Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

greatcloudlives · Apr 21, 2020

The past ten thousand years have seen four other warmings besides this modern warming. The Roman warming the medieval warming and the two Holocene maximums.

Next month we will see what happens with the satellite temperature. Either it's going to go up stay the same or go down. Then we will know wheather the temperature will have another pause and level out or what.

Hans Blaster · Apr 21, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
The past ten thousand years have seen four other warmings besides this modern warming. The Roman warming the medieval warming and the two Holocene maximums.

Next month we will see what happens with the satellite temperature. Either it's going to go up stay the same or go down. Then we will know wheather the temperature will have another pause and level out or what.

Pardon me for not knowing, is there some big data set release planned for May, or are we just talking about adding one more month to the existing data?

greatcloudlives · Apr 21, 2020

One more month but it is very important to see if it goes up or levels off or goes down. So we can know what to expect in the future. If this is just another warming like all the other warmings or not.

greatcloudlives · Apr 21, 2020

See the graph from this website, www.royspencer.com

greatcloudlives · Apr 21, 2020

Type in your search engine-

Latest global temps Spencer PhD.

Hans Blaster · Apr 21, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
One more month but it is very important to see if it goes up or levels off or goes down. So we can know what to expect in the future. If this is just another warming like all the other warmings or not.

So just one more month of data then?

Hans Blaster · Apr 21, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
See the graph from this website, www.royspencer.com

I really don't care what a guy who sells houses thinks.

sjastro · Apr 21, 2020

Hans Blaster said:
I really don't care what a guy who sells houses thinks.

Roy must be a polymath; anyone who can sell houses and debunk climate science at the same time must be very talented.

Hans Blaster · Apr 21, 2020

sjastro said:
Roy must be a polymath; anyone who can sell houses and debunk climate science at the same time must be very talented.

Is it too much to ask for links that actually point to the right thing?

greatcloudlives · Apr 22, 2020

The satellite graphs I not rounded off going from high point to high point like the ground data recievers do from NASA and NOAA. The satellite graphs plot and are updated using new data every month. They show all the ups and downs with new data every.month. That is why I trust that there is no cherry picking and fudging like the ground data recievers do.

I am certain that the science for climate change is and needs to be updated and debated constantly.

The basic idea of or theroy of agw has always been In question that is why it's only a theroy
. thanks

greatcloudlives · Apr 22, 2020

The reason I am keeping my eye on the teamperature graphs especially the satellite graphs is because this modern warming is so far similar to the other warmings we have had in the past. This warming is so far not quite as warm as the other warmings especially the Holocene maximums. It's a familiar pattern though, a rapid rise in temperature (ten years), then a levelling off for hundredths of years, usually followed by a cooler period. So time will tell if we can see any difference between the five warmings we have had.

lordjeff · Apr 22, 2020

Electric batteries are not the cure. 1st-even Michael Moore is just realizing. You have to recharge the battery. If all of us had to recharge, that means the grid is working around the clock to recharge; in fact b/c of the overload, the system will be stressed & will run slower. People will then be forced to build their life around recharging at what time. Now where does electricity come from: it comes mostly from coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, & nuclear. So there are still some hydrocarbons in there. Next problem is where to place all battery waste as these are good sized batteries. Still a problem is what I'll call the China Syndrome. Big blizzard takes place. Governor decides to send all workers home from work & closes down all businesses, agencies, schools, retail, etc so that DOT can get out to plow. So everyone drives carefully in the blizzard. Well the charge only takes you so far in the traffic congestion. Cars begin run out of juice & get stuck on highway en masse. Now tell me who is going to rescue the motorists in what are potentially hypothermic conditions & then who is going to rescue the lines of cars?

lordjeff · Apr 22, 2020

Hans Blaster said:
Plastics are not the source of our CO2 problem. sequestration and scrubbing aren't beyond the testing/pilot phase. Non-fossil fuel electricity can be used for ground transportation.

But I really have to wonder what this discussion is to you. It seems like its just some sort of generic political topic. I try several times to demonstrate or enlighten on CO2 as a real greenhouse gas (and the most important one at that) and you either completely fail to comprehend or decide to ignore the replies and throw out irrelevancies.

To recap the recent part of this thread:

CO2 does not have a chemical limiting at conditions like in our atmosphere. H2O does.
It's the partial pressure of CO2 that sets the "strength" of the CO2 greenhouse effect.
No one (but you) said anything about a Venus-type situation, nor did we imply it.
You've been trying to down play anthropogenic CO2 since you joined this thread 8 weeks ago.

I simply don't believe that a single gas can propel a whole climate that's all. Anthropogenic CO2 simply can't facilitate a whole climate given the nature of the design of our planet & our atmosphere.

lordjeff · Apr 22, 2020

Strathos said:
So I suppose you have a more accurate estimate then?

People have to be foolish to think planet Earth is going to end in 12 years or a 100 years. The course of the planet is contingent on the nature of the Sun. Our Sun is considered to be a mid-age yellow dwarf star. It is also unusual in that it is not a binary. The infant stage of stars is such that they are not at their most luminous. The Sun uses the H to He fusion cycle. As it ages in the next 5 billion years, it will begin to use up that hydrogen & then eventually resort to the helium. There will be a battle between the forces of gravity & shell expansion. Shell expansion will take the nod & expand the diameter of the star into a red giant. Red here meaning cooler, bright, giving off more of the longwave radiation. It will move off the Main Sequence. Eventually it will run out juice & just go poof, shrinking to a white dwarf, surrounded by lots of gaseous clouds in what is called a planetary nebula. The Sun will not supernova-lacks the genetics. The giant phase of the star will push its diameter out very far-definitely it will gobble up Venus, likely Earth, possibly Mars. Oceans & life will just vaporize.

lordjeff · Apr 22, 2020

There was a medieval warm period we know about that. There have been warm periods the major one being in the Hadean/Archaen Eons. We were soup back then.

Strathos · Apr 22, 2020

lordjeff said:
People have to be foolish to think planet Earth is going to end in 12 years or a 100 years.

No one said it was. The statement was that in 12 years, it would be too late to reverse the warming trend. Even in an absolute worst case scenario, the world wouldn't 'end'. It would just get a lot less pleasant for humans.

Hans Blaster · Apr 22, 2020

lordjeff said:
I simply don't believe that a single gas can propel a whole climate that's all. Anthropogenic CO2 simply can't facilitate a whole climate given the nature of the design of our planet & our atmosphere.

And that's the problem, you are unwilling to accept the scientific result. It's not a matter of whether the data is sufficient, or not, you've just declared that you'll reject the answer no matter how much data there is and no matter how clear the impact is. This nullifies your value in this discussion.

(The Earth and it's atmosphere aren't designed anyway. It just accumulated.)

Hans Blaster · Apr 22, 2020

lordjeff said:
People have to be foolish to think planet Earth is going to end in 12 years or a 100 years.

Climate change isn't about the end of the Earth or even the extinction of all life. The Earth will survive the next millennium and so will life, but the far more (self-centered) question, is how can humanity sustain itself without changes to our CO2 impact in the near-term.

lordjeff said:
The course of the planet is contingent on the nature of the Sun. Our Sun is considered to be a mid-age yellow dwarf star. It is also unusual in that it is not a binary. The infant stage of stars is such that they are not at their most luminous. The Sun uses the H to He fusion cycle. As it ages in the next 5 billion years, it will begin to use up that hydrogen & then eventually resort to the helium. There will be a battle between the forces of gravity & shell expansion. Shell expansion will take the nod & expand the diameter of the star into a red giant. Red here meaning cooler, bright, giving off more of the longwave radiation. It will move off the Main Sequence. Eventually it will run out juice & just go poof, shrinking to a white dwarf, surrounded by lots of gaseous clouds in what is called a planetary nebula. The Sun will not supernova-lacks the genetics. The giant phase of the star will push its diameter out very far-definitely it will gobble up Venus, likely Earth, possibly Mars. Oceans & life will just vaporize.

This is largely correct (a little loose on terminology), but irrelevant to the climate change questions. We know what the sun has been doing for the last few decades and that's part of why we know that we (not the sun) is responsible for the changes in our climate.

Hans Blaster · Apr 22, 2020

lordjeff said:
Electric batteries are not the cure. 1st-even Michael Moore is just realizing. You have to recharge the battery. If all of us had to recharge, that means the grid is working around the clock to recharge; in fact b/c of the overload, the system will be stressed & will run slower. People will then be forced to build their life around recharging at what time. Now where does electricity come from: it comes mostly from coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, & nuclear. So there are still some hydrocarbons in there.

Cure to everything, no, but for ground transportation, probably.

Having everyone charge up their cars at night plugged into there home charger would be a *good* thing. Much of our electric power comes from "base plants" that take a long time to change their outputs (coal, nuclear, steady wind sources, and to a lesser extent hydroelectric). Because there is less demand for electricity in the evening (and weekends) due to lower commercial and industrial activity, there is effectively excess power available outside normal working hours. Slow charging of electric cars would be a good use of this baseline power.

[Oh, and coal isn't a hydrocarbon, there's no hydrogen in it, just carbon, and it's dead as a power source anyway.]

Ophiolite · Apr 22, 2020

lordjeff said:
People have to be foolish to think planet Earth is going to end in 12 years or a 100 years.

At times it seems, for the greater part of humanity, that being foolish is their superpower.

Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

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