Universal Basic Income

[Waggles]

Said every generation of Christians for the past 2,000 years

@OldWiseGuy
1 The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.
2 The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make
them afraid.
Isaiah 17:1-2
Don't think we have to wait too much longer for this Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.

 

[Desk trauma]

Don't think we have to wait too much longer for this Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.

Said every Christian for going on 2,000 years.

Every generation of eschatologists looked at the various "prophecies" and said very soon.

Totes different this time though, right?

 

[Thursday]

The problem is that they covet the productivity of the working middle class

Left wing propaganda with no basis in reality.

Wealthy people benefit when others are prosperous.

It is leftists who want to increase the number of poor and dependent people so that they can increase their power over the world's population.

 

[LadyCrosstalk]

Left wing propaganda with no basis in reality.

Wealthy people benefit when others are prosperous.

It is leftists who want to increase the number of poor and dependent people so that they can increase their power over the world's population.

Well, that too.

 

[Thursday]

Said every Christian for going on 2,000 years.

Every generation of eschatologists looked at the various "prophecies" and said very soon.

Totes different this time though, right?

The Catholic Church has never taken that position and most Christians are Catholic.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Said every Christian for going on 2,000 years.

Every generation of eschatologists looked at the various "prophecies" and said very soon.

Totes different this time though, right?

Lots of prophecy has already been fulfilled. Most of the latter day prophecies concerning the Jews are in 'active fulfillment' as we speak.

 

[Desk trauma]

Lots of prophecy has already been fulfilled. Most of the latter day prophecies concerning the Jews are in 'active fulfillment' as we speak.

No, no, really! It's going to happen this time! Pay no attention to the past 2,000 years of people saying exactly the same thing and fitting the prophecies to their times!

 

[OldWiseGuy]

No, no, really! It's going to happen this time! Pay no attention to the past 2,000 years of people saying exactly the same thing and fitting the prophecies to their times!

By "It's" I think you are referring a single, cataclysmic prophetic event; God's wrath and the end of civilization as we know it. The great "Day of the Lord" (that you are referring to) will be preceded by the "Tribulation", which is man caused disasters, not God's wrath.

The Jews have been persecuted for the last 2000 years, as well as fulfilling other prophecies concerning them.

Many of those 'crying wolf' regarding the prophecies were just trying to discredit them. Admittedly there has been a lot of wishful thinking by Christians as well. Serious bible students look for a series of events that must occur first, namely the self-inflicted collapse of man made institutions.

 

[Desk trauma]

Many of those 'crying wolf' regarding the prophecies were just trying to discredit them. Admittedly there has been a lot of wishful thinking by Christians as well. Serious bible students look for a series of events that must occur first, namely the self-inflicted collapse of man made institutions.

This time the interpretation is right! All those other times were different because, reasons.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

This time the interpretation is right! All those other times were different because, reasons.

Like anything else interpretation gets better with time and experience.

 

[JustHereToTalk]

That day could be coming very soon as technology advances, and we even have to deal with artificial intelligence.

When has AI ever reduced the number of available jobs?

 

[Fantine]

Think about the many jobs eliminated by technology--ATM's, bricks and mortars stores closed due to online shopping, postal jobs eliminated by email and online billing and payment. Think of all the good sales jobs formerly held by insurance agents, stockbrokers, etc. Think of how many fewer law clerks are needed to do research.

If the total number of jobs hasn't decreased, there's one reason---demand hasn't slowed because the middle class in the USA, even though it is wounded, battered, scarred, and beaten down, still survives.

At some point, sooner rather than later, if Republicans keep pummeling and hurting the middle class and working poor by union busting, dismantling the safety net, fighting against minimum wages, etc., the demand will end...

And the gravy train for the rich will come to a halt.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

Technology will never replace people, they are deisgned to do number crunching and the hard repetitive work, and us will do the relational or creative work.

I think your idea on what "technology" consists of, is stuck in the 90s.

Todays advances in AI and Robotics - and especially the combination of both - is opening a big can of worms.

Let's take a realistic trip to a near future of an all-connected world (the internet of things)... I'm not saying that this is how it will be. I'm saying that this scenario is perfectly feasable with today's technological trend and it would only take 2 decades at most to acquire all necessary technology.


It's a typical saturday. You need to do your grosseries.

Currently, you would get in your car, drive to the supermarket, fill your chart, wait in line, have everything scanned by the cashier, you pay, load your car, drive home and unload everything.

Step 1: how this will change: you wouldn't drive your car. Instead, you tell your car to drive you.
Step 2: you no longer fill your own shopping chart or wait in line. Or as a cashier, you no longer have that job. Because now, the supermarket is like a giant gumball machine. You send your list, through some app prob, your car drives you to the supermarket machine, you identify yourself and out comes a shopping chart with everything you ordered.
Step 3: your car no longer drives you. You stay at home and you just tell your car to go pick up your grosseries. The supermarket machine now is able to load grosseries into/unto a car through a universal mechanism.
Step 4: you no longer tell you car to pick it up. your "smart home" knows that you need grosseries. It's an AI engine that powers it, so it also knows, perhaps even better then you yourself, what you want and need. It sends the shopping list automatically. At some point, your car simply asks you "is it okay for me to go pick your grosseries now?", to make sure that you don't need the car. Or, off course, a supermarket drone just delivers it to your house.

That supermarket used to employ some 30 people. Now it only requires a maintenance crew of perhaps 3. And if they need to work, it means the machine isn't working.

Now, consider this level of technology in all the industries that need to exist in order for that supermarket machine to be there... It needs products. So you require factories and distribution.

Again, considering the rapid advances in robotics, I'm having trouble finding examples of things that are currently done by humans in the "production" process, that couldn't be done by robots. And likely done better as well.

The technology that makes your car drive on auto-pilot, will also make just about every driver job in distribution obsolete. That goes for all transportation. Boats, cars, trucks, airplanes, trains,...

And you can think about this in the exact same way for just about all industries.
Like a simple bar for instance....

What can a waitress do, that a drone can't do - except perhaps dropping a tray of full glasses?

All in all, I think the estimate of 40% job loss due to this trend, is actually rather optimistic. I think it will be a lot more.

So in the future, the work will ether be entertainer, face to face service, software related or other creative sectors. For people who has no skills, they will be human services, i.e. security guards, plumbers, handyman, or anything that only a human can do.

Plumbers and handymen - okay. But please note that those are already existing jobs. In and in the future I painted above, we won't be requiring more of them...

As for security guards... they will become obsolete as well. Or at the VERY least, we will require FAR less of them. Smart security systems are well on their way. In fact, I just watched an incredible demo of such a system in context of "safety at the workplace".

Smart camera's easily detected safety violations and notified those responsible to take action. Through facial recognition, it was also easily able to notify managers if certain workers were using tools that they weren't authorized to use.
In case of actual accidents (fires, explosions, wounded humans, etc), it also automatically notified emergency services.

This system does a FAR better job then an entire team of professional safety guards. Similar systems could easily be deployed for overall security. No more need for plenty of patrolling officers. Or at least: a lot less need for such.

I would imaging by that time food will be so cheap it will be very easy to survive.

I beg the differ. Already today, it is problematic to feed all humans. Human population is still quickly rising. Global warming won't make it easier to grow even more food. And that's not even counting drinkable water, which will be even more of a problem.

If anything, I predict the price of food and water to rise.

An universal basic income will either instantly cause inflation (if it is applied to everyone),

I don't see why.

or raising the hiring cost by that amount and impede small businesses. Economy is the most strange thing....

Currently, the largest cost for businesses, big or small, are the employees.
There's a reason why big factories make use of robots already today. Do you really think they would deploy automated assembly lines today, if it were actually cheaper (ie: more profit) to have humans do those jobs?

 

[Fantine]

My post is about the need to protect the middle class as technology leaches jobs because without a broad consumer base lack of demand will cause a depression.

A UBI is one strategy that could help--but Republican policies can only hurt.

 

[timewerx]

It sounds like a wonderful idea, but isn't it welfare state?
I doubt it'd work, it'd end up making everyone poor.

I think a few countries have tested the idea and seems like it might work. However, these are relatively low population countries.

But implementing Universal Basic Income on a global scale, 7 billion people, at first glance it might eradicate poverty but.....

If everyone now has minimum income, everyone will now have access to basic necessities..... In such scenario, we'll run out of resources pretty fast, which may include food.

So before UBI, we must first figure out a way to mass produce food synthetically or else we'd be fighting for food supplies... The Earth simply could not sustain our population especially if nobody is poor. We have already filled the Earth since the Tower of Babel many thousands of years ago... God didn't tell us to fill every square foot of Earth's land for that would be very dumb and how could everyone prosper with such a huge population? You can't unless we could live in other planets!

 

[JustHereToTalk]

I think your idea on what "technology" consists of, is stuck in the 90s.

Todays advances in AI and Robotics - and especially the combination of both - is opening a big can of worms.

When has AI put anyone out of work?

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I know it's easy to get caught up on what's fair, but any type of socialism or universal-anything is in now way fair. No matter what system of government you have, someone will have to take up the slack.

It isn't a matter of fairness. It is a matter of maintaining a functional society.

In this case, paying a McDonalds worker the same as a doctor is a major slap in the face.

It seems you're not understanding the idea of a universal basic income.
It's not a communist thingy where everybody gets the same income, no matter what job they do.

Rather, it is an income every citizen gets as an integral part of its citizenship - no matter what job they do or don't do.

So that McDonalds worker, will get his McDonals paycheck on top of that basic income. And that doctor will get his doctor income on top of that basic income.

Meaning that a practicing doctor will still make loads more money then that McDonalds works.

Here's the thing though: in the future where basic income will become important, that doctor will still have a job. That McDonalds worker probably won't....

And here's your fairness: it's not just the now-unemployed McDonalds worker that gets the "free" income. Everyone gets it! Including that rich doctor!

It's just like the wage gap myth for women. Women don't really get paid less, they actually work less than men on average. They work less hours and take more breaks/vacations.

[Staff edit].

Back when I was an employed software engineer, we had women on our team as well. They had the exact same contract as the rest of us. They worked the same hours and had the same vacation days. Duh!!

Having said that, the "lesser pay" is, off course, proportionally.
Off course women more regurarly will do part-time work etc. The lesser pay is about the hourly rate, not about the total number at the end of the month, regardless of the performed hours.

Things are more fair under a capitalistic system.

As shown above, there's no reason a society with a universal basic income could not be a capitalistic system. You are still free to do whatever job you please and whatever you earn doing that will simply be another source of income, next to the basic income that ALL citizens get.

You get paid for your skill level and the value you provide to the world/your clients, etc.

Sure. And that would be the case with or without a basic income for all citizens.

If robots replace humans, then get in the business of robot programming. Learn code.

While that new reality certainly will create additional programmer jobs, it is delusional to think that there will be enough such jobs for all those who's jobs were annihilated by the combo of AI and robotics.

You have to adjust with the times, learn new skills, and grow as a person.

And a universal basic income, will only make it easier for you to do that.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

And when you start taxing rich people, they raise the price on everything. Who does that hit? The middle class. The poor are elevated, the rich can afford it, and the middle class gets stiffed again.

You're failing to see the bigger picture.
Production would become a LOT cheaper. Hence the whole reason why this automation takes place: human workers cost a LOT. It's not just the wages... it's all the rest as well... all the required investments in creating an acceptable workplace (cafeteria's, safety, risk assessment, insurances, etc etc). All those costs would evaporate.

What would be taxed, more then likely, would be the use of robotics. And that tax could go straight to the fund that manages the universal income. Keep in mind also that it's not the business owner that is being taxed. It is the business itself. And still, the business owner would make MORE money then today. All those additional costs of hiring human workers, still aren't part of the equation anymore, remember...

You need to grasp what an enormous amount of wealth such far-reaching automation will generate. Robots don't need sleep, rest, vacation, etc. They run 24/7.

You could tax companies for what-is-currently and INSANE amount, and STILL the business owner would make far more money then today.

Raising taxes hurts them the most as they are more likely to be in that "I'm doing okay right now, though I wish I had some money saved and I'm one fall short of being in the poorhouse." A raise of prices, of gas, the cost of food, etc, all hits the middle class the worst.

Imagine how hurt any class would be if +40% of jobs disappear, with nothing to replace it or to fall back on...

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

I'm in the restaurant business, many decades ago every plate and fork and spoon was washed by hand, but then the robot known as the commerical dishwasher was invented. This allowed to eliminate one extra dishwasher, If you employed three dishwasher you were now able to fire one of them. The dishwasher elevated health standards as these wash plates in the appropriate cycles using 140-160 degree water sterilizing everything. The Health Dept will not even allow you to open a restaurant without this machine nowadays. So you lost some dishwashing jobs but created an entire industry for the better for maintenance, installation and selling of the various soaps and detergents needed.
Who do you think is going to repair, install, maintain and manufacture these robots? The robots replace menial labor jobs for better ones.

It's easy to think that way. But it doesn't work, this time around.
It's not merely about the robotics anymore. It's the combination of robotics and AI and Big Data.

One needs to be realistic here.
As Elon Musk once noted... currently around 25% of jobs are in the distribution/transport industry. Taxi drivers, bus drivers, truck drivers, boat captains, pilots, etc.

Let's be optimistic and state that fully automated transport (as in, NO human required on the inside - it's fully automated) destroys 15% of jobs.
In my country, that would result in more then 1 million people being unemployed.

It's safe to say that no company will require 1 million people to create, build or maintain these vehicles. In fact................ the maintenance checkups more then likely will be automated to one extend or another as well. I can easily imagine an automated taxi doing a pitstop at "taxi central" where it automatically hooks up to a machine which does a bunch of automated safety checks (more accurately then any human could). No human needs to be part of that process.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

When has AI put anyone out of work?

We are talking about future developments in context of today's technological advances.

And as I detailed, there are already plenty of proofs of concept where entire teams are replaced by "smart systems".

Some other technologies are being build as we speak and are even already partially implemented in real life. Auto-pilot for vehicles come to mind.

Once that is advanced enough, it will instantly mean the end of just about every truck driver, taxi driver, bus driver,... And that moment really isn't as far into the future as you would think.

Here's that demo I spoke about in another post:

Today, even as proofs of concept, all these things seem small by themselves with limited impact on current jobs. So we require only 2 safety people instead of 5 - big whoop, you might say.

You need to see the bigger picture however. It's not about the actual implementation of the technology in these specific examples. It's about the actual technology and what it means in more generic settings - especially when it gets combined with the other technologies.

In short, it's about the potential and feasable capabilities - not about the current incarnations.