses to rise considerably in future years as it handles its demographic, resource, and innovation issues moving forward.

Forcing clever women to breed and stopping dumb ones from doing so is something only a totalitarian society can do.

 

[The Barbarian]

Forcing clever women to breed and stopping dumb ones from doing so is something only a totalitarian society can do.

Even if they could, it would be a waste of effort. Darwinian biologists like Reginald Punnett long ago debunked the entire idea of eugenic improvement. It would take centuries to eliminate harmful recessives, even if there was a way to identify all of them. Pleiotropy (one gene doing a number of different things) and epistasis (one gene affecting the activity of another) make this a really challenging problem. It may be a very, very long time before we can rationally mess with our population genome. Animal breeders use Darwinian methods to improve a breed; breed many, remove most of them. Not something even a totalitarian state would be likely to get away with doing.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Even if they could, it would be a waste of effort. Darwinian biologists like Reginald Punnett long ago debunked the entire idea of eugenic improvement. It would take centuries to eliminate harmful recessives, even if there was a way to identify all of them. Pleiotropy (one gene doing a number of different things) and epistasis (one gene affecting the activity of another) make this a really challenging problem. It may be a very, very long time before we can rationally mess with our population genome. Animal breeders use Darwinian methods to improve a breed; breed many, remove most of them. Not something even a totalitarian state would be likely to get away with doing.

KHAN!!!!!!!!!

 

[The Barbarian]

Totalitarian cultures are theoretically better at selective breeding. Germany's average IQ in 1980 was 9 points above the global average in part to do with the extermination of idiots by the Nazis.

Did them little good. Mentally defective people are rarely doing productive work. Trimming the bottom will not increase the top. Fact is, the Flynn effect significantly increased IQ in the last century or so, in almost all nations. It's slowing now, and whatever caused it (certainly not Darwinian processes) seems to have run its course.

It's a big enough boost that Americans are so much higher in IQ than American in the late 1800s that most of the 1800s Americans would have been rated as being of low intelligence.

IQ isn't the whole story, of course, but we aren't getting dumber.

In the long run, migration leads to a more prosperous society but in Europe, many of these migrants come from completely dysfunctional societies and bring with them false religions and traditions that handicap them moving forward.

The same objections were made about the Irish and Italians and Jews. And you know how that turned out.

Darwin pointed out that even "savages" brought to England would be, in a few generations, just like Englishmen. He was correct. Hitler mocked the "mongrel American nation", but he had no idea what the confluence of cultures and ideas do for a society. America is far from the first group of disparate refugees and immigrants to form a strong and prosperous society.

It's a common theme in world history.

 

[The Barbarian]

KHAN!!!!!!!!!

?

 

[Ana the Ist]

The same objections were made about the Irish and Italians and Jews. And you know how that turned out.

Darwin pointed out that even "savages" brought to England would be, in a few generations, just like Englishmen. He was correct. Hitler mocked the "mongrel American nation", but he had no idea what the confluence of cultures and ideas do for a society. America is far from the first group of disparate refugees and immigrants to form a strong and prosperous society.

It's a common theme in world history.

That's funny...

The "confluence of cultures and ideas"....


Well those early immigrants to the US largely dropped their cultures and accepted western liberal democratic ideas. They tried hard to assimilate. They weren't given handouts.

For some reason, the modern left decided that isn't so necessary...and now it's primarily embroiled in tribalistic identity politics.

 

[The Barbarian]

Well those early immigrants to the US largely dropped their cultures and accepted western liberal democratic ideas.

If you ever came to America and visited New York, Boston, or Philadelphia, you'd get a huge surprise.

They weren't given handouts.

Apparently, you're not familiar with the way that worked. Immigrants tended to initially congregate in communities together, helping hew arrivals to assimilate. They often had their own churches, schools, even businesses.

That hasn't changed a lot. It still happens that way.

For some reason, the modern left decided that isn't so necessary...and now it's primarily embroiled in tribalistic identity politics.

I don't think these are leftists...