How long Before Autonomous Cars are accepted on our roads?

[eclipsenow]

Over the next couple of decades over half the workforce likely to become unemployable as jobs are automated. What happens to a society with 50/60% unemployment rate?

It could be fantastic! Here is the classic essay about the end of work and the new human condition Robotic Nation, by Marshall Brain

 

[Radrook]

.... Protocol 1) to avoid the danger. If a horde of mindless zombies is heading your way, Protocol 3 would detect it and even drive more aggressively, even possibly hitting some cars on the roads if it can't be avoided, overriding Protocols 1 & 2. Once the horde of zombies are out of sight, Protocol 3 could no longer detect the scenario and switch to lower protocols like Protocol 1, normal driving resumes....

For some strange reason I keep getting the scenario in my head of some glitchy automatic car mistakenly identifying a group of Alzheimer's senior citizens who are attempting to hail it down for a ride as zombies and plowing right through them to put them out of sight per protocol 3 and then returning to protocol 1.

 

[KCfromNC]

Some companies say they could get their product road-worthy as early as *this* year, 2017.

A big-rig truck fleet driven by robots has been successfully in public roads in Europe a few years ago. Google has been testing their autonomous driver in public roads already.

I'm still thinking it is a race between Amazon and Uber to be the first to actually roll this stuff out in significant numbers. Amazon is a logistics / shipping company pretending to be a web services company pretending to be an online retailer, so it makes sense for them to cut shipping costs any way possible. Uber, well, see post 7 for an interesting view of the customer-focused side of the business.

I think that eventually there will be autonomous cars sold in large numbers to individual buyers, but the best bet for early adopters is companies rolling them out in large numbers all at once.

 

[KCfromNC]

And just think of the millions of jobs that will cease to exist, not to be replaced. As lorry drivers, taxi drivers, train drivers, pilots lose their jobs to automation.

Also think about all the jobs related to auto accidents. If self-driving cars are only 2x safer than human-driven ones, what do we do with all of the out of work insurance people, mechanics, medical workers, and so on.

Also, what happens to organ donation if we're killing 10-20 thousand fewer otherwise healthy people a year?

Then imagine that self-driving cars are 10x safer and ask the same questions.

 

[FenderTL5]

I'm not opposed to autonomous vehicles in general.
However, I am very skeptical of the claims being made on the vast reduction in traffic congestion.
Replacing a single occupancy human-driven vehicle with a single occupancy autonomous does not reduce congestion on the road, it's a wash.
This will have to be measured in 'trips' even if the number of actual vehicles in operation is reduced. Unless you reduce the number of trips, you will not reduce congestion.
e.g. in a typical household where a man and wife both work, they take separate vehicles to their differing destinations. It's two trips.
If they replace both cars with an autonomous, it still has to make the same two trips. In fact, if the same car has to return home to pick up the second rider - it would add a third trip.

The only way it reduces congestion, is to be open to more than the single occupant.
Public transit (train, bus, etc) is still more efficient in reducing congestion, imho.

 

[RDKirk]

But what about the claim that many are making that robot-cabs will drop private car ownership and the number of cars on the road 90%?

If the concept is able to take the "happy path," a person will be able to make an appointement on his cell phone for a vehicle type of his choice to appear at his curb at the time he desires to take him to the destination he desires. That kind of flexibility would definitely cause many people to forego actually owning a vehicle. Me, even.

I'd love to be able to dial for a small sedan on weekdays, a pick-up or minivan on Saturday morning, and a luxury sedan on Saturday night.

 

[RDKirk]

I'm not opposed to autonomous vehicles in general.
However, I am very skeptical of the claims being made on the vast reduction in traffic congestion.
Replacing a single occupancy human-driven vehicle with a single occupancy autonomous does not reduce congestion on the road, it's a wash.

Yes, it will. Most congestion is not because of the volume of traffic, but because of the inefficiency of the traffic flow. People slow up and speed up without consideration of how traffic in general is flowing. Most slowdowns are purely an effect of human beings making bad choices.

Even if everyone simply paid attention to Google traffic information--took the quicker routes as indicated by Google minute-by-minute, all traffic would flow more smoothly.

 

[RDKirk]

I think the biggest barrier to adoption is the buyer. No matter how safe and reliable self-driving cars are, how many people are truly prepared to take their hands off the wheel? I'm not convinced there is a real market yet - lots more work is needed to educate and convince drivers to sit back and relax.

If automated vehicles become viable within the next 20-30 years, the Boomer Generation will make them happen. As we get older and start losing our driving privileges, we will be the generation that will welcome a new means to stay independently mobile.

 

[FenderTL5]

Yes, it will. Most congestion is not because of the volume of traffic, but because of the inefficiency of the traffic flow. People slow up and speed up without consideration of how traffic in general is flowing. Most slowdowns are purely an effect of human beings making bad choices.

Even if everyone simply paid attention to Google traffic information--took the quicker routes as indicated by Google minute-by-minute, all traffic would flow more smoothly.

Maybe, I remain skeptical that it will make that much of a difference.
It reminds me of a local issue where pedal taverns were recently prohibited from operating during certain hours - as if - a pedal tavern on Lower Broadway was the reason traffic is congested.

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

There are still concerns which hinder the usage of such a vehicle. But it definitely would be neat to just get into the car, punch in the destination and sit back and relax as we are taken to our destination just as we do on a subway train or on a bus.

Autonomous car - Wikipedia

Well, here is one prediction:

Aren't they already accepted on the road legally, to some extent?

 

[TagliatelliMonster]

The beast's transportation system is already being implanted in human being's minds and as if it is a good thing/ way of life/ helpful....

It has been planned for decades... and is right on time.

Right, right....
Machines are from the devil.

That's what they said about the internet as well. And likely about credit cards and ATM machines before that.

 

[Radrook]

Aren't they already accepted on the road legally, to some extent?

Yes it does seem that way.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/29/states-driverless-cars/2595613/

It's not going to be as easy as some might imagine it to be. Humans are unpredictable and are capable of knowing when traffic rules can be bent. These cars are totally rule-based and that sets up an inevitable conflict.
What's keeping driverless cars off the road? Human drivers bending the rules

 

[RDKirk]

Yes it does seem that way.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/29/states-driverless-cars/2595613/

It's not going to be as easy as some might imagine it to be. Humans are unpredictable and are capable of knowing when traffic rules can be bent. These cars are totally rule-based and that sets up an inevitable conflict.
What's keeping driverless cars off the road? Human drivers bending the rules

I suspect the insurance companies are going to break that tie.

Automated vehicles will be insured by business insurance companies. Manually controlled vehicles will continue to be insured by individual insurance.

When an accident occurs, regardless which insurance company pays initially, the two companies are going to court behind the scenes to "subrogate" who was really at fault and one company will make restitution to the other on that basis.

What's going to happen is that the vast majority of the time it will be the human who is found at fault (because it will be easy to prove there was no mechanical failure most of the time), and the insurers of the humans will be paying big, big bucks for every accident.

It will be by insurance statistics that humans are found to be the major cost risk, and the insurance companies will charge a fee for the privilege of controlling your own vehicle.

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

Exactly what is written which implicates the inherent evil of using automated cars?

See Galatians PDF Wuest Expanded Greek ,
Key Word "pernicious".
It is not an easy read, but is very accurate Biblically re Galatians,
and describes in fierce , gruesome, sordid, detail what is written
about , "haha", 'automated cars' (the operating system(of humankind) )
and
what ekklesia are saved from.

 

[Radrook]

I suspect the insurance companies are going to break that tie.

Automated vehicles will be insured by business insurance companies. Manually controlled vehicles will continue to be insured by individual insurance.

When an accident occurs, regardless which insurance company pays initially, the two companies are going to court behind the scenes to "subrogate" who was really at fault and one company will make restitution to the other on that basis.

What's going to happen is that the vast majority of the time it will be the human who is found at fault (because it will be easy to prove there was no mechanical failure most of the time), and the insurers of the humans will be paying big, big bucks for every accident.

It will be by insurance statistics that humans are found to be the major cost risk, and the insurance companies will charge a fee for the privilege of controlling your own vehicle.

Judging by how irrationally berserk many humans become once they find themselves behind the wheel, I imagine that it will be a very brisk business for insurance companies backing the automatic cars.

BTW
A woman who plowed into my car and tried to force it along with me and my entire family into a nearby cemetery plot told the judge that she had done so because I had tried to get past her. The trouble was that she was not supposed to cross those double yellow lines towards the right and I had the right of way.

Ummm! She lost the case.

So that type of irrationality will indeed cause those automatic cars trouble.

 

[CrystalDragon]

I think they already have some driverless cars on the road in California, it's just a matter of perfecting the technology.

Personally, I don't drive, so I'm actually excited for it to be perfected so then I won't have to ask people to drive me places.

 

[Radrook]

I think they already have some driverless cars on the road in California, it's just a matter of perfecting the technology.

Personally, I don't drive, so I'm actually excited for it to be perfected so then I won't have to ask people to drive me places.

Ever see the film Total Recall where Arnold Schwarzenegger gets into this robotically-controlled taxi-cab and communication difficulties ensue? Arnold kept telling it to stop and the robot in charge kept responding in a Pee Wee Herman voice that it recognized no such destination. It responded the same way to the profanities that Arnold then hurled at it.

"Those destinations aren't on my data bank sir! Care to specify another?"

 

[CrystalDragon]

Ever see the film Total Recall where Arnold Schwarzenegger gets into this robotically-controlled taxi-cab and communication difficulties ensue? he kept telling it to stop and the robot in charge kept responding in a pee Wee Herman voice that it recognized no such destination. It responded the same what with the profanities that Arnold then hurled at it.

"Those destinations aren't on my data bank sir! Care to specify another?"

I saw that movie! Been a while, but I saw it! You have a point though, that is one thing that has me nervous about self-driving cars, because technology can fail.

 

[timewerx]

I think that eventually there will be autonomous cars sold in large numbers to individual buyers, but the best bet for early adopters is companies rolling them out in large numbers all at once.

Actually, some of the autonomous driving package are "bolt-on" devices.

I'm not sure if that is a stop-gap measure but modern cars are relatively easy to automate. Many cars today for example use electrically-powered control like electrical power-assist steering, electronic throttle and braking.

Many of the cars that use active electronic stability systems + electric steering could be directly hooked up to a driving computer will little modification.

It would be harder/more expensive to automate cars older than 2010. But anything newer is pretty easy.

 

[timewerx]

For some strange reason I keep getting the scenario in my head of some glitchy automatic car mistakenly identifying a group of Alzheimer's senior citizens who are attempting to hail it down for a ride as zombies and plowing right through them to put them out of sight per protocol 3 and then returning to protocol 1.

So try not to act like zombie! It's just an example!

Protocol 3 would probably for scenarios like a trailer truck spilling its deadly cargo of tons of steel tubes right in front of you - scenarios that require split second decisions....

It's a very sloppy design I tell you if the the contingency in such scenario is for the computer to beg the user to take over..... By the time the human user sizes up the situation it is far too late.... There is really no choice but to have the computer perform some very risky maneuvers in such situations if required to.

It's understandable that a computer cannot violate its programmed rules but there is a way around that by using multiple protocols with each having its own set of rules. Each protocol may act independently of the others if that protocol is activated by certain conditions.

This system could actually be simulated even in Microsoft Excel (but purely for demonstration purposes only) and results to a much smarter driving machine.