Sweden’s herd immunity experiment = highest death rate in Europe

[SoldierOfTheKing]

I'd take stats from Belarus with a grain of salt, given they are an authoritarian government that has been in firm denial over the pandemic.

...and yet, they are granting far better civil liberties to their citizens than the Western democracies. What you're doing here, is that when the evidence doesn't support your conclusion, rather that modifying your conclusion, you're simply discounting the evidence. Which you're free do, but don't pretend that your position is in any way supported by science. This is the exact opposite of how the scientific method works.

North Korea has also had great success against coronavirus, but does anyone *really* believe that?

We know very little about how the Wuhan virus is affecting North Korea; North Korea is not sharing any information.

 

[tall73]

So, my county has 575 (more than any county in Sweden) people per square mile 2,736 confirmed cases and 272 deaths, do you suppose it was a good idea to accelerate our opening before PA's guidance?

To me the county seems to be doing well on average, but I would be more cautious.

I think they have to look at a few more metrics. The counties near me were looking more at active cases than total, and at hospital capacity and ICU capacity, as that is what is trying to be maintained. Some areas with higher capacity may have a bit more flexibility.

Again, complete eradication at this point is unlikely. Even in NY with lockdown they found the majority of hospitalizations now are not among essential workers, etc. but among people who have been largely staying home due to the order. It will still find a way to spread, just more slowly.

 

[grasping the after wind]

What's the reward?

Less deaths from depression , alcoholism, domestic violence , suicide and starvation.

 

[variant]

Less deaths from depression , alcoholism, domestic violence , suicide and starvation.

People are starving to death?

I would need some quantifiable data on how many people you expect to die from those cases more so than normal under this circumstance.

 

[tall73]

People are starving to death?

Not sure about where you were at, but many in my region were really struggling because government checks were delayed, and they had no work. They were relying on charitable donations.

It was noted in national articles as well that some NY parents were foregoing eating to give food to their children. I am not in NY, so I can't verify that. But I do know in our region the churches distributed thousands of bags of food to those who needed it, with help from food suppliers, and some were still struggling because the demand was greater than the supply.

But then, our church is in a very economically blighted community to start with, and those in the area struggle even in normal times, so with this crisis, it didn't take much to push people to the edge.

 

[grasping the after wind]

People are starving to death?

That is what people tell me is happening in my country and would happen exponentially if we scaled back even a little on our generous welfare system. I expect Sweden is trying to forestall such results by trying to not ruin their economy as thoroughly as other countries have.

 

[variant]

That is what people tell me is happening in my country and would happen exponentially if we scaled back even a little on our generous welfare system. I expect Sweden is trying to forestall such results by trying to not ruin their economy as thoroughly as other countries have.

Our welfare and food delivery system seems to be in place to me.

It's possible I've missed something.

I know there were long lines at food banks and such but haven't heard of widespread cases of people starving to death.

 

[pitabread]

...and yet, they are granting far better civil liberties to their citizens than the Western democracies.

Did we just enter opposite land?

(For the record, Belarus ranked #92 out of over 160 countries on the Human Freedom Index last year.)

What you're doing here, is that when the evidence doesn't support your conclusion, rather that modifying your conclusion, you're simply discounting the evidence.

I'm suggesting taking it with a grain of salt. COVID-19 fatality rates from a country with an authoritarian government in denial of the pandemic raises my suspicions.

We know very little about how the Wuhan virus is affecting North Korea; North Korea is not sharing any information.

They claimed they had no cases. Do you believe that?

 

[rambot]

...and yet, they are granting far better civil liberties to their citizens than the Western democracies. What you're doing here, is that when the evidence doesn't support your conclusion, rather that modifying your conclusion, you're simply discounting the evidence. Which you're free do, but don't pretend that your position is in any way supported by science. This is the exact opposite of how the scientific method works.



We know very little about how the Wuhan virus is affecting North Korea; North Korea is not sharing any information.

What's the Wuhan virus?

 

[dqhall]

The March 10 CDC guidance realized that there would be considerable variation, so it allowed communities to assess the relative risk for their region and mitigate accordingly:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf

The two goals were:

The goals for using mitigation strategies in communities with local COVID-19 transmission are to slow the transmission of disease and in particular to protect:
•Individuals at increased risk for severe illness, includingolder adults and persons of any age with underlyinghealth conditions (See Appendix A)
•The healthcare and critical infrastructure workforces

In the following few days we started to see the first lockdowns.

Since then some people have perhaps shifted the mental goal to hold out for a vaccine, etc. but that was not the intent at the time. The same was true with Sweden. There was evidence of community transmission such that we could not stamp it out. We had to slow it.

South Korea worked to identify and quarantine infected people. They traced contacts and tested many. They closed schools and mass assemblies, but kept factories and businesses open. Restaurants were open, but many avoided them. They did not see their healthcare system overwhelmed.

 

[tall73]

South Korea worked to identify and quarantine infected people. They traced contacts and tested many. They closed schools and mass assemblies, but kept factories and businesses open. Restaurants were open, but many avoided them. They did not see their healthcare system overwhelmed.

Agreed. I discussed the South Korean response earlier.

But by the time the CDC guidance you quoted was issues we were past containment here. That was March 10.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Did we just enter opposite land?

(For the record, Belarus ranked #92 out of over 160 countries on the Human Freedom Index last year.)

...and yet I've cited facts showing the opposite of what the index claims. Apparently, there's something amiss about the index's methodology. It is complied by Western-based political organizations, which speaks to its bias. Countries in Eastern Europe have had serious problems with organizations like this serving as cover for foreign interference in their internal affairs.

I'm suggesting taking it with a grain of salt. COVID-19 fatality rates from a country with an authoritarian government in denial of the pandemic raises my suspicions.

There's no reason why it should. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of the numbers.

They claimed they had no cases. Do you believe that?

Of course not. But that just goes to show that the two are not remotely comparable. Belarus publicly releases its data.

What's the Wuhan virus?

The one that originated in Wuhan, China. Also colloquially known as the "Kung Flu".

 

[pitabread]

...and yet I've cited facts showing the opposite of what the index claims.

Where?

There's no reason why it should. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of the numbers.

How do you know that?

 

[solid_core]

South Korea worked to identify and quarantine infected people. They traced contacts and tested many. They closed schools and mass assemblies, but kept factories and businesses open. Restaurants were open, but many avoided them. They did not see their healthcare system overwhelmed.

Thats nice, but its not possible in western countries. We love our freedom and privacy. Would you give to your gov all your movement and contact records?

Asians have a different, more herd culture. We are individualistic, we must find our own, Euro/American way how to deal with it.

Some countries in the EU are quite successuful, I would get the inspiration there. Slovakia, Poland, Czechia, Norway, Hungary, Finland etc, these countries got the virus under the control quite quickly.

 

[KCfromNC]

If they're trying for herd immunity, then they have to expect a high death rate. That's not really a backfire. The backfire will be if the antibodies are insufficient and not long lasting enough to provide herd immunity.

Or if a vaccine or effective treatment is developed between when they achieve herd immunity and the rest of the developed world does.

 

[dqhall]

Where is that number coming from though?

The link in the article for the alleged source just links to a heat map with no actual numerical data in it. And that heat map shows a higher rate for Spain than Sweden.

edited to add:

I found another article that states the following:

Scandinavia’s biggest economy will shrink 7 per cent this year, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Tuesday. And while overall deaths are on the decline, Sweden’s had 6.25 deaths per million inhabitants per day in a rolling average between May 12 and May 19, according to Ourworldinsata.org. That was the highest in Europe on a per capita basis and just above the United Kingdom, which had 5.75 deaths per million.​

Sweden in deep economic crisis despite soft lockdown, as per capita deaths rise

If the article linked in the OP is comparing the same sort of thing, it looks like they are just looking at the recent fatality rates.

I regret posting this article as it is not well written. The US daily infection curve is relatively flat. It has been rising for two weeks. This is of little concern to a 20 yr old, except older customers avoid crowded markets and restaurants. People lost their jobs.

Bolsonaro in Brazil insisted on no sanitary measures. He described the disease as the little flu. The daily infections there seem out of control. The Washington Post reported a 30 year old nurse with asthma working in a Brazilian clinic died of the virus. Her mother worked in the same clinic, got sick, and lived.

 

[hedrick]

Bolsonaro in Brazil insisted on no sanitary measures. He described the disease as the little flu. The daily infections there seem out of control. The Washington Post reported a 30 year old nurse with asthma working in a Brazilian clinic died of the virus. Her mother worked in the same clinic, got sick, and lived.

As in the US, some states have imposed some precautions. Maybe too late.

 

[RDKirk]

If they're trying for herd immunity, then they have to expect a high death rate. That's not really a backfire. The backfire will be if the antibodies are insufficient and not long lasting enough to provide herd immunity.

No satisfactory method of herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine.

 

[RDKirk]

I'd take stats from Belarus with a grain of salt, given they are an authoritarian government that has been in firm denial over the pandemic.

North Korea has also had great success against coronavirus, but does anyone *really* believe that?

As tightly as North Korea controls their population movement, maybe so.

 

[dqhall]

No satisfactory method of herd immunity can be achieved without a vaccine.

It took over 10 years to get an Ebola vaccine. There is no HIV or Hepatitis C vaccine. There is a Hepatitis A vaccine that is 95% effective. Small pox, measles, polio and tetanus have been conquered by vaccine usage.

They have been talking about an Oxford U. vaccine potentially available in Sept. Others said 18 months at the earliest.