chad kincham
Well-Known Member
But your analogy is assuming one draw. One lottery. And one winner. Period. But either you still don't know how it actually works or you are ignoring the facts in the hope that they'll go away.
The lottery represents all the small 'experiments' that nature runs through every single second. And we're not looking for a winner. All we're looking for is a combination of elements that have a better survival rate than the individual elements. And then we keep those and build on them.
And what's with the 16 million? The number of possible combinations happening planetwide at any given instant would be billions upon billions. But lets go with 16 million. And say that we only get some improvement using those 1:16,000,000 odds. Even allowing for any process to occur just every second (a ridiculously long time) then according to you, we'd get a winner every 5 months. So in the time allowed (the length of time it took for life to emerge) we'd have 120,000,000 winners.
AND...as has been explained to you, if you build on even very tiny advantages, the odds drop stupendously (remember the card analogy or the Shakespeare one? They both went from longer than the universe has existed to a few days).
Even using your own figures, you are guaranteed a result. When is the penny going to drop?
First of all, it’s obvious I used the lottery as an example of how odds are computed, and did not say the lottery odds have a direct correlation to abiogenesis odds.
It was an example given because it’s obvious you have no real idea of how odds are calculated.
Secondly, the odds of abiogenesis in reality remain exactly zero, because research has proven that the compounds and chemicals needed for abiogenesis, exist in far too weak concentrations to ever bod together in the first place, in every possible prebiotic environment and scenario.
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