But the statement that "the effect will be thousands upon thousands of dead children and adults" sounds rather like scare propaganda to me.
Normally, it would be. But not in this case. That is what lethal diseases tend to do. Polio, smallpox, measles, mumps, etc are not unconfirmed boogiemen. They are documented diseases that DO kill and disfigure children AND adults for life, if they survive, which noticeable portions don’t. How many millions people died due to smallpox? How many died from the Black Death? How many died due to polio? Diphtheria? Measles? How many die due to other nasty nasty diseases? No, disease is one of the few things that can LEGITIMATELY claim results of thousands of people if let to run rampant. (yes, I know, I know, afaik there is not a black death vaccine. But my point is that DISEASE kills thousands and millions of people, black death is a good example)
Time and time again scare tactics have been proven to be false and ill-founded.
Yes, in many cases. But then again, that doesn’t mean there are none with any credibility.
A case in point was the polio scare that Split Rock mentioned, when people were queuing up for mass immunisation.
And the quarantines, and the closing of public pools, etc etc etc. Polio is real, polio ACTIVELY kills and maims.
The real reality was stated by Dr. Bernard Greenberg, head of the Department of Biostatics at the University of North Carolina. He said that polio increased by 50% between 1957 and 1958 and 80% from 1959-1960, after the introduction of mass immunisation.
On the other hand, haw far down are the increases from previous 1950s levels?
Now, according to
poliomyelitis - Infection, Polio and children, History, Recent eradication efforts, Famous polio survivors, Further reading and a book listed as a source on wiki that I could not physically access and therefore will not cite say that in 1957, there were only 5600 cases of polio. So, in 1958 there would be about 8400, and if it did not decrease from ‘58-’59 in ’60 there would be 15,000 cases, give or take a few hundred. Now, while I cannot find a specific source (nobody seems to want to cite theirs...) the general consensus of polio articles tends to pin numbers of infections pre-1950 at about 20k/year.
(while I was writing this I found this:
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/vis/downloads/vis-ipv.pdf notice it is a flyer thing from the CDC, who SHOULD be considered fairly knowledgeable about how many polio cases the US had. It pegs it in the 20k/year range by the beginning of the 1950s, when the epidemic started).
So, back to ze math. Even in 1960, assuming the two increases you mentioned and no decreases... you still have ~15k/year compared to 20k/year+. IT IS STILL AN OVERALL DECREASE.
Immunisation increased the cases of polio, not vice-versa. It is well known that many diseases suddenly flair up and then just as suddenly diminish. Fortunately, there are few cases of polio today but this is in no way due to immunisation.
Then what did, and why was in coinciding with where the polio vaccine was going around, and why is it still in places with low/troubled vaccination rates? That’s an awful lot of serendipity for all the vaccine givers to stumble upon, you know.
Also, if your unvaccinated kids DON"T get them, I'd go thank all the parents of the kids who DID get vaccinated, so the herd immunity protected yours. And hope that not too many think like you, or you might wind up with infected kids. I know that recently the UK has had a mumps outbreak, that also spread to portions of NY and NJ, and there have been small resurgence of measles as recently as last year in the US of A... gotta LOVE it. And strangely, they coincide with several of the anti-vaccination movements. HRM.
(Edit: I do wish to clarify my sentiment. I do hope your kids grow up clean and disease free. But it won't be refusing vaccines that makes them so.)
And sfs, thanks for the source. It can NEVER hurt to be too sure, especially when dealing with a (bizarrely) touchy situation like this one.

Metherion