The Year of the Linux Desktop

[skalle]

When will it be? Has it passed? Is it now? Is it yet to come? Will people finally grow tired of Microsoft's shenanigans and flee to the light this year?

 

[Wookiee]

Probably not likely:

• Windows 10 is more or less a similar interface to what people are familiar to (after 8)
• It runs reasonably well
• Most end users aren't aware there's an option other than Apple, let alone how to do it themselves
• It requires some degree of retraining and access to people familiar with the distro they are using
• While there are (mostly) acceptable alternatives, and Wine does a good job, many applications people use are Windows only
• Most end users will probably find frustrations in an unfamiliar system
• Most end users buy off-the-shelf brand name products that already come with Windows
• The amount of choice in flavours is off-putting to a lot of people
• Many things require configuring out of the box from distro to distro (e.g. DVD playback in Ubuntu)
• Most people are unwilling to accept change (which is why you still have older people with XP... or older...)

 

[skalle]

Oh yeah, the OP was pretty tongue-in-cheek. It's a running joke in the Linux community... "Oh yeah, this is the year of the Linux desktop!" Probably isn't ever going to happen, for reasons you listed. I think it's quite well enough that the majority of people are using the Linux kernel in their phones, a sound majority of web servers are running some form of Linux distro, and even Chromebooks are essentially heavily modified Linux distros... that's as close as we'll get. If I recall, desktop usage is still hovering around 1.8%, with the vast majority still on Windows 7. I think it's absolutely ridiculous that a household name like Ubuntu is still shipping without libdvdcss when Mint has been doing it for years... unfortunately, for those even moderately in the know, Mint had their security hiccup, and many people in the community haven't forgotten and are steering newbies clear of it. So what's left? Well, Fedora and Debian tend more toward the Stallman side of things, which will result in even more irking of former Windows users when half their hardware is unsupported... yep, I think it's about as good as it's gonna get right now. The best I can do is steer people toward Mint and hope they like what they see.

 

[Neostarwcc]

Since Microsoft is going to end support for Windows 10 in around 2019 or 2020 (I forget) and isn't making a new operating system I think it's possible to see Linux become more mainstream than it is now.

I personally, don't buy into Microsoft's campaign of "Windows 10 will be the OS of the future and the only OS you'll ever need." when, around 4 years in the future Windows will not longer be supported and probably between 8-10 years It'll become an outdated, unupdated, insecure, hunk of garbage full of hackers and cybercrime.

I get it, Microsoft has been making Operating systems since the 80's and probably is sick of making them by now.

But, in order for the idea to work, Microsoft is going to have to provide support, security updates, service packs, ...etc for decades if not centuries depending on how long Microsoft exists and Windows continues to be the top Operating System.

They can't just release an OS, and discontinue it 4 years later and not have any ambitions to release a new OS or leave it unupdated. If they want Windows 10 to become the OS of the future and the ONLY OS anyone's ever going to need, they need to keep it updated for forever.

I haven't used Linux since I was like, 18 years old. If it had more widespread support and wasn't such a pain to use I'd use it as a secondary OS instead of Windows 7.

 

[Vince53]

In an alternate viewpoint, Linux is winning. Between them, Android and Chrome are on more devices that Windows, and they are both based on the Linux kernel.

Incidentally, Microsoft wil drop support of Windows 7 in 2020.

 

[skalle]

Since Microsoft is going to end support for Windows 10 in around 2019 or 2020 (I forget) and isn't making a new operating system I think it's possible to see Linux become more mainstream than it is now.

I think you're thinking of Windows 7. Windows 10 is going to be their flagship "software as a service" OS. In the future, I anticipate you'll have to pay subscription fees if you want to continue using it. This is what they mean when Microsoft says that Windows 10 is their last operating system.

I haven't used Linux since I was like, 18 years old. If it had more widespread support and wasn't such a pain to use I'd use it as a secondary OS instead of Windows 7.

It's gotten much, much easier over the years. I started on Fedora Core in early 2004, and I jumped onboard with Ubuntu with their first release of Warty Warthog 4.10 in late 2004. I might even still have the free disc Canonical sent me somewhere. Things are certainly much different now, though. I just wish more "beginner" Linux distros were rolling-release; every time I tried to upgrade Ubuntu to the latest version back in the day, it broke. New users aren't going to put up with that.

...and I use Arch because I like my operating systems to be a pain.

 

[skalle]

In an alternate viewpoint, Linux is winning. Between them, Android and Chrome are on more devices that Windows, and they are both based on the Linux kernel.

Well, yeah, I mentioned that. It just depends on how you look at it. Some people are waiting for Linux to overtake Microsoft in the traditional desktop environment, and it just won't happen. Microsoft sure is working hard to try to make it happen, though, what with angering half their users with their forced upgrades. (Yes, yes, you can stop it, but that is beyond the capabilities of the average user out there.)

Incidentally, Microsoft wil drop support of Windows 7 in 2020.

At my work, there are quite a few machines still running XP -- and one running MS-DOS on a 486! -- so I don't think that will stop a lot of people from continuing to use it, unless Microsoft decides to close the current loopholes and force everyone into 10...

 

[Willie T]

Isn't it kind of futile to expect change when you openly admit changing is beyond the average user? I have tried several alternatives to MS applications. And while they do work, by comparison to MS, they just barely work, while MS products WORK intuitively and fully.

 

[skalle]

Which applications are you referring to?

 

[Wookiee]

Since Microsoft is going to end support for Windows 10 in around 2019 or 2020 (I forget) and isn't making a new operating system I think it's possible to see Linux become more mainstream than it is now.

I personally, don't buy into Microsoft's campaign of "Windows 10 will be the OS of the future and the only OS you'll ever need." when, around 4 years in the future Windows will not longer be supported and probably between 8-10 years It'll become an outdated, unupdated, insecure, hunk of garbage full of hackers and cybercrime.

I get it, Microsoft has been making Operating systems since the 80's and probably is sick of making them by now.

But, in order for the idea to work, Microsoft is going to have to provide support, security updates, service packs, ...etc for decades if not centuries depending on how long Microsoft exists and Windows continues to be the top Operating System.

They can't just release an OS, and discontinue it 4 years later and not have any ambitions to release a new OS or leave it unupdated. If they want Windows 10 to become the OS of the future and the ONLY OS anyone's ever going to need, they need to keep it updated for forever.

I haven't used Linux since I was like, 18 years old. If it had more widespread support and wasn't such a pain to use I'd use it as a secondary OS instead of Windows 7.

As Skalle pointed out, you have the wrong idea. Windows 10 is the last "version" but they're constantly going to release builds and updates. They're not just going to end support. As Vince pointed out, Windows 7 is ending support in 2020.

Which applications are you referring to?

I'm going to guess Libre/OpenOffice is one of them; and in that regard it is pretty crippled compared to what Office can do these days - that said, if I wasn't getting a free license from my university I would still be using Libre Office.

That said, if he's referring to Outlook then I would completely and utterly disagree.

 

[topcare]

Oh yeah, the OP was pretty tongue-in-cheek. It's a running joke in the Linux community... "Oh yeah, this is the year of the Linux desktop!" Probably isn't ever going to happen, for reasons you listed. I think it's quite well enough that the majority of people are using the Linux kernel in their phones, a sound majority of web servers are running some form of Linux distro, and even Chromebooks are essentially heavily modified Linux distros... that's as close as we'll get. If I recall, desktop usage is still hovering around 1.8%, with the vast majority still on Windows 7. I think it's absolutely ridiculous that a household name like Ubuntu is still shipping without libdvdcss when Mint has been doing it for years... unfortunately, for those even moderately in the know, Mint had their security hiccup, and many people in the community haven't forgotten and are steering newbies clear of it. So what's left? Well, Fedora and Debian tend more toward the Stallman side of things, which will result in even more irking of former Windows users when half their hardware is unsupported... yep, I think it's about as good as it's gonna get right now. The best I can do is steer people toward Mint and hope they like what they see.

There is PCLinuxOS which is pretty nice for newbies. I use Elementary OS myself

 

[freezerman2000]

There is PCLinuxOS which is pretty nice for newbies. I use Elementary OS myself

SuperX-Grace is easy to use also..I use it for online things and windows for the games.

 

[skalle]

I'm going to guess Libre/OpenOffice is one of them; and in that regard it is pretty crippled compared to what Office can do these days - that said, if I wasn't getting a free license from my university I would still be using Libre Office.

Can't really speak to that. I don't need any of the features that so many people complain are missing. Maybe I'm a simpleton.

That said, if he's referring to Outlook then I would completely and utterly disagree.

We're using that cloud-based Office365 nonsense at work... infuriating. Talk about crippled.

 

[Wookiee]

We're using that cloud-based Office365 nonsense at work... infuriating. Talk about crippled.

Our head office is slowly migrating to Google Apps for Education. We currently use Office 2010 primarily, but no one really wants to switch to Office 365. Across the schools I work at, staff are becoming more comfortable using the Google Apps, which is good. There are things I don't like about it, but if the choice is that or Office 365, I totally understand the decision to go that way.

 

[Neostarwcc]

Actually, no I was referring to Windows 10. Mainstream support is being discontinued October 13th, 2020.

Which means they will stop making updates for Windows 10 on that date. It's been set at that date since prior to W10's release.

Extended support will end on October 14th, 2025

Which means that you will no longer be able to call them for tech support on Windows 10 and you'll have to either figure out your problem on your own, or call another company. This, is another issue with Windows 10's future.

But, you're right extended support on Windows 7 will be ending in 2020 as well, on January 14th

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/lifecycle


Even if it ends in 2025 and you guys are right, 10 years is not long enough for Microsoft to continue to update an OS that's going to be the last OS. By 2030 there would be so many security threats out there, like there are so many security threats out there for the older Windows OS's like Windows XP which was discontinued back in 2009. In fact, Microsoft's made a statement on the subject, "If you get hacked while using an older OS It's not our problem." Which, is an unfair statement in It's right. Not everyone wants to use Windows 10 even though, I personally use and like it.

Windows XP and Windows 7 were both Fantastic operating systems and we as customers should be able to feel sure and safe while using "Older" Operating Systems. It doesn't take much time and money to continue to update these OS's especially if Microsoft only provided support for 2-3 of them and W10 is really the last OS.

And then, there'd be the large problem in Windows 10's case of. It being a CURRENT OS and Microsoft not releasing updates for it. They couldn't say "You use an older OS It's your problem not ours" anymore. It would be current technology and people keeping up with the latest times.

Not to mention new technology is being released every year by top companies such as ASUS, AMD, Or Intel. That Microsoft would have to continue providing support for. For example, Skylake processors came out a few years back that were cutting edge technology that ASUS had to provide motherboards for and Windows 8/10 had to provide support for the USB 3.1,Thunderbolt 3 techologies, and all of the other Advantages to Skylake Processors.

The "nexgen" processors will have to continue being supported by Windows 10 if It's truly going to be Microsoft's last OS and the "only" OS out there. There's no way for Microsoft to get around it.

Microsoft is going to have to make some smart moves in the future or, they're not going to be the top OS company anymore and I can forsee several lawsuits in their future if they don't continue to provide updates for their "Latest" and "Only" OS.

Microsoft is going to have to keep releasing Operating Systems if It's to survive like It's been surviving since the 80's on or continue to update and provide support for Windows 10 for the rest of the companies lifetime if the company is to survive there's no way around it.

Making W10 the last OS is NOT a bad idea, if Microsoft markets it well and continues to provide customer support and updates for it. it IS a great operating system despite It's faults.

If not, maybe Linux would be providing those needed updates for people or maybe, Microsoft will continue to update W10 Past Oct 13th, 2020. Only time will tell. But, as of the moment Microsoft plans to stop making Updates on October 13th, 2020 and hasn't made a public statement about it yet. As far as I know anyway. I'm sure It's been discussed among the higher ups at Microsoft and the company is aware of the problem. Because, the internet is kind of in an uproar over the issue at the moment, I'm not the only one who's afraid of the issue. It's a pretty large customer concern.

 

[skalle]

Actually, no I was referring to Windows 10. Mainstream support is being discontinued October 13th, 2020.

I'm afraid you are quite mistaken. Please read the notes on the following page:
http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/lifecycle

Microsoft will no longer offer support for Windows 10 machines that refuse updates (paradoxically). If you wish to receive support past 2020, you must update Windows 10 according to Microsoft's update release schedule. If you don't, you're on your own. As I said above, Microsoft is moving toward a "software as service" model, which is why they're saying Windows 10 will be its last OS... it's not that they're quitting the business of operating systems; it's that they are going to lock future users into going whatever they direction they see fit, lest they lose all support and become victims to whatever security holes exist. (And there are many. And they can't be fixed without Microsoft's help, because no one except Microsoft devs can look at the source code.)

This is why I say Linux may pick up support in the coming years, though outright domination of the market is extremely unlikely.

 

[Qyöt27]

I'd say it's more likely we switch to the other YOLD before we see the Year of the Linux Desktop. Maybe by the next time St. Tib's Day rolls around.

 

[Qyöt27]

On a more serious note, though,

I just wish more "beginner" Linux distros were rolling-release; every time I tried to upgrade Ubuntu to the latest version back in the day, it broke.

I learned my lesson with doing in-place upgrades for Ubuntu with, I think it was Dapper->Edgy. Not necessarily that it broke, but turned the whole thing into a mess when I got back in. So only fresh installs from there on out, which also has the benefit of clearing out the cobwebs and only keeping the actually-used applications.


Maybe by the time Win7 support ends, ReactOS will be capable enough to handle a mass exodus from Windows land. Even though I view the vast majority of Windows 10 outrage as conspiracy-minded FUD with no value whatsoever, if it works to get people to switch to something FOSS, then it serves a purpose I guess.

 

[Vince53]

I installed Linux 15.10 (Wiley Werewolf) today, and soon was asked to upgrade to 16.4. When I tried, it told me that I am missing a file.

 

[nChrist]

I installed Linux 15.10 (Wiley Werewolf) today, and soon was asked to upgrade to 16.4. When I tried, it told me that I am missing a file.

I'm hoping this problem is resolved quickly without too many pains. I'm looking forward to hearing about your experiences with Linux.