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Such as the NBA suspending its season, or cancellations of all public events with crowds above 100 or even all public events period like Italy.
Is it an overreaction?
Here's why the measures are so drastic, in a nutshell.
A realistic possibility based on quality information shows without strong measures to slow down and greatly reduce the spread of Covid19, it could kill big numbers like 700,000 (* see calculation below) in the U.S. over time.
Of course, we will be doing a lot to try to prevent that, and therefore it's an unlikely outcome. Because we will take serious measures to try to prevent that.
A number of deaths like 700,000 (or higher) is illustrative of the level of what the potential is (not merely 50,000 but an order of magnitude more), and that's what we should work to prevent and reduce by the extent of our measures.
Like the above ending of mass gatherings, but also we can expect plenty of school closures and also other measures, including the very helpful widespread testing of people that even just might have come in contact.
Hopefully we will do the strong measure South Korea has done of massive drive-through testing, which has helped South Korea hold down transmission by detecting transmission better (and how people then isolate after being positive for the virus).
(here's an article on how South Korea has worked differently than Italy:
Mass testing, alerts and big fines: the strategies used in Asia to slow coronavirus
South Korea’s government opted against localised lockdowns, concentrating instead on testing large numbers of people in an attempt to identify infection “hotspots”, along with encouraging social distancing. As one of three designated “special care zones”, Daegu received extra medical supplies and staff, and troops were sent to disinfect the streets.)
--------------------------------
* Here's how the number 700,000 was calculated:
Over time a virus that spreads so easily and quickly would spread to a large portion of the population anywhere -- biostatisticians say 30-60% of entire populations(!)
“People in my field have been saying for well over a month that 30 to 60 percent of the world’s population will get infected,” said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a biostatistician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.
But she and other experts said that Ms. Merkel’s estimates were most likely at the high end of the range. The real infection rate will depend on whether measures like social distancing and quarantines reduce the spread of the virus, they said.
Merkel Gives Germans a Hard Truth About the Coronavirus
The rate at which Covid19 can spread is fairly fast:
"People who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection, according to a new study from Germany that helps to explain the rapid and efficient way in which the virus has spread around the world. ...
"Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain. The scientists said at peak shedding, people with Covid-19 are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of SARS infection, a fact that likely explains the rapid spread of the virus.
-- People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery
COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.
Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses
The death rate depends on the average age of a population (and what portion of transmissions are even detected):
Outside of mainland China, Italy now has the highest number of deaths in the world from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 5% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization.
The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy? | Live Science
But in the far more widespread detection case of South Korea, the death rate is much lower:
This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.
https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html
Note that South Korea has a lower average age than Italy --
"The median age in South Korea is approximately 41.8 years of age."
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/south-korea-population/
So.... Let's look at that more optimistic lower range like 0.5-0.6% by taking account of the relatively younger age average in the U.S. population.
For the U.S., we could look at a potential death rate near to 0.5%-0.6%, and if we didn't powerfully slow down the spread the virus could get to 30-60% of the population. Since the U.S. has a population of 327 million, the math says at for instance a ~40% spread level a potential numbers of deaths in a range like 650,000-750,000 for instance. Of course a higher than 40% or lower than 40% spread would proportionally change this range.
That's an example of what could happen without measures like we will likely do to prevent that free spread.
Is it an overreaction?
Here's why the measures are so drastic, in a nutshell.
A realistic possibility based on quality information shows without strong measures to slow down and greatly reduce the spread of Covid19, it could kill big numbers like 700,000 (* see calculation below) in the U.S. over time.
Of course, we will be doing a lot to try to prevent that, and therefore it's an unlikely outcome. Because we will take serious measures to try to prevent that.
A number of deaths like 700,000 (or higher) is illustrative of the level of what the potential is (not merely 50,000 but an order of magnitude more), and that's what we should work to prevent and reduce by the extent of our measures.
Like the above ending of mass gatherings, but also we can expect plenty of school closures and also other measures, including the very helpful widespread testing of people that even just might have come in contact.
Hopefully we will do the strong measure South Korea has done of massive drive-through testing, which has helped South Korea hold down transmission by detecting transmission better (and how people then isolate after being positive for the virus).
(here's an article on how South Korea has worked differently than Italy:
Mass testing, alerts and big fines: the strategies used in Asia to slow coronavirus
South Korea’s government opted against localised lockdowns, concentrating instead on testing large numbers of people in an attempt to identify infection “hotspots”, along with encouraging social distancing. As one of three designated “special care zones”, Daegu received extra medical supplies and staff, and troops were sent to disinfect the streets.)
--------------------------------
* Here's how the number 700,000 was calculated:
Over time a virus that spreads so easily and quickly would spread to a large portion of the population anywhere -- biostatisticians say 30-60% of entire populations(!)
“People in my field have been saying for well over a month that 30 to 60 percent of the world’s population will get infected,” said Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a biostatistician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.
But she and other experts said that Ms. Merkel’s estimates were most likely at the high end of the range. The real infection rate will depend on whether measures like social distancing and quarantines reduce the spread of the virus, they said.
Merkel Gives Germans a Hard Truth About the Coronavirus
The rate at which Covid19 can spread is fairly fast:
"People who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection, according to a new study from Germany that helps to explain the rapid and efficient way in which the virus has spread around the world. ...
"Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain. The scientists said at peak shedding, people with Covid-19 are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of SARS infection, a fact that likely explains the rapid spread of the virus.
-- People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery
COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.
Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses
The death rate depends on the average age of a population (and what portion of transmissions are even detected):
Outside of mainland China, Italy now has the highest number of deaths in the world from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. And the country's fatality rate from COVID-19 — at 5% — is much higher than the global average of 3.4%, according to the World Health Organization.
The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.
Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy? | Live Science
But in the far more widespread detection case of South Korea, the death rate is much lower:
This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.
https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html
Note that South Korea has a lower average age than Italy --
"The median age in South Korea is approximately 41.8 years of age."
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/south-korea-population/
So.... Let's look at that more optimistic lower range like 0.5-0.6% by taking account of the relatively younger age average in the U.S. population.
For the U.S., we could look at a potential death rate near to 0.5%-0.6%, and if we didn't powerfully slow down the spread the virus could get to 30-60% of the population. Since the U.S. has a population of 327 million, the math says at for instance a ~40% spread level a potential numbers of deaths in a range like 650,000-750,000 for instance. Of course a higher than 40% or lower than 40% spread would proportionally change this range.
That's an example of what could happen without measures like we will likely do to prevent that free spread.
