- Sep 4, 2005
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I voted 4-6 months.
To clarify, they shouldn't be held responsible for pre-existing trajectories due to past oversights.
However, if the trajectories haven't "changed course" by summer, they'll need to explain why their plan hasn't produced the results they were projecting.
Granted, they're coming in at a great strategic time with regards to the pandemic. With vaccinations on the rise, it'd be hard to have worse numbers in June than we have right now, as by at that point in time, there were be many folks who have a measure of natural immunity due to previous infection, and in all likelihood, we'll have a 25-35% vaccination rate by that point in time, even if the pace doesn't pick up dramatically. (in the first month, most states already have 3% of the populations vaccinated, and a handful of states are nearing 6%), which even if the pace doesn't change at all, and we say for the sake of keeping it simple, states average an additional 4% of the population getting vaccinated each month, that'd be another ~20% of the population vaccinated by June (in addition to the 3-4% that already is). But obviously, the pace is going to pick up in the next few months as the supply chains get more polished, and the logistics are more nailed down.
Just by those two factors alone, things should be looking better by June.
If we get to a place by June where even with 40% of people having immunity (either by infection or vaccination), and we still see the same daily trends in terms of new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations that we're seeing now, state and federal officials may have some explaining to do.
Some states are still getting hit hard, but others have already started trending back in the right direction with regards to many of the metrics.
For instance, my own home state of Ohio.
...and the hospitalization trends have improved quite a bit
Inpatient patient count has gone from 4404 down to 3686 (a reduction of 18%)
ICU has gone from 1071 down to 946 (a reduction of 12%)
...and it should be noted, that the 1/4 - 1/17 date range is the time we'd actually be expecting slightly more inflated numbers as that's right in the "sweet spot" for when we'd expect to see those numbers jumping due to New Years gatherings. So without the holidays, the numbers probably would've dropped by even more than 18%/12% in that time period.
To clarify, they shouldn't be held responsible for pre-existing trajectories due to past oversights.
However, if the trajectories haven't "changed course" by summer, they'll need to explain why their plan hasn't produced the results they were projecting.
Granted, they're coming in at a great strategic time with regards to the pandemic. With vaccinations on the rise, it'd be hard to have worse numbers in June than we have right now, as by at that point in time, there were be many folks who have a measure of natural immunity due to previous infection, and in all likelihood, we'll have a 25-35% vaccination rate by that point in time, even if the pace doesn't pick up dramatically. (in the first month, most states already have 3% of the populations vaccinated, and a handful of states are nearing 6%), which even if the pace doesn't change at all, and we say for the sake of keeping it simple, states average an additional 4% of the population getting vaccinated each month, that'd be another ~20% of the population vaccinated by June (in addition to the 3-4% that already is). But obviously, the pace is going to pick up in the next few months as the supply chains get more polished, and the logistics are more nailed down.
Just by those two factors alone, things should be looking better by June.
If we get to a place by June where even with 40% of people having immunity (either by infection or vaccination), and we still see the same daily trends in terms of new cases, deaths, and hospitalizations that we're seeing now, state and federal officials may have some explaining to do.
Some states are still getting hit hard, but others have already started trending back in the right direction with regards to many of the metrics.
For instance, my own home state of Ohio.
...and the hospitalization trends have improved quite a bit
Inpatient patient count has gone from 4404 down to 3686 (a reduction of 18%)
ICU has gone from 1071 down to 946 (a reduction of 12%)
...and it should be noted, that the 1/4 - 1/17 date range is the time we'd actually be expecting slightly more inflated numbers as that's right in the "sweet spot" for when we'd expect to see those numbers jumping due to New Years gatherings. So without the holidays, the numbers probably would've dropped by even more than 18%/12% in that time period.
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