Predict the Democratic nominee for President

[gaara4158]

Bernie Sanders believes only grassroots (whatever they are) should donate money to political parties. On his campaign website, there is a chart that shows only Donald Trump has more donations so far. How is a candidate who gets the more donations than any other Democrat being outspent?

And I have to say this. How is it people are saying the candidate with the most votes is being beat?

 

[GodLovesCats]

And I have to say this. How is it people are saying the candidate with the most votes is being beat?

Let me know when two small states decide the winner of a national election.

 

[gaara4158]

Let me know when two small states decide the winner of a national election.

They’re certainly framing the narrative for “centrists” to latch on to.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Circle this date on your calendar: the one that we get every four years. We will learn a lot that night.

 

[gaara4158]

That date has been circled on my calendar since 2016.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Really? I did not know there is an election at the end of February.

Let me guess: You live in South Carolina. Or are you a 29er?

 

[GodLovesCats]

After all that talk about Joe Biden having a good chance in Nevada because of its Latino population Bernie Sanders got a big lead in the demographic.

Polling Shows Sanders Extending Lead Among Hispanics Ahead of Nevada Caucuses

 

[GodLovesCats]

Is South Carolina really Joe Biden's to lose?

 

[GodLovesCats]

bump

 

[mark46]

Is South Carolina really Joe Biden's to lose?

yes

And yes, I live in SC.

 

[mark46]

When we have a new poll on March 4th, I suspect that Bloomberg will have lots of support.

Also, the progressives (Sanders and Warren) may be above 35%, still far form 50%, as the moderates would have 65% in that scenario.
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The 2016 primaries went is similar way for Trump and the anti-Trumpers. However. the rules were much different. In a winner-take-all state, a candidate with 35 or 40% could get all the delegates in a close race. In the Democratic party, if you get 40% of the vote, you get a bit more than 40% of the delegates. Everyone who is above 15% gets their share.

It will be interesting to see how many states the bottom tier gets delegate in on Super Tuesday. I suppose Klobuchar will come in 2nd in MN, and Warren may come in 3rd in CA, and perhaps a couple of other states.

 

[GodLovesCats]

When we have a new poll on March 4, I suspect that Bloomberg will have lots of support.

People can change their votes to Michael Bloomberg if they want to.

 

[mark46]

If I add Michael Bloomberg, people can change their votes to him.

New polls are better, since everyone will be forced to re-think.

I would note the key dates for reflection are on March 4th and then March 18th. We will have only 2 or maybe 3 viable candidates by those dates, probably 3 on March 4th and 2 on March 18th.

 

[GodLovesCats]

New polls are better, since everyone will be forced to re-think.

I would note the key dates for reflection are on March 4th and then March 18th. We will have only 2 or maybe 3 candidates by those dates, like 3 on March 4th and 2 on March 18th.

Do you want me to change the poll close date to March 18? There are still big state primaries after mine.

 

[mark46]

Nope.

I am suggesting that you do what the national pollers do (as indicate in RealClearPolitics). Open a poll on March 4th and have it close in 3 days. And do the same on March 18th. A 2day poll on March 1st and 2nd might even be interesting.

I'm not trying to make work. Obviously, we have lots of polls to look at. However, if you wish to get the pulse off this board, those are the days that matter. Maybe more dates will matter after March 18th, maybe not.

 

[GodLovesCats]

These are the Democratic presidential elections after March 17:

March 24: Georgia
March 29: Puero Rico
April 4: Alaska, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wyoming*
April 7: Wisconsin
April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Yor, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 2: Guam*, Kansas
May 5: Indiana
May 12: Nebraska, West Virginia
May 19: Kentucy, Oregon
June 2: District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 6: U.S. Virgin Islands*

*Caucus

 

[GodLovesCats]

I am suggesting that you do what the national pollers do (as indicate in RealClearPolitics). Open a poll on March 4th and have it close in 3 days. And do the same on March 18th. A 2day poll on March 1st and 2nd might even be interesting.

I'm not trying to make work. Obviously, we have lots of polls to look at. However, if you wish to get the pulse off this board, those are the days that matter. Maybe more dates will matter after March 18th, maybe not.

How about this: Close a poll whenever someone drops out.

New York obviously matters!

 

[mark46]

It's not obvious to me that New York will matter. To be clear, it makes little difference if Bloomberg wins by a couple of percentage points, or whether Sanders wins by a couple of percentage points. The delegate result would be the same, within say 5 delegates one way or the other.

The progressive vote is about 40% right now. We'll see where it ticks up, and whether it ticks up toward 60%. IMO, it is likely that Sanders will be at 40% or below in the 1/3 of the votes decided before Super Tuesday. He would then need to get much more than 50% to catch up after March 3rd.
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But yes, if the race isn't all but over on March 17th, as I expect, then April 28th will be important.

How about this: Close a poll whenever someone drops out.

New York obviously matters!

 

[GodLovesCats]

Do you realize if Michael Bloomberg is still in the race New Yorkers are going to choose between two guys from NYC? Bernie Sanders was born and raised in Brooklyn. He went to a college in Brooklyn. Donald Trump is from Queens and has always had a home in New York City until a few months ago, so it would also be interesing to see the turnout demographics.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Bernie Sanders is still chasing the last delegate in Iowa. His campaign was allowed to request a recount. I expect him to get it.