Surprise!!! Jeb Bush endorses Ted Cruz

[NightHawkeye]

Exactly.

As an FYI ...
Why Jeb Bush Endorsed Ted Cruz | Time

Jeb Bush endorsed Ted Cruz Wednesday morning in hopes of uniting the GOP behind its best chance of stopping Donald Trump. On Tuesday, Cruz won the Utah caucuses by a 50-point margin awarding him all 40 delegates, enough to give anti-Trump forces hope they could stop the front-runner from reaching the required 1,237 delegates to win the nomination. Cruz faces a near-impossible path to the nomination outright, while John Kasich has long been mathematically incapable of reaching the target by the convention, while Trump must win about 52% of the remaining delegates. Keeping him from that is will be difficult, but for the first time the anti-Trump forces are feeling hope. As a sign of growing consolidation behind him, Cruz also won the backing of the conservative Club for Growth Wednesday, with more Establishment supporters expected to sign on in the coming days.

The GOP race enters a spring break, with just 42 pledged delegates awarded on April 5 in Wisconsin before New York’s primary on April 19.​

 

[mark46]

Bush's endorsement is NOT about who would hurt the Republican establishment most. It is about the clear and present danger to the US of having Trump as a candidate for president.

Also, taking such a position now is about the future of the Republican Party.
If Cruz gets the nomination, then the Party can continue as we know it, albeit with a split between Reaganites and those who follow Cruz and his principles. The so-called establishment Republicans would support Cruz in the general election. That's the best Bush can hope for.

The alternative of Trump getting the nomination would require further decisions by many Republicans. The new Trump Republican Party would not be acceptable to many, many Republicans. In fact, Trump doesn't really want them. The Bush's and Ryan's of the world would have severe decisions to make.

 

[mark46]

As an FYI ...
Why Jeb Bush Endorsed Ted Cruz | Time

Jeb Bush endorsed Ted Cruz Wednesday morning in hopes of uniting the GOP behind its best chance of stopping Donald Trump. On Tuesday, Cruz won the Utah caucuses by a 50-point margin awarding him all 40 delegates, enough to give anti-Trump forces hope they could stop the front-runner from reaching the required 1,237 delegates to win the nomination. Cruz faces a near-impossible path to the nomination outright, while John Kasich has long been mathematically incapable of reaching the target by the convention, while Trump must win about 52% of the remaining delegates. Keeping him from that is will be difficult, but for the first time the anti-Trump forces are feeling hope. As a sign of growing consolidation behind him, Cruz also won the backing of the conservative Club for Growth Wednesday, with more Establishment supporters expected to sign on in the coming days.

The GOP race enters a spring break, with just 42 pledged delegates awarded on April 5 in Wisconsin before New York’s primary on April 19.​

I've seen several projections, all with Trump getting more than 1150 delegates, many with Trump getting over 1237. The open question is how many of the opposing delegates Trump could win on the second ballot. After all, there are lots of those votes. Some are uncommitted delegates. Some are committed on the first ballot to those who have already left the race. For Cruz or Kasich to win, Trump would need to be held to very, very of these votes. Trump would be in the position of offering a lot to the few delegates he is likely to need.

I see Trump in a similar position to Ford in 1976. Ford needed a few votes to go over the top. Ford's folks made enough promises to get the needed votes.
Ford won on the first ballot over Reagan. This time it MIGHT take a second ballot, or not.

 

[NightHawkeye]

I've seen several projections, all with Trump getting more than 1150 delegates, many with Trump getting over 1237. The open question is how many of the opposing delegates Trump could win on the second ballot. After all, there are lots of those votes. Some are uncommitted delegates. Some are committed on the first ballot to those who have already left the race. For Cruz or Kasich to win, Trump would need to be held to very, very of these votes. Trump would be in the position of offering a lot to the few delegates he is likely to need.

I see Trump in a similar position to Ford in 1976. Ford needed a few votes to go over the top. Ford's folks made enough promises to get the needed votes.
Ford won on the first ballot over Reagan. This time it MIGHT take a second ballot, or not.

One of the interesting aspects about how the current election process has played out is the movement of support over time; not just as Cruz's support has increased as other contenders dropped out, but Trump's support appears to have changed somewhat as well. Trump's base of support has remained, at best, relatively stable over time. The several contests where Cruz won the vote on election day but lost the election because of early voting may indicate erosion in Trump's base of support. If the latter is the case then it becomes easy to believe that delegate support at the convention can similarly erode once the hard pledges have been fulfilled. Many delegates, after all, are often simply the party faithful enjoying the trip to the convention who had no real plans to deviate from their pledges ... but who will quickly do so as soon as they are allowed to.

 

[brinny]

As an FYI ...
Why Jeb Bush Endorsed Ted Cruz | Time

Jeb Bush endorsed Ted Cruz Wednesday morning in hopes of uniting the GOP behind its best chance of stopping Donald Trump. On Tuesday, Cruz won the Utah caucuses by a 50-point margin awarding him all 40 delegates, enough to give anti-Trump forces hope they could stop the front-runner from reaching the required 1,237 delegates to win the nomination. Cruz faces a near-impossible path to the nomination outright, while John Kasich has long been mathematically incapable of reaching the target by the convention, while Trump must win about 52% of the remaining delegates. Keeping him from that is will be difficult, but for the first time the anti-Trump forces are feeling hope. As a sign of growing consolidation behind him, Cruz also won the backing of the conservative Club for Growth Wednesday, with more Establishment supporters expected to sign on in the coming days.

The GOP race enters a spring break, with just 42 pledged delegates awarded on April 5 in Wisconsin before New York’s primary on April 19.​

Thank you.

However, have you given some thought as to why Jeb and Co. (and so many others) are opposed to the Donald?

 

[Fantine]

Possibly coincidental ... the latest Fox News poll shows statistical tie between Trump and Cruz. Kasich's brief surge in support appears to be collapsing in favor of Ted Cruz.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Trump - 41%
Cruz - 38%
Kasich - 17%

It is hard to believe that the only sensible Republicans in the country (the 17% who support Kasich) would completely abandon logic and common sense to vote for Cruz. When you've swallowed a deadly poison, you don't take arsenic as an antidote.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Thank you.

However, have you given some thought as to why Jeb and Co. (and so many others) are opposed to the Donald?

Should the motivations for Jeb Bush concern me greatly?

 

[brinny]

Should the motivations for Jeb Bush concern me greatly?

hahaaaa

well he IS supporting Ted Cruz, isn't he?

 

[TLK Valentine]

Thank you.

However, have you given some thought as to why Jeb and Co. (and so many others) are opposed to the Donald?

Because The Donald is an insufferably obnoxious narcissistic twit who has embraced conservative values since last Tuesday?