Sweden’s herd immunity experiment = highest death rate in Europe

[variant]

Facts:
- Sweden's death rate is the 8th worst in Europe.

- Sweden's total cases for 1M is the 16th worst in Europe.

- Europe has 48 countries.

Conclusion:
Sweden is not doing well or successfully, but its not the worst of all.

Source:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 5,372,257 Cases and 342,623 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Given their remoteness and low population density their experiment is nothing to write home about.

 

[tall73]

What's the reward?

If the economy is better as a result, and they can still maintain medical capacity, then per their goals, that is the reward.

That is if there is not Antibody dependent enhancement in the next wave, and if there is no effective therapeutic discovered in the next few months that would make taking the hit early a bad move in retrospect.

The point of flattening the curve was always to maintain capacity, and that has been the goal of the program.

 

[tall73]

If it was really 7.3% at the end of April, they seem to think some kind of magic happened between then and now.

Here is reporting from another outlet that may give some insight, or may be more spin:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us

Stockholm had the highest proportion of positive results, which was as expected given that the region has had the highest number of confirmed cases and deaths due to coronavirus. In Skåne, 4.2 percent of samples were positive, compared to 3.7 percent in Västra Götaland.

Although these samples were taken at the end of April, the Public Health Agency said: "The numbers reflect the state of the epidemic earlier in April, as it takes a few weeks for the body's immune system to develop antibodies."

"We aren't at seven percent [infection rate in Stockholm] now. It was seven percent around week 15, so that is quite a long time ago. These people were immune in week 18 [the week ending May 3rd], that means they fell ill at some point in week 14 or 15. We are somewhere around 20 percent plus in Stockholm now," Tegnell told journalists at the press conference.

 

[variant]

If the economy is better as a result, and they can still maintain medical capacity, then per their goals, that is the reward.

That is if there is not Antibody dependent enhancement in the next wave, and if there is no effective therapeutic discovered in the next few months that would make taking the hit early a bad move in retrospect.

The point of flattening the curve was always to maintain capacity, and that has been the goal of the program.

Are they actually getting that result?
Sweden unlikely to feel economic benefit of no-lockdown approach | Free to read

 

[tall73]

Are they actually getting that result?
Sweden unlikely to feel economic benefit of no-lockdown approach | Free to read

I have seen some indication they are not in other threads. But the plan is not the result, it is just the plan. I am stating their goal, not their results.

 

[variant]

I have seen some indication they are not in other threads. But the plan is not the result, it is just the plan. I am stating their goal, not their results.

Risk reward calculations depend on how well you can predict the outcome of your actions.

 

[tall73]

Risk reward calculations depend on how well you can predict the outcome of your actions.

Sure, but that is what all nations did with their response. The variety in them may give results that determine the best models in the future. But you can't undo the past.

It remains to be seen whether the economic results will pan out. However, they have maintained relatively high confidence of the public, and have avoided the sorts of tension we see in the USA by making distancing measures voluntary. They don't have rebellions against the measures, or police going a bit overboard, since it is appealing rather than demanding.

They have also continued their school year, and even if there is economic slowdown, they may be preserving more jobs by not having full shutdowns.

If the medical capacity is sufficient, that may work out.

Other articles have noted their biggest failing was in not protecting the nursing homes enough, which they are now working on. So they may see declines just from that.

 

[variant]

Sure, but that is what all nations did with their response. The variety in them may give results that determine the best models in the future. But you can't undo the past.

It remains to be seen whether the economic results will pan out. However, they have maintained relatively high confidence of the public, and have avoided the sorts of tension we see in the USA by making distancing measures voluntary. They don't have rebellions against the measures, or police going a bit overboard, since it is appealing rather than demanding.

They have also continued their school year, and even if there is economic slowdown, they may be preserving more jobs by not having full shutdowns.

If the medical capacity is sufficient, that may work out.

I don't think a model that "might" workout for Sweden would work out for New York City. I think using that model in a densely populated place is a recipe for a catastrophe.

Sweden 24 people per square mile
New York City 26,403 people per square mile

 

[tall73]

I don't think a model that "might" workout for Sweden would work out for New York City. I think using that model in a densely populated place is a recipe for a catastrophe.

Did the article claim it would? They evaluated for their situation.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, but the Sweden curve seems to show declining deaths:

 

[variant]

Did the article claim it would? They evaluated for their situation.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, but the Sweden curve seems to show declining deaths:

View attachment 277506

If I were looking at models I would be looking at Japan and South Korea that are both very densely populated and doing well.

 

[tall73]

Sweden 24 people per square mile
New York City 26,403 people per square mile

Those participating in the thread that compared the US and Australian response had a conversation on density. But it only accounts for part of the problem. Japan and South Korea also have very high density, but different outcomes.

Each area has its own challenges. And a number of the factors are not clear yet.

EDIT, was typing as you responded with a similar thought.

 

[tall73]

Yes, they have high density. I think in NY's case the problem was early undetected community spread, and the delay in testing. Japan and South Korea had early cases, and some early spread, but they were mainly getting it from Wuhan and were able to trace it. Italy and Europe did not realize their spread until too late, and the mutation data shows that NY got most of its cases from there.

Early on around half of South Korea's community spread was in the church organization that they used measures we might be uncomfortable with to address, bringing legal action and seizing their membership records.

 

[variant]

Those participating in the thread that compared the US and Australian response had a conversation on density. But it only accounts for part of the problem. Japan and South Korea also have very high density, but different outcomes.

Each area has its own challenges. And a number of the factors are not clear yet.

EDIT, was typing as you responded with a similar thought.

I think it's pretty clear just from understanding infectious diseases in general that how close together people are is going to be important.

Sweden model might indeed be the best choice for areas with similar demographics. We'll have to see how the economics works out though. Simply having people socially distance might be detrimental to the economy whether voluntary or not.

 

[tall73]

I think it's pretty clear just from understanding infectious diseases in general that how close together people are is going to be important.

Sweden model might indeed be the best choice for areas with similar demographics. We'll have to see how the economics works out though. Simply having people socially distance might be detrimental to the economy whether voluntary or not.

Agreed, but in places like Wyoming for instance, they didn't lock down, and are mostly doing ok. It could change, and in both Sweden and Wyoming they may later regret it. But they are all calculating what they think is likely.

 

[variant]

Yes, they have high density. I think in NY's case the problem was early undetected community spread, and the delay in testing. Japan and South Korea had early cases, and some early spread, but they were mainly getting it from Wuhan and were able to trace it. Italy and Europe did not realize their spread until too late, and the mutation data shows that NY got most of its cases from there.

Early on around half of South Korea's community spread was in the church organization that they used measures we might be uncomfortable with to address, bringing legal action and seizing their membership records.

Indeed. Undetected spreading in a dense population with a delayed response and low testing is going to give you unfavorable results.

 

[variant]

Agreed, but in places like Wyoming for instance, they didn't lock down, and are mostly doing ok. It could change, and in both Sweden and Wyoming they may later regret it. But they are all calculating what they think is likely.

Wyoming has a population density of 6 people per square mile. They are already socially distancing by living there.

 

[tall73]

Wyoming has a population density of 6 people per square mile. They are already socially distancing by living there.

Which is why they went with that model!

Also it took time for the virus to make it there from the coasts, giving them more time to plan and ramp up testing.

 

[tall73]

The March 10 CDC guidance realized that there would be considerable variation, so it allowed communities to assess the relative risk for their region and mitigate accordingly:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community-mitigation-strategy.pdf

The two goals were:

The goals for using mitigation strategies in communities with local COVID-19 transmission are to slow the transmission of disease and in particular to protect:
•Individuals at increased risk for severe illness, includingolder adults and persons of any age with underlyinghealth conditions (See Appendix A)
•The healthcare and critical infrastructure workforces

In the following few days we started to see the first lockdowns.

Since then some people have perhaps shifted the mental goal to hold out for a vaccine, etc. but that was not the intent at the time. The same was true with Sweden. There was evidence of community transmission such that we could not stamp it out. We had to slow it.

 

[grasping the after wind]

Sweden opted out of social distancing, closures and face masks. Their death rate is twice the US COVID-19 death rate.

'The price you pay': Sweden's 'herd immunity' experiment backfires

So how many people will now say they never claimed Sweden was socialist?

 

[variant]

Which is why they went with that model!

Also it took time for the virus to make it there from the coasts, giving them more time to plan and ramp up testing.

So, my county has 575 (more than any county in Sweden) people per square mile 2,736 confirmed cases and 272 deaths, do you suppose it was a good idea to accelerate our opening before PA's guidance?

To me the county seems to be doing well on average, but I would be more cautious.