The Failure of European Intelligence

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Red Gold

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One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.
This is the title:

The Failure of European Intelligence​


EUROPEAN!

So for you the British are not European?
 
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Maybe God knows everything.
But Secret Services are not God.

I find it so very cheap to accuse Secret Services that they are not God.

They did not need to know everything to know that something major was going on. The British and Americans got it this time. The Germans and the French clearly did not. Given that this has cost the economy hundreds of billions of euros and massively inconvenienced ordinary Germans vis a vis the cost of living and possibly completely overthrown the way that Germany does business for a generation to come this is not a minor issue. Yes, we can hold intelligence services to account. They serve German voters like you and me and the national interests of Germany. They failed here in a major way as did the political class generally. Things need to change so that they do things better next time round!!
 
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Nithavela

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They did not need to know everything to know that something major was going on. The British and Americans got it this time. The Germans and the French clearly did not. Given that this has cost the economy hundreds of billions of euros and massively inconvenienced ordinary Germans vis a vis the cost of living and possibly completely overthrown the way that Germany does business for a generation to come this is not a minor issue. Yes, we can hold intelligence services to account. They serve German voters like you and me and the national interests of Germany. They failed here in a major way as did the political class generally. Things need to change so that they do things better next time round!!
I'm sure things will get better once people vote the CDU back into office, where they were 16 years.
 
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I'm sure things will get better once people vote the CDU back into office, where they were 16 years?

I am hoping the CDU undergoes a major refresh in opposition and comes back ready for office at the next election. But they have their own share of the blame for the current crisis. To be fit for office they need to be committed to the 2% defense spending and have a proper perspective on strategic supply chains generally in all areas of the economy but also including energy and food. Unfortunately, it seems the Greens are determined to close down the nuclear power stations before the next election. We need an economically efficient way to produce core electric supply. The purge of Russian spies, professional idiots, and inept and slow bureaucrats is also a major priority for the reform of the military and intelligence apparatus.
 
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Nithavela

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I am hoping the CDU undergoes a major refresh in opposition and comes back ready for office at the next election.
Under Merz? Unlikely. They seem busy blaming the current government for the things they screwed up.
 
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FireDragon76

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Yes, but they are in alliance with a country that has got these and still did not listen. Why? Did the reaction to Trump make them all deaf? Did they just not have the sense to see good intelligence coming from the Americans and indeed the British (post BREXIT)?

During much of the past six years, the US has shown far less interest in cooperating with transatlantic partners. If you want somebody to blame, look to Trump's isolationist and self-serving politics, and basically telling Europeans to fend for themselves.
 
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