What did it all started with?

[Neogaia777]

That rather misses the point that @FrumiousBandersnatch made and I complemented. This perception of patterns is a strong, natural, automatic process of the human mind. We may consciously choose to look for patterns, but our subconscious does so routinely and constantly. We are very good at it, detecting subtle patterns that benefit our welfare and support our survival. However, it is so persistent that we detect patterns that are not real. And we make interpretations based upon those imagined patterns that are false.

Well, I think I can 100% guarantee you that mine are not imagined, etc, and it's not just patterns either, etc, I'm actually a very highly logical person, and not given to any of those kinds of things very easily at all, etc...

But, yeah, I am very sorry if I intruded upon yours and FrumiousBandersnatch's conversation though...

And I mean that really...

God Bless!

 

[Neogaia777]

Or it's just so off the scale mathematically impossible, or so extremely highly improbable, but it's happening to you, and with you, and around you, so often and so very much, and quite literally all the time, that it can't be just mere coincidence, because that is quite literally mathematically impossible as well, etc, so it leaves you in a bit of pickle, etc...

Anyway,

God Bless!

So, sorry if I have come to ascribe it to some kind of spirit or spiritual activity or influence, but I'm rather left with no other recourse really, etc...

If you only knew, etc...

Your thoughts and words you said or thought, or said, just seconds ago or moments ago, being repeated or broadcast in your environment and with people around you quite literally all the time, etc, one after the other, after the other, after the other, etc, sometimes happening so much and so fast that you just can't keep up with them all, etc, and that's just the tip of the iceberg, etc, cause there's more, a lot more, etc...

It spits in the face of all of my "logic", etc, and has for while now, etc...

Anyway,

God Bless!

 

[sjastro]

Absolutely. You may have noticed that if you throw three darts at a dart board they nearly always land so as to form the points of a triangle. Coincidence? I think not, but clear proof that aliens from the constellation of Triangulum have been controlling the affairs of men since the time of Ptolemy!

The aliens from Triangulum Australe as usual have been left out due to the great North-South divide.

 

[Ophiolite]

Well, I think I can 100% guarantee you that mine are not imagined, etc, and it's not just patterns either, etc, I'm actually a very highly logical person, and not given to any of those kinds of things very easily at all, etc...

Sorry. You are almost certainly mistaken. I find it unlikely that you should be that remarkable person in a ten or one hundred million who is not prone to false pattern detection. (I think that would indicate some serious neurological problem.) Perhaps you were thinking of the extreme examples, but misreading occurs across a wide spectrum and I would be astounded if you were not sitting on it.

 

[sjastro]

When dealing with experiments where the signal to noise ratio is very low such as the detection of gravitational waves or the Higgs boson, scientists need to be very careful in not mistaking statistical noise as a real signal.
They claim a discovery if the 5 sigma criteria is met where there is only a 1 in 3500000 chance of statistical noise resembling a real signal.

This can be understood by using the magic coin analogy where a coin tossed always lands on heads.
If one tosses the coin 3 times there is a 1 in 8 chance of 3 heads in a row.
This doesn't prove the coin is magic as an ordinary coin where the outcome is purely random can deliver the same result.
Tossing the coin 10 times is a 1 in 1024 chance of 10 heads in row; still statistically possible the result is random.
A coin tossed with 20 heads in a row is greater than a 1 in a 1000000 chance and we can be very confident the coin is magic.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

"Random"...

Lol...

"Merely coincidental instead of providential"...

Lol...

"Chance", etc...

Lol...

The very same things you accuse us of doing, is the very same things you yourselves are doing with those kinds of words, etc...

Cause it's hardly a scientific explanation by a long shot, etc...

If that's a response to my post, I was talking about people's perceptions of events.

If you'd like to quote me on some of the things I accuse you of doing, I'll be happy to explain them.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

Or it's just so off the scale mathematically impossible, or so extremely highly improbable, but it's happening to you, and with you, and around you, so often and so very much, and quite literally all the time, that it can't be just mere coincidence, because that is quite literally mathematically impossible as well, etc, so it leaves you in a bit of pickle, etc...

If it is 'quite literally mathematically impossible', then it can't happen, by definition. IOW, it means you got your maths wrong.

Improbable things can happen many times - but the odds are strongly against it. That would still fit the definition of coincidence, but it would also suggest that there is a causal connection that changes the perceived probability.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

A coin tossed with 20 heads in a row is greater than a 1 in a 1000000 chance and we can be very confident the coin is magic.

I would suggest that you could be even more confident that the coin is just biased. If it was a fair coin, you'd be exceptionally fortunate, and if it was a magic coin, you'd be in a different universe...

 

[SelfSim]

,, If it was a fair coin, you'd be exceptionally fortunate, and if it was a magic coin, you'd be in a different universe...

.. and that universe would be a magic universe.

 

[Neogaia777]

If that's a response to my post, I was talking about people's perceptions of events.

If you'd like to quote me on some of the things I accuse you of doing, I'll be happy to explain them.

You accuse believers of doing, etc...

A post will follow, just got back from helping a friend with yard work, tell you in a minute...

God Bless!

 

[sjastro]

I would suggest that you could be even more confident that the coin is just biased. If it was a fair coin, you'd be exceptionally fortunate, and if it was a magic coin, you'd be in a different universe...

Not in the universe I was envisaging where the bias in the construction of the coin not in the tossing action.
In fact unlike a biased die, a joint study conducted by the University of California and Columbia University indicates building the bias into a coin is impossible.
I'd call it a magic coin rather than a biased coin.

 

[Neogaia777]

OK, I might not even mention this, but it's fresh, as it just happened now today a little while ago, some probably still won't believe me, but some may, so I'm going to just tell you anyway...

I just told you I left earlier to go help a friend with yard work, right...?

Well, he had to come and get me and bring me back when we were done, oh, and BTW, my friend is having these same problems as well, etc, but, anyway, we were leaving my place in his truck, and I said that we should get a Papa Murphy's pizza when we are done, and, anyway, 3-4 seconds right after that, on the Radio (in this instance) came on an add for Papa Murphy's pizza right then on the Radio, etc, OK, no big deal, right, but, when we were done with our work, and on the way driving back, my friend had called in a Papa Murphy's pizza to go pick up, and I asked him, in the truck on the way back and the radio was going, etc, I asked him, "So, did you get a Hawaiian?", and he said to me, "No, I got a cowboy this time", well 3-4 seconds later, the song that immediately came on the radio, was Kid Rock's "Cowboy", so there was two coincidences right there, and maybe three if add into the equation, that both times, it was about Papa Murphy's pizza, etc...

Now, two to three just like that in one whole day, and spaced out like they were, was very, very "mild" for us, etc, so we were just like "Whatever" add to all the other crazy "stuff" that happens with us just like that all of the time and on a very regular basis, etc, so were cooking the pizza back at my place right now...

But, I only mentioned these because they were fresh, and happened just now today, but like I said, a very, very mild day for so-called "crazies" like us, etc, but, when I'm out or go out, or sometimes when I'm just sitting at home, and have something going, these can happen, instances very much just like these, one after the other, after the other, after the other, after the other, etc, and can be sometimes 20-30 a day, or on a really bad day upwards of 50 or more per day, sometimes spaced out, sometimes in quick succession, etc, or a combination of both, etc...

Like I said, I only mention these because they were fresh, to remember all the instances that happen to people like us all of the time every single day, etc, sometimes more, sometimes less, but happening every single day, etc, anyway, it's just impossible, etc, there are just too many, etc, but you kind of gotta, or are forced to wonder "what's up", etc...

So when I say "nigh impossible", I mean "nigh impossible", etc... And it can be something I or another person with me just said, getting repeated or said by someone or something else, etc, or it can even be just the things I am just thinking about at the time sometimes, etc, getting said or repeated or broadcast in the things like, radio, television, people, around me, etc...

They can't just be only just "mere coincidence", etc...

If I were to do the math, starting about ten or so years ago when this all started happening to me or with me, etc, and average out occurrences just like this, etc, well, I don't know what the number would actually be, but in the multiple tens of thousands probably, etc, and your going to sit there and tell me that all of these, just like these, are all just "mere coincidence", etc...?

Don't make me laugh, etc...

Really, don't make me laugh, OK, sometimes it hurts to laugh, but me and my friend do laugh at it sometimes, cause, "what else are you going to do", etc...?

At first you might think it's people doing it somehow, but, "what"...? Were they listening in on us in the truck, and then just hurried up and played that commercial right then, somehow manipulating it, etc, or on the way back maybe, were doing the same kind of thing then as well, etc...?

Not very likely, etc, and some of the things, are quite literally impossible for men of man to ever even be able, or even come close to even doing, etc...

It's so of the charts improbable, especially when you take "all of them" and with the specific kinds of ways this is happening, etc, that I don't think I could give you a number, etc...

And I would ask you to please re-read post # 202, etc...

I wish I could give you "all the specifics of all of them specifically", etc, but they are just like this/these, etc, and to give you all of them, well, is impossible for me anyway, etc...

And the way we have to live our lives, is just to let them go and forget about them anyway, lest they drive us crazy, etc, but it does make you wonder just what in the heck is going on, or what exactly is up exactly, etc...

Like I said, these are fresh, and that's about all I can give you right now, take it or leave it...

Anyway,

God Bless!

 

[Neogaia777]

OK, I might not even mention this, but it's fresh, as it just happened now today a little while ago, some probably still won't believe me, but some may, so I'm going to just tell you anyway...

I just told you I left earlier to go help a friend with yard work, right...?

Well, he had to come and get me and bring me back when we were done, oh, and BTW, my friend is having these same problems as well, etc, but, anyway, we were leaving my place in his truck, and I said that we should get a Papa Murphy's pizza when we are done, and, anyway, 3-4 seconds right after that, on the Radio (in this instance) came on an add for Papa Murphy's pizza right then on the Radio, etc, OK, no big deal, right, but, when we were done with our work, and on the way driving back, my friend had called in a Papa Murphy's pizza to go pick up, and I asked him, in the truck on the way back and the radio was going, etc, I asked him, "So, did you get a Hawaiian?", and he said to me, "No, I got a cowboy this time", well 3-4 seconds later, the song that immediately came on the radio, was Kid Rock's "Cowboy", so there was two coincidences right there, and maybe three if add into the equation, that both times, it was about Papa Murphy's pizza, etc...

Now, two to three just like that in one whole day, and spaced out like they were, was very, very "mild" for us, etc, so we were just like "Whatever" add to all the other crazy "stuff" that happens with us just like that all of the time and on a very regular basis, etc, so were cooking the pizza back at my place right now...

But, I only mentioned these because they were fresh, and happened just now today, but like I said, a very, very mild day for so-called "crazies" like us, etc, but, when I'm out or go out, or sometimes when I'm just sitting at home, and have something going, these can happen, instances very much just like these, one after the other, after the other, after the other, after the other, etc, and can be sometimes 20-30 a day, or on a really bad day upwards of 50 or more per day, sometimes spaced out, sometimes in quick succession, etc, or a combination of both, etc...

Like I said, I only mention these because they were fresh, to remember all the instances that happen to people like us all of the time every single day, etc, sometimes more, sometimes less, but happening every single day, etc, anyway, it's just impossible, etc, there are just too many, etc, but you kind of gotta, or are forced to wonder "what's up", etc...

So when I say "nigh impossible", I mean "nigh impossible", etc... And it can be something I or another person with me just said, getting repeated or said by someone or something else, etc, or it can even be just the things I am just thinking about at the time sometimes, etc, getting said or repeated or broadcast in the things like, radio, television, people, around me, etc...

They can't just be only just "mere coincidence", etc...

If I were to do the math, starting about ten or so years ago when this all started happening to me or with me, etc, and average out occurrences just like this, etc, well, I don't know what the number would actually be, but in the multiple tens of thousands probably, etc, and your going to sit there and tell me that all of these, just like these, are all just "mere coincidence", etc...?

Don't make me laugh, etc...

Really, don't make me laugh, OK, sometimes it hurts to laugh, but me and my friend do laugh at it sometimes, cause, "what else are you going to do", etc...?

At first you might think it's people doing it somehow, but, "what"...? Were they listening in on us in the truck, and then just hurried up and played that commercial right then, somehow manipulating it, etc, or on the way back maybe, were doing the same kind of thing then as well, etc...?

Not very likely, etc, and some of the things, are quite literally impossible for men of man to ever even be able, or even come close to even doing, etc...

It's so of the charts improbable, especially when you take "all of them" and with the specific kinds of ways this is happening, etc, that I don't think I could give you a number, etc...

And I would ask you to please re-read post # 202, etc...

I wish I could give you "all the specifics of all of them specifically", etc, but they are just like this/these, etc, and to give you all of them, well, is impossible for me anyway, etc...

And the way we have to live our lives, is just to let them go and forget about them anyway, lest they drive us crazy, etc, but it does make you wonder just what in the heck is going on, or what exactly is up exactly, etc...

Like I said, these are fresh, and that's about all I can give you right now, take it or leave it...

Anyway,

God Bless!

Please keep in mind that these are just one example only, of only one day only, and a very mild day at that as well, etc, we were able to laugh it off this time, etc, and I say "only one example" because I will forget about them by tomorrow or the next day, as there will be a slew of others probably, or more than likely, to all be considered the next day, etc, so you forget all the specific instances or examples day to day, etc, cause what other way are you supposed to go about it, I mean, you've got to live your life, and live it as much normally as you can, regardless or irregardless of these things, right...?

I don't know what it is, but I know it's "impossible", etc, especially when you take them all together, etc, daily for about ten years now, and especially all the days when they are whole heck of a lot more frequent, and much more numerous, for that or those days, etc...

Oh and when they are "connected" as well, almost forgot to mention that, like about both the instances I mentioned being about Papa Murphy's pizza, etc, but like I said, that day, today, was very, very mild, so mild that we hardly didn't pay it no nevermind, etc...

And I might have even forgot about it by now, if I hadn't been thinking about what I posted to you guys earlier, and how this could be a specific example I could use here, etc, might not even remember it right now, by now, etc...

Certainly will forget all about it by tomorrow or the next day, etc, being replaced with new ones for that day, etc...

Anyway,

God Bless!

 

[Neogaia777]

I feel like every single day of my life, for the last ten years or so now, etc, is like the infinite improbability drive in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, and at the end of each day, it gives me the numbers for that day, etc, like it's announcing it, etc, "A probability or possibility factor of such-and-such extremely high number to one!", etc...

And note that "that" is "everyday", etc, or almost every single day anyway, etc, (some days are not as high as others, etc) but most of the time, with most of the days, they are "pretty dang high", etc, possibility/probability wise, etc...

Then add all those days together, etc...?

And all those days together over "ten years", etc...?

Anyway, just what in the heck am I supposed to think, etc...?

Or what is my friend supposed to think that this has started happening to too, etc...?

It can't be explained by man, and it can't be explained by science, so just what the heck am I supposed to think, etc...

And please note that the example I gave, about the whole pizza thing, etc, was a day that was "low" compared to most of the others, etc, possibility/probability wise, etc, but like I said, it was fresh, etc, and it at least lets you know, or it can give you a general idea of the kinds/types of things that are happening, etc...

On average, if I were to try and average out each day, etc, it's about 15-20 of these a day, on average maybe, etc, and I feel like that's kind of being "conservative", etc, cause it might be a little bit higher than that maybe, etc...

And note the example I gave was only two or three for that day, etc...

Anyway,

God Bless!

 

[SelfSim]

There are 138 matches for 'etc' in this page, thus far!
Whilst some of this includes self-quoted reposts, ALL of those 'etcs' were generated by @Neogaia777!

I'd call that excessive .. especially considering the matter was drawn to @Neogaia777's attention in post #193.

Why does this unnecessary over-usage persist?
This is not what I'd call normal behaviour ..(?)

 

[Neogaia777]

There are 138 matches for 'etc' in this page, thus far!
Whilst some of this includes self-quoted reposts, ALL of those 'etcs' were generated by @Neogaia777!

I'd call that excessive .. especially considering the matter was drawn to @Neogaia777's attention in post #193.

Why does this unnecessary over-usage persist?
This is not what I'd call normal behaviour ..(?)

I'm going to bed...

God Bless!

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

Not in the universe I was envisaging where the bias in the construction of the coin not in the tossing action.
In fact unlike a biased die, a joint study conducted by the University of California and Columbia University indicates building the bias into a coin is impossible.
I'd call it a magic coin rather than a biased coin.

Fair enough - although I do remember a study showing that it is surprisingly easy to bias the tossing action to get a high proportion of heads or tails.

The principle is similar to that of dropping toast - which tends to fall buttered-side-down because the height from which it is dropped doesn't give it time for more than half a rotation; in the case of a coin there are multiple revolutions, but a reasonably consistent short flick and catch can significantly reduce the 'randomness' of the outcome.

 

[Ophiolite]

Well, he had to come and get me and bring me back when we were done, oh, and BTW, my friend is having these same problems as well, etc, but, anyway, we were leaving my place in his truck, and I said that we should get a Papa Murphy's pizza when we are done, and, anyway, 3-4 seconds right after that, on the Radio (in this instance) came on an add for Papa Murphy's pizza right then on the Radio, etc, OK, no big deal, right, but, when we were done with our work, and on the way driving back, my friend had called in a Papa Murphy's pizza to go pick up, and I asked him, in the truck on the way back and the radio was going, etc, I asked him, "So, did you get a Hawaiian?", and he said to me, "No, I got a cowboy this time", well 3-4 seconds later, the song that immediately came on the radio, was Kid Rock's "Cowboy", so there was two coincidences right there, and maybe three if add into the equation, that both times, it was about Papa Murphy's pizza, etc...

If you genuinely find this unusual, which seemingly you do, then your understanding of both probability and human cognition is seriously deficient. Until you are prepared to accept that as a possibility then it unlikely that anyone can help to educate you on the matter. If you are willing to consider it, even as a hypothetical, I am willing to invest the time to work with you. Let me know.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

OK, I might not even mention this, but it's fresh, as it just happened now today a little while ago, some probably still won't believe me, but some may, so I'm going to just tell you anyway...

I just told you I left earlier to go help a friend with yard work, right...?

Well, he had to come and get me and bring me back when we were done, oh, and BTW, my friend is having these same problems as well, etc, but, anyway, we were leaving my place in his truck, and I said that we should get a Papa Murphy's pizza when we are done, and, anyway, 3-4 seconds right after that, on the Radio (in this instance) came on an add for Papa Murphy's pizza right then on the Radio, etc, OK, no big deal, right, but, when we were done with our work, and on the way driving back, my friend had called in a Papa Murphy's pizza to go pick up, and I asked him, in the truck on the way back and the radio was going, etc, I asked him, "So, did you get a Hawaiian?", and he said to me, "No, I got a cowboy this time", well 3-4 seconds later, the song that immediately came on the radio, was Kid Rock's "Cowboy", so there was two coincidences right there, and maybe three if add into the equation, that both times, it was about Papa Murphy's pizza, etc...

Now, two to three just like that in one whole day, and spaced out like they were, was very, very "mild" for us, etc, so we were just like "Whatever" add to all the other crazy "stuff" that happens with us just like that all of the time and on a very regular basis, etc, so were cooking the pizza back at my place right now...

But, I only mentioned these because they were fresh, and happened just now today, but like I said, a very, very mild day for so-called "crazies" like us, etc, but, when I'm out or go out, or sometimes when I'm just sitting at home, and have something going, these can happen, instances very much just like these, one after the other, after the other, after the other, after the other, etc, and can be sometimes 20-30 a day, or on a really bad day upwards of 50 or more per day, sometimes spaced out, sometimes in quick succession, etc, or a combination of both, etc...

Like I said, I only mention these because they were fresh, to remember all the instances that happen to people like us all of the time every single day, etc, sometimes more, sometimes less, but happening every single day, etc, anyway, it's just impossible, etc, there are just too many, etc, but you kind of gotta, or are forced to wonder "what's up", etc...

So when I say "nigh impossible", I mean "nigh impossible", etc... And it can be something I or another person with me just said, getting repeated or said by someone or something else, etc, or it can even be just the things I am just thinking about at the time sometimes, etc, getting said or repeated or broadcast in the things like, radio, television, people, around me, etc...

They can't just be only just "mere coincidence", etc...

If I were to do the math, starting about ten or so years ago when this all started happening to me or with me, etc, and average out occurrences just like this, etc, well, I don't know what the number would actually be, but in the multiple tens of thousands probably, etc, and your going to sit there and tell me that all of these, just like these, are all just "mere coincidence", etc...?

Don't make me laugh, etc...

Really, don't make me laugh, OK, sometimes it hurts to laugh, but me and my friend do laugh at it sometimes, cause, "what else are you going to do", etc...?

At first you might think it's people doing it somehow, but, "what"...? Were they listening in on us in the truck, and then just hurried up and played that commercial right then, somehow manipulating it, etc, or on the way back maybe, were doing the same kind of thing then as well, etc...?

Not very likely, etc, and some of the things, are quite literally impossible for men of man to ever even be able, or even come close to even doing, etc...

It's so of the charts improbable, especially when you take "all of them" and with the specific kinds of ways this is happening, etc, that I don't think I could give you a number, etc...

And I would ask you to please re-read post # 202, etc...

I wish I could give you "all the specifics of all of them specifically", etc, but they are just like this/these, etc, and to give you all of them, well, is impossible for me anyway, etc...

And the way we have to live our lives, is just to let them go and forget about them anyway, lest they drive us crazy, etc, but it does make you wonder just what in the heck is going on, or what exactly is up exactly, etc...

Like I said, these are fresh, and that's about all I can give you right now, take it or leave it...

Anyway,

God Bless!

As has been said, we are attuned to notice patterns in events and coincidences are obvious patterns. When you consider all the events in your life and the vast potential for coincidences, it's inevitable that some will occur and that you will notice and remember some. You should expect this - it would be extraordinary if it didn't happen; you probably miss most of the coincidental associations you could make because your attention is elsewhere when they're proximate.

You also need to consider that many of the kinds of coincidences you describe here are 'made' because two words are heard in close proximity in any context (e.g. 'cowboy' on the radio probably occurs many times a day, but 'pizza', 'Hawaii', etc., are fairly probable too) and you have a window of time in which to make the association.

As you say, deciding to go to a particular food outlet and hearing an advert for that food outlet is not a notable coincidence, it's commonplace - so why mention it? Let me guess - because it makes the second mundane coincidence seem more notable when it really isn't. This sort of coincidence is far more likely than seeing an old friend in the same restaurant as you in a foreign country, or being called by a distant relative just as you were thinking about them. But even these are understandable if you look at the odds - of all the places you've ever been, and all the people you've ever known, what are the chances you'll unexpectedly see someone you know in any of those places?

The 'Birthday Paradox' makes it clearer: the chance of sharing the same birthday as some random individual is 1 in 365.25. But in a group of only 23 the chance that any two will share a birthday is 50%. When you don't specify in advance which individuals (or events) must match, the chances rapidly become higher than you might expect as the number of individuals (or events) increases.

I recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book 'Fooled by Randomness' for a good overview of this topic.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

... It can't be explained by man, and it can't be explained by science, so just what the heck am I supposed to think, etc...

It can be explained, you just need to learn some basic probability and critical thinking - or read a book like Taleb's where it is explicitly explained for you.

On average, if I were to try and average out each day, etc, it's about 15-20 of these a day, on average maybe, etc, and I feel like that's kind of being "conservative", etc, cause it might be a little bit higher than that maybe, etc...

You notice them a lot because you looking for them. When something is on your mind, particularly if it has piqued your curiosity or makes you slightly anxious, your attention will be on alert for it. Most people notice coincidences as a big surprise; but you seem to be looking for them, and it sounds like you'll take anything you can get - it's a form of confirmation bias, like when you buy a new car and suddenly start seeing more cars of that model than you'd noticed before.

You're both isolating and matching events to meet your expectations of significance, and estimating the retrospective probability of their joint occurrence - both of which are common errors in understanding and applying probability.

It may be worth mentioning that seeing exaggerated significance in mundane and everyday observations and events to the extent that it causes anxiety, can be an early sign of mental health problems...