Why Covid19 justifies such dramatic measures

[dogs4thewin]

This virus might become endemic to the human population (like other coronaviruses and influenza). In which case it may not actually stop, it would just continue to recur like other viruses do.

Yes, I know but you still can only catch a particular strain one time.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Right!

If you only want to know whether the U.S. will survive this pandemic, then the answer is yes. The open question is only what level of early deaths we will see. It seems it could be possible to keep the deaths down, with strong measures -- instead of us all discussing later whether a million will die, we might be able to discuss a far lower number. ...maybe...

Well, right now the number is real low little less than 5,000 around the world.

 

[essentialsaltes]

There's an old old puzzle that comes to mind that demonstrates how exponential growth sneaks up on you.

 

[Silmarien]

but what I am saying is either way it will stop. Either because we slow the spread fewer people get it and more that do live or we just let it happen and live or die people will only get it one time.

There was evidence in China of people getting reinfected with it, so this is not necessarily true. The problem is that we still don't really know enough about the virus to have a great idea of what's going on. It will peak and then die out, though, yes.

 

[Halbhh]

Bit of an understatement there. They took incredibly extensive measures, mobilizing their country in a way that the US cannot hope to do. A better example is S. Korea, which seems to be slowly bringing their outbreak under control with a somewhat less stringent approach. Still probably more than the US can manage. It would be nice if we had some effective national leadership during this crisis.

Yeah, I'm also interested in learning more on South Korean measures. The link in the OP about that was the first article I'm reading that is more than only a mention.

 

[Halbhh]

There was evidence in China of people getting reinfected with it, so this is not necessarily true. The problem is that we still don't really know enough about the virus to have a great idea of what's going on. It will peak and then die out, though, yes.

Interesting. Well, that brings to mind that it mutates as it goes along also. That's another thing to look to learn more about.

 

[dogs4thewin]

@Silmarien pointed to a key thing there. To slow it was down and thus to avoid too-many-cases at once will help to have a lower death rate.

How? If hospitals become overflowing, more will try to ride it out on their own at home.

That points to another possible measure if needed: temporary field hospitals.

but again one way or another you can only get this strain one time, so if you have a mild case it is probably best to ride it out, so that serious cases can take the beds. Again, wheather a person lives or dies one way or the other you will get this particular strain ONE time.

 

[JackRT]

It would be nice if we had some effective national leadership during this crisis.

Good luck with that.

 

[dogs4thewin]

There was evidence in China of people getting reinfected with it, so this is not necessarily true. The problem is that we still don't really know enough about the virus to have a great idea of what's going on. It will peak and then die out, though, yes.

Once you get a particular strain of a virus you have immunity to it, so same way you can catch several colds a year because there are many strains. From what I read ( that and the end of the first world war is what ended the Spanish flu, because once someone had had it his or her body had immunity, so could not get that particular virus a second time.

 

[Silmarien]

Once you get a particular strain of a virus you have immunity to it, so same way you can catch several colds a year because there are many strains. From what I read ( that and the end of the first world war is what ended the Spanish flu, because once someone had had it his or her body had immunity, so could not get that particular virus a second time.

We do not know why people who had the virus and then tested negative, in some cases started testing positive again afterwards. It could be testing error, it could be reinfection, it could be relapse. We just don't know what's going on yet.

but again one way or another you can only get this strain one time, so if you have a mild case it is probably best to ride it out, so that serious cases can take the beds. Again, wheather a person lives or dies one way or the other you will get this particular strain ONE time.

If you just have a mild case, you will be quarantined at home, not in the hospital. (Assuming you even know that you have a mild case, which in this country is basically impossible because you can't get tested unless you have serious symptoms or are in direct contact with someone who has it. We literally have no idea who just has a cold and who has a mild case of the coronavirus right now.)

 

[dogs4thewin]

We do not know why people who had the virus and then tested negative, in some cases started testing positive again afterwards. It could be testing error, it could be reinfection, it could be relapse. We just don't know what's going on yet.



If you just have a mild case, you will be quarantined at home, not in the hospital. (Assuming you even know that you have a mild case, which in this country is basically impossible because you can't get tested unless you have serious symptoms or are in direct contact with someone who has it. We literally have no idea who just has a cold and who has a mild case of the coronavirus right now.)

but sense the vest majority of cases are mild ( like the cold) people do not just not go about their daily activities evry time they get a cold, so if we tested everyone that would be an awful lot of tests and fill the ER like no body's business.

 

[Desk trauma]

but sense the vest majority of cases are mild ( like the cold) people do not just not go about their daily activities evry time they get a cold, so if we tested everyone that would be an awful lot of tests and fill the ER like no body's business.

South Korea is providing a very good example of how we could handle testing, if we actually had tests to use which we do not.

 

[bmjackson]

British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston

 

[Silmarien]

but sense the vest majority of cases are mild ( like the cold) people do not just not go about their daily activities evry time they get a cold, so if we tested everyone that would be an awful lot of tests and fill the ER like no body's business.

Except that a mild case of coronavirus is not the same thing as a cold. One problem is that this thing is unpredictable, so a mild case can change into a serious and then critical case with little warning if it moves into your lungs. The other problem is that even if your case is not serious, you could pass it on to someone who is vulnerable and kill them. That doesn't happen with a normal cold.

I've had a cold for the past week. At one point it involved a relatively high fever, which is not normal. I was commuting into NYC at the time, and the fact that we basically have no idea how bad the situation in the city is right now is pretty chilling. I probably don't have it, but I have no way to find out for sure, which is really not fun. We need full testing just to know who should and shouldn't be quarantined, since right now if you're actually in an outbreak hot zone, anytime anyone sneezes, people start panicking. I'm staying home sick until we at least know what's going on, since the alternative is effectively psychological warfare. I do not do this for normal colds.

 

[Halbhh]

Except that a mild case of coronavirus is not the same thing as a cold. One problem is that this thing is unpredictable, so a mild case can change into a serious and then critical case with little warning if it moves into your lungs. The other problem is that even if your case is not serious, you could pass it on to someone who is vulnerable and kill them. That doesn't happen with a normal cold.

I've had a cold for the past week. At one point it involved a relatively high fever, which is not normal. I was commuting into NYC at the time, and the fact that we basically have no idea how bad the situation in the city is right now is pretty chilling. I probably don't have it, but I have no way to find out for sure, which is really not fun. We need full testing just to know who should and shouldn't be quarantined, since right now if you're actually in an outbreak hot zone, anytime anyone sneezes, people start panicking. I'm staying home sick until we at least know what's going on, since the alternative is effectively psychological warfare. I do not do this for normal colds.

Right, could be/been 2 bugs, possibly. (past tense tho would be assuming you are feeling better, fever is gone on its own (without continuing suppression by over the counter medicine), and such). If you are not feeling a lot better without medicines tho, the high fever would be a reason to have it checked on.

 

[Sparagmos]

but sense the vest majority of cases are mild ( like the cold) people do not just not go about their daily activities evry time they get a cold, so if we tested everyone that would be an awful lot of tests and fill the ER like no body's business.

The testing wouldn’t be done in the ER. You could do the testing anywhere. S. Korea did that and that is why they are able to contain the virus. I think they had drive through testing!

 

[Halbhh]

The testing wouldn’t be done in the ER. You could do the testing anywhere. S. Korea did that and that is why they are able to contain the virus. I think they had drive through testing!

Yes, there is an interesting (and short) article linked in the OP about South Korea, which does indeed have a lot of drive through testing, and 3 other regional nations.

 

[Halbhh]

There's an old old puzzle that comes to mind that demonstrates how exponential growth sneaks up on you.

At first I wanted to ask how many pads already at the end of day 1, which is irrelevant. When you write or visualize the equation 2^n = 1/2 * 2^30, then you get it instantly. this could be helpful to some if you'd also illustrate further down in the post for them a table of pads each day in the month.... or better really would be a table for Corona Virus, wouldn't it...

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

because they really do not want to have to do it the other way where millions or billions get it and you either live or die, but either way will only get it ONE time.

and look at the reports - WHO is at risk if they get the flu? WHO is at risk if they get the virus ? Most healthy people of every age group are 'safe' - it is the old and weak, the already sick with something/ or depressed immune strength who might have trouble recovering, if they don't do helpful things to overcome the flue (oops) or the virus(es) ....

 

[Silmarien]

Right, could be/been 2 bugs, possibly. (past tense tho would be assuming you are feeling better, fever is gone on its own (without continuing suppression by over the counter medicine), and such). If you are not feeling a lot better without medicines tho, the high fever would be a reason to have it checked on.

Oh, the cold seems to be lingering on forever, but the fever showed up at the very beginning and then disappeared. I think it's only a real concern if you have it for 72 hours, but information on this thing is all over the place. It's only lower respiratory, but some sources say it's primarily upper respiratory except for the critical cases. Sore throats are either not a symptom at all or a major symptom. It's either relatively rare and you're unlikely to run into it, or there are thousands of undiagnosed cases and it's all over the subways.

I would be nervous about going to a doctor for anything right now, though, much less to try to get a test that's not available, since that would just increase your chances of running into it.