expos4ever
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- Oct 22, 2008
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Anecdotal. The overwhelming consensus of appropriately trained experts is that climate change is indeed human caused. Period.Not relevant? Here's another. You'd call Dr. James Hansen an expert, right? In 1988, during an interview with a Washington Post reporter, Hansen looked out the window at the West Side Highway in NYC and said that in 20 or 40 years it would be underwater. We're four years from the forty year mark of his prediction. The West Side Highway is still above water.
Now, you can say that this was an off-the-cuff prediction. Even so, it was easy to fact check this in 1988 by finding the elevation of the West Side Highway, dividing it by predicted sea level rise, and seeing how long it would take until the highway was underwater. Not difficult at all.
Now then: In 1988, would you have been critical of anyone doing the fact checking because Dr. Hansen is an expert? Are you now critical of anyone who points out this prediction by an expert was wrong? Or do we simply admit even experts can be wrong?
Obviously experts can be wrong, but the relevant question is what do we believe given the information available to us right now. And obviously, the best bet is to go with the experts.
Consider the case of smoking. Sure, the experts could be wrong. Perhaps smoking has nothing to do with cancer and heart disease. But we all know what the best choice to make is - don't smoke.
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