Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

[lordjeff]

That sounds like an admission that you cannot support your claims. One thing that really irritates me from especially Christian science deniers is when they make a false claim of scientists "assuming". As I pointed out earlier scientists are not allowed to assume in the way that you appeared to use the term. That would put a burden of proof upon you. One thing to understand as a Christian is that the Ninth Commandment does not apply to just lying about your fellow man. If you pass on something that is false, even if you do not know that it is false, that is still a case of bearing false witness. Not knowing that one's claims are not true is not an excuse.

Global warming is fairly well understood. What you are talking about are factors that can make it even a bit worse. They do not eliminate the fact of AGW. Also you do not even understand the Greenhouse effect. What causes it is visible light that strikes the Earth and then the heat from that is not allowed to escape.

If you want to talk about the basics of the science I can help you to understand it. Your claim that "climate changes because it changes" is demonstrably false. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a huge factor. And guess what man has done to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?

I have 3 degrees & am well versed in my fields. I do not need to have published anything in Science journal. One thing I've learned thru teacher education is know your audience. I choose my words so that people can understand the vernacular. My astrophysics prof did it the same way. And I do understand the greenhouse effect. Our Sun radiates in all parts of the E/M spectrum, but mostly visible light, but also the others on the near short & near long end. CO2 presence is just enough to get our plants off the ground. But it is a small component of the atmosphere. So while you root for the idea that we should ban all modes of transport or all steel factories or all furnaces-essential to keep us warm in winter you refuse to understand that the CO2 is observed because of the unique attributes of the planet. We will not be Venus given our composition. Now in X number of eons the continents will shift around the globe again & who knows what new ocean currents or wind currents will be set up. It could be more mountains or savannah or desert or islands. Ocean basins may close--or open. Plankton will still live & die & sink to the bottom where over the eons will become petroleum. Weather is what it is. It's natural. The global alarmists just want attention to believe they are the center of all things created.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Now in X number of eons the continents will shift around the globe again & who knows what new ocean currents or wind currents will be set up. It could be more mountains or savannah or desert or islands. Ocean basins may close--or open. Plankton will still live & die & sink to the bottom where over the eons will become petroleum.

This is all irrelevant. These things take place over longer periods of time than humanity has existed. Concern about man-made climate change is not about thousands of years or millions of years, but decades. Things have changed in human lifetimes, will continue to change for a decade or two, and if we don't stop our destructive CO2 emissions habit they will happen for much longer. Those changes are occurring faster than the ecology can adjust.

 

[Subduction Zone]

I have 3 degrees & am well versed in my fields. I do not need to have published anything in Science journal. One thing I've learned thru teacher education is know your audience. I choose my words so that people can understand the vernacular. My astrophysics prof did it the same way. And I do understand the greenhouse effect. Our Sun radiates in all parts of the E/M spectrum, but mostly visible light, but also the others on the near short & near long end. CO2 presence is just enough to get our plants off the ground. But it is a small component of the atmosphere. So while you root for the idea that we should ban all modes of transport or all steel factories or all furnaces-essential to keep us warm in winter you refuse to understand that the CO2 is observed because of the unique attributes of the planet. We will not be Venus given our composition. Now in X number of eons the continents will shift around the globe again & who knows what new ocean currents or wind currents will be set up. It could be more mountains or savannah or desert or islands. Ocean basins may close--or open. Plankton will still live & die & sink to the bottom where over the eons will become petroleum. Weather is what it is. It's natural. The global alarmists just want attention to believe they are the center of all things created.

As a teacher did you not ever learn that using a strawman argument is a form of lying? You just did it again. What makes you think I am against all industrial processes? Nor is anyone claiming that we will be anything like Venus. Your lack of education in this topic is demonstrated by your rants and denial.

Let's back up a bit. Please try to explain how the Greenhouse Effect works in your own words. I seriously doubt if you understand this uncontroversial concept.

 

[Hans Blaster]

CO2 presence is just enough to get our plants off the ground. But it is a small component of the atmosphere. So while you root for the idea that we should ban all modes of transport or all steel factories or all furnaces-essential to keep us warm in winter you refuse to understand that the CO2 is observed because of the unique attributes of the planet. We will not be Venus given our composition.

Of course we won't be Venus and all planets are unique. That's not the point.

Nor is anyone trying to ban all modes of transport, or winter heating, or factories. Anyone who is telling you that that is the goal of "climate activism" is *LYING* to you. Don't believe them. (There are plenty of "climate liars" out there. Some have been quoted in this thread.)

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

I have 3 degrees & am well versed in my fields. I do not need to have published anything in Science journal. One thing I've learned thru teacher education is know your audience. I choose my words so that people can understand the vernacular. My astrophysics prof did it the same way. And I do understand the greenhouse effect.

So why make silly mistakes like suggesting the solar wind carries IR and that it isn't a problem because it doesn't get through the clouds? That's not 'vernacular' it's plain wrong.

 

[eclipsenow]

I have 3 degrees & am well versed in my fields. I do not need to have published anything in Science journal. One thing I've learned thru teacher education is know your audience. I choose my words so that people can understand the vernacular.

So why didn't you use the CORRECT vernacular?
I have a humanities background, and even I saw through your post.

And I do understand the greenhouse effect.

So why didn't you use the CORRECT vernacular?

Our Sun radiates in all parts of the E/M spectrum, but mostly visible light, but also the others on the near short & near long end.

Now we're getting somewhere...

CO2 presence is just enough to get our plants off the ground.

(sound of record needle scratching across vinyl....) say what?

But it is a small component of the atmosphere.

A funnel-web spider bite is a small component of human blood - but it will still kill you.
It's not the percent of something, it's the potency.
That's why we have the Radiative Forcing Equation which has worked out we are now adding an extra 4 Hiroshima bombs per second heat imbalance to the atmosphere.

So while you root for the idea that we should ban all modes of transport or all steel factories or all furnaces-essential to keep us warm in winter

How charming - a Republican Christian that issues strawman character attacks about my motives. Not predictable at all! What if I told you I want to roll out a convenient, attractive, beautiful modern life for all 10 billion of us on earth by 2050?

Oh, and while we're doing character attacks - how are your oil and coal investments going - and how many friends do you have in these industries? It's the only reason a thinking person would defy modern climate science. You must have skin in the game! Oh, and what is it you like about particulate pollution, smog, and cancer? Did you know you really have to DOUBLE the cost of coal electricity to really measure the health costs on a nation?

Fossil fuel pollution kills more people each week when it goes right than the entire history of nuclear power going wrong. Coal doubles the cost of your electricity, but outsources the other half to the national health bill. Coal ash is more dangerous than nuclear waste because smoke stacks still release some of those particulates - and at umpteen parts per million tons of coal burned, food grown around coal fired power plants is twice as radioactive as normal. Finally - coal is finite, and will peak in supply halfway before it runs out - going from an increasing supply of cheap fuel to a decreasing supply of ever more expensive fuel. It's time to aggressively wean off fossil fuels and move to cleaner air, better cities, a healthier population and long term energy security. I'm not sure what mix of renewables and nukes will do the job - but we won't know definitively until we try. Breeder reactors eat nuclear waste - turning a long term storage problem into today's energy solution. America has enough nuclear 'waste' to run her for 1000 years!
Coal kills

you refuse to understand that the CO2 is observed because of the unique attributes of the planet.

What does that sentence even mean? So we can't observe CO2 on other planets? Ummm.... Venus?

We will not be Venus given our composition.

No one is saying the Earth becoming Venus is the main climate fear. Just maybe 3 or 4 degrees, not hundreds. Just the increased geopolitical tensions that could lead to full scale nuclear war as various bread basket and fresh water crisis hit various countries.

Now in X number of eons the continents will shift around the globe again & who knows what new ocean currents or wind currents will be set up.

Yup, there's natural climate shifts over millions of years. Are you saying human beings wouldn't easily and gradually adapt to those changes over millions of years? The human species hasn't even really been around that long!

Global warming is human induced and is measured now in changes wrought in decades, not centuries, and definitely not millennia, let alone mega-years or giga-years!

It could be more mountains or savannah or desert or islands. Ocean basins may close--or open.

You do love to distract with irrelevant strawmen! Decades and centuries, not millennia or mega-years.

Plankton will still live & die & sink to the bottom where over the eons will become petroleum.

Yeah - and we could one day terraform Mars and have huge O'Neil cylinders we live on in space. Indeed, if the Lord delays his return, we could one day have so many people living in space the number on earth is only a tiny fraction of the human race! Oh, and one day I might even get the latest NVIDIA RTX 3080 Graphics Card, or change my career like I've wanted to for 10 years. But what is the RELEVANCE to the climate crisis which is peer-reviewed, real, and a clear and present danger to our lives now?

At first you'll notice in increasing economic damage - damage that will start to compare with the Covid 19 threat. Only every second year, then every year. You'll notice more and more climate events, mega-storms, mega-droughts, mega-floods. You'll notice new pandemics as disease vectors change. Then if you live long enough, the dustbowls will start.

Weather is what it is.

Um, do me a favour?
Go grab a dictionary and look up weather. That's the word that starts with a dubya.
Then look up climate. That's the one that starts with a see, as in C.

Then report what you find back here?
Thanks.

It's natural.

A metaphor might help. Weather is the waves in the bath, the short term variation generated by the baby kicking around. Climate is the fact that someone left the tap on, and if no one steps in and fixes it the baby will drown. The baby is the stability of our fragile geopolitical world - and when it 'drowns' we go to war. Get it now?

Oh, and how fast is that 'bathwater' rising? 4 Hiroshima bombs per year - as shown by the Radiative Forcing Equation which measures the effects of CO2 on the planet before the industrial revolution when it was at about 180 ppm, and now at over 400ppm.

The global alarmists just want attention to believe they are the center of all things created.

Where deniers KNOW they are the centre of all things, and don't want any pesky science or government telling them their energy systems might have to change for the good of future generations. How self-indulgent! How "Christian" of you! Where's your honesty in this "debate", and where is your love of neighbour?

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

Reminds me of this cartoon:

 

[sjastro]

Despite the derision, climate change deniers do have their fans.

​

 

[lordjeff]

You must be a communist troll of some kind. Why would you pick a site like this to launch such a tirade. My position is simple. Climate changes; it has for as long as the earth has existed. You think that all of a sudden Al Gore drops into the human race he must be right that we are rapidly heating up the earth. None of these temperature predictions have panned out. Certain people seem to want to be the center of all things that operate in the universe. There are too many other processes that operate. Let me also note that our gas planets put out a lot of methane in their atmosphere; you don't see a runaway greenhouse gas there. Ah must be the concepts from all those other science subjects. And furthermore scientists still study the subject. The planet, the solar system, the Sun are all too big & the primary drivers of the energy cycle. Human contribution just cannot manipulate it that much given the natural repositories. You just are not very tolerant of others' opinions & there is no need for alarmism. I don't understand why you would want to go back to the Stone Age. You really envision an earth w/o modern transportation. What is your cure for people who live in the far north like Minnesota, or the Yukon or the deep north of Russia. Do you want them to freeze to death for the sake of what some invisible prize? Too much obscession. You just bought into the democratic playbook which is to make everything & anything a crisis. Clearly the US has progressed a long way in its air since 1970. We could do a better job with our physical land pollution be it landfills that are up to the brim or just the unsightly plastic, paper, foam, appliances tossed out into the countryside. But I don't see any politicians doing anything about that either because a) it's labor intensive to pick up & b) it does not get their name on a bridge. What is easier for them to do is to eliminate as many conveniences for humankind as they can under the guise of progress. They're phonies. I mean just look at the number of VIPS that got caught violating their own covids rules. These people are no different than the kings & queens of the age of feudalism. They thing rules don't apply to them. And they have no concept how electric grids work. They thing batteries are cheap; they're not & that is why they are specially secured in many stores. All batteries eventually reach retirement & then where are you going to pack them away for their corpses. Landfills again? Try Africa. That's where the electronic waste is going now. But politicians in our country don't represent any one unless it unleashes something for them. They don't care how the people in the north of Maine will handle winter. To them it's just easy to turn on electric heat. My state has the highest continental electric prices in the nation. What if those prices now rival the mortgage? Then how will people survive? You think they will remain here. You think they will pull off martyrdom on this mullarkey? No they will go south where heating is not needed as much. But if you think someone with 1500 square feet of space is going to pay $1500 for their electric bill in the winter, you've lost your mind. Now arguably I could support MAGLEV trains because they eliminate a pollution source & because of their efficiency might even drag more people off the roads but every time I write my congressperson on the issue-nope--just rather keep subsidizing Amtrak, a failed train system that to survive needs the govt. So in sum, you're not convincing me on any of this. The Sun rules.

 

[lordjeff]

Anyone who naive enought to believe our politicians will not threaten to remove gasoline-powered means of transport, not to mention all the earth-excavating vehicles needed in building infrastructure, or penalizing people with high electric, clearly does not understand the wickedness of man.

 

[Subduction Zone]

You must be a communist troll of some kind. Why would you pick a site like this to launch such a tirade. My position is simple. Climate changes; it has for as long as the earth has existed. You think that all of a sudden Al Gore drops into the human race he must be right that we are rapidly heating up the earth. None of these temperature predictions have panned out. Certain people seem to want to be the center of all things that operate in the universe. There are too many other processes that operate. Let me also note that our gas planets put out a lot of methane in their atmosphere; you don't see a runaway greenhouse gas there. Ah must be the concepts from all those other science subjects. And furthermore scientists still study the subject. The planet, the solar system, the Sun are all too big & the primary drivers of the energy cycle. Human contribution just cannot manipulate it that much given the natural repositories. You just are not very tolerant of others' opinions & there is no need for alarmism. I don't understand why you would want to go back to the Stone Age. You really envision an earth w/o modern transportation. What is your cure for people who live in the far north like Minnesota, or the Yukon or the deep north of Russia. Do you want them to freeze to death for the sake of what some invisible prize? Too much obscession. You just bought into the democratic playbook which is to make everything & anything a crisis. Clearly the US has progressed a long way in its air since 1970. We could do a better job with our physical land pollution be it landfills that are up to the brim or just the unsightly plastic, paper, foam, appliances tossed out into the countryside. But I don't see any politicians doing anything about that either because a) it's labor intensive to pick up & b) it does not get their name on a bridge. What is easier for them to do is to eliminate as many conveniences for humankind as they can under the guise of progress. They're phonies. I mean just look at the number of VIPS that got caught violating their own covids rules. These people are no different than the kings & queens of the age of feudalism. They thing rules don't apply to them. And they have no concept how electric grids work. They thing batteries are cheap; they're not & that is why they are specially secured in many stores. All batteries eventually reach retirement & then where are you going to pack them away for their corpses. Landfills again? Try Africa. That's where the electronic waste is going now. But politicians in our country don't represent any one unless it unleashes something for them. They don't care how the people in the north of Maine will handle winter. To them it's just easy to turn on electric heat. My state has the highest continental electric prices in the nation. What if those prices now rival the mortgage? Then how will people survive? You think they will remain here. You think they will pull off martyrdom on this mullarkey? No they will go south where heating is not needed as much. But if you think someone with 1500 square feet of space is going to pay $1500 for their electric bill in the winter, you've lost your mind. Now arguably I could support MAGLEV trains because they eliminate a pollution source & because of their efficiency might even drag more people off the roads but every time I write my congressperson on the issue-nope--just rather keep subsidizing Amtrak, a failed train system that to survive needs the govt. So in sum, you're not convincing me on any of this. The Sun rules.

Wow! Who are you responding to? This is quite the wall of text. By the way you do not understand what you are talking about. Your supposed degrees appear to be all but worthless. By the way I used to oppose AGW specifically because of Al Gore. I did not like the man. I could see that a lot of what he was pushing was hype. But he was more correct than incorrect. It is a major threat.

I offered to go over the basics of this which you clearly do not understand with you. Actually I offered to go over the Greenhouse Effect with you since you obviously did not even understand that. I am still willing to do so. Here is a hint, you cannot refute that which you do not understand.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Anyone who naive enought to believe our politicians will not threaten to remove gasoline-powered means of transport, not to mention all the earth-excavating vehicles needed in building infrastructure, or penalizing people with high electric, clearly does not understand the wickedness of man.

Umm no. This has nothing to do with the supposed wickedness of man. It is rather basic science.

By the way, it is wicked to harm others unnecessarily. I can easily argue that those refusing to learn about and avert AGW are wicked. But that does not help very much. Education helps. If you are an educator you should be interested in your own education. Once again would you care to learn the basics of this science starting with the Greenhouse Effect?

 

[sjastro]

You must be a communist troll of some kind Why would you pick a site like this to launch such a tirade. My position is simple. Climate changes; it has for as long as the earth has existed. You think that all of a sudden Al Gore drops into the human race he must be right that we are rapidly heating up the earth. None of these temperature predictions have panned out. Certain people seem to want to be the center of all things that operate in the universe. There are too many other processes that operate. Let me also note that our gas planets put out a lot of methane in their atmosphere; you don't see a runaway greenhouse gas there. Ah must be the concepts from all those other science subjects. And furthermore scientists still study the subject. The planet, the solar system, the Sun are all too big & the primary drivers of the energy cycle. Human contribution just cannot manipulate it that much given the natural repositories. You just are not very tolerant of others' opinions & there is no need for alarmism. I don't understand why you would want to go back to the Stone Age. You really envision an earth w/o modern transportation. What is your cure for people who live in the far north like Minnesota, or the Yukon or the deep north of Russia. Do you want them to freeze to death for the sake of what some invisible prize? Too much obscession. You just bought into the democratic playbook which is to make everything & anything a crisis. Clearly the US has progressed a long way in its air since 1970. We could do a better job with our physical land pollution be it landfills that are up to the brim or just the unsightly plastic, paper, foam, appliances tossed out into the countryside. But I don't see any politicians doing anything about that either because a) it's labor intensive to pick up & b) it does not get their name on a bridge. What is easier for them to do is to eliminate as many conveniences for humankind as they can under the guise of progress. They're phonies. I mean just look at the number of VIPS that got caught violating their own covids rules. These people are no different than the kings & queens of the age of feudalism. They thing rules don't apply to them. And they have no concept how electric grids work. They thing batteries are cheap; they're not & that is why they are specially secured in many stores. All batteries eventually reach retirement & then where are you going to pack them away for their corpses. Landfills again? Try Africa. That's where the electronic waste is going now. But politicians in our country don't represent any one unless it unleashes something for them. They don't care how the people in the north of Maine will handle winter. To them it's just easy to turn on electric heat. My state has the highest continental electric prices in the nation. What if those prices now rival the mortgage? Then how will people survive? You think they will remain here. You think they will pull off martyrdom on this mullarkey? No they will go south where heating is not needed as much. But if you think someone with 1500 square feet of space is going to pay $1500 for their electric bill in the winter, you've lost your mind. Now arguably I could support MAGLEV trains because they eliminate a pollution source & because of their efficiency might even drag more people off the roads but every time I write my congressperson on the issue-nope--just rather keep subsidizing Amtrak, a failed train system that to survive needs the govt. So in sum, you're not convincing me on any of this. The Sun rules.

For someone who claims to have three degrees and is educated on the subject, calling a poster a "communist troll" paints a very different picture.

Since the Sun rules, the following rules apply.
(1) If the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface increases, the temperature of the troposphere and lower stratosphere increases.
(2) If the amount of solar radiation decreases, the temperature of the troposphere and lower stratosphere decreases.
Measurements indicate the following; the temperature of the troposphere is increasing while the lower stratosphere is decreasing.

I have lost count of the number of times I have explained this characteristic signature of AGW only to encounter the deafening sounds of crickets from climate deniers who are probably hard of hearing for having their heads stuck in the ground.

 

[GOD Shines Forth!]

A haiku for the Sun

The flaming sun burns!
But since it's a ways out there,
It feels pretty good!

 

[loveofourlord]

Just today there was a report that it's methane that is the worst offender. That was known to some extent, but now the scientific community says that it's methane from the oil, gas and coal industry that it mostly to blame. So the world has been clamouring for CO2 reduction at great expense and for little benefit. Ah science, you've done it again.

ahhh yes this old nugget of a lie :>

Is Methane more damaging? In a way sorta, the difference is, methane stays in the atmosphere for about a decade, co2 stays in there for hundreds of years. So water and methane that are both as bad if not worse then c02 get cycled out frequently, while co2 just builds and builds.

the methane from 11 years ago is gone, while the CO2 from 111 years ago is still there. Along with all the co2 that's been added since.

 

[loveofourlord]

Except that isn't true.

"CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas but CO2 follows warming, not precedes warming"
In particular, this seems to be a contradiction.

This is easily explained by c02 starts things going, but as the temperature increases the seas get hotter causing them to release more c02, forest fires become more prevalent and such increasing c02. it's not that the co2 is lagging, it's that the temperature increase adds more to the system that makes c02 increase.

 

[Subduction Zone]

ahhh yes this old nugget of a lie :>

Is Methane more damaging? In a way sorta, the difference is, methane stays in the atmosphere for about a decade, co2 stays in there for hundreds of years. So water and methane that are both as bad if not worse then c02 get cycled out frequently, while co2 just builds and builds.

the methane from 11 years ago is gone, while the methane from 111 years ago is still there. Along with all the co2 that's been added since.

I think that you meant to say that the CO2 from 111 years ago is still there.

And yes, methane is bad, but only for a short while. It still could be a major factor in raising the average temperature of the world. One thing to remember is that even if we cut all production of CO2 today that warming would still go on for a decade or more. With our current levels we are nowhere near the new equilibrium temperature yet.

 

[loveofourlord]

2012, 2014-15 were polar vortex cycles. This disturbed the global warming movie title so it was modified to climate change. The climate changes, period. Too many feedback cycles. The question as to whether other types of energy sources are being cultivated well they are if you watch enough Utube. It's whether they can get on the market & stay there without going belly-up. E.g. we might see in some areas where there is space several hundred acres of solar panels or wind turbines. But it has to be extensive to contribute to the grid-aka 100 is insufficient. You need space & it should be up to the energy companies to do the R&D. Again proximity to source makes the best fit. A 30% occupation of the grid would be considered good progress.

You do know that the polar vortex was CAUSED by climate change right? The higher then normal temperatures caused the jet stream to go south, pulling normal temperatures for the arctic farther south then normal.

 

[Subduction Zone]

This is easily explained by c02 starts things going, but as the temperature increases the seas get hotter causing them to release more c02, forest fires become more prevalent and such increasing c02. it's not that the co2 is lagging, it's that the temperature increase adds more to the system that makes c02 increase.

Yes, feedback is a major factor in AGW. The good news is that fossil fuels will be replaced not due to government regulations but due to economics. Solar is perhaps the cheapest energy there is right now and wind is not that far behind. And when it comes to cars for gear heads the most important stat is 0 to 60 or 0 to 100. There are very few places where one can drive at ridiculous speeds and it is very hard to beat moderately priced electric cars when one keeps speed under 100.

 

[loveofourlord]

I think that you meant to say that the CO2 from 111 years ago is still there.

And yes, methane is bad, but only for a short while. It still could be a major factor in raising the average temperature of the world. One thing to remember is that even if we cut all production of CO2 today that warming would still go on for a decade or more. With our current levels we are nowhere near the new equilibrium temperature yet.

oops yeah I meant co2, what I get for trying to post right before bed hehe.
Plus the increase in temperature would cause more of the co2 from plants, permafrost, and oceans to increase.

I've heard a few times people talk about why bother we can't stop it, well you can't stop the runaway train from hitting the station, but if you start slowing it down you can maybe evacuate more people and cause less damage.