The Failure of European Intelligence

[mindlight]

One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.

Possible reasons for discussion:

1) POLITICAL COMPROMISE
An ex-SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom. The SPD and Green parties are vulnerable to anti-American, anti-Military, and pro-Russian sentiments that dull their instincts. The Ost-Politik strategy of rapprochement with Russia made it vulnerable to see the best in Putin's motives. Merkel spoke Russian and did nothing to prepare Germany economically or militarily for this crisis.

2) ECONOMIC EXPOSURE AND LACK OF STRATEGIC INSIGHT
The Russians owned key parts of the storage and refinery infrastructure in Germany for example. German gas storage was steadily run down over the time period before the election making them vulnerable to Russian leverage. Reuters commented on this in December. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas despite the strategic risks. This was obvious as early as 2008 and well before 2014 Maidan yet nothing was done after Maidan.
Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end
Germany works to cut Russian control of critical energy facilities
Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

We were discussing this vulnerability to Russian gas and Arab oil more than 10 years ago

Approaching Energy Crisis

3) EDUCATION/ THOUGHT SYSTEMS
This is the hardest factor to argue but I believe it is fundamental to the blindness of top operatives and political elites here. There is a lack of discussion in European schools on the basic assumptions of modern science for example. There is no challenge from a creationist movement here. This uniformity may make Europeans less open to challenging assumptions and checking the validity of observations. They are epistemologically blind. The Intelligence community is a product of elite schools that tow the party lines on all the assumptions of modern politics and culture. There is a lack of misfits who rub against the grain in the intelligence community because there is a built-in intolerance of such people and they are usually regarded as the problem rather than the answer. Or worse in some cases, the words of completely inappropriate people are taken over the words of those who speak the truth. This lack of wisdom is obvious to an outsider but not to the intelligence communities themselves. AntiAmericanism and European arrogance led to filtering out of strong American intelligence coming their way.

4) LACK OF FUNDING
The BND has a budget of about a billion Euros and the DGSE one of about €750m compared to American spending of more than 80 billion (Bigger than Germany's defense budget).
Also, I wonder in this current conflict if Russian agents did not actually steer the conversation away from the obvious. The agencies need reform, refunding and a systematic purge it seems.

Why did European intelligence fail to predict this war and how did Europe become so strategically vulnerable to Russia? What can be done to fix this moving forwards?

 

[trophy33]

One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.

Possible reasons for discussion:

1) POLITICAL COMPROMISE
An ex-SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom. The SPD and Green parties are vulnerable to anti-American, anti-Military, and pro-Russian sentiments that dull their instincts. The Ost-Politik strategy of rapprochement with Russia made it vulnerable to see the best in Putin's motives. Merkel spoke Russian and did nothing to prepare Germany economically or militarily for this crisis.

2) ECONOMIC EXPOSURE AND LACK OF STRATEGIC INSIGHT
The Russians owned key parts of the storage and refinery infrastructure in Germany for example. German gas storage was steadily run down over the time period before the election making them vulnerable to Russian leverage. Reuters commented on this in December. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas despite the strategic risks. This was obvious as early as 2008 and well before 2014 Maidan yet nothing was done after Maidan.
Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end
Germany works to cut Russian control of critical energy facilities
Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

3) EDUCATION/ THOUGHT SYSTEMS
This is the hardest factor to argue but I believe it is fundamental to the blindness of top operatives and political elites here. There is a lack of discussion in European schools on the basic assumptions of modern science for example. There is no challenge from a creationist movement here. This uniformity may make Europeans less open to challenging assumptions and checking the validity of observations. They are epistemologically blind. The Intelligence community is a product of elite schools that tow the party lines on all the assumptions of modern politics and culture. There is a lack of misfits who rub against the grain in the intelligence community because there is a built-in intolerance of such people and they are usually regarded as the problem rather than the answer. Or worse in some cases, the words of completely inappropriate people are taken over the words of those who speak the truth. This lack of wisdom is obvious to an outsider but not to the intelligence communities themselves. AntiAmericanism and European arrogance led to filtering out of strong American intelligence coming their way.

4) LACK OF FUNDING
The BND has a budget of about a billion Euros and the DGSE one of about €750m compared to American spending of more than 80 billion (Bigger than Germany's defense budget).
Also, I wonder in this current conflict if Russian agents did not actually steer the conversation away from the obvious. The agencies need reform, refunding and a systematic purge it seems.

Why did European intelligence fail to predict this war and how did Europe become so strategically vulnerable to Russia? What can be done to fix this moving forwards?

I think the explanation will be more simple. I doubt French or Germans have so many and so good spy satellites as the USA, for example. If any.

 

[mindlight]

I think the explanation will be more simple. I doubt French or Germans have so many and so good spy satellites as the USA, for example.

Yes, but they are in alliance with a country that has got these and still did not listen. Why? Did the reaction to Trump make them all deaf? Did they just not have the sense to see good intelligence coming from the Americans and indeed the British (post BREXIT)?

 

[trophy33]

Yes, but they are in alliance with a country that has got these and still did not listen. Why? Did the reaction to Trump make them all deaf? Did they just not have the sense to see good intelligence coming from the Americans and indeed the British (post BREXIT)?

Hard to say, because the reasons are not made public.

On the other hand, the failure of the Russian intelligence and army is even worse.

 

[mindlight]

On the other hand, the failure of the Russian intelligence and army is even worse.

Oh, that is a whole other thread, and yes I agree on that. But I guess the SVR department that handled the German and French in the preamble to this war did a far better job than the military intelligence people who assessed Ukrainian military effectiveness, the Russian generals who commentated on their own troop's effectiveness, and the planners who planned a Blitzkrieg with an army still stuck in the Soviet era of Big Front Steam roller tactics and armed with old-style Soviet equipment. It is the British and American intelligence agencies that come out looking good in this conflict and indeed their ongoing sharing of intelligence is making a massive difference in this conflict.

 

[Stabat Mater dolorosa]

The problem some of us Europeans have with American intelligence is that its highly influenced by a unprecedented paranoia not found elsewhere in the "free world". I mean, c'mon, your government even spies on its own friends. A few years ago it was revealed that the US had spied on german chancellor Angela Merkel for years, going back to way before she entered her post as head of the german state. I remember the news popping as it was yesterday, you also had secret spy networks in Norway. The spies blacklisted lawful Norwegian citizens from entering the US based on nothing more than their social media activity and their associations in civil society, all of which was totally legit. When you spy so heavily on your own friends and ordinary people in friendly countries it soon creates a feeling of untrustworthiness.
How could we know and trust US intelligence this time out? How to separate it from the usual US' paranoia?

Besides, we create the world with our discourses aswell and it would be ignorant not to consider the US rhetorics as possible fuel to the Russian world narrative. In the end, western alarms about the invation can itself have pushed Kreml to go through with the option of invading Ukraine.
Im not so sure that it had to happen. Pressure and distrust combined with degradation may have triggered Putin to choose the wrong answer to a brewing conflict.

Why dont we take US intelligence for good fish? The answer is: for a lot of different reasons.

 

[trophy33]

The problem some of us Europeans have with American intelligence is that its highly influenced by a unprecedented paranoia not found elsewhere in the "free world". I mean, c'mon, your government even spies on its own friends. A few years ago it was revealed that the US had spied on german chancellor Angela Merkel for years, going back to way before she entered her post as head of the german state. I remember the news popping as it was yesterday, you also had secret spy networks in Norway. The spies blacklisted lawful Norwegian citizens from entering the US based on nothing more than their social media activity and their associations in civil society, all of which was totally legit. When you spy so heavily on your own friends and ordinary people in friendly countries it soon creates a feeling of untrustworthiness.
How could we know and trust US intelligence this time out? How to separate it from the usual US' paranoia?

Besides, we create the world with our discourses aswell and it would be ignorant not to consider the US rhetorics as possible fuel to the Russian world narrative. In the end, western alarms about the invation can itself have pushed Kreml to go through with the option of invading Ukraine.
Im not so sure that it had to happen. Pressure and distrust combined with degradation may have triggered Putin to choose the wrong answer to a brewing conflict.

Why dont we take US intelligence for good fish? The answer is: for a lot of different reasons.

Its true that there may be a possible mistrust in Europe when the USA says "Russia wants to attack", similar to when we hear Russia saying "NATO wants to attack us".

But the question is why the EU itself did not have a solid intelligence.

 

[Robban]

Its true that there may be a possible mistrust in Europe when the USA says "Russia wants to attack", similar to when we hear Russia saying "NATO wants to attack us".

But the question is why the EU itself did not have a solid intelligence.

The bully telling other countries who they cannot do buisness with and if they do there will be sanctions imposed upon them.

Germany was very indignant when Trump threatened
with sanction anyone who dared to use Nordstream 2.

What caused the 180 turnaround by Germany, overnight?

Americas ridiculous "Buy from us" is why there will be many difficulties.

 

[Andrewn]

Ukraine: Germany accuses Russia of 'war crimes' over Bucha deaths — live updates | DW | 03.04.2022

 

[Robban]

Ukraine: Germany accuses Russia of 'war crimes' over Bucha deaths — live updates | DW | 03.04.2022

It is not clear what is what.

If they are Azov fighters they have to fight to the death,

if they were to surrender they would be shot.

Russia is not playing games.

There is reports of Azov torturing civilians, cutting off their hands and inscribing Nazi emblems on them.

In Odesa a few years ago 42 Russian civilians were
were burnt alive, and Russia knows who the guilty are
and they will avenge.

All according to "media"

 

[trophy33]

.

 

[mindlight]

The problem some of us Europeans have with American intelligence is that its highly influenced by a unprecedented paranoia not found elsewhere in the "free world".

What is the difference between an informed fear that a rival is about to invade another country and paranoia that tunes Europeans out? Didn't the Americans communicate good reasons for fear?

I mean, c'mon, your government even spies on its own friends. A few years ago it was revealed that the US had spied on german chancellor Angela Merkel for years, going back to way before she entered her post as head of the german state. I remember the news popping as it was yesterday,

Gerhard Schroeder an ex-Chancellor works for the Russian state through Gazprom. Merkel a Russian speaker from East Germany continued his Ost Politik rapprochement with the Russians. Maybe the Americans did not fully trust the Germans for a season. That said I agree they should not have spied on the Chancellor of Germany.

you also had secret spy networks in Norway. The spies blacklisted lawful Norwegian citizens from entering the US based on nothing more than their social media activity and their associations in civil society, all of which was totally legit. When you spy so heavily on your own friends and ordinary people in friendly countries it soon creates a feeling of untrustworthiness.
How could we know and trust US intelligence this time out? How to separate it from the usual US' paranoia?

We are getting off-topic now. This all sounds like a self-justifying deflection from the matter at hand. Basically, why didn't Europe recognize good intelligence when it saw it? There is of course a link between American Immigration and Visa control and National Security Agencies. Sometimes that link is ludicrous. Banning Iranians but allowing Saudis in when 911 was all about Saudis for instance. But what has that to do with why Europeans could not see what was straight in front of their own faces this February.

Besides, we create the world with our discourses aswell and it would be ignorant not to consider the US rhetorics as possible fuel to the Russian world narrative. In the end, western alarms about the invation can itself have pushed Kreml to go through with the option of invading Ukraine.
Im not so sure that it had to happen. Pressure and distrust combined with degradation may have triggered Putin to choose the wrong answer to a brewing conflict.

Putin has been planning this for years. Keeping the Donbas as an open sore to weaken Ukraine has been a deliberate policy since 2014. The emptying of German gas storage started more than a year ago. His friendly relations with Trump probably delayed matters but it was a Republican George Bush who first suggested Ukrainian membership in NATO so Biden was just putting American policy back into its mainstream with these signals. It was the long-term answer to securing that border with Russia and ending the uncertainty that the Russians were deliberately provoking.

Why don't we take US intelligence for good fish? The answer is: for a lot of different reasons.

The answer given fails to address the fundamental failure of European intelligence agencies to recognize good intelligence when they saw it over a period of a decade or more.

 

[Aussie Pete]

One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.

Possible reasons for discussion:

1) POLITICAL COMPROMISE
An ex-SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom. The SPD and Green parties are vulnerable to anti-American, anti-Military, and pro-Russian sentiments that dull their instincts. The Ost-Politik strategy of rapprochement with Russia made it vulnerable to see the best in Putin's motives. Merkel spoke Russian and did nothing to prepare Germany economically or militarily for this crisis.

2) ECONOMIC EXPOSURE AND LACK OF STRATEGIC INSIGHT
The Russians owned key parts of the storage and refinery infrastructure in Germany for example. German gas storage was steadily run down over the time period before the election making them vulnerable to Russian leverage. Reuters commented on this in December. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas despite the strategic risks. This was obvious as early as 2008 and well before 2014 Maidan yet nothing was done after Maidan.
Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end
Germany works to cut Russian control of critical energy facilities
Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

We were discussing this vulnerability to Russian gas and Arab oil more than 10 years ago

Approaching Energy Crisis

3) EDUCATION/ THOUGHT SYSTEMS
This is the hardest factor to argue but I believe it is fundamental to the blindness of top operatives and political elites here. There is a lack of discussion in European schools on the basic assumptions of modern science for example. There is no challenge from a creationist movement here. This uniformity may make Europeans less open to challenging assumptions and checking the validity of observations. They are epistemologically blind. The Intelligence community is a product of elite schools that tow the party lines on all the assumptions of modern politics and culture. There is a lack of misfits who rub against the grain in the intelligence community because there is a built-in intolerance of such people and they are usually regarded as the problem rather than the answer. Or worse in some cases, the words of completely inappropriate people are taken over the words of those who speak the truth. This lack of wisdom is obvious to an outsider but not to the intelligence communities themselves. AntiAmericanism and European arrogance led to filtering out of strong American intelligence coming their way.

4) LACK OF FUNDING
The BND has a budget of about a billion Euros and the DGSE one of about €750m compared to American spending of more than 80 billion (Bigger than Germany's defense budget).
Also, I wonder in this current conflict if Russian agents did not actually steer the conversation away from the obvious. The agencies need reform, refunding and a systematic purge it seems.

Why did European intelligence fail to predict this war and how did Europe become so strategically vulnerable to Russia? What can be done to fix this moving forwards?

European intelligence buried their collective heads in the sand and hoped it would all go away. I think also that they were offended because Mr Trump told them the truth - their defence spending was pathetic. So they rejected both that advice and the intelligence that the US was willing to provide, presumably thinking that the US was just trying to do some arm twisting. It's amazing how quickly people forget the lessons of the past.

There is an attitude among the elites that the globalisation of the economy makes war impossible. For example, if China lost access to major markets, its economy would tank. Yet China has taken that risk and has built the world's largest navy, a substantial airforce and a massive army. How that would translate to success in conflict is yet to be shown. Russia's "military might" has been held back by a much smaller Ukrainian force. China is entirely different as are its potential adversaries. It's still not clear if they will risk invading Taiwan.

Every government department should have a "check out chick" on the advisory board. They have more common sense than the elites!

 

[mindlight]

Ukraine: Germany accuses Russia of 'war crimes' over Bucha deaths — live updates | DW | 03.04.2022

The facts that we know thus far, pertaining to Bucha, are that:

1. We have pictures of some bodies, some of them with hands tied behind their backs, and some of which have signs of torture.
2. The dead people appear to have been executed, indicating bullet wounds or blows that might have killed them.
3. Some of the bodies appear to have been booby-trapped but no one has died from any of these traps.
4. We have a denial from the Russian authorities that civilians are being targeted in Ukraine by Russians but there is a claim that Russian intervention has the goal of deNazification. Could that include the shooting of Civilians that stood up to the Russian invasion verbally or physically?
5. We have a Russian war policy with a rationale to reunite the two peoples in their Orthodox historical union which would be sabotaged by a deliberate policy of genocide.
6. The Russians have not been carpet-bombing anywhere
7. There is a pattern of civilian strikes in areas where heavy combat is occurring and there are dead civilian bodies in the places that the Russians have retreated from. There is even video evidence from the Kyiv area of a civilian with his hands up, being killed by Russian soldiers and indeed an elderly woman is also a live witness to that event also. So war crimes are occurring. The question is whether this is a deliberate policy or not and one incident in one place does not prove guilt in Bucha also.
   
8. Third-party witnesses (Not Ukrainians or Russians) are paraded the evidence in Bucha not actual witnesses to any of the events described and are as yet unable to verify any of the accusations made. Though I understand the Ukrainians are working with the Metropolitan Police in London to gain that Third Party verification.
9. It was Chechen troops that held this town

Forensic studies are being performed on these bodies by the Ukrainian police and may reveal clues from the bullets used, any video footage of the crimes available, witness statements, and maybe even DNA evidence.

There are a number of possibilities.

1. The Russians are lying and they killed the civilians. This is a deliberate policy that comes from the top. This then amounts to war crimes and deliberate genocide by the Russian leadership
2. The Russians are lying and they killed the civilians. This was a decision by the local Chechen commanders. This then amounts to war crimes and deliberate genocide by local Chechen troops and commanders.
3. The Ukrainians are misinterpreting or distorting the evidence because it serves a propaganda purpose to exaggerate it.
4. Local Ukrainians fabricated the evidence, killing Russian collaborators in their towns after the Russian forces left and then paraded their bodies to present the impression of murders. Or some other such conspiracy scenario.
5. These were Ukrainian combatants who had aimed weapons at Russian soldiers and who were in civilian clothes. This could be confirmed by checking the forensic evidence as to whether they had fired a weapon.

 

[mindlight]

European intelligence buried their collective heads in the sand and hoped it would all go away. I think also that they were offended because Mr Trump told them the truth - their defence spending was pathetic. So they rejected both that advice and the intelligence that the US was willing to provide, presumably thinking that the US was just trying to do some arm twisting. It's amazing how quickly people forget the lessons of the past.

There is an attitude among the elites that the globalisation of the economy makes war impossible. For example, if China lost access to major markets, its economy would tank. Yet China has taken that risk and has built the world's largest navy, a substantial airforce and a massive army. How that would translate to success in conflict is yet to be shown. Russia's "military might" has been held back by a much smaller Ukrainian force. China is entirely different as are its potential adversaries. It's still not clear if they will risk invading Taiwan.

Every government department should have a "check out chick" on the advisory board. They have more common sense than the elites!

Most European intelligence agencies agreed with Trump that they needed a bigger budget for their activities and that defense spending was inadequate. Indeed most European countries raised their budgets after his legitimate criticisms of being free-riders.

The Ost Politik strategy of rapprochement was not entirely wrong and has succeeded in bringing both countries out of the cold. But it should not have been performed merely for the sake of multinational profits and nor should it have been driven by these corporations and without any strategic security oversight by European nations. Military spending dropped to farcical levels. Germany's exposure to Russia was obvious ten years ago and only deepened after 2014 even after it became clear that Putin's ambitions were greater than his actual mandate. The behavior of atheist Chancellors like Gerhard Schoeder who sold their souls for private enrichment and who have behaved without honor is despicable. Olaf Scholz has rightly distanced himself from this man. But both Russia and China have used the benefits of Western trade to modernize their economies and vamp up their militaries with profits without conducting any serious political reforms. The strategy of empowering autocracies over democracies is not something that will ultimately benefit the West or the wider world. The sanctions imposed on Russia could equally be imposed on China if they invade Taiwan and send a clear message of the economic degradation that could then occur. The Chinese communist party is already riding a tiger and depends on continued economic growth for its survival. If the growth stops it is in major trouble and its more traditional civil strife and warlord kingdoms may well return to plague its unity. Even if China could take Taiwan the cost might yet still be too high for them.

 

[Aussie Pete]

Most European intelligence agencies agreed with Trump that they needed a bigger budget for their activities and that defense spending was inadequate. Indeed most European countries raised their budgets after his legitimate criticisms of being free-riders.

The Ost Politik strategy of rapprochement was not entirely wrong and has succeeded in bringing both countries out of the cold. But it should not have been performed merely for the sake of multinational profits and nor should it have been driven by these corporations and without any strategic security oversight by European nations. Military spending dropped to farcical levels. Germany's exposure to Russia was obvious ten years ago and only deepened after 2014 even after it became clear that Putin's ambitions were greater than his actual mandate. The behavior of atheist Chancellors like Gerhard Schoeder who sold their souls for private enrichment and who have behaved without honor is despicable. Olaf Scholz has rightly distanced himself from this man. But both Russia and China have used the benefits of Western trade to modernize their economies and vamp up their militaries with profits without conducting any serious political reforms. The strategy of empowering autocracies over democracies is not something that will ultimately benefit the West or the wider world. The sanctions imposed on Russia could equally be imposed on China if they invade Taiwan and send a clear message of the economic degradation that could then occur. The Chinese communist party is already riding a tiger and depends on continued economic growth for its survival. If the growth stops it is in major trouble and its more traditional civil strife and warlord kingdoms may well return to plague its unity. Even if China could take Taiwan the cost might yet still be too high for them.

I agree. One of the problems with a massive military is that it has to be paid for, managed and maintained. That has hindered Russia. They could not afford flying time for training pilots and they cannot afford stand off weapons for their aircraft. That's a recipe for combat losses and high civilian casualties due to the use of WW2 style munitions.

The conceit of the West is that prosperity leads to democracy. The further conceit is that the non-democratic world wants democracy. The man in the street may, but not their overlords.

God is in control. He gets the last word. Putin, Xi, Kim, all the dictators are nothing before God.

 

[Robban]

One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.

Possible reasons for discussion:

1) POLITICAL COMPROMISE
An ex-SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom. The SPD and Green parties are vulnerable to anti-American, anti-Military, and pro-Russian sentiments that dull their instincts. The Ost-Politik strategy of rapprochement with Russia made it vulnerable to see the best in Putin's motives. Merkel spoke Russian and did nothing to prepare Germany economically or militarily for this crisis.

2) ECONOMIC EXPOSURE AND LACK OF STRATEGIC INSIGHT
The Russians owned key parts of the storage and refinery infrastructure in Germany for example. German gas storage was steadily run down over the time period before the election making them vulnerable to Russian leverage. Reuters commented on this in December. Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas despite the strategic risks. This was obvious as early as 2008 and well before 2014 Maidan yet nothing was done after Maidan.
Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's end
Germany works to cut Russian control of critical energy facilities
Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

We were discussing this vulnerability to Russian gas and Arab oil more than 10 years ago

Approaching Energy Crisis

3) EDUCATION/ THOUGHT SYSTEMS
This is the hardest factor to argue but I believe it is fundamental to the blindness of top operatives and political elites here. There is a lack of discussion in European schools on the basic assumptions of modern science for example. There is no challenge from a creationist movement here. This uniformity may make Europeans less open to challenging assumptions and checking the validity of observations. They are epistemologically blind. The Intelligence community is a product of elite schools that tow the party lines on all the assumptions of modern politics and culture. There is a lack of misfits who rub against the grain in the intelligence community because there is a built-in intolerance of such people and they are usually regarded as the problem rather than the answer. Or worse in some cases, the words of completely inappropriate people are taken over the words of those who speak the truth. This lack of wisdom is obvious to an outsider but not to the intelligence communities themselves. AntiAmericanism and European arrogance led to filtering out of strong American intelligence coming their way.

4) LACK OF FUNDING
The BND has a budget of about a billion Euros and the DGSE one of about €750m compared to American spending of more than 80 billion (Bigger than Germany's defense budget).
Also, I wonder in this current conflict if Russian agents did not actually steer the conversation away from the obvious. The agencies need reform, refunding and a systematic purge it seems.

Why did European intelligence fail to predict this war and how did Europe become so strategically vulnerable to Russia? What can be done to fix this moving forwards?

What was so wrong with Kay-Achim Schönbach's
comments?
(Navy chief)
In ground and bottom the Russian Federation wanted to be treated as equal and not as something the cat brought in.

 

[mindlight]

What was so wrong with Kay-Achim Schönbach's
comments?
(Navy chief)
In ground and bottom the Russian Federation wanted to be treated as equal and not as something the cat brought in.

He was willing to abandon NATOs East European partners and was more interested in Russian security than that of Germany. His comments during the preamble to the war were idiotic and blind to what was going on. Why should Olaf Scholz have such men guarding the security of Germany? If anything though he was not alone and there are a whole bunch of people in the German military hierarchies that need to go. We are in a new era now and only the best commanders will do.

 

[Robban]

He was willing to abandon NATOs East European partners and was more interested in Russian security than that of Germany. His comments during the preamble to the war were idiotic and blind to what was going on. Why should Olaf Scholz have such men guarding the security of Germany? If anything though he was not alone and there are a whole bunch of people in the German military hierarchies that need to go. We are in a new era now and only the best commanders will do.

You wrote" blind to what was going on".

Question is, who was and is blind?

The extreme right, call them whatever, are real,

just as real as ISIS and just as dangerous.

West and others ignore this, pretending they do not exist.

At the beginning Russia encouraged the Ukranian army to isolate these groups that have become part of National guard.

But the reverse happened,
in desparation weapons were handed out to any Tom, Dick and Harry, prisoners were let out of jail to fight,

hardly proffessional.

And the West cheered on.

 

[Gene2memE]

One of the biggest features of the preamble to war was the failure of European intelligence to predict it. This has been acknowledged by both the German Chancellor and French President in highly publicized resignations and sackings of top officials:

German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
French intelligence chief Vidaud fired over Russian war failings

Why did European intelligence fail? We were discussing this war here 3 months before the invasion?

If Russia invades the Ukraine...

The British and Americans knew about this in October and were sharing intelligence about it months ago.

France, Italy and Germany were included in the 'Five Eyes' intelligence briefings about Ukraine in October.

The split is not about intelligence services funding, epistemology, willingness to strike counter-points, or anti-Americanism (or, anti Anglo-Saxonism). It seems to me to be more about Europe's long term political ambition to normalise relationships with Russia. And possibly the unwillingness of European political appointees to unravel several decades of engagement, particularly when they've been so forgiving of other Russian transgressions (MH17, Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, etc etc).

The story out of France - at least that which has made it into the English language press - is that Vidaud was presented with several options about Russian intentions and capabilities concerning Ukraine, and chose to support the one he thought Macron wanted to hear.

The French intelligence community assessment was something along the lines of: "Yes, Russia could invade Ukraine. It has the capabilities and manpower is in place. But doing so would be stupid militarily, and hurt them politically and economically. So, they wont do it".

Thus, he gave the a politically expedient answer - We don't think Russia will invade (as doing so would be dumb) - and avoided any disfavour by being selective about which bits of the assessments he briefed politicians with.

Germany's intelligence failure I think is more one of misreading the human factors involved.

At the start of 2022, the BND was speaking to the press warning that Russia could invade Ukraine. Their assessment though was that any Russian invasion would likely be very costly, and so it probably wouldn't happen.

However, there were also couple of news articles from January that summed up Germany's political thinking as "This is just brinkmanship. This is what Putin does. He's attempting to up the stakes on the negotiations about Eastern Ukraine. He has lots of other options that are less costly than an invasion".

I think German intelligence services made a misjudgement about Putin and the information being given to him. Their assessment was that he knew how badly an invasion could go, so he wouldn't risk it. But, they may not have known that the Russian military was (apparently) telling Putin that an invasion could be done in 15 to 20 days of combat operations, at relatively little cost.

They assumed - wrongly it turned out - that Putin had a similar picture of the gain/cost benefit to their own, and thus would act in a predictable way.