What Inflation?....

[Halbhh]

The title What Inflation... is taken from an interesting article (further below) about how some families deal with inflation with clever strategies to lessen the impact of inflation on their households.

The article is near the end of this post, and an excerpt is in post #2 of this thread.

But first I want to lay out something interesting: a lot of prices are falling right now here where I live in the last couple of weeks.

The official governmental monthly Inflation report we see once a month (and is in headlines once a month) is a lagging indicator, meaning it tells us about what happened in the past.

Specifically, in the 12 months through to the end of that previous month.

Here in August, something interesting will be happening....

Right now prices are falling at the gas pump and even some prices inside the grocery store on some things -- which I find shows up as a special sales tag, a lot like this random example of one:

(photo from Is this the future of retail? We checked out the new high-tech store from Microsoft and Kroger)

So, that's how many will first see the falling prices -- more things on sale at a discount.

While you could always find some things on sale, I think we will be seeing more things on sale in August and September than we could find in June or July....

But the headline number that comes out once per month == July 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on August 10, 2022, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time == will continue to show the 12 month inflation through the end of July as a positive number of course....

So, we will hear something like maybe "Inflation still is high in July" even when prices were falling in reality....

Now, don't expect a huge drop on most things, or for gas to always go down (it would more likely to have some zig zag over time, up and down). And the U.S. is like a supertanker -- it has a lot of inertia, and it takes time for a trend to build up. It could be months before you see many lower prices. (depending on how you shop...)

Ok, an article that I think is actually fun to look at though is how to deal with the still high prices right now:

Want to end inflation in your own purchases a bit sooner?

What Inflation? The Super Frugal Say They Were Made for This Moment

 

[Halbhh]

From left: Grace, 7, Mary, 9, and Daniel, 3, doing chores at the Shillitos' home in Burnt Hills, N.Y. The family has a flock of 38 chickens.

A quote from the article:

Extremely frugal families are coping with record-high inflation by doing what they’ve always done: not spending money.

“It doesn’t affect us as much because of the way we shop,” says Art Shillito, who along with his wife, Janelle, forgo shopping lists and mostly buy marked-down items. The Burnt Hills, N.Y., couple say they’ve spent an average $364.74 a month this year to feed their family of 11, which is below last year’s monthly average of $500.

With high inflation costing many Americans more, a small but enthusiastic group of already-super-frugal people are taking their saving strategies further. Some of their tactics: checking wholesalers for sharply reduced “distressed” foods with damaged packaging; designating no-spend months when they abstain from buying nonessentials; and auditing one or two categories of spending to see where they can shave costs.

Extreme money-saving measures are gaining interest as more than 80% of American consumers say they plan to cut back spending by buying cheaper or fewer products...
(continues)
What Inflation? The Super Frugal Say They Were Made for This Moment

 

[BPPLEE]

From left: Grace, 7, Mary, 9, and Daniel, 3, doing chores at the Shillitos' home in Burnt Hills, N.Y. The family has a flock of 38 chickens.

A quote from the article:

Extremely frugal families are coping with record-high inflation by doing what they’ve always done: not spending money.

“It doesn’t affect us as much because of the way we shop,” says Art Shillito, who along with his wife, Janelle, forgo shopping lists and mostly buy marked-down items. The Burnt Hills, N.Y., couple say they’ve spent an average $364.74 a month this year to feed their family of 11, which is below last year’s monthly average of $500.

With high inflation costing many Americans more, a small but enthusiastic group of already-super-frugal people are taking their saving strategies further. Some of their tactics: checking wholesalers for sharply reduced “distressed” foods with damaged packaging; designating no-spend months when they abstain from buying nonessentials; and auditing one or two categories of spending to see where they can shave costs.

Extreme money-saving measures are gaining interest as more than 80% of American consumers say they plan to cut back spending by buying cheaper or fewer products...
(continues)
What Inflation? The Super Frugal Say They Were Made for This Moment

I think this is what the Democrats should run on! Things aren't so bad if you'll just wait for sales, buy marked down items, get clothes at Goodwill, grow your own food and ride a bicycle to work. Don't forget coupons!

 

[Nithavela]

I've read that resource prices like wood, copper, oil and component prices like microchips are crashing right now.

 

[d taylor]

-​

I know this i was in walmart last week around 2:30 p.m. and there was practically no one there. i did not have to wait in the checkout line, but just two ahead of me.

I my town that is unheard of

 

[Halbhh]

Wow, just heard July U.S. added 525,000 more jobs, and unemployment rate down to 3.5%....

That's hot.

Maybe inflation won't go down fast?

 

[BPPLEE]

I've read that resource prices like wood, copper, oil and component prices like microchips are crashing right now.

They would have to crash just to get back to normal 10 Inflation Price Hikes Raising the Cost of 2022 Home Projects - Bob Vila.

 

[Nithavela]

They would have to crash just to get back to normal 10 Inflation Price Hikes Raising the Cost of 2022 Home Projects - Bob Vila.

That would be the case, yes.

Lumber - 2022 Data - 1978-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart
Steel - 2022 Data - 2016-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart
Wheat - 2022 Data - 1977-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart

Everything about back to pre-war levels.

 

[QvQ]

I shop for groceries once a month. I buy basically the same items every month. My bill was always between $150 -$200. Then it want up to $300 -$350.
I went to the store a few days ago. $458. And no coffee, no canned apricots. It was a 10% discount day and many sales on meat and other items.

 

[dqhall]

The price of real estate in Florida went up so fast, it is frightening. My dream of moving to a better neighborhood was crushed. In 2012 home prices were much lower. There are more active home listings than at the beginning of the year, but prices do not seem to be heading down much. There are supply chain disruptions and skilled labor shortages. Wages are rising in the mid single digits. There is a chip shortage. The car lots do not have many new cars yet. CPI inflation is the highest it has been in almost 40 years. Interest rates have risen. Mortgage rates are higher than this time last year.

 

[Halbhh]

I shop for groceries once a month. I buy basically the same items every month. My bill was always between $150 -$200. Then it want up to $300 -$350.
I went to the store a few days ago. $458. And no coffee, no canned apricots. It was a 10% discount day and many sales on meat and other items.

It seems from that unusually intense inflation in how you personally buy, as you stated yours numbers, which if you typed correctly is an increase over 100% (our own food inflation in buying our own same as usually purchased items without using the strategies above in the article above, so without special sales, etc., is probably about 10-12% roughly).

From that huge difference, it seems then that the strategies in the article (at bottom of OP) might be even more useful for you.

 

[Halbhh]

The price of real estate in Florida went up so fast, it is frightening. My dream of moving to a better neighborhood was crushed. In 2012 home prices were much lower. There are more active home listings than at the beginning of the year, but prices do not seem to be heading down much. There are supply chain disruptions and skilled labor shortages. Wages are rising in the mid single digits. There is a chip shortage. The car lots do not have many new cars yet. CPI inflation is the highest it has been in almost 40 years. Interest rates have risen. Mortgage rates are higher than this time last year.

Yes, home building fell a lot in 2020-2021, but of course the natural demand for houses building up over those years didn't fall a lot, so there is a housing shortage.

 

[QvQ]

From that huge difference, it seems then that the strategies in the article (at bottom of OP) might be even more useful for you.

I already practice all those strategies. Feeding two people for a month for $150 during previous administrations is not filet mignon or shrimp salad.
I was shocked.
I talked to my brother in another State. He claims he was spending about $30 a week on a selection of "what he buys all the time," staples not counting his frozen dinners. That went up to $50 to $60 then lately it has been $100 - $120. That is $400 a month up from $120, the same increase as in my area.
There were a few cans of the generic, low grade coffee at twice the price of the regular coffee we usually buy. There were a few cans but no selection. Just the generic brand for twice the price of name brands.
There hasn't been any canned apricots for almost a year. There were a few cans a few months ago that were $2.50 a can. We usually paid $1.29.

 

[trophy33]

I already practice all those strategies. Feeding two people for a month for $150 during previous administrations is not filet mignon or shrimp salad.
I was shocked.
I talked to my brother in another State. He claims he was spending about $30 a week on a selection of "what he buys all the time," staples not counting his frozen dinners. That went up to $50 to $60 then lately it has been $100 - $120. That is $400 a month up from $120, the same increase as in my area.
There were a few cans of the generic, low grade coffee at twice the price of the regular coffee we usually buy. There were a few cans but no selection. Just the generic brand for twice the price of name brands.
There haven't been any canned apricots for almost a year. There were a few cans a few months ago that were $2.50 a can. We usually paid $1.29.

I had no idea that the food in the USA is so cheap. It costs significantly more, here, even though you have 3x higher wages.

 

[Halbhh]

I already practice all those strategies. Feeding two people for a month for $150 during previous administrations is not filet mignon or shrimp salad.
I was shocked.
I talked to my brother in another State. He claims he was spending about $30 a week on a selection of "what he buys all the time," staples not counting his frozen dinners. That went up to $50 to $60 then lately it has been $100 - $120. That is $400 a month up from $120, the same increase as in my area.
There were a few cans of the generic, low grade coffee at twice the price of the regular coffee we usually buy. There were a few cans but no selection. Just the generic brand for twice the price of name brands.
There haven't been any canned apricots for almost a year. There were a few cans a few months ago that were $2.50 a can. We usually paid $1.29.

We pay $6 for 2 dozen organic eggs where we used to pay $5. That's typical. Many items that we paid about $6-$8 for are now often about $1 more.

Of course, a $1 increase on a $6 item is a lot, about 17%, but that's much much less than the 100% or more you are claiming, so now I want to know the precise item and the precise price, and what store, because it seems impossible to believe your claim of 100%, in view of how much of what we would need if we do as you just claimed -- you said: "I already practice all those strategies." -- so that would mean you are buying basic items, just like in the linked article, if you are telling the truth....

See the problem?

So, I beginning to wonder whether you are honest here.

Now, if you only buy for instance Ukrainian or Russian branded items, it would be possible perhaps. Is that what you buy?

 

[QvQ]

I had not idea that the food in the USA is so cheap. It costs significantly more, here, even though you have 3x higher salaries.

$400 is almost 1/4 of my income before taxes.

 

[trophy33]

$400 is almost 1/4 of my income before taxes.

The median annual wage in 2021 in the US was $45,760, which makes roughly $3,800 a month.

 

[Halbhh]

I had no idea that the food in the USA is so cheap. It costs significantly more, here, even though you have 3x higher wages.

Yes, the posts we are both responding to there don't make sense. So, I'm asking about details.

 

[BPPLEE]

The median annual wage in 2021 in the US was $45,760, which makes roughly $3,800 a month.

For a person who makes $50,000 a year the take home pay ( net) is about $2400 a month, after taxes, insurance and retirement are taken out.

 

[dqhall]

It seems from that unusually intense inflation in how you personally buy, as you stated yours numbers, which if you typed correctly is an increase over 100% (our own food inflation in buying our own same as usually purchased items without using the strategies above in the article above, so without special sales, etc., is probably about 10-12% roughly).

From that huge difference, it seems then that the strategies in the article (at bottom of OP) might be even more useful for you.

My health insurance is over $800/month. Out of pocket medical expenses running a little over $7000/yr the past two years. If I live two more years I may get Medicare. Health problems do more damage than 9% inflation. Medical bills are the leading cause of bankruptcies.

I cancelled a $20 a month business news subscription yesterday. I cut back on charitable giving, nor can I ask for charity. I put money into a U.S Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) ETF this summer. I own individual stocks, S&P 500 index fund shares and bonds.

I cooked lentils, chickpeas, oatmeal, cornbread, etc. Some days are meatless. I turned my AC from 78 to 80 degrees. I need it to reduce the Florida humidity.

There is a lady in my 55+ community Facebook group who drove around looking for the cheapest gas in town. I went to the gas station near Walmart as it is closer. I had Walmart deliver groceries once a week as I am disabled and can not push a shopping cart. Walmart is one of the cheapest stores in town.