The Democratic Safe House

[Arcangl86]

I've been getting really frustrated recently. Especially since the Trump followers here seem to follow his lead in mocking people they disagree with. L

 

[DaisyDay]

From The Borowitz Report:

Donald J. Trump demanded on Friday that Attorney General Jeff Sessions investigate who put a sign reading “Entering Crazytown, U.S.A.” on the door to the Oval Office....

...“Whoever put that sign on my door has committed treason against the United States,” Trump told reporters, before turning away and revealing that someone had put a Post-it reading “President Stupidpants” on his back.​

 

[Kentonio]

"
Jim Sciutto ✔ @jimsciutto
New CNN poll: Democrats advantage in generic ballot widens to 13%

CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Oct. 4-7
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Democrat Republican

Now 54% 41%
September 52% 42%

6:03 PM - Oct 9, 2018"

 

[DaisyDay]

"
Jim Sciutto ✔ @jimsciutto
New CNN poll: Democrats advantage in generic ballot widens to 13%

CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Oct. 4-7
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Democrat Republican

Now 54% 41%
September 52% 42%

6:03 PM - Oct 9, 2018"

For Congress, sure, but the Senate is still not looking so hot.

 

[Kentonio]

For Congress, sure, but the Senate is still not looking so hot.

True, although it was always a very long shot. I’m not sure what to make of the senate polling to be honest. There’s a lot of unexpected races now listed as toss ups. I think a lot is going to depend on whether there’s any more shocks between now and polling day. It still currently looks like an R win, although I’d guess a lot tighter than they’ll be comfortable with.

 

[mark46]

For Congress, sure, but the Senate is still not looking so hot.

as expected

A few months ago, it looked like the Republicans would gain 2-3 seats. I suspect that they won't meet this total. For example, Manchin seems very safe.

In any case, the Republican strategy has been to energize the Republican base, and thus make sure that the Senate stays in Republican hands. After all, lots of Democratic senators are up for re-election in very pro-Trump states. Of course, this strategy means the loss to Democrats of more House seats and perhaps more governorships (to the degree that Southern locals allow folks to vote).

 

[super animator]

For Congress, sure, but the Senate is still not looking so hot.

Given the clown circus revolving the SC appointment, it shouldn't be a surprise.

 

[DaisyDay]

Given the clown circus revolving the SC appointment, it shouldn't be a surprise.

I thought Kavanaugh was the clown.

 

[super animator]

I thought Kavanaugh was the clown.

I am not referring to Kavanaugh itself (though it appears you have an agenda against him) when I say its a clown circus.

 

[mark46]

Democrats will gain lots of House seats. The Senate is looking worse by the day. There are lots of Democratic senators running is very red states.

However, much of the money is being wasted emphasizing impeachment. Also, the Kavanaugh debacle has energized many of the Republican base. Democrats were already energized.

"“Democratic challengers outraised Republican House incumbents in 92 House districts in the last three months — a staggering mismatch that boosts the odds of a GOP washout in November,” Politico reports.

“There is no historical precedent for financing this broad and deep for congressional challengers. About half of the 92 GOP incumbents are protecting battleground districts, and some of them posted personal-record fundraising totals in the third quarter of 2018 — but they still found themselves swamped by a combination of incandescent online fundraising for Democrats and bigger donors spreading money to challengers around the country, as 61 Democrats raised over $1 million.”

Said one Republican consultant: “We’re getting our [backsides] kicked. Nothing else to say.”

https://politicalwire.com/2018/10/16/republicans-massively-out-raised-in-election-homestretch/

 

[super animator]

s.
However, much of the money is being wasted emphasizing impeachment.

Which isn't going to happen as it requires a 2/3 of the senate votes.

 

[Kentonio]

Democrats will gain lots of House seats. The Senate is looking worse by the day. There are lots of Democratic senators running is very red states.

However, much of the money is being wasted emphasizing impeachment. Also, the Kavanaugh debacle has energized many of the Republican base. Democrats were already energized.

Who is spending money emphasizing impeachments?

As for the Kavanaugh bump the Republicans got, its already fading away according to latest polling.

 

[mark46]

Tom Steyer’s $110 million plan to redefine the Democrats

There are lots of ads asking for impeachment, and a large online effort to raise money. There are better ways to use the money and effort. Also, IMHO, the ads actually help the Republicans get out their folks, since the effort shows (in their eyes) the need to vote to protect Trump.

The Kavanaugh bump will fade some with regard to House races, but not in the deeply red states where the Supreme Court will continue to be a major way to get out the Republican base in Senate races.

Who is spending money emphasizing impeachments?

As for the Kavanaugh bump the Republicans got, its already fading away according to latest polling.

 

[Kentonio]

The Kavanaugh bump will fade some with regard to House races, but not in the deeply red states where the Supreme Court will continue to be a major way to get out the Republican base in Senate races.

The latest polling in those senate races shows the bump is already pretty much gone in those red states.

 

[Kentonio]

 

[Kentonio]

Smile folks.

"CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Nov. 1-3
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Democrat 55%
Republican 42%

Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Women Men

Democrat 62% 48%
Republican 35% 49%"

 

[Kentonio]

Oh and..

"Missouri Senate poll: NBC/Marist

Claire McCaskill (D) 50%
Josh Hawley (R) 47%"

 

[mark46]

This has been an unusual cycle. Both parties are pushing increase participation by their bases. This means that there will be lots of additional Democratic votes is highly Democratic districts (this will have no effect on House races, but will be critical in races for Governor and the Senate. There will also be lots of Republican votes in very red districts, again will little affect on the House.
=====
HOWEVER, there is indeed lots of good news in individual House Districts. A gain of 40+ seats now seems likely.

Smile folks.

"CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Nov. 1-3
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Democrat 55%
Republican 42%

Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

Women Men

Democrat 62% 48%
Republican 35% 49%"

 

[mark46]

The really great news in the high numbers of early voters, especially young voters.

 

[mark kennedy]

A nice showing, at least the House might start to look into Trump's bag of tricks.